Saturday October 23 Selections

2:25    1^st         Claiming                      6 ½ furlongs                                                                                                    

3-Biblionico, unlike his seven rivals, is lightly raced.  The field has 298 starts – but Biblionico has only been to the gate 12 times, and has been in the money 9 times, while winning three of those.  He shows a running style that should have him close to a moderate pace today, and he shouldn’t have a lot of problems outfinishing his “loveable losers” that line up as rivals today.  He goes for a new barn as well, and they win 21% of their first acquisitions.  7-Fifenineteen has only five starts and only his maiden win – in his next to last start.  However he hasn’t been seen since last April.  Two slow works make you wonder how fit he is, but he has not proven to be a losing proposition.  And on that alone he rates the status of a contender.  4-Of All Times won in December 2009, and then again in his last start September 24, 2010.  In between he was a multiple loser – 9 times – without hitting the board.  However, perhaps he can be forgiven as those races were on the Aqueduct inner, the turf, and all against MUCH better than he faces here.  I think it’s no coincidence that he won his last when making his first start for the Calabrese stable, with a 42% trainer managing him.  Can he repeat without a single work over the track, and not a single race over a fast dirt track?  Not for me at a short price!

Selections

3 – 7 – 4

The Bet:  Pass

12:50    2^nd        Maiden Claiming          6 furlongs                                                                                                       

2-Miss Alondra makes her debut for a 15% FTS barn.  However she may be a solid value play at 6/1 on the morning line.  Her works are not especially noteworthy, unless you go back and see that in mid-August and early September she was cooking very quickly in the a.m.  Add to the mix that her rider wins at a 21% clip for the barn and perhaps – with the field lacking a standout – you have the right mix for the upset!  3-Pleasant Heiress was bet down to 7/1 for her debut and was bounced around at the start against Maiden Specials.  She’s worked nicely for a comeback, and the first-time drop into the selling ranks is one of the most powerful moves in racing.  1-Cosmic Song debuted at 5 furlongs for this tag and missed in a tight photo under top rider Manny Cruz.  She went on to face Maiden Allowance types in her last two; the last in a two-turn experiment.  Never worse than 4^th, the return to the level of her best finish may do the trick.

Selections

2 – 3 – 1

The Bet:  $5 to win on (#2) Miss Alondra

1:14      3^rd        Maiden Claiming          8 ½ furlongs – TURF                                                                                       

6-Atlantic Breeze has had two sprints to begin her career.  Both were originally scheduled for the turf, but came off.  Her breeding suggests that turf and two-turns is her forte.  In both her starts she showed good early speed, and they were against Maiden Specials.  Today she drops for first-time tag, doesn’t meet any obvious contenders, and may have the lead all to herself.  She is a big threat at a nice, juicy price.  5-Reba’s Affair has finished second in her last two starts – two back on the turf, when 2^nd by nine lengths but clear of the show horse; and in her last start a closer runner-up performance in a race off the turf.  A step forward today would make her a legitimate contender.  11-Sweet Argument is stuck on the AE’s, and even if she gets in would be drawing the far outside.  BUT….her last two starts have earned far and away the top speed figures – but to be fair those were against a notch weaker.

Selections

6 – 5 – 11

The Bet:  Pass

1:40      4^th        Claiming nw2L             5 ½ furlongs                                                                                                    

1-Magdalena Girl appears to be a real standout in here today.  She’s lightly raced (3/1-0-1) and all three starts were at the MUCH tougher Saratoga summer meet.  She was third in her debut and came right back to score.  She went to 2L $10K company and had some excuses.  But not only does she get the “drop” in circuits, and in price tag, but today she is first off the claim for a 29% outfit that wins with first claims at a 44% hit rate!  She’s worked over the Calder strip and her jockey wins 27% for this barn.  Hard to deny with her inside speed.  3-Believeinthemoment has seen MUCH tougher and never been entered this cheap – that is a positive.  But her record of a single win in THIRTY-THREE starts leaves me lacking in confidence in spite the class drop; much better on the underneath part of the ticket.  8-Ruby Rouge comes out of two open races for this price tag – and was soundly beaten – but when last seen for a conditioned tag she was competitive.  Again, her record of 1 for 29 leaves much to be desired!

