1st Maiden Claiming 7 furlongs
4-Ulterior Motive ran some big races for Dick Dutrow before being transferred to his new digs here in South Florida . His last was a good 4th against better, where he was up on the pace through the first half mile. The drop today, and a fair price puts him at the top of the selection sheet for the opener. 5-Guiding Spirit came off the shelf and ran a nice third vs. better in his last. You’d think he’d be one of the leading contenders, but he is listed at 20/1. Have to think he has a better chance than the morning line favorite, 6-Tasso’s Affair who is a 13 time maiden loser! True, he finished just in front of Guiding Spirit in his last but I think Tasso has proven what kind of competitive spirit he has.
Selections
4 – 5 – 6
The Bet: PASS
2nd Claiming nw2L 5 furlongs
Wow – slim choices in this race for non-winners of two lifetime. Just to show what we are dealing with, the top two selections on the morning line are 16/1-4-1 and 18/1-5-4! Hard to have confidence in either of them, so let’s shop for a price in here……. 5-Grand Dazzle is lightly raced – a real plus with these – and curiously has run four solid races (a fourth, three thirds, and his maiden win). However he has two abysmal finishes, one in his last. But he bounced back off his previous poor effort, so maybe today; and at 20/1 – he’s worth a flyer. 2-Royal Brat enjoys the “advantage” that he’s never lost at Calder. True, he’s been beaten at this level and sports a less than inspiring 11/1-1-1 record; however he does draw rider Luis Saez and is 6/1. 8-Liquid Fire is also lightly raced, and like Royal Brat has never lost at Calder. He ships in from the Midwest and might wake-up here in the sunshine state.
Selections
5 – 2 – 8
The Bet: PASS
3rd Claiming nw3L 8 ½ furlongs – TURF
Like earlier in the week, in spite of the sunshine throughout the week, we did have a couple of showers, which might mean Calder’s management will take the race off the turf; let’s assume they don’t….. the field is a combined 6 for 78 on the grass, but three of the six wins belong to our top two selections. 4-Ventania has a 6/2-0-2 record on turf, and that has been accomplished against better competition/class than she will see today. It’s also of note that in EVERY ONE of her turf efforts, she has never been beaten by 2 lengths or more! Her Beyers put her at the top of the list, and is a well deserved favorite in here. 9-Shesoffthescale earns similar accolades for her turf accomplishments with a record of consistency: 4/1-1-1. Her Beyers are lighter however and she has been beaten at this level previously. 8-Tut’s Treasure has run some big races with a couple of Beyers good enough to win this, but her 23/2-8-1 overall record does not inspire any confidence in spite of Eibar Coa’s presence in the saddle.
Selections:
4 – 9 – 8
The Bet: $5 to win on (#4) Ventania
4th Maiden Claiming 6 furlongs
5-Without Love debuted in a Maiden Claiming $50K turf sprint at Arlington
Selections
5 – 1 – 2
The Bet: PASS
5th Claiming 8 ½ furlongs – TURF
5-Ice Baby Ice has two solid angles going for him in this conditioned claiming event….first, he is a new shooter to a group of runners who’ve taken turns beating each other; and second, he appears to be the LONE SPEED on the race. He’s wired turf routers before, and if left alone he could be long gone today. 10-Flyin Trey beat several of these last out by stalking the pace from an outside post….hmmm, post 10 – a repeat of his last, a career best Beyer, would make him a repeat winner. 3-Green Bluff check in 2nd, literally, behind Flyin Trey in that last. He was “…checked on the turn…” reads the comment. With a clean trip he might be able to reverse the finish order.
Selections
5 – 10 – 3
The Bet: $10 to win on (#5) Ice Baby Ice
6th Claiming nw2L 7 furlongs
3-Miss Muddy Light was a distant trailer in her last, her first try against winners. A return to the form she showed in her first two races makes this lightly raced miss a contender. 2-Queen of Pearls turned back from a route to 7 panels in mid-August and responded with a double-digit length victory. That happens to be the ONLY win at 7 furlongs showing in this field. Today…..she turns back from a turf route! Uh oh!!! 4-Boogie Woogie has a sorry 16/1-6-4 record, but is first off the claim today for a barn that scores with 29% of those kind. Maybe…..
