1st Claiming nw3L 6f
Nervous Nell is in excellent form, having run 3rd twice, 2nd twice, and won in his last five. Should get a nice pocket trip just off the runner to his inside on the rail. Altamar has the rail and is the lone runner who is comfortable on the front end. He drops from an open claimer 2 back, and a $16K nw2L in his last; so he is eligible for a 2L event, but is up against 3L types today. The pace advantage may be good enough to get him home first. Sweet Enticement is a deep closer, so today’s 6 panels may be a touch too short for him. But, he is in good form and has nearly paired Beyers in his last two starts.
Selections
Nervous Nell – Altamar – Sweet Enticement
The Bet: PASS
2nd Maiden Special 8 ½ furlongs – TURF
Perfect Barry looks best of the main body of the field, but the most logical winners are on the AE list. Barry rallied from FAR back twice at Saratoga Belmont South Fla. debut, but he looks to be solid with Paco Lopez up. Drifting Away would probably be odds-on if he were in the field today. He’ll have to escape the AE list to meet the starter today, but his debut at Saratoga South Florida debut.
Selections
Perfect Barry – Drifting Away – Ba Ba’s Bench
The Bet: PASS
3rd Maiden Claiming 6 furlongs
Run Kitten lands in the softest spot of his career in this bottom level maiden claimer. She began his career with three tries at the Maiden Special level before dropping in for a $25K tag. She wasn’t that competitive until dropped in her last to the $16K level where she actually led in mid-stretch, only to tire to 3rd, beaten less than three lengths. The drop today to $12.5K will do the trip. Looks much better than her rivals in here. C C Alexandra has run 2nd in two of her four outings. However, unlike Kitten, all four of her tries were at this bottom level, and in both runner-up finishes she had the lead, only to give it up. Hard to trust in spite of the close finishes. Jumpin Jordan debuted for a $20K try and was a well-beaten fifth. However she was within five lengths of the show finisher as the top two were runaway finishers that day. Perhaps the experience and drop to the bottom reverses her fortunes. But the 0-for-15 rider doesn’t promote confidence in a win today.
Selections
Run Kitten – CC Alexandra – Jumpin Jordan
The Bet: $5 to win on Run Kitten
4th Claiming 6 furlongs
Boy G has a modest record of 13/2-1-2, which is one of the better marks of consistency in here. He ran competitively against open company last spring in Philadelphia , and has had two competitive efforts here in South Florida . You can excuse his last when off slowly and “steadied at the start.” Three back he was dueling throughout off a five month layoff. Perhaps that effort explains his dull effort at 2/1 in his next to last start. If you are willing to draw a line through that race, and focus on his open company tries then he looks pretty solid with these proven conditioned losers. Charmed Affair is even more lightly raced (6/2-1-1) and on paper looks even more appealing than the top one. However it is worrisome that he has had so many breaks in his brief career, and that today he drops significantly in class with only two very slow works since his last race. Mixed signals here. Five Afternoons has been in the money in ten of his last eleven starts, a remarkably consistent record, however during that span he shows only two wins, with every other effort being a fade through the final furlong. Getting new rider Eibar Coa today may reverse that trend.
Selections
Boy G – Charmed Affair – Five Afternoons
The Bet: $5 to win on Boy G
5th Allowance 8 ½ furlongs – TURF
Flyin Trey comes back after having just run a week ago; however that was on the main track and he was carried wide and finished without being asked to run. His last two turf efforts (2 and 3 back) both earned Beyers that would solidly beat everything the entire field has ever accomplished – and I believe you can trust those speed figures as they were earned in winning efforts, not as a result of being close to another runner who earned a good figure winning. The barn is not unaccustomed to quick turnarounds, as they’ve done this over fifty times. Right back today. Alcomatch is a tough read. On the positive side he has high Tomlinsons for the turf and distance, he’s out of the Christophe Clemente barn and ridden by Joe Bravo today – these two have already teamed for a turf winner last week – and his Beyers on turf have earned an 80 in his last two tries. On the negative side he is winless on the grass, in fact he’s never even finished second! The Clemente barn fires at a 22% rate off short breaks like he’s had, but will he finally cross the wire first today? Hard to wager on at a short price. Barra d’Oro is stuck on the AE list, but he has the best front-running speed. If able to get in on the grass, or able to draw in through scratches if it comes off the turf he would be a threat to steal this.
Selections
Flyin Trey – Alcomatch – Barra d’Oro
The Bet: $10 to win on Flyin Trey
(Turf or Main )
6th Starter Allowance 8 furlongs
Dance Floor Music is in career form since arriving from Saratoga AOC with a tag of $16K, so the drop today into Starter Allowance for $12K should put him in great position to make it a 3-peat! He’s also paired Beyers indicating a forward move is possible! Black Tie Spirit looks to regain his winning form from 2 back when he dominated $25K 2L company. With Manoel Cruz above he just might! Decaf Again has run speed figures which would make him competitive here; and the one mile trip may be his best distance. But his 5 for 35 lifetime mark, and the fact he’s been facing cheaper make him a fringe player. As a side note, I’ll take a STRONG stand against the favored entry…..Nathan Ridge has a poor 3 for 21 record at the distance, against cheaper! And his entry mate, while shipping from New York
Selections
Dance Floor – Black Tie Spirit – Decaf Again
The Bet: $10 to win on Dance Floor Music
7th AOC 6 furlongs
Black Diamond Cat may be poised to spring the upset in today’s feature. His form is darkened by a layoff and a poor effort in his return when sprinting on the turf – a surface he obviously does not care for. But if you go back three races you’ll see a nice win sprinting – and if the weather is off he would relish the sloppy going! His connections have thought of him to enter him in several stakes races, and he is stakes placed so there is back class. Peace At Dawn won at this distance here to clear his nw1x condition. He has been firing nothing but bullets all fall, so you know he’s sharp. He turns back off a one-mile turf event, so he’s got a solid foundation. Trulyonbroadway easily distances all his opponents today when comparing success at the distance – his five wins are clearly superior. He’s been off since last April, but he posted a sharp work 3 weeks ago, with two maintainence works since.
Selections
Black Diamond Cat – Peace At Dawn – Trulyonbroadway
The Bet: $5 to win on Black Diamond Cat
8th Claiming nw2L 5 furlongs – TURF
TODAY’S BEST!
Sliding In dropped to this level for the first time in just his 5th start, and ran a winning race – especially since he was bumped hard at the start, chased a :21.1 / :44.3 pace, then was forced ever wider through the stretch, and STILL outfinished all his rivals except for a perfect-trip closer, to finish a best-of-the-rest 2nd. With any kind of trip he overwhelms this field today. BIG TIME! Red Jag is most likely the horse to run down in spite of this being his first trip to the inner course. He’s bred to love the grass, but I’m hesitant to back him with his trainer’s 0-for-21 1st turf stat….OUCH! Should this come off the grass, however, Red Jag is a Prime-Time play. Book Says Yes has finished 2nd in 4 of 5 turf sprint starts, and rallies from off the pace. Should the front-runners burn themselves out, he’s the most likely finisher.
Selections
Sliding In – Red Jag – Book Says Yes
The Bet: $20 to win on Sliding In (on the grass)
TODAY’S BEST
Off the turf: $15 to win on Red Jag
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