1st Starter Allowance 8 furlongs – TURF
2-Margaret Smile has a turf record of 6/1-3-0, but she is a standout in here. Her last four turf efforts, against better company, have yielded Beyers of 84, 85, 84, and 87. Any one of these figures would dominate the competition. The only thing standing between Margaret and a win today would be Calder management – if they take the race off the turf because it rained a couple of days ago. No one take more races off the grass without just cause than the Calder administration….wow. If the race comes off the turf – assuming the track is “off” (which is a big assumption as management will take it off on a sunny day!) – Margaret has a 4/2-1-0 record on off going. Solid, top to bottom. The only runner who could threaten would be 1-Prime Precision. She has run 80, 78, and 77 in her last three efforts; so her latest would approach the top one. 5-Danny’s Friend is an interesting proposition. She’s normally a mid-70s kind of gal; however her top Beyer, a win here, earned a speed figure of 80 – and that would challenge for a win today on the grass.
Selections
2 – 1 – 5
The Bet: $15 to win on (#2) Margaret Smile
2nd Maiden Claiming 5 furlongs
9-Carlotta Garcia has two angles that her rivals today do not have….first, in spite of this being a maiden race, she’s actually won a race (though subsequently DQ’d); and second, she is dropping in class. Her two lone starts in this country were against Maiden Specials in her last, and Maiden $25K two back. In both efforts she showed good early speed (holding on for 3rd for a tag two back). The most powerful drop in racing is MSW to MdClm, especially when combined with early speed. Carlotta is lightly raced and a likely winner. 11-Smallness has two things working against her – the outside post in such a short sprint, and the fact she has not started since 2008! BUT…..if she can overcome these obstacles – and she does have good human connections – she can win. The odds are fair to good against this group, especially if the top one doesn’t fire. 6-Frappe is a first timer from a small outfit winning 19% overall and 20% with FTS. Interesting that their firsters yield a $4.12 return for every $2 invested. Not many works, but with these……maybe.
Selections
9 – 11 – 6
The Bet: $5 to win on (#9) Carlotta Garcia
3rd Claiming 6 furlongs
6-Rosebud’s Ridge comes out of back-to-back turf sprints which were KEY races against better company that she faces today. She won a stakes race early in her career, and was a strong pace-setter in several other stakes. This year she’s not the same filly, but her pace figures put her far in front on a lonely lead. The question is how brave she will become if left alone. 2-Pharmtrip returned from a two-month break in her last and was a dominant winner against 3L company. If she holds form she could be dangerous from just off the pace. 4-Logan Square gets Manny Cruz back today, and he can pop a big number on occasion. He turns back from a mile, so he should be running well at the end – which could be significant if the top one gets tired late….again.
Selections
6 – 2 – 4
The Bet: PASS
4th Starter Allowance 6 furlongs
Of the seven runners signed on for today’s 4th, FIVE of them are “need-to-lead” types. One is obviously in poor form, and not a contender. How easy is it to figure that the only in-form runner to come off the pace is perfectly set up today? But the morning line on 2-Hans Alphabet Soup is a generous 4/1! He’s run against better than he faces today, and has run competitive speed figures (and won) against better than this. He’s a strong pace play in here. 5-Double Judge would appear to be the speed of the speed – in ten of his twelve races showing he has forged to the lead at the half-mile pole, regardless of pace pressure. The question today is how much starch is taken out of his sails when he finally clears the field? 4-Star Value is the morning line favorite. His two wins showing were both wire-to-wire; however one was sprinting and the other was going a mile. He turns back today off two consecutive mile races, so he COULD come from off the pace; but he hasn’t shown the ability to rate successfully, and I’m not willing to bet a favorite trying a new running style today.
