Saturday December 11
1st Maiden Special 8 ½ furlongs – TURF
Robynwood draws the outside post, but should have ample time to tuck in just off the leaders heading into the clubhouse turn. This will put him in a perfect striking position to win this event which has a puzzling pace picture, with two or three who appear to be near the front, but don’t really want the lead. They should weaken, and this will enable Robyn to get the jump on the deep closers. Lightly raced on the turf and under Manny Cruz, Robynwood looks like a strong win candidate today. Extraextraordinary is very lightly raced, and can fire fresh. With Rajiv Maragh in town to ride he should be closing while saving ground along the fence; a definite stretch threat if he can get the trip. Ritual is another late runner who’s put up speed figures good enough to win this. However, the fact he’s yet to earnt the place money is a bit of a concern to me.
Selections
Robynwood – Extraextraordinary – Ritual
The Bet: $5 to win on Robynwood
2nd Claiming 6 furlongs
Whodidntknowthat has been racing exclusively in allowance/aoc company all year, and has been competitive. But he has gone 0 for 14, so he qualifies for today’s conditioned claimer. If able to maintain his “form” as measured in Beyer speed figures he should get that elusive first win of 2010. Great Victorian is another who is dropping into this condition for the first time, and he has the added benefit that he’s only been out four times. He’s faced much lower quality than the top one, but still, they were in open company. Mad Mecke was second at this level last out, and has been improving with each of his last three starts. A stalking trip against contenders with issues may be the right mix for him to break through today.
Selections
Whodidntknowthat – Great Victorian – Mad Mecke
The Bet: PASS
3rd Claiming nw3L 8 ½ furlongs – TURF
Barbaro’s Revenge has run several races that are good enough to beat this field by open lengths. If he’s got his “A” game on today, and gets the trip – he had some issues last out – he should get his picture taken today with the drop in claiming price. Variteck is 0-for-18 on the grass, but today he is the inside speed and could get loose, and get brave. The chances are more likely he sets the pace to the stretch before giving way…..but we did see a runner Thursday with a 15/1-6-0 record get brave on the front end, so you never know! Precious Beans ran a winning race at this level two back; then in his last he was in against open allowance company. Back to the proper level today should get him in contention.
Selections
Barbaro’s Revenge – Variteck – Precious Beans
The Bet: $5 to win on Barbaro’s Revenge
4th Maiden Claiming 7 furlongs
Lizard’s Repent is 12/1 on the morning line and it appears to me that he is a legitimate contender in here. Two back, at this distance he stalked the leader from just off the pace and finished second. The race looks worse than it is as he appears to have lost nearly 6 lengths through the stretch, when in fact it was simply the winner drawing off – Lizard was a clear second of nine that day. Today he moves to an inside post and should be the first to attack the front runners, one of which is just to his inside…… Theslayerinthelane. With post two, and the best early speed, he should be clear early. He set the pace and JUST missed two back before stretching to a mile in his last and only lasting through a half mile. With that foundation he should stand some catching. However he loses ground in the stretch in nearly every race, so I won’t be investing here. Grove Hall was a nose away from winning his debut against a step lower; off of that effort he’s run two consecutive races against TOUGHER than today. With drop down he could be dangerous at a price.
Selections
Lizard’s Repent – Theslayerinthelane – Grove Hall
The Bet: PASS
5th Maiden Special 8 ½ furlongs – TURF
Wildcatter debuts for Christophe Clemente with Joe Bravo in the saddle. Those two are deadly at the Tropical meet, especially on the lawn. Clemente wins 20% of his first-timers, and this one is well-bred for turf. He’s been working steadily since September for his first start, and should be a fair price. The Waco Kid could move up to the top slot before post time – why would I change my mind? The Waco Kid ran 4th in the Appleton Stakes last out – yes, a stakes race as a maiden – so you know he has some talent. Also, his two turf Beyers were 30 points better than his dirt efforts. But what draws my attention, enough to perhaps chance my selection, is that in that stakes race he ran right behind AndILikeItToo, who is my top selection on the Friday card. Should And…. run well, especially at a short price, I’d be tempted to give Waco SECO ND in the stakes race in front of AndILikeItToo. Adding to his appeal is the fact he was second to the stakes winner two back in a maiden race – out of which the tandem ran 1-2 again. Even at a short price – should “I Like” run well – he’d be worth a double investment.
Selections
Wildcatter – The Waco
The Bet: PASS **
** IF AndILikeItToo wins Friday……
$5 to win on The Waco
6th Starter Allowance 1 mile / 70 yards
Sicilian Honor headlines this very competitive starter allowance. In five of his last eight races Sicilian has been claimed by a new outfit, twice being claimed back by the Christ Gratios barn. And in those eight races he’s never been worse than 2nd, including wins in three of the last four. As good as any of these, rallying from mid-pack with a lot of speed on the front end here. Intense Elvira has run at this exact level twice, and wired both fields, drawing off by 4 widening lengths, and then by FOURTEEN lengths! If able to get clear, he’d be really dangerous – and he has shown the ability to sit just off the pace. Genuine Diamond is the “genuine” favorite here, having won by open lengths at this level, and showing a 5/3-1-0 record at the distance. The only issue here is his conditioning as he comes off a 3 month break.
