Very disappointing day - was on the "right" horse, they just didn't get to the wire first.....can't win them all, on to Friday!
1st Maiden Claiming 8 furlongs
Duchess of Doom might slip by the bettors today and offer fair value as she is stepping up from bottom level maidens to today’s mid-level price tag. What makes her appealing is that she goes first off the claim for Team Calabrese. This may not be so obvious to the casual handicapper either, as the trainer of listing is the fourth (by my count) that is conditioning Calabrese runners at the Tropical meeting. But, Marcus Vitali has the same extraordinary numbers as all Calabrese trainers. With Paco Lopez up, she looks like a strong contender in spite of the step up in class. Reba’s Affair has been the trip two back for a notch better – though it was originally slated for the turf, and the turf class conditions don’t match to the dirt conditions on a dollar-for-dollar amount. She looks to be right on or stalking the leaders throughout, and is a likely win contender as well. Blake’s Lucky Penny has also been 2nd at this trip, and also for a notch higher – though, unlike Reba, her race was originally carded for the main, so she may hold a slight edge there.
Selections
Duchess of Doom – Reba’s Affair – Blake’s Lucky Penny
The Bet: $5 to win on Duchess of Doom
2nd Claiming nw2l 5 ½ furlongs
Sculptor is drawn towards the inside, goes turf-to-dirt, and drops from $25K 2L to today’s $10K 2L level. He dueled on a :21.1 / 44.3 pace in that turf sprint which should set him up to break on top and never look back in here today. Looks clear on any of his best efforts. Yes It’s Dan drops out of a KEY race that saw the winner, Tintim for Tintim repeat as an obvious choice over the weekend. He has a close-up stalking style and unites again with Luis Saez. He is the most logical threat to the top one if he weakens late. Macho’s Wildcat will be flying late as the lone confirmed closer in the field. His chances are tied directly to the amount of pace pressure Sculptor is exposed to.
Selections
Sculptor – Yes It’s Dan – Macho’s Wildcat
The Bet: $10 to win on Sculptor
3rd Maiden Claiming 8 furlongs
Sargas gets the nod is a real toss-up. Two-year-olds going a mile, most for the first time routing, and at the bottom of the maiden-claiming barrel….good luck! Sargas is bred for the distance and was buried in his sprint debut, ensuring an honest price today. Her connections score a solid 19% with 2nd time starters, earning an impressive $2.01 ROI. They are even better with stretch-outs, winning again at 19% but with a $2.43 ROI. At a price today! Lazy Dynamite and Rachel’s Girl renew their rivalry today. Two back Lazy was narrowly beaten going today’s 1 mile distance, but faltered to the closing Rachel in their last going 1 mile and 70 yards. It’s hard to separate the two of them – but this race looks more like a chaos race than a formful event.
Selections
Sargas – Lazy Dynamite – Rachel’s Girl
The Bet: PASS
4th Maiden Claiming 8 furlongs – TURF
Lawnswood was coming off an 11 month break when going two-turns on the grass. In spite of the obvious short conditioning he DUELED on the lead into the stretch and was in front with a 16th to go before surrendering to be beaten less than 3 ½ lengths. With a race under his belt, the inside post, and an apparent lack of pace rivals he’s the pick to reverse the finishing order on two rivals from that race that return today……..Both Icy Strait and In For A Song closed willingly into the contested pace aforementioned. Icy Strait Icy Strait
Selections
Lawnswood – In For A Song – Icy Strait
The Bet: $5 to win on Lawnswood
5th Claiming nw2L 1 mile / 70 yards
A field of 10 with a combined record of 10 for 146 – yikes! Classic “HOT DOG” race – grab a bite to eat and enjoy watching the pageantry of thoroughbred racing knowing you did NOT lose a bet when you pass here! Good luck if you try to force the issue, but if you are so inclined……..Fabulous Frontier closed strongly from far, far back to get second going a flat mile. You could talk yourself into believing the extra 70 yards might help him improve his 15/1-3-0 record! Beaten not once, not twice, but FIVE times as the favorite you COULD make yourself believe that Givemethirtydays will get the job done today. His five runner-up finishes only further illustrate his reluctance to want to finish ahead of any rival – so if he wins, it will be without me. Puchador was nowhere to be found in his last, but if you go back two additional races you’ll find a pace pressing, drawing-off victory – albeit against bottom maidens – going two turns. Forgive the first try against winners when also experimenting with turf, and perhaps give him a pass on his last for the quick (nine day) turnaround, and you might be able to persuade someone to go in on the investment with you.
