December 18 (RAIN) Recap / December 19 Selections



I only had one simulcast race I was interested in - the Grade 1 Cash Call Futurity.  I went back and forth about making the investment;  finally about 10 minutes before post time, after re-examining the race I went TRIPLE the investment on Comma to the Top......MUCH the best!  Made me a winner for the day!

Calder Recap / Sunday Calder Selections:

12:25    1^st         Claiming          1 mile / 70 yards                                                                                                         

Pistol Rules a deserving favorite in spite of stepping up in class off impressive win in Calder debut around two turns.  The others in here either have poor form, poor two-turn form, or are a mystery at the distance.  Manny Who drops in class while stretching out with Paco Lopez up.  If able to relax off the pace, could be a factor.  Hold My Calls is lightly raced and comes off a layoff and a turf experiment.  Did win going two-turns in an off-the-turf event vs. 2L company.

Selections

Pistol Rules – Manny Who – Hold My Calls

The Bet:  PASS

12:49       2^nd     Maiden Claiming         7 furlongs                                                                                                        

Hard Two Imagine was 9^th, 10 lengths back in his last going 6 panels.  Finished a good third while rallying strongly in a race that saw the place return to break his maiden in his next.  Should enjoy the extra furlong today.  Theslayerinthelane held his speed much better in his last, and drops a notch.  But the final times for his last two are REALLY slow….wow, could they finish any worse – and he STILL couldn’t hold on!  Bandini Spirit is a first time starter out of the Kathleen O’Connel barn, with steady works.  Drawn outside to avoid trouble, wouldn’t have to be much to win here.

Selections

Hard Two Imagine – Theslayerinthelane – Bandini Spirit

The Bet:  PASS

1:14         3^rd     Maiden Special           9 furlongs – TURF                                                                                           

Drifting Away comes to Florida from New York for the legendary Phipps Stable and trained by Hall of Famer Shug McGaughey.  Was dynamite when debuting on the grass in early September on the Spa turf, and finished a good third in what turned out to be a KEY race.  Came back in October when rained off the grass to run ok in a MULTI-KEY race.  Should have no problems with this group today – IF it stays on the grass.  Tiger On The Green made a premature move going this route of ground on the grass last out, opening up by four lengths into the stretch before weakening.  With that one under his belt and more patient handling he could factor.  Grammy’s Queen a legitimate longshot after a solid turf debut two back.  Trouble in last, but gets big rider upgrade to leading jock Manoel Cruz today.

Selections

Drifting Away – Tiger On The Green – Grammy’s Queen

The Bet:  $5 to win on Drifting Away

TURF ONLY!

1:40         4^th     Claiming nw2L                        8 furlongs                                                                                                           

Kitty’s Thunder can spring the mild upset in here.  Was a drawing off winner in her two-turn debut two back.  Then experimented on the turf last out – obviously not her saucer of milk – she gets back on the main today.  Bessie M ships in from Delaware, and drops in class.  If the stretch-out sprinters don’t go nuts Bessie should be up on the pace and could make her warm-weather debut a winning one.  Indy’s Pride was well-beaten in his last against $16K 2L types, was claimed and is moved up to $25K 2L – show of confidence?  Has been two turns a trio of times and has a big win and a show for his efforts.  Could surprise.

Selections

Kitty’s Thunder – Bessie M – Indy’s Pride

The Bet:  PASS

2:05         5^th     Maiden Claiming         7 furlongs                                                                                                        

These 12 runners were beaten a combined 180 lengths in their last – an average of more than 15 lengths!  That kind of sets the stage for what we’re dealing with; but, somebody has to win…..  La Plebe made a determined run in his last at odds-on The Right Button, but settled for second.  A similar effort today could produce a photo session.  Princess Cugat ships down from New York, and that alone qualifies her as a win candidate.  But her two worst efforts were sprinting;  she continues her free-fall through the claiming ranks; and she has only one very slow work – at Gulfstream – for today’s race.  Not at a short price for me.  Real Fortuna was dueling on the lead through a half at this level with a runner who came out of that race to win right back.  Maybe…..

