Week Two Results

Week 2 was a much better week - all the way around, and especially the last two days.  I am particularly pleased with my handicapping on those races I invest in.....my selection percentages are consistent with the past six years of handicapping......

But, I'm faced with a dilemma of sorts in the "competition" to see who can be the "better handicapper."  Mike Welsch, who is the Calder analyst is on assignment for the Daily Racing Form to report on the workouts of the Breeders' Cup horses at Churchill Downs.....I get that.  But he didn't (or wasn't required to) make any selections for the week.  HEY....I have a full time job besides handicapping, AND I am working on a Breeders' Cup Project that I'd wager takes up nearly the same amount of my time.....YET I STILL MADE selections for the week - and watched and logged the results!

So what do I do - should I count Mike's week as an 0-for week, he missed them all?  Should I go strictly on percentages?  I have to continue my handicapping and match his stats even though I am required to pick an additional 40 races?  Such a dilemma!

So, as you look below, bear in mind that Mike's stats reflect a kind of combination until I figure it out.

Day 8 Results: Sunday October 31

HORRAY!
Not only did I win for the day, AGAIN, but I cashed on my "BEST" of the Day!  It's about time.  For the day I also had three scratches and pulled in a longshot winner in a non-investment race.


Started off 4th, 2nd, 5th, and 6th before my first scratch in the 5th.  In the 6th race I had #4 My Friend Rosasario.  Not saying I would have bet on him had I been there, but I would have been tempted.  Today's 6th was at 5 1/2 furlongs.  My Friend Rossario was obviously running at his favorite distance as he was 10/3-1-1 at the distance.  But what drew my attention was that he had not run this distance since last winter at Tampa - where he won at 28/1.  Today he was 6/1 and won in a photo finish, flying at the end!

My pick scratched in the 7th and then 3rd in the 8th.  It all came down to the 9th, my last betting race, and the "BEST" of the Day!

Not only had #1 She's Hot Hot won three in a row, but she'd done them all in front-running fashion.....and most importantly she found herself in a race where she was the LONE SPEED.  I liked the fact that she'd won going away in all three victories, and I liked the fact that her Beyers were improving.  The only question was the extra half furlong as today's race was at 6 1/2 furlongs....farther she'd ever been.

She was clear on an easy lead all the way into the stretch, and opened up by two lengths.  But at the furlong pole you could tell she was running out of gas and the closers were picking up momentum.  But it looked to me like she'd hold on, and she did!

With the win here, collecting $54, (I ran 3rd with a late running closer in the finale, a non-betting race) I was a profitable winner on the day!



Sunday October 31 Selections

12:25    1^st         Claiming nw3L             6 ½ furlongs                                                                                                   

2-Lance’s Song seems pretty obvious as you look at the past performances, yet he’s 6/1 on the morning line.  Drops from open company to restricted company and has been competitive against $10K types – above today’s cellar dwellers.  Gets top rider Luis Saez.  6-Enormiso is lightly raced and may have just figured out this racing thing.  After spending the first six races wandering around the track he suddenly woke up and was a just miss second.  Then he broke his maiden, and in his last came right back to score decisively in 2L competition.  Takes the next logical step today.  7-Well Tanned Prez woke up three back with a decisive maiden score, and like Enormiso followed that up with a decisive win against 2L company.  In his last he showed early speed vs. $10K types, then stopped.  Drops back down to the bottom and could threaten here. 

Selections

2 – 6 – 7

The Bet:  $5 to win on (#2) Lance’s Song

12:53    2^nd        Maiden Claiming          6 furlongs                                                                                                       

2-Universal Soul debuted for this $40K level and was a good second.  His next two were in MSW company without any kind of ability.  Back down for a tag should do the trick.  7-Chagu Mio debuted for a $32K tag and was a nice 2^nd.  Up a notch today shouldn’t pose much of a problem, and he is on the contender list as well.  3-D Dream gets top jock Manny Cruz, but debuts for a less than successful FTS outfit.  Works aren’t special, but I suspect you don’t have to be much to win here.

