Won the first - shocking at 1/5 in a four horse field. Won the third, but was DQ'd in a weak call. Then made a bid and faded to fifth in the 4th....Good second at 10/1 in the 5th...sigh.....scratched my next investment; then 3rd at 9/2 in the 8th.....Miss World was 21/1 in the Gr 3 My Charmer and was within 2 of the lead at the top of the lane and moving....but hung, 4th. 4th again in the 10th; then the "Bet of the Day" in the Gr 3 Tropical Turf, Never On Sunday - his running line: 11th - 11th - 10th - 11th - 11th....wow.
Better luck today? I'm certainly due.....
Sunday December 5
1st Maiden Claiming 8 ½ furlongs
Butler Cabin is my top selection in spite of my saying after his last that I wouldn’t be selecting him again. But he finds a field today that is 0 – over 125 races. And the only two lightly raced horses have lost my more than 20 lengths in consecutive starts at this bottom level! At least Butler Cabin is dropping in class and moving turf to dirt. If he’s ever going to win, it should be here. All On Me has finished second in four of his last five, so his form is good. It’s very hard to support him at the windows with his 18/0-7-3 record thought! Bally Duff Bridge is lightly raced – that’s the good news. And he drops to this bottom level for the first time, that’s also good news. The bad news – “eased” and didn’t finish his first two starts! And in his last he did finish, but beaten 31 ¾ lengths (OK, who is counting at that point? Why not just say 32 lengths? WOW). Maybe the drop in class helps?
Selections
The Bet: PASS
2nd Claiming 5 ½ furlongs
B B’s Song holds a tactical advantage in that most of his rivals today want the lead, and one will be a deep closer – BB will be in the garden spot all alone. His past performances are littered with nothing but higher price tags. The main drawback is that he has been away from the races since February! He has a string of works going back 7 weeks, so he “should” be ready. The class play. King Combo is the deep closer who will benefit from a hot pace duel. He is also a fan of this distance with a record of 10/3-1-1. If the top one is not read and the pace heats up, look for the king to mow them all down late. Amy’s Buddha is the inside speed, and is coming off two straight victories at Hoosier Park
Selections
B B’s Song –King Combo – Amy’s Buddha
The Bet: PASS
3rd Maiden Claiming 8 furlongs – TURF
Two year old maiden colts, ALL of which are stepping onto the green for the first time. Educated guess at the best in this one, but I feel fairly strongly about the rail horse, Malicious. He showed good speed for a half mile in his last, his first try at a route of ground. What’s significant about that is he broke from post 10….today he draws the rail, and he has very good Tomlinson numbers that indicate he’ll take to the weeds. He also has top rider Manoel Cruz, who wins at a 21% clip for trainer Kathleen O’Connell. Could be long gone. Strategic Defense has yet to run competitively with four terrible efforts on paper – but, all on the main and he appears well-bred for the turf. Paco Lopez gets on board for trainer Eddie Plesa – a 17% winning combo. Duke of Doom is a first timer – tough to win first out going long on the grass – but he’s as good as any in here as they are all “first timers” on the grass. The Pinchin barn hits with 19% of it’s FTS, and Luis Saez signed on to ride.
Selections
Malicious – Strategic Defense – Duke of Doom
The Bet: $5 to win on Duke of Doom
4th Maiden Claiming 5 ½ furlongs
Dreamingof Lillian is a newcomer for Nick Canani / Frank Calabrese. Known all summer for their debut starters at Arlington Bleeker Street has been working locally for his debut and gets Paco Lopez today. His work on Nov. 6 when 5th best of 100 working points out his readiness here. Lotsa Noodles drops out of stakes company to the near bottom of the maiden ladder. Should find these much softer.
