12:25 1st Maiden Claiming 5 furlongs
7 – Dolphin Key, one of a VERY few in this field NOT to be destroyed in their last effort, is the lone Maiden Special dropper. Even better he showed good early speed dueling for a half after breaking last. Early-speed, class drop – especially MSW to MdClm – is a deadly move; even more powerful when in a poor field such as this.
12 – Flingfreeforkea is a first-time starter and who’s been working slowly, but steadily for his debut. The bug rider has a $6 ROI when riding for this outfit. The only other FTS is 11 – Phantastic Jet and that gives him a shot – but the barn is 0 for 30 with first-timers….uh oh.
Selections
7 – 12 – 11
The Bet: $5 to win on (#7 ) Dolphin Key
12:54 2nd Maiden Claiming 6 ½ furlongs
5 – Bull Dozer hails from the Chad Stewart barn, the same outfit that sent out our top selection in the first. A different rider for this one, but he also drops from MSW in for the bottom level tag today. Chance on the drop – even better should Stewart’s charge take the opener. 3 – Hugo Light shows the “early-speed/class drop” angle – but not out of MSW company, simply a class notch higher. Still early speed at a higher class is a potent angle. 10 – Hot Under Pressure warrants consideration as a first-time starter in a field of proven losers.
Selections
5 – 3 – 10
The Bet: PASS
1:23 3rd Maiden Special 8 furlongs – TURF
9 – Dinahmite Sal has run four Beyers of 73 or better on the turf and looks strong in here with two seconds and two thirds from his last four outings. He’s in-form and in shape. Should score today. 2 – Apriority has several Beyers in the 80s and has raced against stakes winners in California South Florida debut. The fact he ran so well on the So Cal synthetic would indicate a probable affinity for the grass. However, Apriority’s lone poor effort came when he actually WAS on the turf. Would be no surprise, but not as one of the favorites. The top Tomlinsons for turf and distance in the field go to first-time starter 4 – Carrots. Solid rider in Centeno, but the barn is 5 for 50 this year and not even hitting double digits for first timers. Would have to win on talent alone in spite of his trainer’s work.
Selections
9 – 2 – 4
The Bet: $5 to win on (#9 ) Dinahmite Sal
1:52 4th Claiming 6 furlongs
6 – Clueless Brook ships from Presque Isle and couldn’t have found a softer spot for her Florida Delaware South Florida start. The in-form contender. 11 – Irish Gypsy Rose has only been SOMEWHAT competitive once since June ’09, but that was a win two back. Hard to overlook her local record of 6 wins in 19 starts in spite of her recent form.
Selections
6 – 4 – 11
The Bet: PASS
2:21 5th Maiden Claiming 5 ½ furlongs
6 – Barry K was 3rd at 2-5 in his last against $40K types – drops down to $25K today. The logical choice, but doesn’t look like a positive sign after such a competitive effort to move to the bottom of the selling ranks. 7 – Act of Defiance
2 – Sarah’sgotthecode another first timer from a barn that knows how to have them ready first time out. Near bullet in next to last work may hint at some ability.
Selections
6 – 7 – 2
The Bet: PASS
2:50 6th Claiming nw2L 8 ½ furlongs – TURF
7 – Exclusive Strike is unlikely to be the favorite, and his Beyers appear on the light side compared to the other top contenders…..BUT….today is his first start for the dominant connections of Frank Calabrese-Nick Canani. They combine to win 34% of the time with horses making their first start for them. He exits back-to-back solid tries on the tougher NYRA circuit, and BOTH of those races were KEY races! MANY times these horses run way beyond what their past performances indicate they are capable of. With jockey Daniel Centeno – their new South Florida “go-to” jock on board (he’s won 50% with an ROI of over $3….how is that possible?), he looks like a solid investment that is “outside the box” and might get us a nice payoff. 5 – Cash Advance has run nearly identical speed figures in his two turf routes. They were both in Maiden Special company (a close 3rd and a win). He’s been trying to get back on grass but has struggled with the weather/Calder management. A chance on his best if the top one doesn’t fire. 6 – Father Lucey has shown he can compete on the lawn, and in fact he owns the top grass route Beyer (76) when breaking his maiden in the claiming ranks here back in July.
Selections
7 – 5 – 6
The Bet: $10 to win on (#7 ) Exclusive Strike
3:20 7th Maiden Special 5 ½ Furlongs
Good luck in this one as there are VERY FEW past performance lines to go on and the trainers listed with the first time starters do not have a history of scoring with that kind. With that in mind……9 – Jill’s Dancer has the most experience, and was 2nd at 7-5 in her last start. The previous race she was entered in a stakes race, so SOMEONE thinks she’s got talent, and she does have 3 career runner-up finishes. Works against her however than NONE of those races appear to have produced a quality runner….a next-out winner. 12 – Broadway Marquee has the outside post and has a single start (six weeks ago) where she showed speed to the half mile pole. Maybe with experience she can sit the comfortable trip off the speed. 1 – My Other Girl is a rarity…..a runner out of the Marty Wolfson barn (with go-to rider Jermaine Bridgmohan up) that does NOT have statistics to point them out as a contender. Wolfson’s first timers score at a low 8%. Though this one does show some quick works….so maybe. Has to overcome the tough rail draw though.
