December 26 Selections

Sunday December 26

12:25    1^st         Maiden Claiming         8 ½ furlongs                                                                                                    

Pistol Peg is lightly raced and makes her debut in the cellar for the first time today.  What’s key to her chances today, in addition to the fact that she has NOT been beaten multiple times at this level, is that in her last she was beaten over 17 lengths, but she was STILL SECOND BEST!  In fact she was clear of the show horse by 3 open lengths and it was another 3+ lengths to the other 7 runners.  She moves forward today off that drop to get her picture taken for the initial time.  Call Our Girl shares many of the same characteristics with the top choice – lightly raced, second best in her last, dropping to the bottom for the first time.  In fact, she probably will be the favorite with top rider Manny Cruz on board, and with the winner of her last coming right back to score.  But I’m turned off by the comment, “…lugged in badly in the stretch..” off her last.  I’ll let her beat me at a short price.  Magicpage scares me – not because of her record, which is a dismal 21/0-2-1, but because she appears to be the only runner who has ever been on the front end.  With a 10 pound bug rider today you can be sure she’ll be gunning to the front.  Here’s hoping that she backs up for the 22^nd time today!

Selections

Pistol Peg – Call Our Girl – Magicpage

The Bet:  PASS

12:49       2^nd     Claiming nw2L                        5 ½ furlongs                                                                                                       

Bling’s Rising Star made her first start in 2L company, for a higher tag, in her last.  Right away she was eliminated as she was “…steadied at the break….” and was last.  She failed to show any competitive speed, and was laid off.  She returns today on the drop having been working steadily at Gulfstream.  Her work two back was fairly quick, indicating she may be ready to fire today with Elvis Trujillo on board.  The logical favorite is Odalys Halo who exhibits the characteristics of the kind of runner I like to play in these spots.  She’s never been in for a tag, much less for 2L tag;  but today is only her third start, and though she broke her maiden at first asking it was a surprise as she was 10/1 that day, then an even bigger price in her last, and showed absolutely nothing.  To drop to the bottom, 2L in just the third start seems to say to me that they don’t have a lot of faith.  Putitbacklisa debuted with a poor effort, but in her last two she ran very well, up near the pace.  Another step forward in her first try against winners would give her a chance.

Selections

Bling’s Rising Star – Odalys Halo – Putitbacklisa

The Bet:  PASS

1:14         3^rd     Maiden Claiming         7 furlongs                                                                                                        

Oriental Queen may offer some value in spite of the fact that she owns several key angles that generally point out winners.  The first is one of the most powerful angles in handicapping – Early Speed in a Maiden Special with a drop today in for a tag.  This is the most powerful class move in racing, and the combination of early speed/class drop is always an indicator of an impending good effort.  AND….the briefer the early speed, the better the price!  In her debut she dueled for a quarter before tossing in the towel completely.  The second big time angle is she exits what is now a SUPER KEY race.  The winner of that maiden special was Evil Queen, who came back on Thursday’s card off of the maiden win to beat first level allowance in her first start against winners!  Finally, top jockey Manny Cruz elects to stay in spite of being on board when Oriental Queen was beaten by 25 lengths in her debut. 15/1 on the morning line, I’ll take it!  Dreaming of Rose dropped from MSW in Chicago to start for this tag level in her Calder debut for the dynamite team of Frank Calabrese and Nick Canani.  Off at 4/5 that day she was ELEVEN clear of the field…..but, she was also 11 back of the winner that day!  One more try.  Laurel’s Landing debuts for David Fawkes, a 16% angle, and has Jeffrey Sanchez on board.  Sanchez scores at a very healthy 24% with a $2.63 ROI for Fawkes.  With a string of steady works, Laurel may be ready to score in her debut.

Selections

Oriental Queen – Dreaming of Rose – Laurel’s Landing

The Bet:  $5 to win on Oriental Queen

1:40         4^th     Claiming          8 furlongs – TURF                                                                                                       

Rain is in the forecast for Sunday as a cold front moves through the area, so let’s keep an eye out for both turf and dirt win candidates…… Prime Precision has been entered in 12 straight turf races, but has actually been on the grass four times.  Though he’s run well on the off going, he’s run better on the grass.  His Beyers:  77 – 78 – 80 – 62.  But the DRF speed ratings for those four races:  97 – 97 – 98 – 96.  Me thinks it’s a bad speed rating.  And if that’s the case, Prime Precision may be best today at a price!  Road Track’s Dream is fresh off a break for Frank Calabrese/Nick Canani.  His last three races were a photo loss, photo loss, and a win – all at odds on.  Go Go Pink looks to have the best early lick and will probably try to take these gate to wire.  Dangerous if loose.