Selections

2 – 7 – 3

The Bet:  PASS

1:17      3^rd        Claiming nw2L             6 ½ furlongs                                                                                                    

Much like the opener, this one looks like an obvious choice….except this time the selection is the morning line favorite in the field:  2-Wild Rate.  He’s run three straight 2L sprints against tougher and was very competitive.  Draw a line through the route experiments and you’ll see why he’s the likely chalk with Cruz up.  6-Givemethirtydays is back in just 8 days after running evenly against better going two turns.  The drop in class might be the impetus for a victory.  8-Smart Cole ran back to back solid races three back and two back before throwing in a real clunker in his last.  A return to the previous form and he’s got a chance.

Selections

2 – 6 – 8

The Bet:  $10 to win on (#2) Wild Rate

1:43      4^th        Claiming nw2L             1 mile/70 yards                                                                                                

8-Puchador is lightly raced with a record of 7/1-1-2 (compared to the rest of the field’s 9 combined for 220 – YIKES!).  That statistic in and of itself makes him a contender.  However what draws my attention is when you examine his races more closely you will see that he has sprinted four times, without any success at all.  He tried turf in his last against $16K competition;  his other two races were the lone two dirt routes….a solid second and a win!  The drop in class and return to his best distance marks him the winner!  3-The Cat Rules is 1 for 13, but he is frequently around the winners in his races.  You could make a case for his dismal finish in his last in that he was making his first start since March.  With Luis Saez onboard he’ll be asked for his best today.  7-Mandate to Run is the likely pacesetter, and he could get brave on the front end.  It’s disconcerting however that he set the pace to the stretch in his last, then faded to last beaten over 27 lengths with the comment “pulled up.”  And then no works since?  Ouch.

Selections

8 – 3 – 7

The Bet:  $5 to win on (#8) Puchador

2:11      5^th        Maiden Special            5 furlongs – TURF                                                                                           

Half the field is making their debut and nine of the ten have never tried the grass.  CHAOS ALERT!  5-Fighting Jo Jo represents our best hope in picking a winner based on the evidence in a race like this – no past performances to guide us we are left with human connections; and is there ANYONE better to rely on than the team of owner Frank Calabrese and trainer Nick Canani?  Jo Jo has two synthetic outings which may provide a clue as to her turf ability – a pace setting 4^th in her debut and a pace setting second at 6 ½ furlongs.  Trainer stats:  33% fresh, 50% ($3.96 ROI) with first turf, 28% with turf sprinters, and 40% overall with turf runners!  That is all good enough to inspire some confidence!  The best-bred, by Tomlinson numbers, for the grass would be 6-Smurf City who debuted at one mile on the grass in July.  She stalked the pace to half mile pole, forged to the lead and then understandably gave way.  Maybe in a sprint she’ll last to the wire and get her photo taken.  4-Catch the Beat has all the right Tomlinsons to say she’ll like the surface – maybe if the top two don’t fire she’ll make an impression.

Selections

5 – 6 – 4

The Bet:  $5 to win on (#5) Fighting Jo Jo

2:37      6^th        Claiming                      5 ½ furlongs                                                                                                    

4-My Friend Rosario sports a solid 10/3-1-1 record at the distance.  Her last try at the distance was a stalk and finish win at Tampa at 28/1!  She has not seen this distance since and could make an impression today if ready;  her bullet work says she is ready for a big effort here.  5-Marikitten is the 9/5 favorite coming out of the powerful stable of Canani and Calabrese.  But I am willing to go against here (HERESY!) as her last was the first off the claim, the deadly move for this team, and she was only third at 1-2.  A layoff and a move to real dirt provides too many questions for me in this one.  Sometimes you just have to take a stand against them, they can’t win them all…..can they?  1a-Cara’s Song is a very likely winner based on her “Horse-for-the-Course” status – a 7 time winner here at Calder, and sporting a 7/4-0-1 record at the distance.  I do not care for her entry-mate and the price looks short for a likely favorite.

Selections

4 – 5 – 1a

The Bet:  PASS

3:02      7^th        Claiming                      8 furlongs                                                                                                       

4-Smashing Thru looks to clear the field with the short run to the first turn, and with little other pace in the field and the most probable winner lagging behind he could get very brave at a very nice price.  Nothing like LONE SPEED to steal the show, especially in the lower claiming levels where inconsistency rules!  Where’s the wire!!!!  11-Cove Star is the one of the few winners at the distance, and in fact has an admirable 11/3-2-1 record at the distance.  However he’s marooned in post 11 and that’s a lot to overcome.  But if the top one gives up the ghost in the end, and none of the others in here have a win or are dropping significantly in class he may overcome the post.  6-Briney Lad has four wins at the distance and has stalked the pace to score before.  Seems unlikely on the step up in class, after tossing in the towel chasing the anticipated pace he’ll see today when first off the claim.  But, hey, you never know…..

