Friday December 17 Selections

Thursday was a disappointing day - granted only four selections, but shut out :(  Good second best at 7/2 with the upset selection - but second best doesn't get you anywhere at the windows.  Let's see if we can bring some winners home FIRST Friday.............

12:25    1^st         Claiming          6 ½ furlongs                                                                                                                

Fly South has the inside post to utilize his speed in the opener.  He shipped down from Delaware for his last and dueled from gate to wire before being out-nodded.  That was at the $6K level, and his connections move him up in class today to the $10K level – a move we’ll take as a sign of confidence.  There isn’t a lot of speed in here, and if able to clear off early, Fly South can be very dangerous in this spot at a fair price.  Abdel’s Ghost strung together three races with outstanding Beyers for the $10K level (75-74-73) and had two dominant wins by greater than 6 lengths.  He has yet to duplicate those efforts, although to be fair he’s been facing better.  A return to form would make him a threat.  Quick Appeal has a nice outside draw to utilize his finishing/stalking style.  Should there be a pace duel he would be the one to fear most. 

Selections

Fly South – Abdel’s Ghost – Quick Appeal

The Bet:  $5 to win on Fly South

12:50       2^nd     Maiden Claiming         8 ½ furlongs – TURF                                                                                        

Giant’s Kisses ran his final fraction in a sub :12 when just missing on the turf going 9 furlongs.  That qualifies her as a win candidate.  But here’s what’s curious……three back Giant was pulled up on the Tampa turf in April;  off until November she runs in an off-the-turf event finishing over 18 lengths behind the winner.  Off those two efforts she was installed the 9/5 favorite in his last!  What does everyone else know that I’m not seeing?  I don’t know, but it’s clear she was a deserving favorite as she just missed.  Right back here.  Cavallo Murano is a second time starter for Christophe Clemente.  In her debut she too ran a good second, closing strongly despite soft pace figures.  With Manoel Cruz on board she has to be considered.  However, that debut was in mid-November in New York.  No works since then, and shipped to South Florida?  I’m thinking this is a “workout” race to get her in shape for a serious try when the purse money is stronger at Gulfstream next month.  Royal Bern doesn’t have the turf breeding, but in both efforts on the Monmouth grass this summer she opened up on the lead and took them into the stretch before weakening.  With the rail draw she will flying on the front end.  Takes them as far as they let her.

Selections

Giant’s Kisses – Cavallo Murano – Royal Bern

The Bet:  $5 to win on Giant’s Kisses

1:15         3^rd     Claiming                      1m /70 yards                                                                                                   

Coup de Theatre comes out of the Peter Walder barn, and two years ago he was the hottest trainer at Gulfstream.  So last fall when he arrived for the winter I was quickly on board;  never seemed to get his feet on the ground and had a mediocre winter.  Today is his first starter, and Walder typically wins with an amazing 36% of runners coming off a short break like Coup de Theatre.  Choice in a toss-up.  Misy Lido is very lightly raced (6/3-1-0) and looks to have the lead if she wants it.  She will most likely be a fair price as this marks her first start in South Florida and her latest work, at Tampa, was slow indeed.  Blue Sky Girl is the most proficient of the field at today’s distance with a record of 6/2-1-2.  Drops out of $10K class where she just ran 2^nd.  Would be a logical selection.

Selections

Coup de Theatre – Misy Lido – Blue Sky Girl

The Bet:  PASS

1:41         4^th     Maiden Claiming         5 ½ furlongs                                                                                                    

Ceylon Star debuts today for Ron Spatz.  Spatz runners win a nice 22% first time out, and earn him an ROI of $4.83 for every $2 invested.  She gets the nod here because she has several very quick/bullet works.  Mrs. Send Me is a first timer from the David Fawkes barn – wins a solid 16% with FTS and shows some nice works going all the way back to July.  Seems ready to fire her best shot in her debut here.  Cosmic Burst rallied belatedly in her last, her second start and first at this level.  She has to be considered on an experience factor alone.

Selections

Ceylon Star – Mrs. Send Me – Cosmic Burst

The Bet:  PASS

2:06         5^th     Maiden Special           8 furlongs – TURF                                                                                           

El Bendinat tried turf and two turns in October for the first time and exploded to a three length lead at the stretch call – unfortunately she was run down by Michelle’s Trip, who subsequently won her next TURF start in allowance company.  She’s coming off a short break – but she was when entered in that turf race, and she’s worked very well since.  Exiting that KEY race is good enough to make her to top pick in spite of the price. Certain to take money at the windows is 2^nd time starter Mending Hearts.  Rallied strongly for second when debuting in the same sprint as the top one.  Goes for Marty Wolfson, always a powerhouse at Calder, with top rider Joe Bravo up.  Going against the grain in picking her second!  Frontside is bred up and down for turf and a route of ground.  Debuted in an off-the-turf sprint, where she started slowly and just ran around the track.  Trainer Jose Pinchin does well with 2^nd time starters, and particularly well with first-time turf starters:  21% winners with an unbelievable ROI of $9.65 per $2….WOW.  Could upset this evenly matched field. 

