Friday October 22 Selections

Friday Oct 22

12:25    1^st         Claiming                      1 mile / 70 yards                                                                                              

5-Jazzaholic wheels back in one week, but his last could not have taken much out of him as he was a distant trailer throughout.  It would be reasonable to draw a line through that effort for a couple of reasons:  first, he’s been on a “good race” – “bad race” cycle over the past five months since being claimed by his current barn.  In addition, his good efforts have all earned Beyers that would bury this field – AND they were earned against open claimers.  Today he races in restricted company, something he’s only done once before – in his next-to-last effort – where he was a near-miss second at today’s distance.  7-Me Making Money would not be much of a stretch of the handicapping imagination to view as a contender.  He’s only raced at Calder seven times, and won two of those; everywhere else he’s a lowly 1 for 18…wow.  In addition his last was off the shelf in a sprint, an obvious prep for today’s race.  And his barn wins a solid 18% second time off a layoff – label him “contender” with these.  9-Beat the Freeze comes off back-to-back runner-up performances for this price tag; one vs. open company, one vs. today’s restricted class.  He goes for a solid barn and has 4 career wins, as well as many slices.  Maybe today.

Selections

5 – 7 – 9

The Bet:  Pass

12:54    2^nd        Maiden Special            8 furlongs                                                                                                       

6-Gladding gets the nod in this unusual event that appears to be a two-horse race on paper.  What Gladding has that his rival, 7-Macarthur Causeway does not have is solid and consistent speed figures on the main track going a route of ground – which fits today’s race.conditions.  He is also lightly raced with the top rider in the irons today.  All these factors should mean it is a “Kodak moment” in the winner’s circle.  Macarthur Causeway has earned speed figures which would make him – on paper – competitive with the top one, however they were earned sprinting and routing on the turf.  What really is a negative about his career is how he’s twice, not once but twice, had the clear lead in mid-stretch, and gave it up.  His last three races are all runner-up performances giving him the look of a runner without much heart.  4-Vanishing Buck has the speed figures to match, on paper, the top two.  But you just have to question his desire to win with FOURTEEN starts, no wins, and EIGHT slices.  Seems he likes to run near the front with his friends, but is very content to let them get their picture taken.  Is he in the Witness Protection Program or what? J

Selections

6 – 7 – 4

The Bet:  $5 to win on (#6) Gladding

1:23      3^rd        Claiming                      5 ½ furlongs                                                                                                    

8-Sweet in the City looms a standout in today’s 3^rd, a potential “BEST” of the day!  The race conditions are open to multiple winning 3-year-olds, or older horses who’ve won three races lifetime.  There is only one other “multiple” winning 3-year old, but Sweet has 3x the wins as that rival.  Sweet in the City has SIX career wins, including three in a row.  His last two were scored by open lengths with both finishes earning the comment, “…drew away.”  They were also at this exact distance, and I don’t think it’s any surprise that they came in his first starts under new “management” as he was claimed out of a narrow win at this level and distance three back.  He has speed, but obviously does not need the lead.  Barring something very odd Sweet in the City will indeed be “sweet” to his backers.  5-My Tiger Man is the rival mentioned above.  And one thing he DOES have in his favor is that he is very lightly raced (4/2-1-0).  He has every right to improve today and threaten for the win.  But the two factors that discourage me are (a) he raced behind Sweet in the City in his last (granted he was coming off a layoff and making his first South Florida start), and (b) he was “steadied” at the start.  This normally would be an excuse to look for better, but he started in post 8 in a field of 8….how did he manage to have to “steady” when perched on the outside?  No works since September are also a negative.  7-General Guti is the “unknown factor” in here.  His record would indicate that he isn’t a big threat, especially to the top one.  BUT…..he is first off the claim and gets a top rider, Manoel Cruz, today.  These two factors could signal a “wake-up” performance today.

Selections

8 – 5 – 7

The Bet:  $20 to win on (#8)

TODAY’S BEST!