Selections

4 – 11 – 6

The Bet:  PASS

3:27      8^th        Allowance                    6 ½ furlongs                                                                                                    

8-Kiernan’s Legacy has won 4 times at Calder, but more importantly has earned a Beyer in the 80s five times.  3-Sure Success has earned three Beyers in the 80s.  The remainder of the field – ZERO Beyers in the 80s.  It appears that this is strictly a two-horse race.  I’m going to side with the multiple Calder winner, Kiernan’s Legacy.  He seems best suited to be able to win this weak allowance event.  It would be no surprise if Sure Success wins, but with a single Calder victory and a rider that is a mere 1 for 24 at the Tropical meet, I don’t have a lot of confidence in his chances.  6-Where’s Sterling is a very interesting proposition.  It’s been well documented in several of my writings about the success of Frank Calabrese with Nick Canani.  Well here is a horse from those connections in this allowance test – no surprise, until you note that this runner has only started twice, and LOST both of them…..so here’s a MAIDEN in allowance company.  And yet, the morning line is a short 5/1.  What do “they” know that I don’t? 

Selections

8 – 3 – 6

The Bet:  PASS

3:53      9^th        AOC                             6 ½ furlongs                                                                                                    

1-She’s Hot Hot has fired back-to-back lifetime Beyer highs while winning both races.  Both of these events were won in wire-to-wire fashion, in spite of breaking near the outside of the field.  Today, though stepping up, She’s Hot Hot finds herself not only on the rail which plays to her front-running style, but in a field lacking ANY PACE!  She’s Hot Hot should be LOOSE ON THE LEAD from the opening bell and is a huge favorite in my mind here.  3-Carphonic won her debut here at Calder a year ago, then followed that with a win in the Joe O’Farrell Stakes.  She took a short break and ran in the Grade 3 Old Hat in early January.  She was well beaten that day and has not been seen since.  She has a stalking style and if she is ready, she is a solid class play.  5-Grazioso was claimed out of a maiden Gulfstream win by Team Calabrese-Canani and in a no-brainer, came right back to score in allowance company.  That was in April….and she has not won since.  Fresh off the layoff, she is a stalker, and if ready could be the winner. 

Selections

1 – 3 – 5

The Bet:  $20 to win on (#1) She’s Hot Hot

4:19      10^th       Maiden Claiming          1 mile / 70 yards                                                                                              

9-Great Bear debuted at the bottom $12.5 level and was a neck away from winning his sprint debut.  He stretches out today and the added distance should play right into his favor.  The outside post might actually help him track an inside leader, and that would provide him with his best chance here.  3-Hear To Me showed some early lick running at seven furlongs before stopping badly.  With no proven speed, he may take off on the lead and could get brave.  2-Wireless Macho takes his first drop to the bottom, and gets top rider Luis Saez.  Those two factors may be enough to put him into the winner’s circle.

Selections

9 – 3 – 2

The Bet:  PASS

Day 7 Results: Saturday October 30

HORRAY!  Finally a good day at the races!  I had three winners, and they were all investment races.  The only "bad" thing was my "BEST" of the day scratched.

My first score came in the 3rd when Ventania was much the best and paid a nice $7.60.  Rated right off the lead and exploded through the turf stretch.

Next winner came in the 9th when Bluegrass Bull was a double-investment horse; went off at 4/1 so I got back over $50!

But the best payoff was in the 12th and final when the finale when Crown Glory went off at a very generous 6/1 and returned over $14!  He was a 7-furlong specialist and should have been one of the favorites.

Go me!

Saturday October 30 Selections

12:25    1^st         Maiden Claiming          7 furlongs                                                                                                      

4-Ulterior Motive ran some big races for Dick Dutrow before being transferred to his new digs here in South Florida.  His last was a good 4^th against better, where he was up on the pace through the first half mile.  The drop today, and a fair price puts him at the top of the selection sheet for the opener.  5-Guiding Spirit came off the shelf and ran a nice third vs. better in his last.  You’d think he’d be one of the leading contenders, but he is listed at 20/1.  Have to think he has a better chance than the morning line favorite, 6-Tasso’s Affair who is a 13 time maiden loser!  True, he finished just in front of Guiding Spirit in his last but I think Tasso has proven what kind of competitive spirit he has.

