1st Maiden Claiming 1m/70
Riona ships from Churchill Downs where she made up some ground at a lower claiming tag, but it would be safe to assume that the Kentucky South Florida , so this may help her odds, which are 8/1 on the morning line. Valid Distinction is an obvious contender, but she has had several opportunities to break through, for a tag – albeit a notch higher – and has lost ground in the stretch (going one mile) each time….not on top for me. Turtle is a legitimate favorite as she drops in price FROM Churchill Downs as well. So, I would see this as a significant drop – but she has yet to try two turns, and will be too short a price to put on top for me.
Selections
Riona – Valid Distinction – Turtle
The Bet: PASS
2nd Claiming 1m/70
Masterofballydoyle scratched out of a Friday race to run here, and it appears that was a strong move. In this non-winners of 2 in 2010 he has the best current form. His Beyers have climbed with each start since a break, and appears in peak form. In the past he’s strung together good efforts, so I look for a continued forward movement. His stalking style should also play well here. Biblionico set the pace in a similar event two weeks ago, and was a well beaten 2nd, but clearly 2nd best. A repeat of that effort, especially if able to clear early, would make him a win candidate. Quiet Emarati goes for the strong connections of Frank Calabrese / Ron Faucheaux; however when first off the claim – one of their strongest angles – he missed by a neck, and has still yet to cash. Hmmmmm.
Selections
Masterofballydoyle – Biblionico – Quiet Emarati
The Bet: $5 to win on Masterofballydoye
3rd Maiden Claiming 8 furlongs
Lava Lady is a virtual standout in here – literally, it will be difficult to name two other horses as “contenders” based on their current form and class. Not so with Lady who ships from Churchill where she set the pace to deep stretch before grudgingly yielding by ½ length vs. similar going a 16th further. Sets sail today and never looks back – BIG TIME. Judith’s Memory is a conceivable contender. Been out only once, vs. a notch better, but going 5 ½ furlongs that day. Will probably be on or near the pace – but she was SO well beaten in her debut you have to wonder how competitive she will be when asked the question. Pistol Peg is the lone legitimate “in form” runner, but her form was on the grass. If able to close ground on the main as she did at today’s distance on the turf she’s a contender.
Selections
Lava Lady – Judith’s Memory – Pistol Peg
The Bet: $15 to win on Lava Lady
4th Claiming nw2L 8 ½ furlongs – TURF
OK – a turf claiming event where the field of eight have a combined total of ZERO turf starts; not even a tried-to-get-on-the-turf-but-it-was-rained-off start! A puzzler indeed, and a virtual guessing game. But someone figures to win the race, so we’ll settle on I Wanna Run who drops out of allowance company after showing brief speed going two turns. Reasonably bred for grass, he gets Luis Saez on board today. Silver Sabre has the best breeding for the grass; is lightly raced (two starts); drops from starter allowance company in his two-turn latest, also his first try against winners. Should be rallying late if he runs back to his debut maiden win. Send A Spirit has speed and an inside post. Will be winging it on the front end for as long as he can carry his speed. Dangerous if able to set moderate fractions and he gets brave.
Selections
I Wanna Run – Silver Sabre – Send A Spirit
The Bet: PASS
5th Claiming 8 furlongs
Cutie Kitty dueled with one of today’s rivals and was outfinished by that one in their last, but I see a reversal today. Kitty was coming off a two month break, while her rival has been running consistently since early last summer – an obvious conditioning edge. Further, Kitty has been consistent at this level, while her rival is a $5K horse. Inside post, speed to set or stalk –she wins today. RIchie London is a deep closer who would benefit from a pace duel; but also is more consistent vs. cheaper. Miss Leonardo was a runaway winner at this distance against conditioned $5K types last out, but has won at this level and distance in the past. Might be in good enough form to handle the step up today.
Selections
Cutie Kitty – Richie London – Miss Leonardo
The Bet: $5 to win on Cutie Kitty
6th Claiming nw3L 8 furlongs
The Cat Rules will have no excuse if she doesn’t cross the line first today. Two back she was a clear winner when streaking right to the front from post position one, and never looking back. Today she breaks from the rail, has a sharp bullet work since her last (a stalking try – why?), and has the rail. Look for Paco Lopez to break on top and take them gate to wire. Solid in here. Evil Powder came off a break in early September to rally from the back and take down a $16K nw2L group. She drops to $6K today, and is coming off yet another break. If able to fire fresh, and the top one gets pace pressure, then she’d be the most likely winner. El Cobre might be able to work out a pocket trip and be a contender if everything broke just right for her.