1:52      4^th        Claiming nw2L             7 furlongs                                                                                                       

3-Sweet Maria heads a lowly group of “runners” (and I use the term loosely here) in this conditioned claimer at an elongated sprint distance sure to challenge all of them.  At least Sweet Maria is in “good” form and has been in the money in seven of her 11 starts, albeit one win and six minor shares.  She’s run two credible efforts at today’s distance, so she’s probably bound to get some money at the windows.  4-Speed Angel has hit the board in 3 of 8 starts, and has a pretty good work since his last.  The switch to a 7 pound bug rider makes me think the barn is looking for any advantage he can find to get another win.  6-Catty Patty gets a tepid nod to round out the contenders.  The only positive thing here is the “lightly raced” nature of her record (13/1-1-1).  The remaining five horses have five wins from 145 starts….YIKES!

Selections

3 – 4 – 6

The Bet:  Pass (hurry, run away from the windows!)

2:21      5^th        Maiden Claiming          5 ½ furlongs                                                                                                    

8-Summit Wind appears to be sitting on a win, and if able to put away her inside speed rival, should be getting her first victory today.  Summit goes second time out for trainer Wesley Ward who is ALWAYS effective with two-year-old maidens, and especially with 2^nd time starters (34% wins) like Summit.  Rider Jeffrey Sanchez scores with 34% of his mounts for Ward at an excellent $2.94 ROI for every $2 invested.  In addition, in her debut against a notch tougher Summit was out photo’d for the win despite dueling all the way to the wire.  Her cozy outside post should set up a nice stalking position to the stretch where she should run first to the wire.  1-Tikitocki is the filly to beat.  She was favored in her debut against much tougher $50K types and set sail on the lead.  She carried her speed before yielding in deep stretch to finish a well beaten 2^nd by over 3 lengths.  Her barn does well with second-time starters, but her rider is a 5% winning jock, so I’ll side with the stalker over the quitter with the high percentage rider, in spite of the significant class drop.  6-Tippadeedooda debuts from the Kathleen O’Connell shedrow, and she’s a 14% debut winning trainer.  But those winners are good priced horses, enough to earn $2.46 for ever $2 invested.  Daniel Centeno wins a nice 19% for the barn, and could be the upsetter today.

                                                                                  Selections              

8 – 1 – 6

The Bet:  $5 to win on (#8) Summit Wind

2:50      6^th        Claiming nw2L             8 furlongs – TURF                                                                                           

3-Yellow Brick Road

has solid turf form (4/1-1-1) and has accomplished it against better.  You can forgive two of his last three as they were all on off-tracks.  His NLR effort can be “excused” in that he was close to the pace for a half against better before giving way.  Perhaps the drop in class, and his lightly raced record indicates he has still better to show us this afternoon.  8-Maximoso has at least as much talent – based on his record – as the top one, and he’s ridden by top turf jockey Eibar Coa.  However the fact that he’s 7/0-1-4 on the grass leads me to doubt his ability to finish the job.  And it doesn’t help that he needed 13 tries to break his maiden!  2-Unflappable could steal this at a price on the inside.  He’s shown good speed for the last half mile in two of his most recent turf efforts.  He comes in fresh off a layoff for solid trainer Kathleen O’Connell.

Selections

3 – 8 – 2

The Bet:  Pass

3:16      7^th        Claiming nw3L             1 mile / 70 yards                                                                                              

3-Bluewater Cat could just be our “UPSET OF THE DAY” play today.  This conditioned claimer for bottom-level platers has absolutely no speed…..other than Bluewater Cat!  In addition he comes off a 5 furlong turf sprint effort fresh off shipping to South Florida just seven days ago.  His trainer 19% with these quick-turnaround types, and has a sparkling 34% win rate when going from dirt to turf.  It is also interesting that the horse had run at Suffolk Downs, and today is ridden by a solid Suffolk jockey who wins 27% for this trainer!  Loose on the lead and LONG gone!  2-Lite Up The Stage is certain to draw betting attention based on his solid record (13/2-2-4) and his excellent recent form (1-1-2 in his last four starts).  He just seems like the kind of horse that doesn’t really want to win.  7-El Tabrawy comes off a near miss 2^nd and a photo win in his last two – both against $10K 2L types.  The drop to $6250 3L seems logical.  His good form should play well today.

Selections

3 – 2 – 7

The Bet:  $5 to win on (#3) Bluewater Cat

UPSET SELECTION OF THE DAY!