Selections
3 – 2 – 4
The Bet: PASS
7th Claiming nw2L 5 ½ furlongs
5-Checkpointcharlie is one of only two in here NOT coming off their maiden win. In his debut ‘Charlie scored stalking the pace. He came back in his latest to stalk the pace in a starter allowance, and was right there in mid-stretch of a 6 furlong dash before weakening. The drop in for a first conditioned tag; the experience against winners; and the turnback all spell V-I-C-T-O-R-Y today! 6-It’sapossibility would probably be preferred as the “other” runner who’s faced winners because he’s run faster speed figures. However he is a “need to lead” type and several of the last-out maiden winners want the front. Even if they do not beat ‘Possibility to the front, he’ll likely be compromised on the front end. Of the maiden winners, 7-Double Jigger ships from Presque Isles where he ran two solid races in May and June. He’s working steadily and could be a factor today.
Selections
5 – 6 – 7
The Bet: $5 to win on (#5) Checkpointcharlie
8th Claiming 6 ½ furlongs
4-Quick Appeal has not missed hitting the board since May and has the right stalking style to take advantage of the anticipated contested pace in here. His consistency is illustrated in his 11/3-2-2 record and he has a strong win at the distance to further add to the appeal. 1-Stylish Act went from February to August without getting his picture taken, but has scored back-to-back while closing from far back. If there is a pace meltdown his late-running style will play well with this bunch. 7-Abdel’s Ghost is one of the anticipated dueling speedsters, however he has the advantage of having dueled with much tougher in his last. If class carries him to the front entering the stretch, he will be the one they will have to run down on the wire.
Selections
4 – 1 – 7
The Bet: PASS
9th Allowance 8 ½ furlongs – TURF
10-Bluegrass Bull has the Tomlinson’s to show improvement when moving to the turf and stretching out. The fact that he’s not been long or on grass, and is in an outside post may help boost his price in here. But handicappers who are sharp will notice that trainer David Fawkes scores 21% with first-time turf runners, AND has an exceptional $5.86 ROI for every $2 bet on these kinds of runners. Daniel Centeno is a solid rider – looks like a nice pick at a fair price. The other runner with a pedigree for turf is 11-Raging Sea. The barn’s numbers are not as solid, but his 20/1 morning line is very appealing. 3-And I Like It Too is the lone 2-year-old who will enter the gate this afternoon with A WIN ON THE TURF. Could it be that simple? A favorite adage of mine is: “Turf winners win turf races.” If he wins and pays double digits I will NOT be happy!
Selections
10 – 11 – 3
The Bet: $10 to win on (#10) Bluegrass Bull
10th Maiden Special 5 ½ furlongs
2-Cajun Breeze is the “BEST” of the Day! He pressed a runaway maiden winner in his debut before finishing third. But what most handicappers may miss is that though he appears a well-beaten third, the fact of the matter is that the winner was 8 clear and Cajun was a neck from 2nd while 2 clear of 4th. And to add to the appeal, that maiden winner was High Level Jeff, who scored under wraps on Thursday’s card at 1-5. That day Cajun also was forced to lose ground as he started in the outside post position, 8. A better draw sees Cajun come right back to win here. Today’s Best! Another runner from that race is 7-Vodka Stone Sour who looks to make up those two lengths, as he was the 4th place horse in Cajun’s debut. Perhaps the addition of blinkers helps today. 1-Bud White was an even fourth in his debut, but what might get lost in the shuffle is the fact that he broke tenth that day. If able to avoid a similar poor start from the rail today he could make some noise.
Selections
2 – 7 – 1
The Bet: $20 to win on (#2) Cajun Breeze
TODAY’S BEST
11th AOC 5 furlongs – TURF
2-Don’t Say No earned a 93 Beyer when winning on the turf here this summer. Off that effort he was sent to Saratoga where he ran into Breeders’ Cup Turf runner Bridgetown
Selections
2 – 7 – 10
The Bet: $10 to win on (#2) Don’t Say No
12th Claiming 7 furlongs
3-Crown Glory drops from a $10K tag for today’s $6.25 tag after enduring a wide trip at this unique distance. That 5th place finish was his first loss at today’s 7 panels; winners at this distance typically have previously shown ability to win at the distance. In his three previous sprints before that last he had won all three! Closes the program at a fair price based on his 6/1 morning line. 5-Laughing Matters gets a fresh start with a new barn today. He is the ONLY RUNNER who has EVER set sail on the lead, and that would give him a great advantage. The fact he has NOT gone to the front in the recent past, and that the barn is a lowly 0 for 17 with first time acquisitions makes it hard to put him on top today in spite of the pace advantage. 8-Poetic Princess is 3 for 5 at today’s distance, and has been in solid form since July with two wins, a second and a third in six starts. The outside post may give him a nice stalking position heading into the far turn.
Selections
3 – 5 – 8
The Bet: $5 to win on (#3) Crown Glory
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