Tropical Final Recap

 

Dec 26 Results - A GREAT Day to conclude H'capping Challenge

Today's BEST Bet:

 

December 26 Selections

Sunday December 26

12:25    1^st         Maiden Claiming         8 ½ furlongs                                                                                                    

Pistol Peg is lightly raced and makes her debut in the cellar for the first time today.  What’s key to her chances today, in addition to the fact that she has NOT been beaten multiple times at this level, is that in her last she was beaten over 17 lengths, but she was STILL SECOND BEST!  In fact she was clear of the show horse by 3 open lengths and it was another 3+ lengths to the other 7 runners.  She moves forward today off that drop to get her picture taken for the initial time.  Call Our Girl shares many of the same characteristics with the top choice – lightly raced, second best in her last, dropping to the bottom for the first time.  In fact, she probably will be the favorite with top rider Manny Cruz on board, and with the winner of her last coming right back to score.  But I’m turned off by the comment, “…lugged in badly in the stretch..” off her last.  I’ll let her beat me at a short price.  Magicpage scares me – not because of her record, which is a dismal 21/0-2-1, but because she appears to be the only runner who has ever been on the front end.  With a 10 pound bug rider today you can be sure she’ll be gunning to the front.  Here’s hoping that she backs up for the 22^nd time today!

Selections

Pistol Peg – Call Our Girl – Magicpage

The Bet:  PASS

12:49       2^nd     Claiming nw2L                        5 ½ furlongs                                                                                                       

Bling’s Rising Star made her first start in 2L company, for a higher tag, in her last.  Right away she was eliminated as she was “…steadied at the break….” and was last.  She failed to show any competitive speed, and was laid off.  She returns today on the drop having been working steadily at Gulfstream.  Her work two back was fairly quick, indicating she may be ready to fire today with Elvis Trujillo on board.  The logical favorite is Odalys Halo who exhibits the characteristics of the kind of runner I like to play in these spots.  She’s never been in for a tag, much less for 2L tag;  but today is only her third start, and though she broke her maiden at first asking it was a surprise as she was 10/1 that day, then an even bigger price in her last, and showed absolutely nothing.  To drop to the bottom, 2L in just the third start seems to say to me that they don’t have a lot of faith.  Putitbacklisa debuted with a poor effort, but in her last two she ran very well, up near the pace.  Another step forward in her first try against winners would give her a chance.

Selections

Bling’s Rising Star – Odalys Halo – Putitbacklisa

The Bet:  PASS

1:14         3^rd     Maiden Claiming         7 furlongs                                                                                                        

Oriental Queen may offer some value in spite of the fact that she owns several key angles that generally point out winners.  The first is one of the most powerful angles in handicapping – Early Speed in a Maiden Special with a drop today in for a tag.  This is the most powerful class move in racing, and the combination of early speed/class drop is always an indicator of an impending good effort.  AND….the briefer the early speed, the better the price!  In her debut she dueled for a quarter before tossing in the towel completely.  The second big time angle is she exits what is now a SUPER KEY race.  The winner of that maiden special was Evil Queen, who came back on Thursday’s card off of the maiden win to beat first level allowance in her first start against winners!  Finally, top jockey Manny Cruz elects to stay in spite of being on board when Oriental Queen was beaten by 25 lengths in her debut. 15/1 on the morning line, I’ll take it!  Dreaming of Rose dropped from MSW in Chicago to start for this tag level in her Calder debut for the dynamite team of Frank Calabrese and Nick Canani.  Off at 4/5 that day she was ELEVEN clear of the field…..but, she was also 11 back of the winner that day!  One more try.  Laurel’s Landing debuts for David Fawkes, a 16% angle, and has Jeffrey Sanchez on board.  Sanchez scores at a very healthy 24% with a $2.63 ROI for Fawkes.  With a string of steady works, Laurel may be ready to score in her debut.