Selections

Prime Precision – Road Track’s Dream – Go Go Pink

The Bet:  $5 to win on Prime Precision (turf or dirt)

2:05         5^th     Claiming          7 furlongs                                                                                                                    

Truthbetold goes first off the claim for a trainer that wins with 24% of these, and when jockey Jose Alvarez is aboard – like today – they win a big 34% of the time with an excellent ROI of $2.72.  Huff’n Hughes is also first off the claim for a barn that does even better – 26% - off the claim.  But, not too keen on the short price and the turnback move today – also though Paco Lopez is a very good rider, his 9% winning avg. here is not inspiring.  Yes It’s Dan has had two big wins in his last three starts.  Yet another move forward today and he’s a contender.

Selections

Truthbetold – Huff’n Hughes – Yes It’s Dan

The Bet:  PASS

2:31         6^th     Maiden Special           5 ½ furlongs                                                                                                    

Shezsocool was the 9/5 favorite in her debut, and was a non-threatening fourth, though she did dispute the pace for a half.  Comes off a break and ships from Churchill to South Florida – a hidden class drop.  Hundred Acre debuts today and has been working strongly.  With top rider Manny Cruz on board he’s a longshot contender.  Lil Miss G was a very good second in his debut – but for a tag.  Stepped up to MSW company and was a good third.  Give her a chance also.

Selections

Sezsocool – Hundred Acre – Lil Miss G

The Bet:  $5 to win on Shezsocool

3:01         7^th     Claiming nw2L                        8 ½ furlongs – TURF                                                                                           

Lucky Irish Day has run two of the best two-turn turf races in the field, earning Beyers of 77 and 76, the former coming off a 5 furlong turf sprint……Lucky’s last race à a five furlong turf sprint!  Look out!  My Pocket Ace may be the speed of the race, especially if it comes off the turf and there are scratches.  Paco Lopez will try to ration out his speed and take them gate to wire.  Dinahmite Sal never seen a tag, much less a 2L tag.  Drops in here to a new low off a series of SEVEN straight turf Beyers that would win or at least be very competitive.

Selections

Lucky Irish Day – My Pocket Ace – Dinahmite Sal

The Bet:  $10 to win on Lucky Irish Day (turf only)

3:31         8^th     Allowance       6 furlongs                                                                                                                    

This race is simply LOADED with speed, so it sets up wonderfully for a stalker/finisher….such is Royal Tricon.  He has run four consecutive improving Beyers, topped off with a rallying 2^nd in his last earning a lifetime Beyer top.  He looks set up perfectly today to make yet another step forward.  D’Hidalgo is hot as a fire cracker, having romped in two straight.  He stretches out today and comes back on just seven days rest with a handful of pace rivals.  Dream of Atlantis has the far outside post, and if this helps him to rate off the speed he would have a good chance.

Selections

Royal Tricon – D’Hidalgo – Dream of Atlantis

The Bet:  $10 to win on Royal Tricon

4:00         9^th     AOC                 5 ½ furlongs                                                                                                                

With seven of the eight entered today typically running on the lead, and several of those consistently putting up sub-:22 first quarters, this race set-up begs for a stalker/finisher.  Such a horse may be a bit of a price – Bidham.  What may mislead many handicappers today is that Bidham appears to be poorly placed as he is coming out of a mile race, which was preceded by a 7 furlong race.  Coping with the hot pace of a 5 ½ furlong race may seem too much here;  but to the astute handicapper, I point out to you he is a true horse-for-the-distance with a record of 7/3-1-0, in fact the combined record at the distance of the rest of the field is 12/3-4-3, so one-half the wins at the distance belong to Bidham.  Further, if one were to examine his works since that mile effort you’d note a bullet, best of 32 and a 5^th best of 51 works in his latest.  Obviously his speed has been sharpened.  I look for him to take back just off the dueling front-runners, save ground, move out on the turn and draw clear through the final furlong – SOLID at a nice price.  Interestingly, the entire rest of the wins at the distance belong to one horse, Prince Joshua.  And in a money-added allowance like this, one key is to look for a horse with stakes experience – such a horse would be Prince Joshua.  However, I’m discouraged by his ELEVEN race losing streak since winning the Select Stakes at Monmouth over 16 months ago, and the fact that the rider (top jockey Manny Cruz) wins a lowly 8% for this barn.  Also, his best Beyers from ’09 are nearly 10 to 15 points higher than what he’s run lately.  Gaucho, how good is he?  He has won three consecutive races, and has won fresh.  He is lightly raced, and with the exception of his debut he has NEVER been headed at the quarter call.  As often happens, if the other riders see all the pace and they all back off, Gaucho would be the lone speed, and very dangerous.