Selections
The Cat Rules – Evil Powder – El Cobre
The Bet: $10 to win on The Cat Rules
7th AOC 8 furlongs – TURF
John Johny Jak was my pick two back when making his turf debut, and he was a solid winner paying over $12. I let him get away at 4/1 in his last when he ran even better from just off the pace. Now unbeaten on the turf and a winner of two straight he may still pay double digits in this field. Gets a clear garden spot from just off the pace with several wanting the lead today. Go with the hot horse! Gulf Ruckus is a very tempting play in here at 10/1. His only win showing was when breaking from the rail and stealing the race at a mile on the turf….today’s race: a mile on the turf….his post…the rail! Uh oh, look out! Which Saint Dynaformer shows up today? The one who was a good closing third in the Calder Derby two back, or the even running Saint from last race – albeit 4th in a restricted stake. Would need to fire his best to take down the top one, especially from the outside draw.
Selections
John Johny Jak – Gulf Ruckus – Saint Dynaformer
The Bet: $10 to win on John Johny Jak
8th AOC 8 furlongs
Clean Shot stretches out for Nick Canani/Frank Calabrese in here today. His speed figures say he can win, and with the connections you just hate to pick against them. Should be a fair price today. Huff ‘N Hughes was life and death to hold on in his last….but he did for his second consecutive win. If able to get away to a clear lead he might be tough to reel in today. Dueling Alex is listed as the morning line choice at 2/1, but I’d be hard pressed to put him on top given his 2010 record of 9/0-0-2, and career mark of 14/1-3-2. Always earns a solid speed figure….when NOT winning. No thanks, but could get a piece.
Selections
Clean Shot – Huff ‘N Hughes – Dueling Alex
The Bet: PASS
9th AOC 6 furlongs
TODAY’S BEST BET!
If GOLDEN MYSTERY is allowed to get away at her morning line of 6/1, or even 4/1, it’s just plain stealing! I’m looking to make a big score here with my “BEST” of the day – and usually those selections are short priced favorites. Why? Ok, look back with me….her last, toss it – first off the shelf and on the grass. Next to last, stakes company, too ambitious; the one before, GRADED stakes – toss it. Prior to that, stakes – toss. OK, here we are, the “window” is open to what she will most likely do today – Allowance/Optional claiming – a dominant win with a 97 Beyer; the one previous – another AOC and a dominant win with a 94 Beyer. Those efforts would result in an open-length victory. Need more evidence – how about this….those two dominant wins, she had Elvis Trujillo aboard and he has not ridden her since, until TOD AY! WOW! Want another indicator? How about this, her work before that turf conditioner in her last was a BEST OF 110 bullet! BIG TIME, and I mean BIG TIME! Landing My Way has won her last two and 3 of her last five sprinting here, bringing her Calder record to 5/3-1-1. With the rail, she’s a serious win candidate if the top one doesn’t fire her best. Sweetlalabye broke her maiden in her debut and has been in nothing but stakes since. And that includes two STAKES WINS here at Calder, including the $400K My Dear Girl. Wow, how come she’s not the pick? Because she was last seen in November of last year. A lot to ask of her to return off a year sprinting against these types.
Selections
GOLDEN MYSTERY – Landing My Way – Sweetlalabye
The Bet: TODAY’S BEST - $30 to win on Golden Mystery
10th Claiming nw2L 5 furlongs – TURF
Aprilmayjune has lost in this conditioned claming class, and for this price tag; but unlike the others her races were on the tougher NYRA circuit. Ships down with slightly clouded form coming off a one-mile turf try – which is clearly beyond her best distance. With top turf rider Eibar Coa aboard she stalks the leaders and takes down the Sunday finale. Teshay is the lone runner to NOT have faced conditioned claimers. And her best races are clearly sprints as well. The turf at THIS super-sprint distance is the only question. Yolanda’s Dream ran by many of these in their last, and off that recent form, she has to be given a chance.
Selections
Aprilmayjune – Teshay – Yolanda’s Dream
The Bet: PASS
No comments:
Post a Comment