1st Claiming nw2L 5 ½ furlongs
Joan’s Royal Dawn was a HFC at Calder until claimed away last spring. Since then she’s been at Gulfstream, and Delaware Park
Selections
Joan’s Royal Dawn – Laughing Matters – Seed of Faith
The Bet: PASS
2nd Claiming 8 ½ furlongs
Concerto’s Song plunges in class from C $16K to today’s C $6.25K, why? He has won three races at this distance – including in two of his last three starts. What makes this interesting is that all three of the wins were when clear on an open lead, and all three the margin of victory was a diminishing neck. Taken to hang on again here at a fair price for the upset. Masterofballydoyle and Cove Star are coupled in here and EITHER of them would be a solid win contender. Both are capable of scoring by daylight if on their best. Little can beat a powerful, in-form runner….but lone speed trumps all!
Selections
Concerto’s Song – Masterofballydoyle – Cove Star
The Bet: $5 to win on Concerto’s Song
3rd Maiden Claiming 8 ½ furlongs – TURF
Elusive Lara may slip by the bettors today because she’s never been on the grass and APPEARS to be stepping up in class. However if you are familiar with the Calder purse structure, the turf races always have a higher purse value, so Lara may indeed be racing at the same level….maybe even taking a step down. She’s solidly bred for grass; goes for a trainer who has HUGE ROI numbers for 1st turf runners and with this jockey. A nice pick at a nice price. Bala Roja has legitimate excuses in her last, a turf race at this class level where she missed by less than a length. With any kind of smooth trip she should have a big impact here. Blue Samari is much like Elusive Lara – 2nd start, first time on turf, bred for turf, and a nice price. The trainer/jockey stats aren’t nearly as impressive as Lara’s, but she has every right to give a good account of herself.
Selections
Elusive Lara – Bala Roja – Blue Samari
The Bet: $5 to win on Elusive Lara (turf only)
4th Claiming 1 mile / 70 yards
Smashin Thru would appear to be one of several pace factors in here, and some may even believe he’s stepping up from the $6250 number in his last two starts. But upon careful observation those two races were in much tougher starter allowance company than today’s claiming company. He has the quickest pace numbers and I believe he’ll clear the field early, and the other front-runners will take back figuring to stalk his pace-setting tactics. But this would be a big mistake, as on the “drop” he will be LONG gone. His best of 32 bullet says he’s ready today…and at a nice price in here today! Bull Star would appear to be an “automatic” selection as he’s out of the Frank Calabrese barn for trainer Nick Canani. However, you’ll note he is NOT first off the claim; he is simply off a layoff and he’s dropping in class – AND going first time on the main track. Too many “ifs” for me for a runner that has been a short priced favorite in five straight starts. Chief Bear plunges in class today from the $25K level at Woodbine to today’s $8K level – what’s up with that? And never been on the natural dirt…..if able to take to the dirt, and not being put up for a fire sale, he’s a legitimate contender.
Selections
Smashin Thru – Bull Star – Chief Bear
The Bet: $10 to win on Smashin Thru
5th Maiden Special 6 furlongs
Sweetly Valid goes out in his debut for Ron Spatz, who wins 23% with his FTS and has an ROI of nearly $5 ($4.97) with these types; Eibar Coa wins nearly a quarter of his rides for Spatz, and he should get a good trip breaking from the outside. He has some very quick works which may indicate he has some talent. Evil Queen has the rail, and at first glance her 0-for-7 record doesn’t inspire any further investigation. But when you look to her early starts she had two very near misses when racing on a sloppy track. If the weather does indeed turn stormy, she’d have to be given a legitimate chance today. Nasty Rumor is a $95K Keeneland sales purchase and was an even 4th in her debut. With one under her belt, she may move forward today.
Selections
Sweetly Valid – Evil Queen – Nasty Rumor
The Bet: PASS
6th Claiming nw2L 8 ½ furlongs – TURF
Rhythm of the Nile has run two very poor races – however they were both off the grass. Go back three races and you’ll find a very strong effort when allowed to run on the turf. Manny Cruz rides for Bill White today – and that’s a 27% angle. Good enough in this group. Kate’s Holiday will be flying late, but if the past is any indication, she’ll come up short, as she has in 15 other trips to the gate. Dixie Ocean
Selections
Rhythm of the Nile – Kate’s Holiday – Dixie Ocean
The Bet: PASS
7th Claiming 6 ½ furlongs
Mighty Score has run back-to-back-to-back upper 70’s Beyers against open company in his last three since being claimed. He drops into a conditioned claimer today seeking a victory. Truthbetold was sharp through the fall of ’09, running speed figures in the low 80s, but since his return late this summer/early fall, he’s not been the same runner. Perhaps he wakes up on the drop and move to South Florida . Moon Nistle dueled on the front end at this level and distance two back, then stepped up to Allowance company. The return here, and if he can get clear early would make him a nice price play at 10/1.
Selections
Mighty Score – Truthbetold – Moon Nistle
The Bet: $5 to win on Mighty Score
8th Allowance 8 ½ furlongs – TURF
And I Like It Too was a strong closing 3rd in the Appleton Stakes last out. The drop to allowance company, and the presence of a lot of speed could set it up nicely for him. Le Bon Ton Roule stalked a good pace in a New York South Florida and change in barns may light him up today. Itouch earned a solid figure in winning his maiden. If able to move forward in his first against winners, he could surprise.
Selections
And I Like It Too – Le Bon Ton Roule – Itouch
The Bet: $10 to win on And I Like It Too
9th AOC 8 furlongs
Bimini likes the one mile distance, is coming off a win at Parx Racecourse in Philly, and best of all, looks to be the LONE speed in here. Dangerous on the front end. Fearless Eagle has the class – being multiple stakes placed – to win today; the problem is his best work has come on the grass. If able to come off the shelf and run on the main as he has on the turf, he’s a solid contender. Hear Ye Hear Ye has dirt class, and will stalk the leaders; his problem is he sprints for a living. His few route past performances show him fading. If able to get the distance he’d be a contender.
Selections
Bimini – Fearless Eagle – Hear Ye Hear Ye
The Bet: $15 to win on Bimini
10th Maiden Special 6 ½ furlongs
TODAY’S BEST BET
Value Added Tax has run three straight Beyers that beat anything the others have every run; and he’s done it while being the runner-up in all three – including two beaten less than a length. Easy pickin’s today! Just hoping he doesn’t have a case of 2nd-it is and/or one of the first-timers is a special sort. Tomorrow’s Wildcat has only been out once, and showed speed for a quarter mile at Monmouth. Been working well, and is 8/1 under Saez today. Vee’s Accolade is TRIPLE-stakes placed – having run third in the last two legs of the Florida Stallion Stakes after hitting the board in the Frank Gomez. This might be HIS race if he had not been beaten handily by Value Added Tax in his last.
Selections
Value Added Tax – Tomorrow’s Wildcat – Vee’s Accolade
The Bet: $20 to win on Value Added Tax
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