Selections
Dreamingof Lillian – Bleeker Street – Lotsa Noodles
The Bet: $10 to win on Dreamingof Lillian
5th Claiming nw2L 7 furlongs
The field of 11 gathered here account for 235 losses! Oh my! Close to 25 losses EACH! Good luck with your selections; my best advice is to grab a slice of pizza and look to race 6. But, here goes…..Sole Runner has less than 20 losses (16), so he qualifies for “lightly raced” in here! But he has shown good early speed at a mile, against a higher class level of 2L runners. The turnback and drop in class may do the trick against this collection of “I don’t want to win” types. Wild Rate has something none of the others do – a win at today’s seven furlongs. In his last he was the 6/5 favorite at today’s level and distance; came with his run but was five wide off the turn, which may explain his 3rd place finish. Another chance today? Texas Billy Boy exits that same 7 furlong race, and he’s finished 2nd in both 7 panel starts. Hard to like him on top with his 20/1-6-4 record though.
Selections
Sole Runner – Wild Rate – Texas
The Bet: PASS
6th Claiming 8 furlongs – TURF
Stepaside has been very formful since last April when dropped into this level. Goes for strong connections and this is “his distance” with a 3/2-0-0 record at the one mile route. Should sit a nice trip behind the MANY pace-setters and will be first on the attack spinning out of the turn. Musca has been up on the pace in his last two – coincidently his first two off the shelf – and gets a rider switch today…..that should mean a stalking trip, which has been a winning style for Musca. He has a nice 4/2-0-0 record at the mile distance. Champagne Brunch also has a nice record at the distance (10/3-0-2). He was a pace pressing third coming off a nearly one year layoff! With one under his belt he could get back on top with a move forward here.
Selections
Stepaside – Musca – Champagne Brunch
The Bet: $5 to win on Stepaside
7th Maiden Claiming 6 ½ furlongs
Chateau D’Kim has racing experience, has run well vs. better, and has been working very well for his return to the races. Ridden today by Paco Lopez, and trained by Eddie Plesa he looks poised to break out of the maiden ranks today if he runs his race. Riggan is a first time starter out of the David Fawkes barn. He can get them ready to win right out of the chute. Working steadily for his debut. Kenny’s Z the lone maiden special dropper. The lone caveat is that those two MSW starts resulted in being beaten by 18 ½ and 21 lengths – ouch!
Selections
Chateau D’Kim – Riggan – Kenny’s Z
The Bet: $5 to win on Chateau D’Kim
8th Starter Allowance 6 furlongs
Machisa looks very solid in here and I’m surprised he’s 6/1 on the morning line. He’s a stakes winner, albeit on the turf, and after faltering in the Foolish Pleasure on the main he shipped to Keeneland and set the pace for six furlongs in the Grade 3 Bourbon. Has worked spectacularly since his return with back-to-back bullets. Looks good on the drop in starter allowance company today. I’m A Playboy also drops out of stakes company into the starter allowance ranks. He stalked the pace all the way to mid-stretch in the Jack Price so he should appreciate the easier company today. Kippers ‘n Eggs romped in his debut by 8 widening lengths. Could be any kind?
Selections
Machisa – I’m A Playboy – Kippers ‘n Eggs
The Bet: $10 to win on Machisa
9th AOC 5 furlongs – TURF
Selections
The Bet: $10 to win on Brampton
10th Maiden Claiming 5 furlongs
Bringithomebruce looks to be a short-priced winner in the finale. Coming off a 14 MONTH LAYOFF he broke dead last of 11 and still quickly sprinted to the lead only to be worn down at the head of the lane. With one under his belt, and a sharp break today he should be hard to deny. Unlikely Hero will probably break near the front, but with the outside post will probably stalk the leader and be the first to challenge the leader. D’Hidalgo was beaten nearly 20 lengths in his debut – and that was last April at Gulfstream! But the winner, the second place horse, AND the show horse all came back to win their next outing…..doesn’t get much more KEY RACE than that! D’Hidalgo was over 60/1 that day, yet – in spite of the extended break – is listed as the 3/1 morning line favorite!
Selections
Bringithomebruce – Unlikely Hero – D’Hidalgo
The Bet: $10 to win on Bringithomebruce
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