 

3:45      8^th        Claiming nw3L             8 ½ furlongs – TURF                                                                                       

7-Quiet Emarati bears all the typical characteristics of a Frank Calabrese horse.  His trainer is scoring at a phenomenal rate (42% in 2010) and today marks a drop in class after running back-to-back 2^nds at Arlington Park – which I think is a higher quality of turf racing that what we find here at Calder.  The drop from the $25K to today’s $16K should get the job done, albeit at a short price.  Want a price play?  How about 3-Cover Price?  Never been on the turf and only been a route of ground once.  But he appears, especially from his inside post, to be the speed of the field.  With top local rider Luis Saez in the saddle he could be LONG gone on the stretch-out.  4-Authority Rules consistently runs the kind of numbers on the grass that would win this race.  He is ridden by our other top local jockey, Manny Cruz.  He will be flying late!  But his 14/0-4-1 record makes me think he’s better used underneath on the exotic tickets.

Selections

7 – 3 – 4

The Bet:  $5 to win on (#7) Quiet Emarati

4:14      9^th        Starter Allowance         5 ½ furlongs                                                                                                    

Hard to look past 5-Pink Gloss in here.  She’s rattled off seven wins in a row; all seven have been sprinting here at Calder with three of them at this exact distance; AND she’s done it against Starter Allowance company of a notch higher in quality.  She fired a bullet to prepare for her return off a short break, and is the epitome of a Horse-For-The Course with a Calder record of 13/10-2-0…..wow.  And, as if you need more rationale, she’s a “Horse-for-the-Distance” with a stellar record of 6/4-2-0 at today’s super sprint distance.  Who wouldn’t bet her?  Well, there is the issue of coming off a bit of a layoff, and her only return-off-a-layoff race showing was NOT a win.  If that gives you confidence to go against her, best of luck.  I say, take the short price and add her as another winner to your tally sheet!  8-Cara’s Song could, maybe, pull the upset.  She too is a HFC with a record locally of 14/7-0-2 and at the distance of 6/4-0-1.  AND, she’s also been compiling her stats against better.  It is encouraging – if you are going for the price play – that Pink Gloss and Cara’s Song share a vanquished foe…..Seed of Faith (who is entered in this race also).  When Pink Gloss last saw her she won off by about 3 lengths and earned a Beyer of 82.  When Cara’s Song last saw Seed of Faith she only earned a Beyer of 79 – comparable – but she beat Seed of Faith by a dominating 9+ lengths.  Food for thought……  3-Cruz Missile had a four race win streak snapped in his last when 3^rd at 6/5.  Claimed out of that race he goes for new connections with a new pilot.

Selections

5 – 8 – 3

The Bet:  $15 to win on (#5) Pink Gloss

4:40      10^th       Claiming nw2L             5 ½ furlongs – TURF                                                                                       

1-Sliding In is listed as the morning line favorite, and probably deserves that honor.  There are several speed types lined up to his inside, and from his far outside post he should get a perfect trip.  His ability to finish through the lane is unique in this speed-laden lineup.  But most importantly he is lightly raced and has NEVER seen 2L competition.  Rallying on the turn he should draw clear.  4-Sculptor is one of the speed types, and is on the inside to benefit from his early foot.  If he runs back to his lone turf try where he set a wicked pace of :21.3 and :44.3 he might be all alone turning for home, and speed is always dangerous at the race track!  2-Certifiably Royal looks to have a rating gear, and won off a layoff (which he is doing today) previously.  Eibar Coa adds to the appeal; he’ll need to negotiate the trip with his rail post.

Selections

1 – 4 – 2

The Bet:  Pass

5:05      11^th       Maiden Claiming          8 furlongs                                                                                                       

1-Score One For Rose offers fair value sitting on the fence and stretching out today.  She’s bred all over for a distance of ground and makes just her second start today – maybe in here.  9-Alissa’s Engineer has shown a willingness to pass horses in the stretch – or is she just “less tired?”  Regardless, her finishing style might play well today if there is a battle near the front-end.  7-Ab Attack is listed at 15/1, but who can honestly rule any of these runners out in this company?  He has run against better, and has shown a willingness to battle early.

Selections

1 – 9 – 7

The Bet:  Pass