Selections

4 – 5 – 6

The Bet:  PASS

12:50    2^nd        Claiming nw2L             5 furlongs                                                                                                       

Wow – slim choices in this race for non-winners of two lifetime.  Just to show what we are dealing with, the top two selections on the morning line are 16/1-4-1 and 18/1-5-4!  Hard to have confidence in either of them, so let’s shop for a price in here……. 5-Grand Dazzle is lightly raced – a real plus with these – and curiously has run four solid races (a fourth, three thirds, and his maiden win).  However he has two abysmal finishes, one in his last.  But he bounced back off his previous poor effort, so maybe today; and at 20/1 – he’s worth a flyer.  2-Royal Brat enjoys the “advantage” that he’s never lost at Calder.  True, he’s been beaten at this level and sports a less than inspiring 11/1-1-1 record; however he does draw rider Luis Saez and is 6/1.  8-Liquid Fire is also lightly raced, and like Royal Brat has never lost at Calder.  He ships in from the Midwest and might wake-up here in the sunshine state.

Selections

5 – 2 – 8

The Bet:  PASS

1:14      3^rd        Claiming nw3L             8 ½ furlongs – TURF                                                                                       

Like earlier in the week, in spite of the sunshine throughout the week, we did have a couple of showers, which might mean Calder’s management will take the race off the turf;  let’s assume they don’t….. the field is a combined 6 for 78 on the grass, but three of the six wins belong to our top two selections.  4-Ventania has a 6/2-0-2 record on turf, and that has been accomplished against better competition/class than she will see today.  It’s also of note that in EVERY ONE of her turf efforts, she has never been beaten by 2 lengths or more!  Her Beyers put her at the top of the list, and is a well deserved favorite in here.  9-Shesoffthescale earns similar accolades for her turf accomplishments with a record of consistency:  4/1-1-1.  Her Beyers are lighter however and she has been beaten at this level previously.  8-Tut’s Treasure has run some big races with a couple of Beyers good enough to win this, but her 23/2-8-1 overall record does not inspire any confidence in spite of Eibar Coa’s presence in the saddle.

Selections:

4 – 9 – 8

The Bet:  $5 to win on (#4) Ventania

1:40      4^th        Maiden Claiming          6 furlongs                                                                                                       

5-Without Love debuted in a Maiden Claiming $50K turf sprint at Arlington as part of an 8/5 favored entry for owner Frank Calabrese/trainer Nick Canani.  A troubled trip ruined her chances.  The drop and move to the main trick may be all she needs today.  1-Elusive Laura is an intriguing first time starter from the David Fawkes barn.  The jockey-trainer combo strike at a nice 23% with a $2.03 ROI.  Works are good, and if able to get away cleanly on the rail, she has to be considered.  2-She Has Style is also a beginner, and must be thrown into the mix for trainer Kathleen O’Connell.  Luis Saez has the mount today.

Selections

5 – 1 – 2

The Bet:  PASS

2:05      5^th        Claiming                      8 ½ furlongs – TURF                                                                                       

5-Ice Baby Ice has two solid angles going for him in this conditioned claiming event….first, he is a new shooter to a group of runners who’ve taken turns beating each other; and second, he appears to be the LONE SPEED on the race.  He’s wired turf routers before, and if left alone he could be long gone today.  10-Flyin Trey beat several of these last out by stalking the pace from an outside post….hmmm, post 10 – a repeat of his last, a career best Beyer, would make him a repeat winner.  3-Green Bluff check in 2^nd, literally, behind Flyin Trey in that last.  He was “…checked on the turn…” reads the comment.  With a clean trip he might be able to reverse the finish order.

Selections

5 – 10 – 3

The Bet:  $10 to win on (#5) Ice Baby Ice

2:31      6^th        Claiming nw2L             7 furlongs                                                                                                       

3-Miss Muddy Light was a distant trailer in her last, her first try against winners.  A return to the form she showed in her first two races makes this lightly raced miss a contender.  2-Queen of Pearls turned back from a route to 7 panels in mid-August and responded with a double-digit length victory.  That happens to be the ONLY win at 7 furlongs showing in this field.  Today…..she turns back from a turf route!  Uh oh!!!  4-Boogie Woogie has a sorry 16/1-6-4 record, but is first off the claim today for a barn that scores with 29% of those kind.  Maybe…..

