Dec 23

Thursday December 23

12:25    1^st         Maiden Claiming         8 ½ furlongs                                                                                                    

It’s sad when the top rated horse has a record of 16/3-3-0.  Five Star DJ has never raced at this low of a tag, however that is a big misleading since his races are all on the grass (or were intended to be on the grass).  The cheapest tag available on turf is the lowest DJ has raced at.  But his Beyers indicate he should be competitive.  Yo Me Gusta has shot to the lead in two straight route races.  Two back, at this level he stopped badly.  But in his last he may have carried his speed much farther, but he was checked on the first turn; yet he still held second.  Maybe….. Killian’s Advice is making his third start.  He hasn’t shown anything in either start, but maybe third time is a charm and he may have some potential.

Selections

Five Star DJ – Yo Me Gusta – Killian’s Advice

The Bet:  PASS

12:51       2^nd     Claiming          6 furlongs                                                                                                                    

Gato Paso turns back from a mile effort a mere five days ago.  He’s been running in starter allowance company in his last four starts;  Five back he ran at this $5K level and won going away.  If he’s able to overcome the short runaround and the turn back he could be a handful.  Doctor Garrett is targeting the lead – he’s had starting gate issues, but when breaking sharply he is very quick.  Though he has a tendency to tire late, he has gotten brave at this level before.  Great Blade is much more lightly raced that most in here, and has been at a level or two above this most of the time.  With two wins at the distance and four here at Calder he does know his way to the winner’s circle.

Selections

Gato Paso – Doctor Garrett – Great Blad

The Bet:  $5 to win on Gato Paso

1:18         3^rd     Claiming nw2L                        6 ½ furlongs                                                                                                       

Grand Black Jak is one for seventeen, and has been beaten at the 2L level – like ALL of his competitors in here – BUT he has one angle going for him ….. he has been somewhat competitive AND he was facing his competition on the tougher NYRA circuit.  The thinking is he’ll find the 2L rivals here in South Florida a bit softer.  Cassidys Jet just broke his maiden, but he’s only been out seven times, and has yet to lose to 2L rivals.  Brown Feather has nearly paired his last two Beyers.  He was a maiden winner at Mountaineer two back, drawing off at 5 furlongs;  in his last he looked clear and on his way to a second straight before just failing to last at 7 furlongs.  Today he splits the difference at 6 furlongs.  Maybe…..

Selections

Grand Black Jak – Cassidys Jet – Brown Feather

The Bet:  PASS

1:45         4^th     Starter Allowance        1 mile / 70 yards                                                                                             

Usain Again is an inconsistent sort on occasion, but in two of his last three he’s run upper 80 Beyers; three back scoring against this type at a nice 6/1.  If today he feels like running, he can spring the upset again.  Several of the logical contenders have all run against each other, sharing Beyers which I think inflate their abilities.  One such runner for  example is The Braveheart.  He earned a career best 88 Beyer in his last.  Out of that race the third place finisher Atlantic Paws came back this weekend as the 3/2 favorite, and was all out to get third while earning a more realistic Beyer of 67.  Coach Gravy was a runaway winner by a widening 12 lengths.  Off that effort he was claimed, and is dropped in class today.  If able to replicate that effort he would be tough to deny – and that runaway win may have been due to the sloppy conditions.  Similar track conditions today would make him a serious threat today!

Selections

Usain Again – The Braveheart – Coach Gravy

The Bet:  $5 to win on Usain Again

IF the track is sloppy - $10 to win on Coach Gravy

2:13         5^th     Starter Allowance        5 ½ furlong                                                                                                     

Lesson Learned just missed in first trip over the Calder surface.  Should be right there again today – looks hard to deny at this shorter distance.  I’m A Playboy the speed of the speed, and quality speed at that.  Dangerous at the short distance with the inside post.  Can’t let him loose, even though he usually backs up.  Hard to back Motin, even though he’s as honest as they come….on the board 10 of 12 starts.  But ONE lone win of those 10…..ouch.

Selections

Lesson Learned – I’m A Playboy – Motin

The Bet:  $5 to win on Lesson Learned

2:40         6^th     Maiden Claiming         7 furlongs                                                                                                        

Sheriff Bullock just the tip of the iceberg as we head to the peak of the winter season – Eddie Kenally trained runner gets top national rider Julian Leparoux in the irons today; drops from Maiden Specials at Churchill.  May go overlooked by many who will focus on more the local horses with the numbers – but they all have issues.  Wildcat Formation the speed of the speed and dangerous if left to set a leisurely pace; hard to imagine he could return in five days for a new barn and be able to set sprint-like fractions from gate to wire however.  Missing Edward also first off the claim, and from potent out-of-town connections might be good enough on the drop today.

Selections

Sheriff Bullock – Wildcat Formation – Missing Edward

The Bet:  $10 to win on Sheriff Bullock

3:07         7^th     Starter Allowance        8 ½ furlongs – TURF                                                                                        

Kelly’s Pic is the upset selection today.  She is remarkably consistent, being in the exacta 9 of 12 starts in 2010, and has been racing in tougher starter allowance company in New York and New Jersey.  She enters today’s race on a multi-race improving pattern, having earned Beyers of 72-76-79-83 in her last four.  With the ability to set or track the pace, she should get the jump on the deep closers who will attract bettors’ attention on their class.  Dancing Rage is the class of the field, and though challenged by her deep closing style, she has seen MUCH better and should get a favorable pace set-up today.  Consistently she has run in stakes company, and her last win was in an AOC for non-winners of two – today she is in a starter allowance for $16K starters.  Solid if she gets the trip.  Cumana has met the top one three times recently, losing two and getting the head bob in a photo in the other.  What’s interesting is that today Paco Lopez rides and two of Cumana’s best efforts have been with Lopez on board….hmmm. 

Selections

Kelly’s Pic – Dancing Rage – Cumana

The Bet:  $10 to win on Kelly’s Pic (turf only)

3:34         8^th     AOC                 8 furlongs                                                                                                                    

Cugatcha will be a price in the finale before the brief holiday break as she breaks from the outside post and is a confirmed front-runner.  In fact, she will race off to an open lengths lead down the backstretch, and could run away from the field if she gets brave.  Gets Luis Saez to ration her speed – bombs away!  Cuban Carmen is 10/1 and even farther outside; but she loves the Calder strip (21/6-4-4) and this one-mile distance (10/2-3-3).  A deep closer, she could benefit from the hot pace set by Cugatcha.  Liz Hunter another Kenally/Leparoux runner.  Bred to get the distance she ships from Kentucky and stretches out from two sprints.

Selections

Cugatcha – Cuban Carmen – Liz Hunter

The Bet:  PASS