Selections

Oriental Queen – Dreaming of Rose – Laurel’s Landing

The Bet:  $5 to win on Oriental Queen

1:40         4^th     Claiming          8 furlongs – TURF                                                                                                       

Rain is in the forecast for Sunday as a cold front moves through the area, so let’s keep an eye out for both turf and dirt win candidates…… Prime Precision has been entered in 12 straight turf races, but has actually been on the grass four times.  Though he’s run well on the off going, he’s run better on the grass.  His Beyers:  77 – 78 – 80 – 62.  But the DRF speed ratings for those four races:  97 – 97 – 98 – 96.  Me thinks it’s a bad speed rating.  And if that’s the case, Prime Precision may be best today at a price!  Road Track’s Dream is fresh off a break for Frank Calabrese/Nick Canani.  His last three races were a photo loss, photo loss, and a win – all at odds on.  Go Go Pink looks to have the best early lick and will probably try to take these gate to wire.  Dangerous if loose.

Selections

Prime Precision – Road Track’s Dream – Go Go Pink

The Bet:  $5 to win on Prime Precision (turf or dirt)

2:05         5^th     Claiming          7 furlongs                                                                                                                    

Truthbetold goes first off the claim for a trainer that wins with 24% of these, and when jockey Jose Alvarez is aboard – like today – they win a big 34% of the time with an excellent ROI of $2.72.  Huff’n Hughes is also first off the claim for a barn that does even better – 26% - off the claim.  But, not too keen on the short price and the turnback move today – also though Paco Lopez is a very good rider, his 9% winning avg. here is not inspiring.  Yes It’s Dan has had two big wins in his last three starts.  Yet another move forward today and he’s a contender.

Selections

Truthbetold – Huff’n Hughes – Yes It’s Dan

The Bet:  PASS

2:31         6^th     Maiden Special           5 ½ furlongs                                                                                                    

Shezsocool was the 9/5 favorite in her debut, and was a non-threatening fourth, though she did dispute the pace for a half.  Comes off a break and ships from Churchill to South Florida – a hidden class drop.  Hundred Acre debuts today and has been working strongly.  With top rider Manny Cruz on board he’s a longshot contender.  Lil Miss G was a very good second in his debut – but for a tag.  Stepped up to MSW company and was a good third.  Give her a chance also.

Selections

Sezsocool – Hundred Acre – Lil Miss G

The Bet:  $5 to win on Shezsocool

3:01         7^th     Claiming nw2L                        8 ½ furlongs – TURF                                                                                           

Lucky Irish Day has run two of the best two-turn turf races in the field, earning Beyers of 77 and 76, the former coming off a 5 furlong turf sprint……Lucky’s last race à a five furlong turf sprint!  Look out!  My Pocket Ace may be the speed of the race, especially if it comes off the turf and there are scratches.  Paco Lopez will try to ration out his speed and take them gate to wire.  Dinahmite Sal never seen a tag, much less a 2L tag.  Drops in here to a new low off a series of SEVEN straight turf Beyers that would win or at least be very competitive.

Selections

Lucky Irish Day – My Pocket Ace – Dinahmite Sal

The Bet:  $10 to win on Lucky Irish Day (turf only)

3:31         8^th     Allowance       6 furlongs                                                                                                                    

This race is simply LOADED with speed, so it sets up wonderfully for a stalker/finisher….such is Royal Tricon.  He has run four consecutive improving Beyers, topped off with a rallying 2^nd in his last earning a lifetime Beyer top.  He looks set up perfectly today to make yet another step forward.  D’Hidalgo is hot as a fire cracker, having romped in two straight.  He stretches out today and comes back on just seven days rest with a handful of pace rivals.  Dream of Atlantis has the far outside post, and if this helps him to rate off the speed he would have a good chance.