Selections
2 – 5 – 4
The Bet: $10 to win on (#2) Hans Alphabet Soup
5th Claiming nw2L 8 furlongs – TURF
2-Albany Indian is an AUTOMATIC play in here – first off the claim for owner Frank Calabrese and his South Florida trainer of choice, Ron Faucheux. They are winning at a 41% clip for the year, and are deadly first off the claim with a hit rate of 24%. We may get a truly fair price today because 6-Cover Story is an obvious favorite. She comes from the Marty Wolfson shedrow – that in and of itself makes you take notice; she was a good 3rd by less than a length against open allowance company in her South Florida debut after running well at Saratoga. However…..she has been beaten in 2L company previously, AND was unable to beat the competition at Ellis Park twice. Mixed signals! 7-All Drama is lightly raced and trying the grass for the first time. Her Tomlinson figures say she should love the stretch-out and the lawn.
Selections
2 – 6 – 7
The Bet: $10 to win on (#2) Albany
6th Claiming 8 furlongs
OK….ummm, wow. Good luck in this puzzler of runners who’d really prefer to let someonelse win! On paper it boils down to which statistic do you put less (more) faith in on these two runners: 7-Dance For Zack and 6-Kathy’s Ribbons. Kathy has going for her that she’s run Beyers good enough to win this race and that she’s never run beyond 7f, but appears to be bred to do well around two turns. However, her barn is 0 for 20 when taking over a runner for the first time, which is the case with Kathy. Dance For Zack, like Kathy, is dropping from open company to restricted company. He’s won at a mile and has top rider Manoel Cruz. He’s second off the layoff however and his barn is ONE for it’s last 43 starters 2nd off the shelf. YIKES! Hard to pick or eliminate, but we’ll put Zack on top with Cruz riding. 1a-Meadow Ashlee comes off a dominant win against 2Y company, and steps up to 3Y company today; she’s nearly paired her last two figures (57-59) and that might signal further improvement today.
Selections
7 – 6 – 1a
The Bet: PASS
7th Allowance 6 furlongs
4-High Level Jeff needs only to run a figures CLOSE to his monster 89 Beyer in his debut to put away this field. The bullet, best of 21, work just 11 days ago tips us that he’s still sharp. There aren’t any monsters to overcome in here, so I tend to think he’s just a notch better than these right now. 3-Determinato would be the class play in here if you want to look past the Beyers. He ran a solid second in a 2-year-old stake last time out. His Beyer is 20 points less however, and he was 14/1 in that stake race off a well-beaten allowance try. 2-year-olds can improve rapidly, so you never know what might happen! 2-Megalith would be the consistency play…..he ran a good second in his debut (to the horse that won the stakes over Dertminato!) in MSW company, then came back to score in MSW company by four widening lengths. Like “Jeff” he comes off a bullet work and appears sharp for today’s race.
Selections
4 – 3 – 2
The Bet: $5 to win on (#4) High Level Jeff
8th AOC 8 ½ furlongs – TURF
6-Carly’s Real Deal has yet to run a bad race, which is no surprise as she’s out of the strong Marty Wolfson barn. She was a debuting 2nd going two turns on the grass – very difficult to perform well in a debut like that – and then returned to score under “go-to” rider Jermaine Bridgmohan. Carly ran down Don’t Lock Me Out that day, who is on the AE for this race…..but what’s significant is that Don’t Lock Me Out came out of that race and won with a good figure in his next try. Looks too good for these. 8 – March Twelth is a very interesting longshot in here. If I were trainer Jorge Navvaro, I’d tell apprentice rider Juan Delgado to gun to the front – in spite of the wide post – and let him run as far as he can. There looks to be very little other speed in here, and those that like the front can’t match the kind of pace figures March typically puts up. The concern is that March Twelth usually does not hold on. But if he can ration his speed, and take advantage of the weight allowance with the bug rider up…..well, maybe…… 7-Green Lite Special has only been on the turf twice, and WON BOTH TIMES! The last six races his connections have entered him for grass, but they all have come off the turf. He has four seconds and a third before being ambitiously entered in a grass stake – subsequently taken off the turf – in his last. The knock? Both wins were in conditioned company: 2L and 3L claimers. Hmmmm.
Selections
6 – 8 – 7
The Bet: $10 to win on (#6) Carly’s Real Deal
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