Selections

3 – 2 – 4

The Bet:  PASS

2:59      7^th        Claiming nw2L             5 ½ furlongs                                                                                                    

5-Checkpointcharlie is one of only two in here NOT coming off their maiden win.  In his debut ‘Charlie scored stalking the pace.  He came back in his latest to stalk the pace in a starter allowance, and was right there in mid-stretch of a 6 furlong dash before weakening.  The drop in for a first conditioned tag; the experience against winners; and the turnback all spell V-I-C-T-O-R-Y today!  6-It’sapossibility would probably be preferred as the “other” runner who’s faced winners because he’s run faster speed figures.  However he is a “need to lead” type and several of the last-out maiden winners want the front.  Even if they do not beat ‘Possibility to the front, he’ll likely be compromised on the front end.  Of the maiden winners, 7-Double Jigger ships from Presque Isles where he ran two solid races in May and June.  He’s working steadily and could be a factor today.

Selections

5 – 6 – 7

The Bet:  $5 to win on (#5) Checkpointcharlie

3:26      8^th        Claiming                      6 ½ furlongs                                                                                                    

4-Quick Appeal has not missed hitting the board since May and has the right stalking style to take advantage of the anticipated contested pace in here.  His consistency is illustrated in his 11/3-2-2 record and he has a strong win at the distance to further add to the appeal.  1-Stylish Act went from February to August without getting his picture taken, but has scored back-to-back while closing from far back.  If there is a pace meltdown his late-running style will play well with this bunch.  7-Abdel’s Ghost is one of the anticipated dueling speedsters, however he has the advantage of having dueled with much tougher in his last.  If class carries him to the front entering the stretch, he will be the one they will have to run down on the wire.

Selections

4 – 1 – 7

The Bet:  PASS

3:53      9^th        Allowance                    8 ½ furlongs – TURF                                                                                       

10-Bluegrass Bull has the Tomlinson’s to show improvement when moving to the turf and stretching out.  The fact that he’s not been long or on grass, and is in an outside post may help boost his price in here.  But handicappers who are sharp will notice that trainer David Fawkes scores 21% with first-time turf runners, AND has an exceptional $5.86 ROI for every $2 bet on these kinds of runners.  Daniel Centeno is a solid rider – looks like a nice pick at a fair price.  The other runner with a pedigree for turf is 11-Raging Sea.  The barn’s numbers are not as solid, but his 20/1 morning line is very appealing.  3-And I Like It Too is the lone 2-year-old who will enter the gate this afternoon with A WIN ON THE TURF.  Could it be that simple?  A favorite adage of mine is:  “Turf winners win turf races.”  If he wins and pays double digits I will NOT be happy!

Selections

10 – 11 – 3

The Bet:  $10 to win on (#10) Bluegrass Bull

4:19      10^th       Maiden Special            5 ½ furlongs                                                                                                    

2-Cajun Breeze is the “BEST” of the Day!  He pressed a runaway maiden winner in his debut before finishing third.  But what most handicappers may miss is that though he appears a well-beaten third, the fact of the matter is that the winner was 8 clear and Cajun was a neck from 2^nd while 2 clear of 4^th.  And to add to the appeal, that maiden winner was High Level Jeff, who scored under wraps on Thursday’s card at 1-5.  That day Cajun also was forced to lose ground as he started in the outside post position, 8.  A better draw sees Cajun come right back to win here.  Today’s Best!  Another runner from that race is 7-Vodka Stone Sour who looks to make up those two lengths, as he was the 4^th place horse in Cajun’s debut.  Perhaps the addition of blinkers helps today.  1-Bud White was an even fourth in his debut, but what might get lost in the shuffle is the fact that he broke tenth that day.  If able to avoid a similar poor start from the rail today he could make some noise.