Selections

Royal Tricon – D’Hidalgo – Dream of Atlantis

The Bet:  $10 to win on Royal Tricon

4:00         9^th     AOC                 5 ½ furlongs                                                                                                                

With seven of the eight entered today typically running on the lead, and several of those consistently putting up sub-:22 first quarters, this race set-up begs for a stalker/finisher.  Such a horse may be a bit of a price – Bidham.  What may mislead many handicappers today is that Bidham appears to be poorly placed as he is coming out of a mile race, which was preceded by a 7 furlong race.  Coping with the hot pace of a 5 ½ furlong race may seem too much here;  but to the astute handicapper, I point out to you he is a true horse-for-the-distance with a record of 7/3-1-0, in fact the combined record at the distance of the rest of the field is 12/3-4-3, so one-half the wins at the distance belong to Bidham.  Further, if one were to examine his works since that mile effort you’d note a bullet, best of 32 and a 5^th best of 51 works in his latest.  Obviously his speed has been sharpened.  I look for him to take back just off the dueling front-runners, save ground, move out on the turn and draw clear through the final furlong – SOLID at a nice price.  Interestingly, the entire rest of the wins at the distance belong to one horse, Prince Joshua.  And in a money-added allowance like this, one key is to look for a horse with stakes experience – such a horse would be Prince Joshua.  However, I’m discouraged by his ELEVEN race losing streak since winning the Select Stakes at Monmouth over 16 months ago, and the fact that the rider (top jockey Manny Cruz) wins a lowly 8% for this barn.  Also, his best Beyers from ’09 are nearly 10 to 15 points higher than what he’s run lately.  Gaucho, how good is he?  He has won three consecutive races, and has won fresh.  He is lightly raced, and with the exception of his debut he has NEVER been headed at the quarter call.  As often happens, if the other riders see all the pace and they all back off, Gaucho would be the lone speed, and very dangerous.

Selections

Bidham – Prince Joshua – Gaucho

The Bet:  $10 to win on Bidham

4:30         10^th    Maiden Claiming         8 furlongs – TURF                                                                                           

Slick Vic is bred all over for the off-going, and should the love the sloppy track – he’s the inside speed, and if there are scratches and/or the field is left with runners wanting grass he can spring the upset on the front end under apprentice Jonathan Delgado.  At 8/1 on the morning line, let’s end this post-holiday card with a bang!  Act of Defiance has only been out twice, and that was a debut win and an early speed-quit vs. allowance types. He fits the profile for a 2L event, but I’ll go against because (a) it’s his first route, (b) seems a bit quick to drop to 2L off of one try against winners, (c) he’s not as well bred for off-going, and (d) he’s coming back in less than 2 weeks.  Raging Sea appears to be a legitimate longshot danger at 10/1.  Ridden by top jockey J R Velasquez, he showed stalking speed from post ten in his first route, on the turf.  If he stays in the field  - off the grass – and if able to relax, he could be a danger.  Should it stay on the turf, he would be my upset play.

Selections

Slick Vic – Act of Defiance – Raging Sea

The Bet:  $10 to win on Slick Vic (off the turf)

$10 to win on Raging Sea (on the turf)

5:00         5^th     California Breeders’ Champion Stakes            7 furlongs                                                                    

(3) Gab Power stalked the sensational Comma to the Top to the head of the lane in the Grade 3 Generous Stakes, going a mile on the turf in his last.  Actually made up a length on the leader (while dropping to 4^th) through the stretch.  The turn back to 7 furlongs, and the switch back to the main should set him up nicely today.

The Bet:  $10 to win on (#3) Gab Power

5:30         6^th     Grade 1 La Brea Stakes                                   7 furlongs                                                                    

(3) Switch was my selection in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint, and she ran a bang-up second that day in spite of a little trouble after shipping across the country….shows her ability to handle real dirt.  Thinking that the Test winner, Champagne d’Oro will get company on the front end and it should set up nicely for the stalking trip I see Switch getting in here today.  Looks solid to me.

The Bet:  $15 to win on (#3) Switch

6:00         7^th     Grade 2 Sir Beaufort Stakes                8 furlongs – TURF                                                                   

TODAY’S BEST:  (5) SIDNEY’S CANDY was ultra impressive in the Grade 2 La Jolla this summer, and would have romped in the Grade 1 Shoemaker Mile had there not been “issues” regarding an imminent sale.  I believe that skipping this race not only cost him a Grade 1 but also compromised his chances in the Breeders’ Cup Mile.  No telling if he could have held off the super-mare Goldikova, but in spite of the extended break, shipping across the country, and facing the best milers in the world he set the pace to mid-stretch.  Beaten a mere 3 lengths of some of the best horses on grass, he should find this Grade 2 group much softer.  The only issue is a less-than-firm course with all the recent rain.  Shouldn’t matter – he’s much the best today.

The Bet:  $30 to win on Sidney’s Candy

6:30         8^th     Grade 1 Malibu Stakes                                    7 furlongs                                                                                   

(9) Twirling Candy was unbeaten through his first four and being seriously considered for the Breeders’ Cup Classic.  High praise indeed for such a lightly raced 3-year-old.  Disappointed under a new rider in the Goodwood vs. older for the first time, and since his connections have backed off.  Returns to face straight 3-year-olds in a one turn race.  Should stalk the leaders and reassert himself as a top runner, and one to fear in the handicap division – perhaps even the 2011 Breeders’ Cup!  (I’ll be there!)