Selections

1 – 3 – 8

The Bet:  $15 to win on (#1) Magdalena Girl

2:06      5^th        Maiden Claiming          1 mile / 70 yards                                                                                              

WARNING ALL HANDICAPPERS!!!! CHAOS ALERT!

7-Shotgun Donna gets the VERY tepid nod in here.  She lost her last by over 12 lengths and has never hit the board – and she is the favorite!  What does that tell you?  At least she’s only been out four times, and today is her third start off the shelf.  Her last was a 4^th place finish and against a notch better.  3-Duchess of Doom will probably go off as the chalk based on two starts, both against twice the price tag as these.  However those were turf events, and the bottom level on the turf is where she was running….so I’d say the price tag reflects the surface, not the class of animal she saw last out.  Finally, let’s go with 4-Panyiota who may try to steal this, and there is NO ONE to go with her….maybe!

Selections

7 – 3 – 4

The Bet:  Stay away, stay VERY FAR away from the windows!

2:32      6^th        Maiden Claiming          8 ½ furlongs – TURF                                                                                       

9-Conway Candy provides mixed signals today.  Being a progeny of Candy Ride makes him an immediate contender as the Candy Ride offspring have proven over and over again to be excellent turf runners.  The drop from MSW in for a tag today is also a positive; and trainer David Fawkes is an excellent 20% with 2^nd time starters (and a $2.38 ROI with MSW to MdClm).  So what’s the rub?  Jockey Pedro Monteray is an O’fer for the barn – an abysmal 0 for 17.  Yikes!  Something has to give!  A fair price (6/1 on the ML) is a must!  8-Flying Approval responded well in his first drop in for a tag, running second behind a runaway winner, but well clear of third.  Not particularly fashionable for the turf, but good enough under jockey Manoel Cruz to be a contender.  11-Malicious would be a contender if he draws in – perhaps an even bigger threat if he draws in and the race is moved to the main track.  He’ll probably go somewhat overlooked being on the outside, and the potential pace setter.  Don’t let him slip by at a price!

Selections

9 – 8 – 11

The Bet:  Pass

3:00      7^th        Claiming nw2L             1m / 70 yards                                                                                                  

The field is a combined 8 for 167 – oh my!  All but one has been beaten at the 2L level – another “Who Knows?” race…….

4-Closing Man gets the slimmest of nods having only 9 starts and drawing top rider Luis Saez.  He dueled on the lead the entire way in his last going slightly farther at this condition.  If the race didn’t take too much out of him he could be set for a win with a repeat performance.  1-Givemethirtydays is a stretch-out sprinter who has tried a route, and stalked the pace.  That would set him up nicely….if he can keep pace.  Seems a bit of a hanger and doesn’t inspire confidence.  The final selection falls to 3-Sun Demon who is the lone runner NOT to have lost at the 2L level.  However he is a last-out maiden winner, and he took nine tries to accomplish that.  Manoel Cruz in the saddle gives a semblance of hope to the bettors.

Selections

4 – 1 – 3

3:27      8^th        Claiming                      6 ½ furlongs                                                                                                    

3-Raging Trip has run improved Beyer speed figures since his return from an early summer vacation last July.  That is a span of six consecutive races, topped by a new career best in his last against MUCH stronger.  The drop, and a continued improvement would get the job done from a stalking position today.  Even a slight regression would probably be good enough here.  The horse to stalk, and to beat, is 8-Khan of Kahns who is a 5x winner on the tough NYRA circuit.  He goes first time locally for super-owner Frank Calabrese and is trained by 42% winning trainer Ron Faucheaux.  Ridden by the talented Manny Cruz he appears the speed of the field; and if he can clear comfortably from the outside he would be very dangerous!  1-Great Blade could upset the field at a fair price.  He’ll get a ground-saving trip, and was in solid form before going on the shelf.  He returns today with a 10 pound apprentice….that light impost might be enough to make a difference – especially if the top two don’t bring their “A” game.

