Thursday October 21 Selections

12:25    1^st         Claiming                      8 furlongs                                                                                                        

1-Sicilian Honor has paired Beyers of 59 in her last two races, and has several races with speed figures above this;  it would not be at all surprising to see her take another step forward today.  She won her last at 2-5 odds, while beating conditioned $5K company, of which the second place runner has returned to score.  Veteran Eibar Coa has the mount today.  10-Richie London is the 5-2 morning line favorite, and is an 8x winner at Calder as well as a 6 for 19 record at the distance.  His far outside post, with the short run into the first turn….and his anticipated low price, combined with a new rider for a new barn make him a vulnerable favorite I think.  3-Cute Kittie appears to be the speed of the speed on the inside.  If able to shake loose she could take them a long way.  However her tendency to stop, and her barn’s weak 3 for 42 winning stats make me believe she won’t be on top when the camera flashes.

Selections

1 – 10 – 3

The Bet:  Pass

12:54    2^nd        Maiden Claiming         6 furlongs                                                                                                        

1-Acapella Champion began his career with three races around two turns, two of them on the grass.  He was beaten a combined 59 lengths and was in front of a grand total of five horses (of 28) in those races.  But in his latest he turned back to a sprint, at this class level and was beaten by half a length while finishing second.  Should save all the ground and get the job done today unless one of the firsters has talent.  That first-time starter might be 3-Picopico Time.  He shows a sharp bullet nine days ago, and like the top pick in the opener has lured Eibar Coa to the irons.  Interestingly Coa shows a $2.83 ROI when riding for trainer Catanese.  7-Olympic Tour debuted in a key race over a sloppy track in mid-August.  The running line looks like he broke behind the field, but was running strongly to finish 4^th.  The runner-up came back to score in his next out.  With an alert beginning, and on a dry track he might get a nice stalking trip.

Selections

1 – 3 – 7

The Bet:  Pass

1:23      3^rd        Starter Allowance        8 furlongs                                                                                                        

9-Usain Again is lightly raced, having won four of his six starts.  On closer examination, his last was his worst performance, but significantly it was first and only try sprinting.  In all five other starts he went a distance of ground…. Winning four and finishing second in the other.  Regular rider Luis Saez is back in the saddle, and with his stalking style he should get a good trip near the front and be difficult to run down late.  10-Bridled Quest was dominant in his last, earning a solid Beyer of 77.  When on top of his game – granted over a year and a half ago – he was earning figures like this on a regular basis.  At 10-1 on the morning line he could surprise!  1-Briney Lad gets Coa on board, and is first off the claim for Kathleen O’Connell.  That is a 27% winning angle for her;  Briney Lad also goes synthetic to dirt, and the last time he did that he won!  First time at Calder, he does show a work over the surface and could make some noise at 8-1.

Selections

9 – 10 – 1

The Bet:  $5 to win on (#9) Usain Again

1:52      4^th        Maiden Claiming         8 ½ furlongs – TURF                                                                                        

6-Causality ships from the tough NYRA circuit to South Florida for William Phipps.  She debuted going at a route of one mile in a race scheduled to be on the Belmont turf.  Rained off the grass, she stayed in and broke 11 lengths behind the field before making a strong middle move, then fading.  Bred for the turf, and out of a barn that excels with 2^nd starters, as well as debut turf runners, Causality looks formidable off a bullet work for her South Florida debut.  2-Silverest ran a strong third to super-filly Awesome Feather in her second start – sprinting on the main.  Her bloodlines don’t scream turf, but they don’t insist on the main – so if she can take to the surface she could threaten.  8-Affair On The Bay has the best turf breeding and if able to overcome the outside post AND the fact that today is her debut, she could light up the tote board.

