Sunday October 31 Selections

12:25    1^st         Claiming nw3L             6 ½ furlongs                                                                                                   

2-Lance’s Song seems pretty obvious as you look at the past performances, yet he’s 6/1 on the morning line.  Drops from open company to restricted company and has been competitive against $10K types – above today’s cellar dwellers.  Gets top rider Luis Saez.  6-Enormiso is lightly raced and may have just figured out this racing thing.  After spending the first six races wandering around the track he suddenly woke up and was a just miss second.  Then he broke his maiden, and in his last came right back to score decisively in 2L competition.  Takes the next logical step today.  7-Well Tanned Prez woke up three back with a decisive maiden score, and like Enormiso followed that up with a decisive win against 2L company.  In his last he showed early speed vs. $10K types, then stopped.  Drops back down to the bottom and could threaten here. 

Selections

2 – 6 – 7

The Bet:  $5 to win on (#2) Lance’s Song

12:53    2^nd        Maiden Claiming          6 furlongs                                                                                                       

2-Universal Soul debuted for this $40K level and was a good second.  His next two were in MSW company without any kind of ability.  Back down for a tag should do the trick.  7-Chagu Mio debuted for a $32K tag and was a nice 2^nd.  Up a notch today shouldn’t pose much of a problem, and he is on the contender list as well.  3-D Dream gets top jock Manny Cruz, but debuts for a less than successful FTS outfit.  Works aren’t special, but I suspect you don’t have to be much to win here.

Selections

2 – 7 – 3

The Bet:  PASS

1:17      3^rd        Claiming nw2L             6 ½ furlongs                                                                                                    

Much like the opener, this one looks like an obvious choice….except this time the selection is the morning line favorite in the field:  2-Wild Rate.  He’s run three straight 2L sprints against tougher and was very competitive.  Draw a line through the route experiments and you’ll see why he’s the likely chalk with Cruz up.  6-Givemethirtydays is back in just 8 days after running evenly against better going two turns.  The drop in class might be the impetus for a victory.  8-Smart Cole ran back to back solid races three back and two back before throwing in a real clunker in his last.  A return to the previous form and he’s got a chance.

Selections

2 – 6 – 8

The Bet:  $10 to win on (#2) Wild Rate

1:43      4^th        Claiming nw2L             1 mile/70 yards                                                                                                

8-Puchador is lightly raced with a record of 7/1-1-2 (compared to the rest of the field’s 9 combined for 220 – YIKES!).  That statistic in and of itself makes him a contender.  However what draws my attention is when you examine his races more closely you will see that he has sprinted four times, without any success at all.  He tried turf in his last against $16K competition;  his other two races were the lone two dirt routes….a solid second and a win!  The drop in class and return to his best distance marks him the winner!  3-The Cat Rules is 1 for 13, but he is frequently around the winners in his races.  You could make a case for his dismal finish in his last in that he was making his first start since March.  With Luis Saez onboard he’ll be asked for his best today.  7-Mandate to Run is the likely pacesetter, and he could get brave on the front end.  It’s disconcerting however that he set the pace to the stretch in his last, then faded to last beaten over 27 lengths with the comment “pulled up.”  And then no works since?  Ouch.

Selections

8 – 3 – 7

The Bet:  $5 to win on (#8) Puchador

2:11      5^th        Maiden Special            5 furlongs – TURF                                                                                           

Half the field is making their debut and nine of the ten have never tried the grass.  CHAOS ALERT!  5-Fighting Jo Jo represents our best hope in picking a winner based on the evidence in a race like this – no past performances to guide us we are left with human connections; and is there ANYONE better to rely on than the team of owner Frank Calabrese and trainer Nick Canani?  Jo Jo has two synthetic outings which may provide a clue as to her turf ability – a pace setting 4^th in her debut and a pace setting second at 6 ½ furlongs.  Trainer stats:  33% fresh, 50% ($3.96 ROI) with first turf, 28% with turf sprinters, and 40% overall with turf runners!  That is all good enough to inspire some confidence!  The best-bred, by Tomlinson numbers, for the grass would be 6-Smurf City who debuted at one mile on the grass in July.  She stalked the pace to half mile pole, forged to the lead and then understandably gave way.  Maybe in a sprint she’ll last to the wire and get her photo taken.  4-Catch the Beat has all the right Tomlinsons to say she’ll like the surface – maybe if the top two don’t fire she’ll make an impression.

