Sunday October 24 Selections

Let's finish the week off strongly!  Here we go now.....

12:25    1^st         Maiden Claiming          6 ½ furlongs                                                                                                    

6-Run Binky Run has run consistently in four of his six starts, all against much tougher.  His first drop out of the MSW class resulted in a near miss.  The sealed off surface may explain his poor effort next out; but in his last he was a good third against tougher.  The drop to the bottom should do the trick today.  7-Dream Appeal has been runner-up in his last two starts, coincidently his first two at this bottom level.  Another step forward puts him in contention.  8-C C Alexandra has only been on the track twice, and her last was her best yet – a good second at this level.  Her rider wins a very good 40% for the Spatz barn. 

Selections

6 – 7 – 8

The Bet:  Pass

12:50    2^nd        Maiden Claiming          7 furlongs                                                                                                       

2-Delightful Dee has shown good speed twice now, both times going two turns.  Today is the classic turnback after these foundation building efforts.  8-Desoto Springs plunges in class off the layoff for Wesley Ward.  I’d be hesitant to play her to win as Ward typically is much stronger with 2-year-old maidens, and the drop off the layoff says “SALE!”  But, might be good enough in spite of her problems to beat this weak bunch.  10-Gone Cryptic is a first-timer, and that alone qualifies her to be a contender here.

Selections

2 – 8 – 10

The Bet:  Pass

1:14      3^rd        Maiden Claiming          9 furlongs – TURF                                                                                           

3-Butler Cabin makes his first start for the powerful Frank Calabrese stable with 40% trainer Ron Facheaux.  Manny Cruz hops on board, and if this one improves as the Calabrese runners often do when going first out for him, he could be tough to handle based on some of his past races.  4-Clawer has only been out twice, but both turf efforts have been solid – a 4^th and then a 3^rd in his latest.  Should be finishing well through the lane.  8-’s Legacy has run 3 improved speed figures on the turf in his last three starts.  He should get the distance and could threaten. 

Selections

3 – 4 – 8

The Bet:  $5 to win on (#3) Butler Cabin

1:39      4^th        Claiming nw2L             8 furlongs                                                                                                       

4-She’s A Babe is consistently faster, has faced better, and can adapt to many different pace scenarios.  She’s ridden by Manoel Cruz who wins 24% with nearly a $3 ROI for each $2 bet for the Croft stable.  In short, she is a standout in this conditioned claimer.  6-Ativa came off the shelf and wired a maiden sprinting field.  She has not been beaten by conditioned company, something none of the others can say, and she just may have turned the corner.  She appears the speed of the field – the question is how does she last?  3-Cashmere Kitten will be picking up the pieces late.  She’s a good selection for the exotics, but it’s seems unlikely that she’d outfinish everyone here to win the race outright.

Selections

4 – 6 – 3

The Bet:  $10 to win on (#4) She’s A Babe

2:05      5^th        Maiden Special            8 ½ furlongs – TURF                                                                                       

9-Kris and Me had wanted turf since his break in July, but both fall races were rained off.  His last however made it to the inner course and he improved leaps and bounds.  The experience over the lawn moves him up and into the winner’s circle today.  2-Yes This Is It has gone off favored in his last two.  All three of his starts were on the much tougher NYRA circuit.  The move to South Florida may be all the change he needs to get over the hump and have his picture taken.  8-Z Breeze will be forwardly placed coming off two debut 5 furlong sprints.  He’s bred for turf and distance, so he could be very dangerous if left all alone for too long!

Selections

9 – 2 – 8

The Bet:  $5 to win on (#9) Kris and Me

2:31      6^th        Claiming nw2L             8 furlongs                                                                                                       

A wild toss-up with four runners exiting maiden wins – two dominant winners – but all at the bottom of the maiden barrel; and the rest all coming from this same class level.  Any one of five or six of these could win and it wouldn’t be a surprise.  We’ll go with experience in the top slot – 1-Livingtheblues has never gone a distance of ground and his Tomlinsons don’t scream distance….but, he’s first off the claim for an outfit winning at 56% first off the claim.  Should get a close to the pace trip from the rail with a short run to the clubhouse turn; at 5/1 on the morning line he’s in position to pull the mild upset.  4-Lucky Afternoon is one of the maiden winners, and he came from 10^th down the backside, going today’s same one mile distance to not only win, but win going away as he was clear by seven open lengths.  Could be any kind, but why is he coming back at this conditioned level?  9-Remember Lynn drops out of starter-allowance company following a good second at this level.  The outside post is no bargain and his Beyers seem light in comparison.