Selections

6 – 2 – 8

The Bet:  $10 to win on (#6) Causality

2:21      5^th        Claiming                      6 ½ furlongs                                                                                                    

9-Jazz Nation ran here twice last fall without having any impact; but once the racing shifted to Hallandale his form improved and his speed figures soared.  He spent the summer in Boston at Suffolk Downs and consistently earned Beyers in the mid-70s which would beat his competition today on a regular basis.  Interesting that his regular Suffolk rider is in town to ride today.  Having consistently faced tougher, run faster, and beat better, Jazz Nation is a very solid selection in today’s fifth.  Should the top one fail to fire, one alternative might be longshot 5-Mad Mecke.  Prior to his break from January to September, Mad Mecke had been running agains much, MUCH better competition and holding his own.  Note, however, these were races restricted to 3-year-olds.  Coming off the 9 month layoff and facing older for the first time, his first two tries here have not been encouraging.  However he is dropping in class, and you just never know…..

It’s also VERY interesting that Mecke gets a rider who wins only 8% of his mounts, but wins 24% for trainer Manny Tortora, and he has an ROI of $9.33 for every $2 wagered….uh oh!  2-Hyphen draws the rail and gets Coa.  His win two back against starter $5K types would rate him a chance in here.  At one time he was a stakes-quality colt.  On the drop down today….hmmmmm.

Selections

9 – 5 – 2

The Bet:  $15 win on (#9) Jazz Nation

2:50      6^th        Claiming nw 2L           8 furlongs – TURF                                                                                           

4-Follia broke his maiden on the Arlington carpet, then shipped to Saratoga for a grass sprint.  He ran well, finishing fourth.  He was claimed out of that race by top Boston trainer Marcus Vitali, who’s winning 29% of his runners this year, AND is getting 27% winners when putting Oscar Bochachica in the saddle.  The two look solid together in here on the try against restricted winners.  8-Mr. Rico will provide his backers a thrill – that’s guaranteed!  He wants the front, and he is almost certain to have the front.  Just how far he lasts is the ultimate question!  5-Black Tie Spirit sports an abysmal record of 19/1-6-3; but the fact that Manoel Cruz sticks with him speaks highly of his chances to provide some big mutual numbers.

Selections

4 – 8 – 5

The Bet:  $5 to win on (#4 Follia)

3:20      7^th        AOC                 7 furlongs                                                                                                                    

7-Thank U Phillipe falls into the ideal spot today;  There is a plethora (nice vocab!) of speed today to set up his late run, and today’s race is at his MUCH preferred distance.  In fact, his only two victories are at this distance.  Marty Wolfson has him ideally spotted for the win.  In the other 11 races where Phillipe has NOT won, he has hit the board frequently, and they were nearly all against better, AND all can be excused……LR: 2-turn stakes race; NLR:  7f but against Gr 2 in NY; 3 back, a win at 7f in the Soph Stakes at Tampa; and the previous six were all routes;  prior, a 7f here at Calder, and a win!  Today’s his day to get his picture taken….load up!  4-Green Vegas is the “wise guy” alternative, because like Thank U Phillipe, 7 panels is his preferred distance.  And though he’s been defeated by a couple of today’s rivals, those races were at a shorter distance, and not nearly as much pace pressure as those runners will get today.  1a-He’s Alright is lightly raced, and turns back from route to a 7 furlong sprint…the ideal turnback move.  His route races establish him as a stalker, and he COULD get the perfect trip as all the other runners are either confirmed front-runners (who will burn each other out and/or are quitters) and confirmed closers.

Selections

7 – 4 – 1a

The Bet:  $15 to win on (#7) Thank U Phillipe

3:50      8^th        Maiden Claiming         5 ½ furlongs                                                                                                    

4-Tooquicktoconsent has stopped in two consecutive races against lesser class no less, but yet today just might be his day.  First, there is no other speed to go with him; second, he led in mid-stretch last time out going 6 furlongs, and today’s heat is at 5 ½ furlongs; and third Eibar Coa has the mount – he will try to ration the speed unlike the previous riders.  

2-Long Grove is a viable, legitimate longshot.  He’s listed at 20-1 on the morning line and is ridden by a top jockey, Daniel Centeno.  He has only been out once when he showed little.  But he’s come back with a sharp bullet work for a barn that scores 17% with return runners with an outstanding ROI of $2.98 per $2 invested.  Watch out in here. 

8-Unbridled Sword is a first-time starter and that may be the key to beating a field of proven losers.

Selections

4 – 2 – 8

The Bet:  Pass