December 22 Selections

HAPPY HOLIDAYS!

Wednesday December 22

12:25    1^st         Claiming          5 ½ furlongs                                                                                                                

Proud Trippi is very lightly raced; and though she only has a single win, she drops to an all-time new low today.  Needs to be patiently handled today.  Joan’s Royal Dawn is a 12x winner in her career, five of which last season.  Second off the shelf today may do the trick.  Tiger at Nite is a deep closer, so she’ll need help up front to show her best today.

Selections

Proud Trippi – Joan’s Royal Dawn – Tiger at Nite

The Bet:  PASS

12:50       2^nd     Maiden Claiming         7 furlongs                                                                                                        

Aim and Fire takes the most dramatic drop in racing going from MSW to a claiming affair today.  Trainer David Fawkes scores 18% with 2^nd time starters, and 27% when jockey Luis Saez is on board.  Better yet, Aim & Fire ran fourth of nine in his debut last out, from which the second place runner came to score as MUCH the best.  BIG TIME today!  As de Copas debuts today for a trainer that has a solid $2.26 ROI with his firsters.  On top of that, he shows a quick work in preparation of today, and could be the upset selection. 

Rosemont Drive

ran for a $75K tag in New York before moving here for today’s start.  On the circuit move alone he qualifies.

Selections

Aim and Fire – As de Copas –

Rosemont Drive

The Bet:  $10 to win on Aim and Fire

1:15         3^rd     Maiden Claiming         8 ½ furlongs – TURF                                                                                        

Sunday, race track announcer Bobby Newman announced that with all the rain on Saturday, handicappers would be wise to handicap assuming we are not on the grass today.  Old Parr debuts today with off-track breeding as well as adequate turf breeding.  If able to break his trainer’s 0-for-13 first time starter jinx he can score at a nice price with top jock Luis Saez on board.  License to Steal was a late running fourth in his debut.  Many will believe that he’s stepping up in class today without realizing that the price structure on the dirt and turf here at Calder are significantly different.  He is facing much the same level today, and will rate a solid chance here.  Alejandro is stuck on the AE list, and should this remain on the grass and should he get in, he would probably justify his 9/5 morning line.

Selections

Old Parr – License to Steal – Alejandro

The Bet:  PASS

1:41         4^th     Claiming          1 mile / 70 yards                                                                                                         

Summerlucky is almost certain to be an inflated price today as the likely favorite appears best on paper, and Summer comes here from running at Mountaineer Park.  However, if a handicapper digs a little deeper he’d find that Summer was very competitive at Churchill Downs, and on that basis he will be competitive here.  Should there be pace pressure, it will be Summerlucky they’ll have to hold off.  Speedy King is the aforementioned likely chalk.  Speedy is indeed that – SPEEDY!  He has wired back-to-back-to-back fields.  And there doesn’t appear to be much pace in here.  A four-peat is not out of the question;  BUT…..I’m not so keen on the fact that today he’s first off the claim, taken AWAY FROM Team Calabrese.  Delaware Manor has a less than inspiring record of 51/6-10-5 would make me hesitant to put him on top.  He does get a favorable pace scenario and maybe, just maybe he can get his 7^th win here today.

Selections

Summerlucky – Speedy King – Delaware Manor

The Bet:  $5 to win on Summerlucky

2:09         5^th     Maiden Claiming         5 ½ furlongs                                                                                                    

Ceylon Star debuts today for trainer Ron Spatz who scores 22% with these, with an amazing $4.83 ROI.  Star has been working steadily for her debut and appears to have found a good spot. 

Bleeker Street

broke behind the field in her debut two and a half weeks ago, but still closed for third.  With a clean break she could be the first to reach the wire.  Full of Love has shown good early speed against better at both Delaware and Laurel.  If able to clear and relax against the softer price level, she could be long gone.

Selections

Ceylong Star –

Bleeker Street

– Full of Love

The Bet:  PASS

2:39         6^th     Starter Allowance        8 ½ furlongs – TURF                                                                                        

Marquet Cat and Maddy’s Crowd renew their rivalry today, and even though Maddy has beaten Marquet in their last three meetings I’m going with the Cat to spring the upset.  Why?  First of all, Marquet Cat has a race over the course and is cutting back in distance.  He also looks to be the speed of the speed in here.  AND today Maddy’s Crowd is coming off an extended break, so perhaps he’s not quite ready to run down a loose on the lead runner.  Lucas Brady is the local runner to fear.  He’s only been on grass three times, and though winless he just missed closing stoutly against FAR superior company than he meets today.  Even more appealing on the main as he owns five wins on the main.

