Saturday December 18
1st Claiming nw3L 6 ½ furlongs
Da Lady Viki drops out of $16K open company after showing speed for 6 furlongs in a two-turn route to this restricted sprint. If able to stay close to sprint-like pace fractions she should have enough punch to finish strongly and take down this group. Sweet Enticement is the morning line favorite and will be no surprise if she wins; especially with her perfect 2-for-2 record at the distance. However I will go against her because of two bothersome angles…..(1) she is a deep closer, making her vulnerable to pace and traffic issues, but (2) more importantly her rider today is currently 0-for-9 at the meet and a lack-luster 1-for-35 in 2010. Not willing to take a short price under those circumstances. Skiptoit also drops out of better company with a chance to win. Based on her 2009 form, when she was unbeaten in two starts, she would be a serious threat – especially with her speed and the rail. But her two starts this fall have been very poor; maybe she wakes up today in this restricted spot?
Selections
Da Lady Viki – Sweet Enticement – Skiptoit
The Bet: PASS
2nd Maiden Claiming 8 furlongs – TURF
Miss Kitten has two very strong angles that point her out in a big way – IF this race stays on the grass (with showers in the forecast). First, she is a two-year-old first time starter for Wesley Ward, who is dynamite with his two-year-old first timers. It is encouraging as well that Elvis Trujillo is on board as these two team up together frequently with 2 yo runners – overall Trujillo is a 31% winner for Ward. And second, Miss Kitten is a daughter of Kitten’s Joy who has produced multiple turf winners this season. It’s no surprise that her Tomlinson’s are among the best in the field! Lemonesque is another debut runner with license to run well. Also well bred, and with leading rider Manny Cruz on board for top trainer Bill White, she must be considered. However White’s statistics with 1st time turf runners (10%) and debuting maiden claimers (5%) make be believe she’ll be better with one under her belt. Mark her for later, maybe at Gulfstream at a nice price! Uno’s Wild Angel not only has racing experience, but two-turn turf experience. In her turf debut she ran away from the field to a 7 length lead through the opening half before fading to be a well-beaten fourth. With experience perhaps she can ration her speed better today. She’s certainly the target to aim for in her.
Selections
Miss Kitten – Lemonesque – Uno’s Wild Angel
The Bet: $10 to win on Miss Kitten
3rd Starter Allowance 8 furlongs
Quiet Emarati was claimed out of his last, just SIX DAYS ago! This is not usually an angle I am fond of, but in this case I am intrigued because the owner that trainer Jose Pinchin claimed this runner for was……HIMSELF! Must have seen something he really liked to not only pay his own money, but run him right back. Also it is interesting that Emarati was well played (and was Mike Welsch’s BEST) in that last effort. Gato Paso has been running against good company, and in sprints. His running style leads me to believe he will either be up on or near the leaders. He could surprise with the stretch out today. Atlantic Paws drew my attention first time through the field….been racing competitively against far better than the rest and leading rider Manny Cruz up. But trainer Erik Posada is really struggling with a record of 1 for 46 at the meet…..ouch!
Selections
Quiet Emarati – Gato Paso – Atlantic Paws
The Bet: PASS
4th Claiming nw3L 8 ½ furlongs – TURF
Much Fanfare drops from facing open company runners on the much stronger NYRA circuit to run in this restricted claiming event in South Florida . Lightly raced and one of only two runners in here with multiple wins on the grass, she appears to be a clear favorite to take down this group. SOLID under Eibar Coa who wins 28% for the barn at a positive ROI of $2.48 per $2 invested. Blackjack Beauty also drops out of open claimers BACK into restricted company, as she’s been defeated, albeit narrowly, for a 2/3L tag. She gets a 10 pound bug boy on board today, and one would have to assume she’ll gun to the front and try to take them wire to wire. Dangerous on the lead if left alone to set an easy pace. Morningsideheights is the other filly who’s got multiple turf wins (2). Though her wins also came in New York
Selections
Much Fanfare – Blackjack Beauty – Morningsideheights
The Bet: $10 to win on Much Fanfare (Turf only!)
5th Maiden Claiming 7 furlongs
Blondie Jak makes her third start, dropping yet again, after showing speed vs. better; the last at today’s 7 panels. Should have a better foundation and a good chance to clear off and take them on a merry chase. Vintage Candy broke behind the field in her last – at this distance – yet rallied strongly to grab 2nd in a two-way photo for the place. If able to break with the field, and there is a good pace set up, she could be the one. Louisiana Warrior was claimed two back off a near miss at this level at a shorter distance. She was moved up to the $16K level for her first start under her new shedrow, but was well beaten. Back down today and stretching out may due the trick.
Selections
Blondie Jak – Vintage Candy – Louisiana
The Bet: PASS
6th Claiming nw2L 6 furlongs
Double Holiday’s career record (13/1-4-1) does not inspire confidence, however on closer examination he seems to have “seen the light” since getting a new trainer. In his last three he was a narrowly beaten 2nd, a winner, and in his last – his first try against winners (at this level) – he was again a very narrowly beaten second while rallying at a half a furlong shorter. With a rail-skimming ride today from the one hole he may make the next step forward. Clever Chris drops after showing speed to the stretch against better in his last. That was nearly a year ago! If able to clear, he could be a factor to the wire. Knuckles Cooper should get a good trip is rating as he did three back to break his maiden. He drops in class today, and with a stalk and pounce strategy he would be a win candidate.
