Thursday December 9
1st Claiming nw2L 5 ½ furlongs
Lavender’s Spirit is a standout in here – IF she’s ready to run today. Today’s nw2L event features six runners who have all faltered at the conditioned 2L level, with the exception of Lavender who not only has not raced for a conditioned tag, but she has never even raced for a tag….PERIOD! She last raced in mid-February at Gulfstream, so that is the lone concern; however she won in her debut, proving she can fire fresh. And off that effort she was entered in a local stakes race – and she ran second. Lightly raced, she has every right to improve. Solid choice. The Pia’s Angel will most certainly set sail on the lead, and she should be able to fend off the pace challengers today – and there will be some; but the fact she has a single win in 15 starts and SIX runner-up finishes tells me that the pressure will probably cause another bridesmaid finish today. Anabranch comes off a six week break and is relatively lightly raced. She has also shown the ability to rate and pass horses (ironically, she’s only done it once – when she won!).
Selections
Lavender’s Spirit – The Pia’s Angel – Anabranch
The Bet: $10 to win on Lavender’s Spirit
2nd Claiming nw2L 8 furlongs – TURF
Don’t Lock Me Out shares many of the characteristics as the first race selection – a runner in a 2L event who is lightly raced and never raced for a conditioned tag, much less a tag at all. “Lock” ran two turf routes in MSW company that earned Beyers that would make him a runaway winner today, IF he is able to reproduce those efforts. The drop from allowance company to conditioned claimers might just enable such a wake-up. Solidly bred for the grass, Don’t Lock Me Out looks to have all the keys to make it to the winner’s circle today. Brad’s Kitten just broke his maiden – and it was on the main track, albeit the synthetic at Keeneland. He has a turf effort that was a solid closing effort for rider Jose Castanon, and he is lightly raced. If able to move forward while facing winners for the first time he could be a dangerous customer today. My Pocket Ace tries turf for the first time today, and if Luis Saez can get him to sit just off the leaders, he may enjoy the weeds enough to score at a fair price.
Selections
Don’t Lock Me Out – Brad’s Kitten – My Pocket Ace
The Bet: $5 to win on Don’t Lock Me Out
3rd Maiden Special 6 ½ furlongs
Tellum Berto appears to be the right pick at the right price as there will be at least two overbet false favorites in the field today. Tellum Berto has pressed and dueled through :44 and change pace calls, which would put him on a clear lead in here. At 5/1 on the morning line he may well go off at a higher price than that when the latch is sprung on the gate a little after . Macarthur Causeway turns back from a 9 furlong route to a sprint on the main. While he does show a good effort sprinting, it was not turning back like this; complicating matters is his front-running route style. Not sure he’s ready to face “true sprint pace pressure” but if he can he runs quicker than most. Aly’scat is a blue-blood from owners Stuart Janey and the Phipps stable, and trained by Hall of Famer Shug McGaughey. Not known for his first-timers, but the class of the field may come through in spite of lack of experience.
Selections
Tellum Berto – Macarthur Causeway – Aly’scat
The Bet: $5 to win on Tellum Berto
4th Maiden Claiming 6 furlongs
Houston’s Royalty has run back-to-back 2nds at this level and looks primed to score in here today. Luis Saez wins 24% for this barn, which adds to the appeal. Sanchez showed brief speed against better in his last. He’ll be a huge price, but COULD get brave on the front end. Prayinforarichgirl ran an improved 2nd in his last, and if able to overcome the far outside post he’d have to be given a chance today.
Selections
The Bet: PASS
5th Claiming 6 furlongs
Atomic Flea has beaten most of these, and has a very solid record at the distance of 11/3-3-3. She looks to keep on her winning ways in here today. Magic In The Stars ran a huge race when dropped into this level last out, drawing off by over 10 lengths. A repeat, or anything close to it would romp home easily today. Crown Glory will be running late, and if the pace is hot, she’s one to reckon with.
Selections
Atomic Flea – Magic In The Stars – Crown Glory
The Bet: PASS
6th AOC 5 furlongs – TURF
Family Holiday is the inside speed, and if the rains hold off, allowing this one to remain on the inner course, he will be LONG gone. Holiday has been on a clear lead before weakening in both his last two, but today he drops from an AOC written for non-winners of TWO races into a non-winners of ONE race….because he’s being raced with a tag today. Enough to make a difference here. Joey the Scholar loves the Calder sod, and perhaps may improve as he’s first off the claim today. He is a stalk and finish kind of runner, and has passed horses in the stretch with fractions similar to what Family Holiday will set today. Citizen’s Arrest may run well enough on the grass to win, but he appears to me to be a much stronger candidate should this be run on the main track. He drops significantly in class for Todd Pletcher, and any runner sent out by his barn is dangerous here.
Selections
Family Holiday – Joey the Scholar – Citizen’s Arrest
The Bet: $10 to win on Family Holiday (turf only)
$5 to win on Citizen’s Arrest on the main
7th Allowance 5 ½ furlongs
Dream of Atlantis was last seen dueling with Graded stakes winners Coffee Boy and D’Funnybone this summer. He’s been off since July, running in the Grade 2 Carry Back, and has been working consistently for three weeks for his return. Lightly raced with license to improve, he may have too much talent for this non-winners of one group. Apriority was a dominant winner in his last through quick fractions – how good is he? My reservation is that his last was his maiden winner…can he duel/set the same kind of pace against winners? Not willing to gamble that at a short price. Royal Tricon may be in the right place at the right time. Coming out of a non-winners of 2-LIFETIME, is not typically the credentials you want to bring into open allowance company. BUT….if the pace is hot, he is a confirmed closer, and will get a ground-saving trip today…..maybe at a big price!
Selections
Dream of Atlantis – Apriority – Royal Tricon
The Bet: PASS
8th Maiden Claiming 8 ½ furlongs
My best advice for today’s finale – beat the traffic and head on home! A lowly group of runners, and I use that term lightly. You’re not likely to see many of these ever leave the maiden ranks, and the ones that do will be living in the non-winners of two lifetime class for quite a while; but, someone has to win! Carlotta Garcia may offer a little value for her true chances of winning. She’s only been out five times stateside, and has been in the money in two of those efforts. All of them were sprints, and she appears to have bloodlines to route. Today she gets her chance against as soft a bunch as she may ever see. Lynn’s Princess may be on or near the lead and has a good of form as any of these. Top rider Manoel Cruz rides for the second time after securing her 3rd 2nd place finish – well beaten, but easily clear of third. Have to wonder about her 0 for 32 record though. Pyrite Smokin has not had the opportunity to be beaten for this low of a tag, or in a race INTENDED to be run on the main track. Off a layoff and with some fair works, this could be her best chance to show what she’s got.
Selections
Carlotta Garcia – Lynn
The Bet: PASS
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