The Bet:  $15 to win on (#9) Twirling Candy

Dec 23

Thursday December 23

12:25    1^st         Maiden Claiming         8 ½ furlongs                                                                                                    

It’s sad when the top rated horse has a record of 16/3-3-0.  Five Star DJ has never raced at this low of a tag, however that is a big misleading since his races are all on the grass (or were intended to be on the grass).  The cheapest tag available on turf is the lowest DJ has raced at.  But his Beyers indicate he should be competitive.  Yo Me Gusta has shot to the lead in two straight route races.  Two back, at this level he stopped badly.  But in his last he may have carried his speed much farther, but he was checked on the first turn; yet he still held second.  Maybe….. Killian’s Advice is making his third start.  He hasn’t shown anything in either start, but maybe third time is a charm and he may have some potential.

Selections

Five Star DJ – Yo Me Gusta – Killian’s Advice

The Bet:  PASS

12:51       2^nd     Claiming          6 furlongs                                                                                                                    

Gato Paso turns back from a mile effort a mere five days ago.  He’s been running in starter allowance company in his last four starts;  Five back he ran at this $5K level and won going away.  If he’s able to overcome the short runaround and the turn back he could be a handful.  Doctor Garrett is targeting the lead – he’s had starting gate issues, but when breaking sharply he is very quick.  Though he has a tendency to tire late, he has gotten brave at this level before.  Great Blade is much more lightly raced that most in here, and has been at a level or two above this most of the time.  With two wins at the distance and four here at Calder he does know his way to the winner’s circle.

Selections

Gato Paso – Doctor Garrett – Great Blad

The Bet:  $5 to win on Gato Paso

1:18         3^rd     Claiming nw2L                        6 ½ furlongs                                                                                                       

Grand Black Jak is one for seventeen, and has been beaten at the 2L level – like ALL of his competitors in here – BUT he has one angle going for him ….. he has been somewhat competitive AND he was facing his competition on the tougher NYRA circuit.  The thinking is he’ll find the 2L rivals here in South Florida a bit softer.  Cassidys Jet just broke his maiden, but he’s only been out seven times, and has yet to lose to 2L rivals.  Brown Feather has nearly paired his last two Beyers.  He was a maiden winner at Mountaineer two back, drawing off at 5 furlongs;  in his last he looked clear and on his way to a second straight before just failing to last at 7 furlongs.  Today he splits the difference at 6 furlongs.  Maybe…..

Selections

Grand Black Jak – Cassidys Jet – Brown Feather

The Bet:  PASS

1:45         4^th     Starter Allowance        1 mile / 70 yards                                                                                             

Usain Again is an inconsistent sort on occasion, but in two of his last three he’s run upper 80 Beyers; three back scoring against this type at a nice 6/1.  If today he feels like running, he can spring the upset again.  Several of the logical contenders have all run against each other, sharing Beyers which I think inflate their abilities.  One such runner for  example is The Braveheart.  He earned a career best 88 Beyer in his last.  Out of that race the third place finisher Atlantic Paws came back this weekend as the 3/2 favorite, and was all out to get third while earning a more realistic Beyer of 67.  Coach Gravy was a runaway winner by a widening 12 lengths.  Off that effort he was claimed, and is dropped in class today.  If able to replicate that effort he would be tough to deny – and that runaway win may have been due to the sloppy conditions.  Similar track conditions today would make him a serious threat today!

Selections

Usain Again – The Braveheart – Coach Gravy

The Bet:  $5 to win on Usain Again

IF the track is sloppy - $10 to win on Coach Gravy

2:13         5^th     Starter Allowance        5 ½ furlong                                                                                                     

Lesson Learned just missed in first trip over the Calder surface.  Should be right there again today – looks hard to deny at this shorter distance.  I’m A Playboy the speed of the speed, and quality speed at that.  Dangerous at the short distance with the inside post.  Can’t let him loose, even though he usually backs up.  Hard to back Motin, even though he’s as honest as they come….on the board 10 of 12 starts.  But ONE lone win of those 10…..ouch.