Selections
Double Holiday – Clever Chris – Knuckles Cooper
The Bet: PASS
7th Starter Allowance 6 furlongs
Poetic Princess is the pick here to reverse her fortunes against nemesis Cara’s Song. Poetic Princess is quick enough to take the field gate to wire, but would probably be more effective is settling just off the lead. She’s been off since late October when claimed. She fired a bullet, best of 32, five days ago signaling she is ready today. Cara’s Song will most certainly benefit if someone softens up the top selection, and has run her down before. I’m willing to go against her in this spot because she’s had four races over the last ten weeks, and since claimed has been running against softer than she sees today. Perhaps she comes up JUST short of catching the top one, who will most certainly be a better price than Cara’s Song who is listed as the favorite. Birdseed is the new shooter on the scene. She comes in from Maryland and the fact that she’s not seen this group may be enough of an edge; but her career mark against similar of 18/2-4-2 at the distance does not lend itself to making an investment on her behalf.
Selections
Poetic Princess – Cara’s Song – Birdseed
The Bet: $5 to win on Poetic Princess
8th Claiming 6 ½ furlongs
Two Saints has many of the characteristics of a winner at this level …. lightly raced, in good form, and with a “change” to indicate a good performance. In Saints’ specific case he not only is coming off a dominant win, but back-to-back dominant wins AND goes first off the claim for an outfit which wins with 22% of those. As if that isn’t enough, top rider Manoel Cruz rides today, and he’s a 36% winner (from 73 starts!) for the Chris Gatis barn. SOLID! Charmed could also fit the profile as he too is lightly raced and his last was his first start since September. Should improve today, and on his “A” game he could be a threat to the top one. Cancerbero is in fine form, and is turning back off a win at one mile. The turnback today should mean he’ll be rolling late through the lane.
Selections
Two Saints – Charmed – Cancerbero
The Bet: $10 to win on Two Saints
9th Claiming nw2L 8 ½ furlongs – TURF
Mistressia has never seen a 2L tag, and has actually crossed the wire first, on the turf – something none of her rivals can claim. Both of those (one from which she was dq’d) came when Paco Lopez was riding for Eddie Plesa. Lopez is back in the saddle today. She’s been working steadily since her last start in October – and the next to last work was the signature Plesa move – a one mile work. Looks like “the one” in here. Sexy Lady is lightly raced and her lone start for a 2L condition came in $50K company. With top national rider Rajiv Maragh on board she should be rolling late. Proper Heiress should be winging it on the front end, in spite of the far outside post. She was entered and ran in a turf sprint when returning from a break in her last. That outing should have sharpened her speed, and she should be targeted for the front end by Elvis Trujillo today….dangerous if let to run loose on the lead.
Selections
Mistressia – Sexy Lady – Proper Heiress
The Bet: $5 to win on Mistressia
10th Allowance 6 furlongs
See The Forest has won two in a row, in spite of being claimed in his next-to-last, and now ships for her first start in South Florida from Philadelphia Brampton Brampton Turfway Park
Selections
See The Forest – Brampton
The Bet: PASS
11th Grade 2 William L. McKnight Invitational 12 furlongs – TURF
The analysis and the selections in this race start and stop with what you make of Presious Passion. If you can forgive his last three, yes – last three – efforts, and you can forsee a return to form, then the price you’ll get today will be an overlay of very generous proportions for a Grade 1 winner, and two-time winner of this very race. However, if you look at those last three efforts and see a horse that has burnt out and no longer has “it” then he is a very vulnerable horse who is taking way too much money at the windows. For me, the first thing I’ll need to consider before committing my money is the weather. Any kind of moisture in the track – anything other than firm going – and Presious Passion is a play-against. In fact, if it’s anything but firm I’d be surprised if his connections would allow him to run at all if it is anything but a firm surface. As I write this today I also have not read any comments from his connections. I would certainly like to read something encouraging to give me a “lean” as he is the best horse – if on his “A” game – in the field. The one thing I do not want to read is “….we are hoping for….” – that tells me they don’t know and that’s not good enough for me. But, by entering here I will take that – at face value – that they believe he is the “old boy” that we know and love. With the inside post and lack of pace he will be clear down the backstretch. How clear, and does he have that kick on the turn? I hope so, because it would be yet another remarkable chapter in our adventures together. Telling is another horse that you have to have a “leap of faith” with. He has been in four straight Grade 1 races (winning one) and 7 of his last nine have been in Grade 1 company (winning 2). However, his lone two wins in two years were the Grade 1 Sword Dancer at Saratoga
Selections
Presious Passion – Telling – Prince Will I Am
The Bet: $20 to win on Presious Passion
12th Maiden Claiming 7 furlongs
Engine Number Nine was off slowly in his debut, yet recovered to be 4th at this level going shorter. A clean break and the longer distance should be enough to get the job done. Growl was 2nd to a runaway winner in his last, his first on the main. Don’t like it was a 3-way photo and he was caught going shorter. Gibson’s Attitude will set sail at a nice price from the outside – just a question of pressure and if he gets brave today.
Selections
Engine Number Nine _ Growl – Gibson’s Attitude
The Bet: PASS
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