Selections

1 – 4 – 9

The Bet:  Pass

2:59      7^th        Allowance                    6 furlongs                                                                                                       

2-Sleetcalling is an automatic selection in spite of his 16/2-4-2 record.  Why?  She is first off the claim for Nick Canani, for owner Frank Calabrese.  They not only are off to a quick start here at Calder since arriving a couple of weeks ago, but the amazing numbers have gone on since last winter at Gulfstream.  Consistently winning better than a third of their races, they are especially deadly first off the claim – like today.  Probably goes off one of the favorites, but she’s the winner.  I am hoping that 6-Landing My Way takes a lion’s share of the wagering money.  She has the Beyers that make her look like the logical pick with three straight races of 77-76-76;  but look at the results:  a maiden win and two close finishes, but not victories.  1-Melody For Maria won by daylight widening the margin through the lane in her debut.  With the rail she will probably be part of the pace – but can she stand the pressure of winners pushing her along?  Especially through the lane?

Selections

2 – 6 – 1

The Bet:  $15 to win on (#2) Sleetcalling

3:26      8^th        Claiming nw2L             9 furlongs – TURF                                                                                           

The field is a combined 3 for 50 on the turf and none, that’s right NONE of them have ever traveled today’s nine furlongs.  It should be an interesting and competitive race.  Any wagering on this race is speculation at best.  But, that’s our job, to provide some direction to our readers.  We’ll side with 6-Mini Miss Tori who started her career here in South Florida on the lawn and was thought enough of by her connections to run in a stakes race as a two-year old.  She came back with a solid 2^nd in her return off the shelf, then had trouble against a notch better in her return to Florida in her last.  With two under her belt and acclimated to the heat, and at a nice 8/1 on the morning line we’ll side with jockey Daniel Centeno to get the job done.  5-Minnieisthestorm is listed at 15/1, but I think she has a legitimate chance with these.  No one is a standout and she has the best Tomlinsons not only for the turf, but for the elongated distance.  Considering the 3-50 record of the field, the fact she’s not been on the grass may work IN HER favor!  2-Consolacion Sur has closed ground going shorter distances, and will get a ground-saving trip.  She may inherit the lead as the others falter.

Selections

6 – 5 – 2

The Bet:  Pass

3:53      9^th        AOC                             1 mile / 70 yards                                                                                              

8-Luna Charm is the tepid selection in this puzzling match-up.  Dropping out of a $100K stake in New York she apparently was highly regarded by her connections.  With questions about all the others, Luna Charm probably rates an edge in class with these.  7-Intense Elvira will go to the front, the question is how much pressure she gets.  If allowed to set slow fractions she would be very dangerous; but if pressured she probably sets the table and doesn’t hit the board.  Don’t overlook 6-Ashlee the Great who is a 7 time winner here at Calder (28/7-7-6 overall here).  She’s not had the best recent form, but is second off the shelf and should be primed off a sprint warm-up in her last. 

Selections

8 – 7 – 6

The Bet:  Pass

4:20      10^th       Maiden Claiming          8 furlongs                                                                                                       

2-Mint Martini may go overlooked in the wagering due to her finish positions, but she illustrates a classing winning angle:  Early speed, class drop.  She has shown good speed in two straight races against better before stopping.  With the inside post she could set sail on an open and easy lead and never look back – at a price!  Upset of the day!  3-Easily Distracted has one start where she finished 7^th of 12 beaten over twelve lengths.  But she is 5/1 on the morning line!  Trainer Bill White wins 24% of his second-time starters, she drops in class, and has Saez in the saddle.  A deserving contender with this field of bottom maidens.  8-Scheme of Love has been out twice, finishing last beaten 34 lengths and last beaten 23 lengths….but is listed at 6/1!  On the drop for sure, but without excuses;  who knows something we don’t?????!!!!!

Selections

2 – 3 – 8

The Bet:  $5 to win on (#2) Mint Martini