Selections

Lesson Learned – I’m A Playboy – Motin

The Bet:  $5 to win on Lesson Learned

2:40         6^th     Maiden Claiming         7 furlongs                                                                                                        

Sheriff Bullock just the tip of the iceberg as we head to the peak of the winter season – Eddie Kenally trained runner gets top national rider Julian Leparoux in the irons today; drops from Maiden Specials at Churchill.  May go overlooked by many who will focus on more the local horses with the numbers – but they all have issues.  Wildcat Formation the speed of the speed and dangerous if left to set a leisurely pace; hard to imagine he could return in five days for a new barn and be able to set sprint-like fractions from gate to wire however.  Missing Edward also first off the claim, and from potent out-of-town connections might be good enough on the drop today.

Selections

Sheriff Bullock – Wildcat Formation – Missing Edward

The Bet:  $10 to win on Sheriff Bullock

3:07         7^th     Starter Allowance        8 ½ furlongs – TURF                                                                                        

Kelly’s Pic is the upset selection today.  She is remarkably consistent, being in the exacta 9 of 12 starts in 2010, and has been racing in tougher starter allowance company in New York and New Jersey.  She enters today’s race on a multi-race improving pattern, having earned Beyers of 72-76-79-83 in her last four.  With the ability to set or track the pace, she should get the jump on the deep closers who will attract bettors’ attention on their class.  Dancing Rage is the class of the field, and though challenged by her deep closing style, she has seen MUCH better and should get a favorable pace set-up today.  Consistently she has run in stakes company, and her last win was in an AOC for non-winners of two – today she is in a starter allowance for $16K starters.  Solid if she gets the trip.  Cumana has met the top one three times recently, losing two and getting the head bob in a photo in the other.  What’s interesting is that today Paco Lopez rides and two of Cumana’s best efforts have been with Lopez on board….hmmm. 

Selections

Kelly’s Pic – Dancing Rage – Cumana

The Bet:  $10 to win on Kelly’s Pic (turf only)

3:34         8^th     AOC                 8 furlongs                                                                                                                    

Cugatcha will be a price in the finale before the brief holiday break as she breaks from the outside post and is a confirmed front-runner.  In fact, she will race off to an open lengths lead down the backstretch, and could run away from the field if she gets brave.  Gets Luis Saez to ration her speed – bombs away!  Cuban Carmen is 10/1 and even farther outside; but she loves the Calder strip (21/6-4-4) and this one-mile distance (10/2-3-3).  A deep closer, she could benefit from the hot pace set by Cugatcha.  Liz Hunter another Kenally/Leparoux runner.  Bred to get the distance she ships from Kentucky and stretches out from two sprints.

Selections

Cugatcha – Cuban Carmen – Liz Hunter

The Bet:  PASS

December 22 Selections

HAPPY HOLIDAYS!

Wednesday December 22

12:25    1^st         Claiming          5 ½ furlongs                                                                                                                

Proud Trippi is very lightly raced; and though she only has a single win, she drops to an all-time new low today.  Needs to be patiently handled today.  Joan’s Royal Dawn is a 12x winner in her career, five of which last season.  Second off the shelf today may do the trick.  Tiger at Nite is a deep closer, so she’ll need help up front to show her best today.

Selections

Proud Trippi – Joan’s Royal Dawn – Tiger at Nite

The Bet:  PASS

12:50       2^nd     Maiden Claiming         7 furlongs                                                                                                        

Aim and Fire takes the most dramatic drop in racing going from MSW to a claiming affair today.  Trainer David Fawkes scores 18% with 2^nd time starters, and 27% when jockey Luis Saez is on board.  Better yet, Aim & Fire ran fourth of nine in his debut last out, from which the second place runner came to score as MUCH the best.  BIG TIME today!  As de Copas debuts today for a trainer that has a solid $2.26 ROI with his firsters.  On top of that, he shows a quick work in preparation of today, and could be the upset selection. 

Rosemont Drive

ran for a $75K tag in New York before moving here for today’s start.  On the circuit move alone he qualifies.