Selections

2 – 7 – 1

The Bet:  $20 to win on (#2) Cajun Breeze

TODAY’S BEST

4:45      11^th       AOC                             5 furlongs – TURF                                                                                           

2-Don’t Say No earned a 93 Beyer when winning on the turf here this summer.  Off that effort he was sent to Saratoga where he ran into Breeders’ Cup Turf runner Bridgetown, who subsequently set a course record in a Monmouth stakes effort.  After falling to Bridgetwon “No” went to Monmouth where he fell to multiple stakes winner Hollywood Left.  Laid off after that effort for two weeks he showed up back here at Calder in a turf dash where he was off slowly and checked…yet still ran second that day.  A clean trip with a good conditioning race in him sees him score here.  Veteran 7-Lord Robyn is a multiple stakes winner with a ton of back class.  He can never be counted out as he’s still scoring in turf sprints at this optional claiming level.  10-Dixie Matt has been Don’t Say No’s victim previously, but should there be a hot pace Matt will be the one running best through the final furlong.

Selections

2 – 7 – 10

The Bet:  $10 to win on (#2) Don’t Say No

5:10      12^th       Claiming                      7 furlongs                                                                                                       

3-Crown Glory drops from a $10K tag for today’s $6.25 tag after enduring a wide trip at this unique distance.  That 5^th place finish was his first loss at today’s 7 panels; winners at this distance typically have previously shown ability to win at the distance.  In his three previous sprints before that last he had won all three!  Closes the program at a fair price based on his 6/1 morning line.  5-Laughing Matters gets a fresh start with a new barn today.  He is the ONLY RUNNER who has EVER set sail on the lead, and that would give him a great advantage.  The fact he has NOT gone to the front in the recent past, and that the barn is a lowly 0 for 17 with first time acquisitions makes it hard to put him on top today in spite of the pace advantage.  8-Poetic Princess is 3 for 5 at today’s distance, and has been in solid form since July with two wins, a second and a third in six starts.  The outside post may give him a nice stalking position heading into the far turn.

Selections

3 – 5 – 8

The Bet:  $5 to win on (#3) Crown Glory

Day 6 Results: October 29

FINALLY!  A winning day again!  I only had four selections, but I won with two of them to make money on the day....horray!

In the 3rd I got a great, ground-saving ride to make the front before the wide-rallying closers.  Held off three late runners in a thrilling finish.  In the fifth my second choice beat by top choice - the interesting thing was my second choice went off at over 20-1!



Got my second and final win in the 6th when the dynamic duo of owner Frank Calabrese and trainer Nick Canani struck yet again....short price, but a winner!

Friday October 29 Selections

12:25    1^st         Maiden Claiming          5 furlongs                                                                                                      

7 – Dolphin Key, one of a VERY few in this field NOT to be destroyed in their last effort, is the lone Maiden Special dropper.  Even better he showed good early speed dueling for a half after breaking last.  Early-speed, class drop – especially MSW to MdClm – is a deadly move; even more powerful when in a poor field such as this. 

12 – Flingfreeforkea is a first-time starter and who’s been working slowly, but steadily for his debut.  The bug rider has a $6 ROI when riding for this outfit.  The only other FTS is 11 – Phantastic Jet and that gives him a shot – but the barn is 0 for 30 with first-timers….uh oh.

Selections

7 – 12 – 11

The Bet:  $5 to win on (#7 ) Dolphin Key

12:54    2^nd        Maiden Claiming          6 ½ furlongs                                                                                                    

5 – Bull Dozer hails from the Chad Stewart barn, the same outfit that sent out our top selection in the first.  A different rider for this one, but he also drops from MSW in for the bottom level tag today.  Chance on the drop – even better should Stewart’s charge take the opener.  3 – Hugo Light shows the “early-speed/class drop” angle – but not out of MSW company, simply a class notch higher.  Still early speed at a higher class is a potent angle.  10 – Hot Under Pressure warrants consideration as a first-time starter in a field of proven losers.

Selections

5 – 3 – 10

The Bet:  PASS

1:23      3^rd        Maiden Special            8 furlongs – TURF                                                                                           

9 – Dinahmite Sal has run four Beyers of 73 or better on the turf and looks strong in here with two seconds and two thirds from his last four outings.  He’s in-form and in shape.  Should score today.  2 – Apriority has several Beyers in the 80s and has raced against stakes winners in California.  He’s worked super for his South Florida debut.  The fact he ran so well on the So Cal synthetic would indicate a probable affinity for the grass.  However, Apriority’s lone poor effort came when he actually WAS on the turf.  Would be no surprise, but not as one of the favorites.  The top Tomlinsons for turf and distance in the field go to first-time starter 4 – Carrots.  Solid rider in Centeno, but the barn is 5 for 50 this year and not even hitting double digits for first timers.  Would have to win on talent alone in spite of his trainer’s work.