Selections

3 – 8 – 1

The Bet:  $5 to win on (#3) Raging Trip

3:54      9^th        AOC                             8 furlongs – TURF                                                                                           

11-Ducduc a new horse – 2 for 2 on the turf – since claimed by Calabrese-Canani (shocking I know!).  Has won wire-to-wire, and won closing from the clouds….so the post should make little difference.  His winning form should carry the day with jockey Cruz on board.  2-Nineinthenine has improved – Beyer wise – in his last three turf starts.  May go overlooked in the wagering and could be a factor from the inside.  5-Musca was right there with Ducduc this summer, and bet down to 4/1, before running into traffic and losing by nearly 4 lengths.  With a clean trip he could surprise.

Selections

11 – 2 – 5

The Bet:  $10 to win on (#11) Ducduc

4:21      10^th       Starter Allowance         5 furlongs                                                                                                       

2-Lila Louann is a double-fig horse who should dominate this event from her inside post.  She’s nearly paired her last two, field-high figures (70-71) and has a higher number in her debut (79).  A move forward, especially if she gets loose on the lead, she should be a handy winner.  7-No More Yogis earned a 70 in her last, but she has since been claimed from a high percentage barn to a lower percentage barn.  She actually finished in front of the top one when they met on the turf in a stakes race; but you have to wonder about a runner, like Yogis, who was stakes placed and then entered for a 2L tag?  And now in a new barn?  And on the outside post?  I hope she takes a lot of money at the windows….more for us to collect!  6-Daisy Lee finished in front of both the top two choices in that stakes race; but has come back with poor efforts, albeit trying a route of ground.  The turnback to 5 furlongs from a turf route – not the traditional way to wake up a horse;  and the rider today, Gary Bain REALLY struggles to win races.  I hope she takes money as well.

Selections

2 – 7 – 6

The Bet:  $10 to win on (#2) Lila Louann

4:48      11^th       Allowance                    7 ½ furlongs – TURF                                                                                       

5-Motovato has been in nine straight stakes including many graded events.  He lays over this field on class; the only question is his ability to handle the surface as he’s never been on the grass.  But his Tomlinson’s say he should love the green stuff.  Coming out of the Marty Wolfson barn, my guess is that he isn’t prepping for anything – they must believe he has a chance here – maybe they are thinking Florida Million Day and a turf stakes for a bigger purse?  I hope many people think he cannot handle the grass, as I’ll be on board.  Should this come off the grass Motovato will be a “BEST of the Day” investment!  4-Entertaining is a six-time turf winner, although against lesser.  Still, turf winners win turf races, and with Motovato unproven on the grass…..well, stranger things have happened.  2-Mean Sax has run three consecutive 90 Beyers when on the turf.  If the top one doesn’t handle the weeds, he’d be a prime candidate at a price.

Selections

5 – 4 – 2

The Bet:  $15 to win on (#5) Motovato

On the main track:  $30 to win on (#5) Motovato

5:13      12^th       Maiden Claiming          7 furlongs                                                                                                       

3-Lucky Indian is the lone first-timer and that qualifies him as a contender in a field filled with runners who have all been beaten at this bottom level of maidens.  9-Cash Us Now turns back from two turns and has far superior Beyers.  But with only one in-the-money finish – even though against better – I’d be reluctant to back him at a short price.  10-Stop Play’n will almost certainly gun to the front….how long he’s able to control the tempo will determine his chances.  But at a nice price you could do worse looking for a longshot!

Selections

3 – 9 – 10

The Bet:  Pass