Selections

Aim and Fire – As de Copas –

Rosemont Drive

The Bet:  $10 to win on Aim and Fire

1:15         3^rd     Maiden Claiming         8 ½ furlongs – TURF                                                                                        

Sunday, race track announcer Bobby Newman announced that with all the rain on Saturday, handicappers would be wise to handicap assuming we are not on the grass today.  Old Parr debuts today with off-track breeding as well as adequate turf breeding.  If able to break his trainer’s 0-for-13 first time starter jinx he can score at a nice price with top jock Luis Saez on board.  License to Steal was a late running fourth in his debut.  Many will believe that he’s stepping up in class today without realizing that the price structure on the dirt and turf here at Calder are significantly different.  He is facing much the same level today, and will rate a solid chance here.  Alejandro is stuck on the AE list, and should this remain on the grass and should he get in, he would probably justify his 9/5 morning line.

Selections

Old Parr – License to Steal – Alejandro

The Bet:  PASS

1:41         4^th     Claiming          1 mile / 70 yards                                                                                                         

Summerlucky is almost certain to be an inflated price today as the likely favorite appears best on paper, and Summer comes here from running at Mountaineer Park.  However, if a handicapper digs a little deeper he’d find that Summer was very competitive at Churchill Downs, and on that basis he will be competitive here.  Should there be pace pressure, it will be Summerlucky they’ll have to hold off.  Speedy King is the aforementioned likely chalk.  Speedy is indeed that – SPEEDY!  He has wired back-to-back-to-back fields.  And there doesn’t appear to be much pace in here.  A four-peat is not out of the question;  BUT…..I’m not so keen on the fact that today he’s first off the claim, taken AWAY FROM Team Calabrese.  Delaware Manor has a less than inspiring record of 51/6-10-5 would make me hesitant to put him on top.  He does get a favorable pace scenario and maybe, just maybe he can get his 7^th win here today.

Selections

Summerlucky – Speedy King – Delaware Manor

The Bet:  $5 to win on Summerlucky

2:09         5^th     Maiden Claiming         5 ½ furlongs                                                                                                    

Ceylon Star debuts today for trainer Ron Spatz who scores 22% with these, with an amazing $4.83 ROI.  Star has been working steadily for her debut and appears to have found a good spot. 

Bleeker Street

broke behind the field in her debut two and a half weeks ago, but still closed for third.  With a clean break she could be the first to reach the wire.  Full of Love has shown good early speed against better at both Delaware and Laurel.  If able to clear and relax against the softer price level, she could be long gone.

Selections

Ceylong Star –

Bleeker Street

– Full of Love

The Bet:  PASS

2:39         6^th     Starter Allowance        8 ½ furlongs – TURF                                                                                        

Marquet Cat and Maddy’s Crowd renew their rivalry today, and even though Maddy has beaten Marquet in their last three meetings I’m going with the Cat to spring the upset.  Why?  First of all, Marquet Cat has a race over the course and is cutting back in distance.  He also looks to be the speed of the speed in here.  AND today Maddy’s Crowd is coming off an extended break, so perhaps he’s not quite ready to run down a loose on the lead runner.  Lucas Brady is the local runner to fear.  He’s only been on grass three times, and though winless he just missed closing stoutly against FAR superior company than he meets today.  Even more appealing on the main as he owns five wins on the main.

Selections

Marquet Cat – Maddy’s Crowd – Lucas Brady

The Bet:

On the turf:  $10 to win on Marquet Cat

On the main:  $10 to win on Lucas Brady

3:08         7^th     Claiming nw3L                        7 furlongs                                                                                                           

The analysis for the 7^th must start with what you make of Devilish Silver.  She’s listed as the 2/1 morning line favorite and you either will believe she’s a deserving chalk, or a strong play-against.  If you are the former you need look no further than her back-to-back scores in Kentucky at today’s 7 furlong distance where she earned identical Beyers of 76 – which would blow this field away.  If you are the latter you only need look at her last where she was a well-beaten 8^th and earned a 44 Beyer, backing up her previous race, a Beyer of 51 at Hoosier Park.  I believe you can make a legitimate case to toss all the races going back to the paired 76 speed figures.  In her last she was off a layoff, broke 11^th and was late getting into the game.  In the two prior she was up against AOC types, and was going a mile.  In fact, if you look at the three back race she did make the lead at the stretch call before fading.  Finally, I think you can expect a return to her best as she’s first off the claim for Robert Dibona who wins with 26% of those types.  His stats with 2 off the layoff and a break of 30-60 days are also stellar.  For me, it’s Devilish Silver as much the best.  She’s Trippin North is the second choice – for both me and on the morning line.  She too has valid excuses for her last two, and if able to run back to her 3-back race, which was at today’s distance, she would give the top one all she can handle….especially if she’s not on her “A” game for today’s event.  Speed Angel tops my “all-chalk trifecta” ticket.  She faced 2L foes in her last but was a dominant winner.  Not out of the question to see her continue her fine recent form today.