Selections

Bidham – Prince Joshua – Gaucho

The Bet:  $10 to win on Bidham

4:30         10^th    Maiden Claiming         8 furlongs – TURF                                                                                           

Slick Vic is bred all over for the off-going, and should the love the sloppy track – he’s the inside speed, and if there are scratches and/or the field is left with runners wanting grass he can spring the upset on the front end under apprentice Jonathan Delgado.  At 8/1 on the morning line, let’s end this post-holiday card with a bang!  Act of Defiance has only been out twice, and that was a debut win and an early speed-quit vs. allowance types. He fits the profile for a 2L event, but I’ll go against because (a) it’s his first route, (b) seems a bit quick to drop to 2L off of one try against winners, (c) he’s not as well bred for off-going, and (d) he’s coming back in less than 2 weeks.  Raging Sea appears to be a legitimate longshot danger at 10/1.  Ridden by top jockey J R Velasquez, he showed stalking speed from post ten in his first route, on the turf.  If he stays in the field  - off the grass – and if able to relax, he could be a danger.  Should it stay on the turf, he would be my upset play.

Selections

Slick Vic – Act of Defiance – Raging Sea

The Bet:  $10 to win on Slick Vic (off the turf)

$10 to win on Raging Sea (on the turf)

5:00         5^th     California Breeders’ Champion Stakes            7 furlongs                                                                    

(3) Gab Power stalked the sensational Comma to the Top to the head of the lane in the Grade 3 Generous Stakes, going a mile on the turf in his last.  Actually made up a length on the leader (while dropping to 4^th) through the stretch.  The turn back to 7 furlongs, and the switch back to the main should set him up nicely today.

The Bet:  $10 to win on (#3) Gab Power

5:30         6^th     Grade 1 La Brea Stakes                                   7 furlongs                                                                    

(3) Switch was my selection in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint, and she ran a bang-up second that day in spite of a little trouble after shipping across the country….shows her ability to handle real dirt.  Thinking that the Test winner, Champagne d’Oro will get company on the front end and it should set up nicely for the stalking trip I see Switch getting in here today.  Looks solid to me.

The Bet:  $15 to win on (#3) Switch

6:00         7^th     Grade 2 Sir Beaufort Stakes                8 furlongs – TURF                                                                   

TODAY’S BEST:  (5) SIDNEY’S CANDY was ultra impressive in the Grade 2 La Jolla this summer, and would have romped in the Grade 1 Shoemaker Mile had there not been “issues” regarding an imminent sale.  I believe that skipping this race not only cost him a Grade 1 but also compromised his chances in the Breeders’ Cup Mile.  No telling if he could have held off the super-mare Goldikova, but in spite of the extended break, shipping across the country, and facing the best milers in the world he set the pace to mid-stretch.  Beaten a mere 3 lengths of some of the best horses on grass, he should find this Grade 2 group much softer.  The only issue is a less-than-firm course with all the recent rain.  Shouldn’t matter – he’s much the best today.

The Bet:  $30 to win on Sidney’s Candy

6:30         8^th     Grade 1 Malibu Stakes                                    7 furlongs                                                                                   

(9) Twirling Candy was unbeaten through his first four and being seriously considered for the Breeders’ Cup Classic.  High praise indeed for such a lightly raced 3-year-old.  Disappointed under a new rider in the Goodwood vs. older for the first time, and since his connections have backed off.  Returns to face straight 3-year-olds in a one turn race.  Should stalk the leaders and reassert himself as a top runner, and one to fear in the handicap division – perhaps even the 2011 Breeders’ Cup!  (I’ll be there!)

The Bet:  $15 to win on (#9) Twirling Candy