Selections
9 – 12 – 1
The Bet: PASS
3:47 8th AOC 6 ½ furlongs
7 – True Will appears to have fallen into the “perfect storm” of pace scenarios today. Of her five inside rivals, four of them run their best when on the lead! True Will is a stalker, first plus! Her five rivals today collectively have a single win at today’s unique 6 ½ furlongs – Ture Will has TWO wins at the distance! Second plus. Her outside post gives her the best possible starting slot to watch the speed unfold inside her! Third plus. It is a short field, so the outside post does not compromise her trip with a wide journey! Fourth plus. Does she need any more advantages? Well, she’s run at this AOC $16K level three previous times – and WON ALL THREE, two of which were her wins at today’s distance. Looks like a strong selection. 6 – Capitalism has shown some ratability and did win on the NYRA circuit previously. However her last start was in Boston at Suffolk Downs for the same connections that last week appeared to have a strong contender shipping down – and that one failed to hit the board. In spite of the bullet works, I’ll pass. 4 – Aroma de Mujer is the only other runner with a win at the distance – at this level. She also has scored at the AOC nw2x level for $25K (today is a nw1x $16K). If she were able to outbreak the other front-runners, and set sail on a clear lead she would be a strong contender.
Selections
7 – 6 – 4
The Bet: $10 to win on (#7 ) True Will
4:15 9th Claiming nw2L 5 ½ furlongs – TURF
7 – Trippindowndahiway closed solidly in turf sprint debut, and has since compiled a solid record. She goes first off the claim today – a 27% winning angle for this barn – and gets top turf rider Eibar Coa. The J-T combo clicks at a solid 22% and the barn has all positive stats on the appropriate moves for today’s heat. 3 – Glass of Water is the primary threat with a solid 3/1-1-1 record sprinting on the green. She set the pace with a quick :21.4 opening quarter in her win but settled for 2nd and 3rd when chasing the speed of insane :20.4 fractions in both her subsequent turf sprints. She stretched out, and was a good 2nd at a mile on the turf last out, so she has the foundation to last if able to clear. 6 – Angel’s Cove has the most turf experience (8 starts on the lawn) and has the advantage of NEVER having raced for a conditioned claiming price. That is something the top two cannot say.
Selections
7 – 3 – 6
The Bet: PASS
4:40 10th AOC 7 furlongs
The feature today is a stakes-quality race and should be a great race………….to watch! Of the six runners, four have tried the tricky distance of 7 furlongs, and not won. One has won, but that was in ’09 and was her maiden win, and the other two have not tried the distance. Three are making their initial starts for new owners/trainers. AND, none of the fillies or mares have shown the desire to run on the front end – so the pace picture is cloudy. So, it looks like a chaos result to me. 1 – Diva d’Oro is first off the claim for Marty Wolfson, and anything he sends out has to taken seriously. With no front-runner in the race, Diva may inherit the lead because she DOES and HAS run on the lead….when going two turns. With no sprint speed to challenge her, she may find that her natural route pace speed is good enough to take the lead in here. If that is the case and she coasts on an early and easy lead, she would be LONG gone. 5 – North Rodeo has raced in solid company on the So Cal circuit; has won at Churchill Downs; and has run most recently at Saratoga
Selections
1 – 5 – 4
The Bet: PASS
5:08 11th Maiden Claiming 8 furlongs
WOW – 11 of these 2-year-old fillies lost their last race by a COMBINED 216 lengths, an average of nearly 20 lengths each! Good luck with this one if the top one doesn’t fire! 10 – Dream Appeal lost a photo sprinting her last, losing by a mere neck. In this company, that speaks volumes if she can handle the distance. 2 – Dylexi ran second in her last, though she was beaten “only” seven lengths. To be fair, she was also five clear of the show horse. Oh, might have something here you think……her previous two starts, she was beaten a combined 36 ¼ lengths – oh…albeit against better. Maybe. Finally, what to do with 4 – Lazy Dynamite? Two back she set the pace going two turns before yielding late to finish a well beaten third. The winner was clear by 7, the place clear by 5, and she was clear of the 4th place finisher by about a length. She returned last out at this class level and was 7/5. Fifth beaten 14 lengths despite having the rail to flaunt her speed – which she never used.
Selections
10 – 2 – 4
The Bet: PASS
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