Selections
Sicilian Honor – Intense Elvira – Genuine Diamond
The Bet: PASS
7th Starter Allowance 6 ½ furlongs
Peaceadaaction has reeled off two straight wins and looked good doing it. On yesterday’s card the runner who he defeated two back returned to win as much the best at 3/5. Looks like three in a row today for “Peace.” Chon has also won two in a row, and his appeal is that he has come from off the pace to win his last two. Should the front-end become a pressure cooker, he looks like the likely repeater. Raging Sea is listed at 15/1 with Eibar Coa up today. What appeals is that he is turning back from a nine furlong turf route, and that should put him in the role of deep closer. There may be just enough speed to set up his late run!
Selections
Peaceadaaction – Chon – Raging Sea
The Bet: PASS
8th AOC 9 furlongs – TURF
Prizes Galore comes from well off the pace, but not from out of the clouds; this may bode well for her chances as there appears to be a plethora of speed today. And at the 9 furlong distance it will be the runner with the late momentum that carries the day today. Marquet Madness will most certainly go to the lead under Elvis Trujillo. Ironically the trainer also is the trainer of front-running Grade 1 winner Presious Passion, who Trujillo
Selections
Prizes Galore – Marquet Madness – Hannah’s Princess
The Bet: $5 to win on Prizes Galore
9th Allowance 6 furlongs
Joe’s Blazing Action has run five times and earned four Beyers of: 9 – 5 – 21 – and 2. And he’s the pick? What the??? Well, two back he earned an 88 while drawing off to win at 11-1. At first glance you’d say that race was the aberration. But, reading between the lines I see he’s got blinkers on today; fired a BEST OF 83 bullet for this! AND…..today, top rider Luis Saez takes over. Now I ask you, why would he take a mount who’d just earned a Beyer of 2, and had four times failed to threaten? Because he’s going to run big today perhaps? And at 10/1, he’s a solid UPSET selection! Hugh and Me is a deserving morning line favorite under Jersey Joe Bravo. He’s won two straight and earned solid speed figures. The other logical contender is Gold Cash who is on the improve, comes off a lifetime best speed figure, and stalked a very quick pace in his last.
Selections
Joe’s Blazing Action – Hugh and Me – Gold Cash
The Bet
$5 to win on Joe’s Blazing Action
10th Allowance 7 ½ furlongs – TURF
Almuraad marks the second upset selection in a row for me – he is a rallying type, and there is an ABUNDANCE of speed in here; quality speed. But they look to burn each other out and set it up for a late runner. What really draws my attention is that Almuraad won on the grass, here, two back, earning a LIFETIME best speed figure AT THIS DISTANCE! No other runner has had success at this unique distance. They running style, the pace scenario, and a chance to repeat at the distance on a course he’s run over already makes him a good pick at 8/1. Exchanging Kisses has been in front at the first call in 8 of 10 turf races showing. He’ll be gunning for the lead, and he’s held on well in stakes company. If allowed to dictate the pace, he will be dangerous. Mean Sax could also surprise (10/1 on the morning line) with top rider Eibar Coa up. One of his best efforts was a stalking win, here, going a mile (similar distance). He could be right behind the leaders and be the one to run down.
Selections
Almuraad – Exchanging Kisses – Mean Sax
The Bet: $5 to win on Almuraad
11th Grade 3 Fred Hooper 9 furlongs
Mambo Meister would qualify for a “Bet of the Day” status were this race being run at any distance (or surface) other than today’s nine furlongs. In four tries Mambo has yet to win OR finish second. That being said, he’s been working strongly since falling at 4/5 here; this is his favorite track, and he’s put up multiple triple Beyers. Should be able to stalk the pace and move to the lead at the furlong marker…..can he hold on to the wire is the question? Dream Maestro would be a nice upset selection, especially since he is 9/2-3-2 at the distance. But that 0-for-13 record in 2010 does not make me go running to the windows. St. Maximus Galo is lightly raced and will be stalking the pace. He has room for improvement, and if able to get the distance, and IF able to step forward he could be the right one. There are several others who have the class to win today, but they all want the front end. Where’s the wire???
Selections
Mambo Meister – Dream Maestro – St. Maximus Galo
The Bet: $10 to win on Mambo Meister
12th Maiden Claiming 7 furlongs
Ells Applause debuted two weeks ago going two turns on the turf in Maiden Special company. Showed very little that day; but today she drops to near the bottom of the ladder, goes route to sprint, and turf to dirt. Trainer Leo Azpura is 20% with 2nd time starters – he adds to his total today. Blondie Jak also drops off a debut against better; but she is stretching out from 5 ½ furlongs to today’s seven panels. Eibar Coa rides. Nofashionsense stopped right after the start of her last, just five days ago. Right back today, and Manoel Cruz stays, indicates that she had nothing taken out of her in that last, and they must think she’s ready to run well to enter back so quickly.
Selections
Ells Applause – Blondie Jak – Nofashionsense
The Bet: $5 to win on Ells Applause
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