Selections

5 – 6 – 4

The Bet:  $5 to win on (#5) Fighting Jo Jo

2:37      6^th        Claiming                      5 ½ furlongs                                                                                                    

4-My Friend Rosario sports a solid 10/3-1-1 record at the distance.  Her last try at the distance was a stalk and finish win at Tampa at 28/1!  She has not seen this distance since and could make an impression today if ready;  her bullet work says she is ready for a big effort here.  5-Marikitten is the 9/5 favorite coming out of the powerful stable of Canani and Calabrese.  But I am willing to go against here (HERESY!) as her last was the first off the claim, the deadly move for this team, and she was only third at 1-2.  A layoff and a move to real dirt provides too many questions for me in this one.  Sometimes you just have to take a stand against them, they can’t win them all…..can they?  1a-Cara’s Song is a very likely winner based on her “Horse-for-the-Course” status – a 7 time winner here at Calder, and sporting a 7/4-0-1 record at the distance.  I do not care for her entry-mate and the price looks short for a likely favorite.

Selections

4 – 5 – 1a

The Bet:  PASS

3:02      7^th        Claiming                      8 furlongs                                                                                                       

4-Smashing Thru looks to clear the field with the short run to the first turn, and with little other pace in the field and the most probable winner lagging behind he could get very brave at a very nice price.  Nothing like LONE SPEED to steal the show, especially in the lower claiming levels where inconsistency rules!  Where’s the wire!!!!  11-Cove Star is the one of the few winners at the distance, and in fact has an admirable 11/3-2-1 record at the distance.  However he’s marooned in post 11 and that’s a lot to overcome.  But if the top one gives up the ghost in the end, and none of the others in here have a win or are dropping significantly in class he may overcome the post.  6-Briney Lad has four wins at the distance and has stalked the pace to score before.  Seems unlikely on the step up in class, after tossing in the towel chasing the anticipated pace he’ll see today when first off the claim.  But, hey, you never know…..

Selections

4 – 11 – 6

The Bet:  PASS

3:27      8^th        Allowance                    6 ½ furlongs                                                                                                    

8-Kiernan’s Legacy has won 4 times at Calder, but more importantly has earned a Beyer in the 80s five times.  3-Sure Success has earned three Beyers in the 80s.  The remainder of the field – ZERO Beyers in the 80s.  It appears that this is strictly a two-horse race.  I’m going to side with the multiple Calder winner, Kiernan’s Legacy.  He seems best suited to be able to win this weak allowance event.  It would be no surprise if Sure Success wins, but with a single Calder victory and a rider that is a mere 1 for 24 at the Tropical meet, I don’t have a lot of confidence in his chances.  6-Where’s Sterling is a very interesting proposition.  It’s been well documented in several of my writings about the success of Frank Calabrese with Nick Canani.  Well here is a horse from those connections in this allowance test – no surprise, until you note that this runner has only started twice, and LOST both of them…..so here’s a MAIDEN in allowance company.  And yet, the morning line is a short 5/1.  What do “they” know that I don’t? 

Selections

8 – 3 – 6

The Bet:  PASS

3:53      9^th        AOC                             6 ½ furlongs                                                                                                    

1-She’s Hot Hot has fired back-to-back lifetime Beyer highs while winning both races.  Both of these events were won in wire-to-wire fashion, in spite of breaking near the outside of the field.  Today, though stepping up, She’s Hot Hot finds herself not only on the rail which plays to her front-running style, but in a field lacking ANY PACE!  She’s Hot Hot should be LOOSE ON THE LEAD from the opening bell and is a huge favorite in my mind here.  3-Carphonic won her debut here at Calder a year ago, then followed that with a win in the Joe O’Farrell Stakes.  She took a short break and ran in the Grade 3 Old Hat in early January.  She was well beaten that day and has not been seen since.  She has a stalking style and if she is ready, she is a solid class play.  5-Grazioso was claimed out of a maiden Gulfstream win by Team Calabrese-Canani and in a no-brainer, came right back to score in allowance company.  That was in April….and she has not won since.  Fresh off the layoff, she is a stalker, and if ready could be the winner. 

Selections

1 – 3 – 5

The Bet:  $20 to win on (#1) She’s Hot Hot

4:19      10^th       Maiden Claiming          1 mile / 70 yards                                                                                              

9-Great Bear debuted at the bottom $12.5 level and was a neck away from winning his sprint debut.  He stretches out today and the added distance should play right into his favor.  The outside post might actually help him track an inside leader, and that would provide him with his best chance here.  3-Hear To Me showed some early lick running at seven furlongs before stopping badly.  With no proven speed, he may take off on the lead and could get brave.  2-Wireless Macho takes his first drop to the bottom, and gets top rider Luis Saez.  Those two factors may be enough to put him into the winner’s circle.

Selections

9 – 3 – 2

The Bet:  PASS