Selections

Marquet Cat – Maddy’s Crowd – Lucas Brady

The Bet:

On the turf:  $10 to win on Marquet Cat

On the main:  $10 to win on Lucas Brady

3:08         7^th     Claiming nw3L                        7 furlongs                                                                                                           

The analysis for the 7^th must start with what you make of Devilish Silver.  She’s listed as the 2/1 morning line favorite and you either will believe she’s a deserving chalk, or a strong play-against.  If you are the former you need look no further than her back-to-back scores in Kentucky at today’s 7 furlong distance where she earned identical Beyers of 76 – which would blow this field away.  If you are the latter you only need look at her last where she was a well-beaten 8^th and earned a 44 Beyer, backing up her previous race, a Beyer of 51 at Hoosier Park.  I believe you can make a legitimate case to toss all the races going back to the paired 76 speed figures.  In her last she was off a layoff, broke 11^th and was late getting into the game.  In the two prior she was up against AOC types, and was going a mile.  In fact, if you look at the three back race she did make the lead at the stretch call before fading.  Finally, I think you can expect a return to her best as she’s first off the claim for Robert Dibona who wins with 26% of those types.  His stats with 2 off the layoff and a break of 30-60 days are also stellar.  For me, it’s Devilish Silver as much the best.  She’s Trippin North is the second choice – for both me and on the morning line.  She too has valid excuses for her last two, and if able to run back to her 3-back race, which was at today’s distance, she would give the top one all she can handle….especially if she’s not on her “A” game for today’s event.  Speed Angel tops my “all-chalk trifecta” ticket.  She faced 2L foes in her last but was a dominant winner.  Not out of the question to see her continue her fine recent form today.

Selections

Devilish Silver – She’s Trippin North – Speed Angel

The Bet:  $15 to win on Devilish Silver

3:37         8^th     Allowance       6 ½ furlongs                                                                                                                

Evil Queen gets the nod to spring the upset in this first level allowance test.  This in spite of being a nose winner in her maiden victory in her last – typically not the kind of horse you want to play back.  However, today she seems to be getting just the right set-up, and perhaps her placement in this particular spot is an indication that her connections have “figured out” what works for her.  Looking over her past performances here’s what you see:  She starts her career with two super sprints, and in the second is a late closing second – stretched to 7 panels she wins and earns a top Beyer;  then she is stretched out to a mile and a mile-70, both in stakes company – way over her head; then two tries routing on the grass – wrong surface and distance.  In her last they turn her back on the main track to a sprint and she repeats the top Beyer.  Today’s distance smacks her right between the eyes of her two best efforts, and it’s nice to see that in spite of the wrong placements she has moved forward on the Beyer scale in five straight.  At 8/1, she’s a value play.  The Marikutana would be my top selection if she wasn’t coming back on such short notice – six days.  Or, if that last race had been a toss-out.  However in her last, a two-turn grass event, she was flying late in an all-out effort.  I think it’s a bit much to ask her to turn back in distance, go turf to dirt, and repeat her best on just six days rest.  But if she does, she would not be a surprise, especially with the apprentice rider up who’s hitting 50% for this barn.  Livingtheblues is one of many speed types in here, but as she has shown twice – including his last – if you leave her alone on the front she will run away and hide.

Selections

Evil Queen – The Marikutana – Livingtheblues

The Bet:  $5 to win on Evil Queen

4:06         9^th     AOC                 5 furlongs – TURF                                                                                                       

Again, the issue here is the surface – are we on the grass or not?  I’ll take the cop-out route to protect my winning percentage by picking a “turf only” on top J  Little Miss Julien has scored on the turf sprinting in the past, and will be a bit of a price here today – but I think she rates a much better chance than her odds will give her.  If you look at her last 3 starts in particular she was breaking from the outside posts, especially the last two.  Go four back and you see she has a set of 3 races where she makes the lead, in spite of the mid-pack post, and runs a strong race.  Today she gets the rail, so I believe there should be no surprise to her strategy – gun to the front – and if she makes the lead, she will be tough to run down, especially if able to clear off.  Always A Party is lightly raced, and if able to run back to her MSW victory two back, where she stalked the pace, she could be very dangerous in here….especially if a pace duel develops.  Depending on the make-up of the field should it come off the grass, I’d give local performer Wicked Woman of NY a chance, especially at a big price.  She’s been able to perform on/near the front both on and off the grass.  Should the right combination of runners scratch out, she could be the upsetter.

Selections

Little Miss Julien – Always A Party – Wicked Woman of NY

The Bet:  PASS

4:35         10^th    Maiden Claiming         5 furlongs                                                                                                        

Seattle Club gets top billing by default in the finale of this special holiday card.  With eight of the eleven lined up today being MULTIPLE losers at this bottom maiden claiming level, you almost have to go with someone who has not yet proven to be a loser.  Seattle Club fits that bill and has strong human connections in Paco Lopez for Eddie Plesa.  Anything better than even money is probably stealing in this spot.  Friday’s Storm is also a first-timer, and has a bullet prep for today.  But I’m reluctant to put her on top with a trainer who’s 2-for-42 on the year.  Ouch!  Black Silver is a mirror image of Friday’s Storm – first time starter, bullet prep, trainer issue…..here you have a trainer who in 2010 has gone 0-for-36….YIKES!

Selections

Seattle Club – Friday’s Storm – Black Silver

The Bet:  $10 to win on Seattle Club