Selections

La Plebe – Princess Cugat – Real Fortuna

The Bet:  $5 to win on La Plebe

2:31         6^th     Claiming nw2L                        5 furlongs – TURF                                                                                              

Smoking In The Field rates the top spot regardless of turf or dirt today.  The lone entry who has never faced 2L company, much less run for a tag.  Has a stalking running style which should be aided by the projected pace flow.  Should also be a little bit of a price as well – we’ll double the effort and try to score!  Sliding In disappointed when barely holding on to the place in a race that he was clearly best.  Thinking he may have a bit of “I don’t want to win” attitude about him – he’s the most qualified to win on the turf, but appears to be a play against.  What to make of Mission Mike Clark who returned to action for the first time since August and dueled throughout in MSW company while holding on to DH for the win.  If able to scoot clear he could be dangerous, on the grass if it goes.

Selections

Smoking In The Field – Sliding In – Mission Mike Clark

The Bet:  $10 to win on Smoking In The Field

3:01         7^th     Starter Allowance        6 ½ furlongs                                                                                                    

Don Misil has run back-to-back near career best speed figures since arriving in South Florida.  Been racing against higher quality than he meets today.  His stalking/finishing style should play well today.  Looks solid at a fair price.  Cape Hatchett as honest as they come with a career mark of 25/13-3-1, including 10 wins in 14 starts this year.  Yet, he’s been in $5K company and is making his first start on the local oval.  Hard to swallow at a short price.  B L’s Noise is 4/2-2-0 at today’s distance and is a front-runner.  Dangerous if able to draw clear without any pressure.

Selections

Don Misil – Cape Hatchett – B L’s Noise

The Bet:  $10 to win on Don Misil

3:31         8^th     Starter Allowance        6 furlongs                                                                                                        

Sure Success has earned Beyers of 84-81-84 in three of his last four; and in his last two wins he beat AOC $16K types.  Running against starter $10K class foes today should prove to his liking.  BIG TIME.  Bourbon Trail was a runaway winner in his South Florida debut last out, earning a big number for Team Calabrese.  Repeat of that effort would make him dangerous – but questions persist since he was claimed AWAY from the Calabrese barn, and he’s likely to have company on the front end.  Forty Thieves a legitimate threat to wire the field on his best day;  having won two in row may indicate he’s back in form, although those wins were at Penn National and you have to wonder who he was beating.

Selections

Sure Success – Bourbon Trail – Forty Thieves

The Bet:  $15 to win on Sure Success

4:00         9^th     AOC                 8 furlongs – TURF                                                                                                       

Questions, questions, and more questions in the feature – no proven turf runners, but in all likelihood it will come off the turf; so who actually runs?  And of those listed, there aren’t any two-turn main-track standouts either.  So, let’s assume it IS on the grass, and we’ll tentatively put Greatest Dream on top.  She stalked the leaders in her two-turn debut and was battling in the stretch for the lead before being a narrowly beaten third.  Off since that mid-October race she should be ready for today’s effort on the grass.  Maria’s Luck could surprise based solely on her company lines and the fact that she was last running at Churchill where you have to believe the quality was stronger.  Maybe…..  Fashionable Elsa was stalking the front runners in a stakes race when making her two turn AND turf debut.  She faded late, but still was less than five lengths off the stakes winning filly.  With the softer company she too could run well here.

Selections

Greatest Dream – Maria’s Luck – Fashionable Elsa

The Bet:  PASS

4:30         10^th    Maiden Claiming         5 ½ furlongs                                                                                                    

Distinctive Dan debuts for Kathleen O’Connell with Luis Saez on board, at a morning line of 10/1.  No great shakes in here to beat…..as good as anyone else!  D’Dream dropped after two vs. MUCH better and showed speed for a half before fading, yet again.  Another drop, another chance to maybe hold on.  Will have to clear from the outside post, but could be dangerous if unpressured.  Peter Boy dueled into the stretch in his debut at this level, fading to third.  Not bad for a first start.  A similar effort would give him a shot.

Selections

Distinctive Dan – D’Dream – Peter Boy

The Bet:  PASS