Selections
Fabulous frontier – Givemethirtydays – Puchador
The Bet: PASS
6th Maiden Claiming 5 ½ furlongs
Uno’s Wild Angel is the classic “Early Speed/Class Drop” angle having shown speed for four furlongs in a turf route in her last. Today she drops in for a tag, and turns back to sprinting on the main. Shee gets Elvis Trujillo on board, who’s making his first winter appearance. Trujillo
Selections
Uno’s Wild Angel – Gator Goddess – Liz Ruler
The Bet: PASS
7th Allowance 6 furlongs
Cristal Jak is anything but a slam dunk in here, yet she’ll probably be bet down to odds-on based on her runner-up finish to Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Filly champion Awesome Feather three back. Handicappers should instead focus on the two efforts since then and ask themselves “what happened?” I you are able to reconcile that those two races are aberrations and she is more likely to revert to the back-to-back 70s Beyers from mid-August, then she should be a handy winner. If you are looking for an alternative, you could do worse than Ridge Kitten. Kitten has improved her Beyer in EVERY one of her six starts. Her most recent start – in stakes company – earned her a Beyer that would be competitive with Cristal Jak if that one is not at her very best. True Expectations was a fading 4th against Cristal Jak in her latest, but you can expect a better effort today in her third start. The experience of facing winners is now behind her and you can expect a move forward today.
Selections
Cristal Jak – Ridge Kitten – True Expectations
The Bet: $5 to win on Cristal Jak
8th Claiming nw2L 8 ½ furlongs – TURF
Father Lucey appears to be the kind of horse to go against in a 2L event as he’s faltered many times at this level and condition. But today he’s found the right mix of rivals – Father Lucey enters the gate quite simply as the fastest horse by far. On that basis alone, he should be the winner. Of course it IS a horse race and anything can happen – as evidenced by his troubled trip in his last – but barring a major issue he’s your winner. Yellena’s Vision actually outfinished the Father in their last, but it would appear that this effort is an aberration and not his typical effort. I’m willing to concede it’s possible that he’s turned the corner, but I’m not willing to bet on it. Go Joe Go ran three straight races from mid-April to mid-May that would make him a solid threat to upset the Father. However when returned from a 3 month break last August, AND dropped in price his effort was abysmal. He returns today off yet another break without anything special to point him out – BUT, a revival of his former self could make him the upset selection.
Selections
Father Lucey – Yellena’s Vision – Go Joe Go
The Bet: PASS
9th AOC 8 furlongs
The Isabella Angel has always flashed the potential for real talent, but has yet to get the black type to go with the hype. Today’s optional allowance is a stiff test, but there appears to be a lot of pace to set up her dynamic finishing kick. It’s not common to get a fair price on a HFC who won drawing off with authority in her last, but that may be the case today. Like the Todd Pletcher barn needs more talented fillies, yet today he sends out stakes-placed Hot Trip. How good might she be? Go back three and notice she was a stakes placed third when finishing behind graded stakes winners No Such Word (who won the Grade 1 Gazelle last Saturday) and Havre de Grace (who beat likely 3-year-old filly champion Blind Luck) two back. Runners typically move up when coming under Pletcher’s care, and if that’s the case, Hot Trip could be a handful today. Just Plain Wayne is a dangerous filly as well. She has been facing much lesser, but today she is first off the claim by Nick Canani for Frank Calabrese. These two have been deadly all year with moving up horses; I’d be really disappointed to miss a price score on this powerful angle, but she looks like she’s over her head in her today.
Selections
The Isabella Angel – Hot Trip – Just Plain Wayne
The Bet: PASS
10th Maiden Claiming 5 furlongs
The Right Button has been right up on the pace in her last two trips to the post in spite of being marooned in post 9 and 11 for those races. Today she gets the rail and could easily find herself long gone with the short run to the turn. Dangerous in here. Miss Richeneeka has shown little in her two starts to date, but she is the lone class dropper today, and that alone makes her an upset threat. La Plebe was a late-running 4th vs. this level going two turns, and has shown closing ability in routes vs. better previously. The turn back may be what she needs to get her picture taken.
Selections
The Right Button – Miss Richeneeka – La Plebe
The Bet: $10 to win on The Right Button
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