Selections

9 – 2 – 4

The Bet:  $5 to win on (#9 ) Dinahmite Sal

1:52      4^th        Claiming                      6 furlongs                                                                                                       

6 – Clueless Brook ships from Presque Isle and couldn’t have found a softer spot for her Florida debut.  She meets bottom level conditioned company after facing much tougher open company.  Interesting that the rider is related to the trainer and that they win 17% when teamed up.  Wouldn’t be a surprise today.  4 – She’sfrom Delaware was 6/2-1-1 last season and is a solid 3/1-0-0 this year.  But she fits the conditions in spite of a dominating win fresh last out in his second South Florida start.  The in-form contender.  11 – Irish Gypsy Rose has only been SOMEWHAT competitive once since June ’09, but that was a win two back.  Hard to overlook her local record of 6 wins in 19 starts in spite of her recent form.

Selections

6 – 4 – 11

The Bet:  PASS

2:21      5^th        Maiden Claiming          5 ½ furlongs                                                                                                    

6 – Barry K was 3^rd at 2-5 in his last against $40K types – drops down to $25K today.  The logical choice, but doesn’t look like a positive sign after such a competitive effort to move to the bottom of the selling ranks.  7 – Act of Defiance an interesting first timer from a barn that wins 21% with those kind.  Shows a lot of solid works for today’s debut. 

2 – Sarah’sgotthecode another first timer from a barn that knows how to have them ready first time out.  Near bullet in next to last work may hint at some ability.

Selections

6 – 7 – 2

The Bet:  PASS

2:50      6^th        Claiming nw2L             8 ½ furlongs – TURF                                                                                       

7 – Exclusive Strike is unlikely to be the favorite, and his Beyers appear on the light side compared to the other top contenders…..BUT….today is his first start for the dominant connections of Frank Calabrese-Nick Canani.  They combine to win 34% of the time with horses making their first start for them.  He exits back-to-back solid tries on the tougher NYRA circuit, and BOTH of those races were KEY races!  MANY times these horses run way beyond what their past performances indicate they are capable of.  With jockey Daniel Centeno – their new South Florida “go-to” jock on board (he’s won 50% with an ROI of over $3….how is that possible?), he looks like a solid investment that is “outside the box” and might get us a nice payoff.  5 – Cash Advance has run nearly identical speed figures in his two turf routes.  They were both in Maiden Special company (a close 3^rd and a win).  He’s been trying to get back on grass but has struggled with the weather/Calder management.  A chance on his best if the top one doesn’t fire.  6 – Father Lucey has shown he can compete on the lawn, and in fact he owns the top grass route Beyer (76) when breaking his maiden in the claiming ranks here back in July.

Selections

7 – 5 – 6

The Bet:  $10 to win on (#7 ) Exclusive Strike

3:20      7^th        Maiden Special            5 ½ Furlongs                                                                                                   

Good luck in this one as there are VERY FEW past performance lines to go on and the trainers listed with the first time starters do not have a history of scoring with that kind.  With that in mind……9 – Jill’s Dancer has the most experience, and was 2^nd at 7-5 in her last start.  The previous race she was entered in a stakes race, so SOMEONE thinks she’s got talent, and she does have 3 career runner-up finishes.  Works against her however than NONE of those races appear to have produced a quality runner….a next-out winner.  12 – Broadway Marquee has the outside post and has a single start (six weeks ago) where she showed speed to the half mile pole.  Maybe with experience she can sit the comfortable trip off the speed.  1 – My Other Girl is a rarity…..a runner out of the Marty Wolfson barn (with go-to rider Jermaine Bridgmohan up) that does NOT have statistics to point them out as a contender.  Wolfson’s first timers score at a low 8%.  Though this one does show some quick works….so maybe.  Has to overcome the tough rail draw though.