Selections

El Bendinat – Mending Hearts – Frontside

The Bet:  $5 to win on El Bendinat

1:43         6^th     Claiming                      5 ½ furlongs                                                                                                    

Upfrontndangerous indeed looks dangerous!  On the drop from Optional-Allowance company, turf to dirt, and with a stalking style to take advantage of an anticipated pace duel.  Paco Lopez on board.  Wish she had a recent work, but beggars can’t be choosers…..but they also don’t HAVE to bet at the track!  Morekissesformonkey comes off the shelf for Nick Canani-Frank Calabrese.  That’s a 31% angle, and she’s also been in against tougher.  No stellar works, but might simply be better than these.  Magic In The Stars should go off the favorite having won at this level and distance two back by 10 widening lengths….then lost as the heavy chalk last out.  Which “Magic” shows up today?

Selections

Upfrontndangerous – Morekissesformonkey – Magic In The Stars

The Bet:  PASS

3:00         7^th     Maiden Claiming         5 ½ furlongs                                                                                                    

Casino Mick appears to be a standout in here.  He’s run in three consecutive Maiden Specials, and drops to the $25K level today – AND he was 2^nd and 3^rd twice in those efforts.  In his last he was third beaten less than six lengths to multiple stakes winner Gourmet Dinner – who will go off as one of the favorites in this week’s Grade 1 Cash Call Futurity at Hollywood this weekend.  The only “issue” is the one hole, he’ll have to find a way to get clear running with his stalk and finish style.  VERY SOLID in here today.  Wildcat Formation looks to have a decided pace advantage, and at this short sprint distance he could be dangerous if left alone on an easy lead.  Comes in off a Laurel sprint with ok works over the local strip.  Passthepasta Plesa turns back from a mile effort, so he will be finishing.  But the key race to evaluate him is two back when steadied, not once but twice, and still was third, to a runner who came right back to beat winners.

Selections

Casino Mick – Wildcat Formation – Passthepasta Plesa

The Bet:  $15 to win on Casino Mick

3:29         8^th     Claiming          8 furlongs – TURF                                                                                                       

Far From Shy is far above the competition in here.  She shipped to South Florida from Chicago for dynamite connections Frank Calabres/Nick Canani and promptly drew off with authority as the chalk.  Off since that early October victory over ALLOWANCE company, she drops into this restricted claiming event as much the best on paper;  she towers over these on class and speed figures.  The only question would be why the drop from Allowance to $25K?  Still, much the best in spite of the short price.  Simply Impressive is the only rival who’s run fast enough to compete with Far From Shy, if she is on her “A” game.  She also has the edge of NOT being beaten by Minstrel Lisa – who’s dominated most of the rest of the field, and she herself was dominated by Far From Shy.  Tres Leches has run three consecutively improved turf races (as measured by her Beyers.  The only problem, those races were run in June and July!  Not sure if she can fire fresh, and even her best would not threaten Shy on her best.  It’s Far From Shy’s race to lose…..

Selections

Far From Shy – Simply Impressive – Tres Leches

The Bet:  $15 to win on Far From Shy

3:57         9^th     Starter Allowance        8 ½ furlongs                                                                                                    

This race will decided by the jockeys – nearly every runner in here wants and/or needs the lead.  But someone is going to lay just off the pace, and it is that runner who will kick home in front of perennial deep closer/also ran Imawildandcrazyguy.  Bidham has run competitively when just off the pace, and may fall into that perfect spot.  Problem here is, he’s stretching out to a new distance of ground, as he’s usually a sprinter.  Seemingly he’s bred for the distance (according to the Tomlinson numbers), but he’s yet to prove it on the race track.  Cinnamon Road is the inside speed, and I can see him gunning to the front and challenging everyone.  That would present a real dilemma for everyone….. (a) no one can carry their speed if matching his pace numbers, so to go with him is suicidal; and (b) if left alone to avoid the suicide pace duel, you basically concede the race to Cinnamon Road.  My guess is someone takes on the role of sacrificial lamb and denies him the easy trip.  Wingedlie has twice fallen victim to

Cinnamon Road

– but, in both of those instances Cinnamon was loose on the lead.  With some pace pressure, Wingedlie could turn the tables.  The outside post lends credence to that possibility, but the rider change to a jock who’s 1 for 15 at Tropical and has won all of 22 races for the YEAR from 320 starts – YIKES! – makes me reluctant to expect a winning effort.

Selections

Bidham –

Cinnamon Road

– Wingedlie

The Bet:  PASS

4:25         10^th    Maiden Claiming         6 furlongs                                                                                                        

Holy Bling set modest fractions of :22.1 - :46.4 in last and held for third.  He was SOUNDLY beaten by today’s rival Merry Mary Lynn, however there is reason to believe that today proves to be a different story.  First, that race was Holy Bling’s first off a 2 ½ month layoff; second, it was his first try at this level; third he was easily clear early, and then faded to the late runners when obviously being a short horse.  Today, with one under his belt and absolutely no other pace rivals, Holy Bling should be able to secure the lead, set much more leisurely fractions and hold on due to the slower pace, and the better conditioning state.  It is also cause to wonder if Merry Mary Lynn truly is a stronger rival as she has been out a total of 20 times now, without a single victory.  It should be noted however, that in that last when she ran by Holy Bling, she was defeated by some 2 ¼ lengths, but was also more than EIGHT clear of Holy Bling!  It’sthemoneyhoney went off as the 6/5 favorite in her last – this in spite of the fact that she had lost at this same class level while earning lowly Beyers of 30 and 24.  She was a clear second when getting piloted by Luis Saez for the first time.  Saez is back, and if able to take a step forward, it’s possible she could compete for the top spot here.

Selections

Holy Bling – Merry Mary Lynn – It’sthemoneyhoney

The Bet:  $5 to win on Holy Bling