Saturday December 4
1st Starter Allowance 6 furlongs
Devilish Lady figures to go off at odds-on in the opener, and she’s hard to go past. Claimed three back for $16K in a nw2L sprint she was moved immediately into STAKES COMPANY and finished third in the Cassidy at more than 20-1. As if that isn’t impressive enough, she exited that race to run in the O’Farrell on Florida Million Day….AND WON at 17-1! OK, I’m convinced…..double the investment on the short-priced favorite! My Mama Gator was within three lengths of “the Lady” three back in spite of being checked according to the trouble line. With a clean trip, and if Devilish Lady doesn’t fire her “A” game, maybe it’s Gator time! Livingtheblues exited the same race as Gator and was only beaten 4 lengths in spite of being “shuffled back.” She won her last by over SEVENTEEN LENGTHS! I don’t care what level of competition, that kind of winning margin should draw a handicapper’s attention!
Selections
Devilish Lady – My Mama Gator – Liviningtheblues
The Bet: $10 to win on Devilish Lady
2nd Claiming 5 ½ furlongs
Freedom Afleet faces the softest competition of his career in this nw2Y group as she’s been racing in allowance-optional claiming company since last June. Easy pickings if she’s got even a semblance of the talent her connections believed she had. Ativa is lightly race (4 starts) and faced winners for the first time in her last, while also trying two-turns for the first time last out. The drop in class and turn-back in distance all work in her favor. Shez So Special made her first start in South Florida two weeks, and it was a winning effort in an identical spot – only thing was, she was winless in 2010, and won a race for non-winners of TWO in 2010! She’s got the best most recent form.
Selections
Freedom Afleet – Ativa – Shez So Special
The Bet; PASS
3rd Maiden Claiming 8 ½ furlongs – TURF
The West Rim is an automatic play down here, especially at Gulfstream and now Tropical…..first time Nick Canani for Frank Calabrese….uh oh! Add to the mix that her speed figures are much the best, she’s dropping in class, and Elvis Trujillo
Selections
The West Rim – Finest silver – Tulip Treasure
The Bet: $10 to win on The West Rim
4th Claiming 8 furlongs
To Heir Is Human is either one of the most unlucky horses I’ve ever handicapped, or is just not a very good horse. Trained by Eddie Plesa and ridden today by Paco Lopez I’ll settle for unlucky today. In his last eight races he’s got what appears to be six legitimate excuses, all different, and in the other two starts…..he wins! I’ll bet on Lopez to keep him out of trouble and on the straight path to the finish line. Baystreet Bully has the rail and early speed. With the short run to the turn it looks to me like he’ll be loose on the lead – at least until they reach the backstretch. If he can set leisurely fractions he could be dangerous. Porto Santo has been working quickly over at Gulfstream and plunges in class for Rick Dutrow. He’ll be a short price, but might be a deserving favorite.
Selections
To Heir Is Human – Baystreet Bully – Porto Santo
The Bet: PASS
5th Maiden Claiming 5 ½ furlongs
Sorrowful Jones is the one experienced runner who appears to be able to pass horses in the stretch, and he should get a hot pace with some faint-hearted front-runners to target. Unless one of the first timers can run a professional race like that, Joes looks best of all. Snugglin Jo Jo showed finishing ability in his debut, at this level, but “didn’t fire” in his last. Hard to trust. Z Breeze has been on a clear lead in all of his starts, and always fails to hold on….but his last was his best ever as he nearly held on to be beaten a length.
Selections
Sorrowful Jones – Snugglin Jo Jo – Z Breeze
The Bet: $5 to win on Sorrowful Jones
6th AOC 7 ½ furlongs – TURF
Go Go Pink gets a full field of front-runners which should enable him to have the best finishing punch while not being too far off the pace. Goes for the same connections – Lopez/Plesa – as my top selection in the 5th! Gentle Tripp has been on the grass twice, and has won BOTH times! He wired one field and stalked the pace in the other. With any other post I’d probably lean towards him, but I think he’ll have to be hard iused to get position with the rail slot. Sedona Belle goes for the strong Calabrese/Canani connections. Off the layoff he’s got a shot to win this event, but typically these human connections score with other angles….first off the claim, etc.