Selections

Devilish Silver – She’s Trippin North – Speed Angel

The Bet:  $15 to win on Devilish Silver

3:37         8^th     Allowance       6 ½ furlongs                                                                                                                

Evil Queen gets the nod to spring the upset in this first level allowance test.  This in spite of being a nose winner in her maiden victory in her last – typically not the kind of horse you want to play back.  However, today she seems to be getting just the right set-up, and perhaps her placement in this particular spot is an indication that her connections have “figured out” what works for her.  Looking over her past performances here’s what you see:  She starts her career with two super sprints, and in the second is a late closing second – stretched to 7 panels she wins and earns a top Beyer;  then she is stretched out to a mile and a mile-70, both in stakes company – way over her head; then two tries routing on the grass – wrong surface and distance.  In her last they turn her back on the main track to a sprint and she repeats the top Beyer.  Today’s distance smacks her right between the eyes of her two best efforts, and it’s nice to see that in spite of the wrong placements she has moved forward on the Beyer scale in five straight.  At 8/1, she’s a value play.  The Marikutana would be my top selection if she wasn’t coming back on such short notice – six days.  Or, if that last race had been a toss-out.  However in her last, a two-turn grass event, she was flying late in an all-out effort.  I think it’s a bit much to ask her to turn back in distance, go turf to dirt, and repeat her best on just six days rest.  But if she does, she would not be a surprise, especially with the apprentice rider up who’s hitting 50% for this barn.  Livingtheblues is one of many speed types in here, but as she has shown twice – including his last – if you leave her alone on the front she will run away and hide.

Selections

Evil Queen – The Marikutana – Livingtheblues

The Bet:  $5 to win on Evil Queen

4:06         9^th     AOC                 5 furlongs – TURF                                                                                                       

Again, the issue here is the surface – are we on the grass or not?  I’ll take the cop-out route to protect my winning percentage by picking a “turf only” on top J  Little Miss Julien has scored on the turf sprinting in the past, and will be a bit of a price here today – but I think she rates a much better chance than her odds will give her.  If you look at her last 3 starts in particular she was breaking from the outside posts, especially the last two.  Go four back and you see she has a set of 3 races where she makes the lead, in spite of the mid-pack post, and runs a strong race.  Today she gets the rail, so I believe there should be no surprise to her strategy – gun to the front – and if she makes the lead, she will be tough to run down, especially if able to clear off.  Always A Party is lightly raced, and if able to run back to her MSW victory two back, where she stalked the pace, she could be very dangerous in here….especially if a pace duel develops.  Depending on the make-up of the field should it come off the grass, I’d give local performer Wicked Woman of NY a chance, especially at a big price.  She’s been able to perform on/near the front both on and off the grass.  Should the right combination of runners scratch out, she could be the upsetter.

Selections

Little Miss Julien – Always A Party – Wicked Woman of NY

The Bet:  PASS

4:35         10^th    Maiden Claiming         5 furlongs                                                                                                        

Seattle Club gets top billing by default in the finale of this special holiday card.  With eight of the eleven lined up today being MULTIPLE losers at this bottom maiden claiming level, you almost have to go with someone who has not yet proven to be a loser.  Seattle Club fits that bill and has strong human connections in Paco Lopez for Eddie Plesa.  Anything better than even money is probably stealing in this spot.  Friday’s Storm is also a first-timer, and has a bullet prep for today.  But I’m reluctant to put her on top with a trainer who’s 2-for-42 on the year.  Ouch!  Black Silver is a mirror image of Friday’s Storm – first time starter, bullet prep, trainer issue…..here you have a trainer who in 2010 has gone 0-for-36….YIKES!

Selections

Seattle Club – Friday’s Storm – Black Silver

The Bet:  $10 to win on Seattle Club