1st Claiming 1m/70
Frosty Thunder gets a very timid nod here in a toss up of a race. For non-winners of two races in 2010 Frosty Thunder actually has a fairly good record for this collection (19/3-2-2). With only a couple of exceptions she has been in the money in most of her efforts this year, which put her as one of the most in-form runners. Fantastic Lisa is the morning line favorite, and most certainly will be on the front end. However she has been unable to hold her speed since early last spring – a very iffy proposition at best. Dance for Zack scored at this distance and class level two back, and has been a popular claim over the past month. She makes her first start for her new barn, the third in a month, today with hopes of bringing a quick reward to her new connections.
Selections
Frosty Thunder – Fantastic Lisa – Dance for Zack
The Bet: PASS
2nd Maiden Special 5 furlongs – TURF
Omni’s Vindication looks to take advantage of her outside post and stalking style to pounce into the stretch on an abundance of front-runners. Lightly raced, and yet to make it on the grass in spite of being entered twice for the turf, Omini’s Vindication should get her chance to score today if good enough. Fandangle should prove to be the speed of the speed off her good efforts at Laurel and Saratoga
Selections
Omni’s Vindication – Fandangle – Catch the Beat
The Bet: $5 to win on Omni’s Vindication
3rd Claiming nw2L 7 furlongs
Splash of Silver “headlines” this weak group of runners which resemble the opener in many ways. All have weak from, and all have had many opportunities to win at this level, and NONE have. There are no significant class droppers and few with good recent form. However you can make something of a case for Silver as he broke behind the field in his last at this level and came with a huge late run at SIX furlongs. Today he stretches out to a distance which may better suit him. His lone victory was a front-running one at eight furlongs, so perhaps this distance will be right in his wheelhouse. Of the others, Ativa is the most lightly raced, and has shown early speed in each of his starts. Western Decision ran 2nd in back-to-back 7 furlong contests at this level, and would appear to fit at this level. However his 1-for-44 career mark does anything but inspire confidence in the win position.
Selections
Splash of Silver – Ativa – Western Decision
The Bet: PASS
4th Maiden Claiming 5 ½ furlongs
Closing Era was just up for third in a decent debut at this level. Since then she has fired off a bullet work and gets an upgrade in riders to top jockey Luis Saez. With her inside post, and bullet work, I look for Saez to break quickly and try to take this field gate to wire – and she may have found the perfect mix of runners to flaunt her speed. Miswaki Brew drew a long hard look from me, especially at her tempting 15/1 morning line. She too has only been out once, but unlike Era, her debut was in Maiden Special company. She showed absolutely nothing that day, but has since worked twice and gets a barn switch today. Perhaps more importantly top rider Manoel Cruz gets onboard today. His numbers with trainer Kathleen O’Connell say he has a real chance in here today. Bonafide Cat is another who will in all likelihood outrun her odds. At 6/1 she is an overlay having run two deceptively good races against runaway winners against higher quality runners.
Selections
Closing Era – Miswaki Brew – Bonafide Cat
The Bet: $5 to win on Closing Era
5th Claiming 6 furlongs
Five Afternoons in sharp form, makes third start off a layoff here after nearly pairing Beyers. Very consistent this year (7/2-2-2) and at the distance (11/3-3-3). Should trip out nicely at a fair price under Saez. Nemo Landing also in sharp form, albeit against a notch cheaper. Form may carry him to the line however. What to make of Fundit? Drops out of AOC company after winning at that level and pairing up Beyers of 88 and 86, which would destroy this group. Disheartening that his first off the claim in his last was a dismal performance and a huge drop in speed figure rating. May simply be too good for these in spite of the negative signs. Not for me at a short price.
Selections
Five Afternoons – Nemo Landing – Fundit
The Bet: $10 to win on Five Afternoons
6th Maiden Special 8 furlongs
Professor Palmer an “inside information” selection here at a nice price. To the casual handicapper there is some evidence of impending good effort today – continued improving speed figures, a good second last out. But most will be discouraged by his multiple tries and enamored by the new shooters. BUT…..I had the winner in the Professor’s last race, and he was a “BEST” of the day – and he proved it as much the best under a hand ride. Well, the Prof was 2nd best that day, and was nearly 4 clear of the show horse in an 11 horse field. Sneaky good performance. Upset special! Financial Empire certain to draw a lot of support at the windows, and normally an automatic selection for me – first time starter for Todd Pletcher. But, I’m betting that Todd has his second team running here at Calder, and at a mile first time out I think he’d have to be pretty special to win this…..those kind he is more likely to save for Gulfstream. Runyon Humor a real puzzler – speed figure lays over this field, and his photo miss after dueling through the stretch points him out as a solid candidate. BUT…that was at a mile on the turf; can he run as well on the main? From the far outside post? Not at a short price for me.
Selections
Professor Palmer – Financial Empire – Runyon Humor
The Bet: $10 to win on Professor Palmer
UPSET SPECIAL!
7th Allowance 8 ½ furlongs – TURF
Many Crowns listed at 12/1 may be a nice overlay in here – a field full of lightly raced fillies with no experience on the grass. Of the 8 in the main body, there is a total of 4 starts going long on the grass – and none of those were in the money finishes. Bombs away! Wicked Speed with good enough turf breeding, out of the Marty Wolfson barn. One of the areas Wolfson is NOT stellar is “first turf” and “turf to dirt” angles. Going against in spite of Luis Saez in the saddle today. Ginny G would get my vote should she draw in today. Gets Jersey Joe Bravo to ride, and – most importantly – comes off a TURF win going two turns! Right back if able to draw in.
Selections
Many Crowns – Wicked Speed – Ginny G
The Bet: PASS
8th Claiming nw2L 8 furlongs
Very little to go on in the finale – my advice….beat the traffic and head for home. But if you’re looking to complete the late double, well, consider Puchador. Relatively lightly raced and dropping in class here. Although the try at this level and at two turns on the main two back was just terrible….what went wrong there? Yikes! V I Mongoose goes second off the shelf, and drops in claiming price; also goes turf to dirt today. If able to repeat his last prior to the break, he’d be some one to consider. But that career mark of 20/1-0-2 makes you wonder……Texas Billy Boy was making up a lot of ground in his latest – at seven furlongs. The stretch to a mile makes sense today; but the 11 slices from 21 tries with a single win make me question his heart to win races.
Selections
Puchador – V I Mongoose – Texas
The Bet: PASS
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