Selections
Go Go Pink – Gentle Tripp – Sedona Belle
The Bet: $5 to win on Go Go Pink
7th Claiming nw2L 1 mile / 70 yards
French Flame gets a very timid vote in this battle of non-winners of two lifetime populated by largely proven losers in bad form. French Flame at least is dropping in class after showing brief speed. The distance may pose an issue, but someone has to finish first. Cashmere Kitten has finished strongly in two straight races to be runner-up. Perhaps with faint-hearted pace setters Kitten may run by all of them late. Shot Gun Donna is lightly raced, more so than any of her rivals. If able to reproduce her winning effort from two back she would rate a contending shot.
Selections
French Flame – Cashmere Kitten – Shot Gun Donna
The Bet: PASS
8th Claiming nw3L 8 furlongs
Back For Dinner drops in for the lowest tag of his career while going 2nd off the shelf today. If he’s able to find his winter 2009 form he can be dangerous on the drop in class. She’s a Babe is also a class dropper, and finishes well. I’ll give the edge to Dinner because of the running style difference. Poupon stretches out off a series of sprints, and with the rail he may try to steal it – which wouldn’t be that difficult if she can quickly find the front end.
Selections
Back For Dinner – She’s A Bade – Poupon
The Bet: $5 to win on Back For Dinner
9th Grade 3 My Charmer H’Cap 9 furlongs – TURF
Miss World is the upset selection in the first graded event of the Tropical meeting. She is the lone Grade 1 winner, and though that happened a year ago, she has run with and beaten quality runners. She goes second off the shelf today for Christophe Clemente and is a juicy 10/1 on the morning line. Askbut I Wonttell comes off an upset win in the Grade 3 Cardinal Handicap at Churchill Downs at this distance. If that didn’t take too much out of her she could be dangerous as an in-form runner. Paracaidas is first-time Marty Wolfson, which is always dangerous. Even more so today as Wolfson’s other entry, Cherokee Queen is a legitimate contender, and how many times is there an uncoupled entry when the longer price wins?
Selections
Miss World – Askbu I Wonttell – Paracaidas
The Bet: $10 to win on Miss World
10th Starter Allowance 8 ½ furlongs
Nicholas Vision has beaten nearly every runner in here, with the exception of Pressure. However, that day Nicholas Vision – who is a late runner – was up against the pace flow of the race. Today there is plenty of speed to set up his late run, and he looks like the most likely winner in spite of his 4/1 morning line. Pressure rates a chance as the only one in here who’s been able to defeat Nicholas. He’ll need to sit just off the pace, which he has done, to win today. Cove Star has been right there with these runners, but has an added advantage today in that he is first off the claim for a 23% barn with those types.
Selections
Nicholas Vision – Pressure – Cove Star
The Bet: $5 to win on Nicholas Vision
11th Grade 3 Tropical Turf H’Cap 9 furlongs – TURF
TODAY’S BEST
Never On Sunday came off an extended break last winter, after shipping from across the Atlantic to just miss in Grade 1 company in the Gulfstream Park Handicap. After disappointing early last spring he was put on the shelf again, and resurfaces for Patrick Biancone today. If able to reproduce his Euro form, or that Gr 1 effort, he looks much the best in here at a fair price. BIG TIME. Rhay’s Attorney would be a serious threat if he weren’t perched on the far outside. If able to work out a good trip, and that is entirely possible with Edgar Prado in town to ride, he would have to be near the top of the contender’s list. Bim Bam is a Calder HFC with a turf record of 5/2-2-0, and those two losses were in his last two starts each by a mere nose! It would be so typical of “race track logic” for him to win today at big odds after having such bad luck at a short price in his last two.
Selections
Never On Sunday – Rhay’s Attorney – Bim Bam
The Bet: $20 to win on Never On Sunday
12th Maiden Claiming 7 furlongs
Mogey plunges in class and stretches out off for his third career start Looks as good as any in here. Sweet Content makes his fourth start today and if you can dismiss his last, when he dropped to this level for the first time and failed to fire, then he would be considered legitimate. Jumpin Jordan has the rail and split the field in his debut while stretching out.
Selections
Mogey – Sweet Content – Jumpin Jordan
The Bet: PASS
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