Selections

9 – 12 – 1

The Bet:  PASS

3:47      8^th        AOC                             6 ½ furlongs                                                                                                    

7 – True Will appears to have fallen into the “perfect storm” of pace scenarios today.  Of her five inside rivals, four of them run their best when on the lead!  True Will is a stalker, first plus!  Her five rivals today collectively have a single win at today’s unique 6 ½ furlongs – Ture Will has TWO wins at the distance!  Second plus.  Her outside post gives her the best possible starting slot to watch the speed unfold inside her!  Third plus.  It is a short field, so the outside post does not compromise her trip with a wide journey!  Fourth plus.  Does she need any more advantages?  Well, she’s run at this AOC $16K level three previous times – and WON ALL THREE, two of which were her wins at today’s distance.  Looks like a strong selection.  6 – Capitalism has shown some ratability and did win on the NYRA circuit previously.  However her last start was in Boston at Suffolk Downs for the same connections that last week appeared to have a strong contender shipping down – and that one failed to hit the board.  In spite of the bullet works, I’ll pass.  4 – Aroma de Mujer is the only other runner with a win at the distance – at this level.  She also has scored at the AOC nw2x level for $25K (today is a nw1x $16K).  If she were able to outbreak the other front-runners, and set sail on a clear lead she would be a strong contender.

Selections

7 – 6 – 4

The Bet:  $10 to win on (#7 ) True Will

4:15      9^th        Claiming nw2L             5 ½ furlongs – TURF                                                                                       

7 – Trippindowndahiway closed solidly in turf sprint debut, and has since compiled a solid record.  She goes first off the claim today – a 27% winning angle for this barn – and gets top turf rider Eibar Coa.  The J-T combo clicks at a solid 22% and the barn has all positive stats on the appropriate moves for today’s heat.  3 – Glass of Water is the primary threat with a solid 3/1-1-1 record sprinting on the green.  She set the pace with a quick :21.4 opening quarter in her win but settled for 2^nd and 3^rd when chasing the speed of insane :20.4 fractions in both her subsequent turf sprints.  She stretched out, and was a good 2^nd at a mile on the turf last out, so she has the foundation to last if able to clear.  6 – Angel’s Cove has the most turf experience (8 starts on the lawn) and has the advantage of NEVER having raced for a conditioned claiming price.  That is something the top two cannot say.

Selections

7 – 3 – 6

The Bet:  PASS

4:40      10^th       AOC                             7 furlongs                                                                                                       

The feature today is a stakes-quality race and should be a great race………….to watch!  Of the six runners, four have tried the tricky distance of 7 furlongs, and not won.  One has won, but that was in ’09 and was her maiden win, and the other two have not tried the distance.  Three are making their initial starts for new owners/trainers.  AND, none of the fillies or mares have shown the desire to run on the front end – so the pace picture is cloudy.  So, it looks like a chaos result to me.  1 – Diva d’Oro is first off the claim for Marty Wolfson, and anything he sends out has to taken seriously.  With no front-runner in the race, Diva may inherit the lead because she DOES and HAS run on the lead….when going two turns.  With no sprint speed to challenge her, she may find that her natural route pace speed is good enough to take the lead in here.  If that is the case and she coasts on an early and easy lead, she would be LONG gone.  5 – North Rodeo has raced in solid company on the So Cal circuit; has won at Churchill Downs; and has run most recently at Saratoga.  If she handles the Calder surface and heat she has probably seen much better.  4 – One Proud Lady is the one filly who HAS won at the distance.  She won stalking the pace that day and drew off by over 12 lengths.  Any kind of effort like that would give her a good chance.

Selections

1 – 5 – 4

The Bet:  PASS

5:08      11^th       Maiden Claiming          8 furlongs                                                                                                       

WOW – 11 of these 2-year-old fillies lost their last race by a COMBINED 216 lengths, an average of nearly 20 lengths each!  Good luck with this one if the top one doesn’t fire!  10 – Dream Appeal lost a photo sprinting her last, losing by a mere neck.  In this company, that speaks volumes if she can handle the distance.  2 – Dylexi ran second in her last, though she was beaten “only” seven lengths.  To be fair, she was also five clear of the show horse.  Oh, might have something here you think……her previous two starts, she was beaten a combined 36 ¼ lengths – oh…albeit against better.  Maybe.  Finally, what to do with 4 – Lazy Dynamite?  Two back she set the pace going two turns before yielding late to finish a well beaten third.  The winner was clear by 7, the place clear by 5, and she was clear of the 4^th place finisher by about a length.  She returned last out at this class level and was 7/5.  Fifth beaten 14 lengths despite having the rail to flaunt her speed – which she never used. 

Selections

10 – 2 – 4

The Bet:  PASS