Thursday November 18
1st Claiming 8 furlongs
Cove Star consistently runs well at this distance and at this class level. The drop from $8K suits him today. Baystreet Bully may find himself on a lonesome lead in a fairly paceless race. He’s won on the lead, and with the inside post he could easily get loose here. To Heir Is Human comes off his best ever, at the non-winners of 3 Lifetime level. He may be ready to step-up under Luis Saez today.
Selections
Cove Star – Baystreet Bully – To Heir Is Human
The Bet: PASS
2nd Starter Allowance 5 ½ furlongs
Limbo Dancer fired a bullet to prep off the layoff for this. He has the rail, he has front-running speed, and he drops from open allowance company. He should take advantage of the inside path and take these on a merry chase to the finish line! No More Yogi’s also wants the lead, but is in the far outside post – if he can stalk the lead he has to be considered a win contender today. Three Ways Home showed a new wrinkle by stalking the pace and taking over late to win in his last. If he can work out the trip from post two he would be a contender if the top two duel each other into submission.
Selections
Limbo Dancer – No More Yogi’s – Three Ways Home
The Bet: $5 to win on Limbo Dancer
3rd Claiming nw2L 8 furlongs – TURF
Mr. Rico has run his best races when permitted by Calder management to actually run the turf race on the turf! Forecasts call for a slight chance of light showers Tuesday, so it’s anybody’s guess if this one will go on the turf, but if it does, Mr. Rico is a solid favorite on the drop in class. Father Lucey has run two big numbers on the grass, and the last was in spite of a poor start. With a clean break and a smooth trip under Luis Saez, he’d be the most logical contender to upset the favorite. Exuberant Song is an interesting proposition….coming off a maiden win sprinting on the dirt, he is bred all over for two-turns on the grass. Having never FAILED at a 2L condition – something all his rivals have done – he might score at a big price.
Selections
Mr. Rico – Father Lucey – Exuberant Song
The Bet: $10 to win on Mr. Rico – TURF ONLY!
4th Maiden Claiming 8 furlongs
Conway Candy could score a mild upset here for trainer David Fawkes. His first two starts were on the grass, and though he would appear to be bred for the turf, but those efforts may show that his breeding does not match his talent or liking for the surface. He could score on the surface switch at a fair price. I’m willing to go against the probable favorite in here, Congratulator. He’s trained by Marty Wolfson and ridden by go-to jockey Jermaine Bridmohan, and Wolfson is a 19% winner with second time starters. But Congratular was terrible in his debut versus Maiden Specials – granted a key race to a next-out repeat winner – but the 7th beaten 22 lengths coupled with an immediate drop for a tag in just his second start tells me this is a fire sale, not a move to pick up the win…..especially at a short price. Lookoutforfreddy stretches out for his second start and drops in class. Under Manny Cruz with an inside post, and with a short run to the first turn he may set sail on the lead and try to wire the field.
Selections
The Bet: PASS
5th Claiming nw3L 6 furlongs
Cover Price is lightly raced, and has always faced better company than these. Three back he changed hands and responded with back-to-back sprint wins. In his last his connections experimented with a turf route; after pressing the pace through six furlongs he gave way. Today he turns back to a sprint and drops to the bottom of the conditioned claiming ladder. Looks like a winning move. My Tiger Man is even more lightly raced, and he too changed hands three races back. However for his new connections he dropped from allowance company into restricted $6K company and in three straight tries at that level he was well-beaten twice, sandwiched around an even third place effort. He has not been nearly as sharp, but perhaps the nw3L company will wake him up. Five Afternoons has hit the board in 11 of 14 tries, and gets a SIGNIFICANT rider change today. He has not been out since August, but has four works to build some foundation.
Selections
Cover Price – My Tiger Man – Five Afternoons
The Bet: PASS
6th Allowance 8 ½ furlongs – TURF
Hannah’s Princess was claimed out of a narrow turf loss vs. 2L company four races back. He responded with a new lifetime Beyer and dominated a higher level 2L off-the-turf event. He was then moved up into starter allowance company on the turf and again recorded a new lifetime high – nearly 10 points better – in a photo finish loss. He returned in his last trying for a turf race, but like so many here at Calder it was moved to the main track. Still he was second behind a runaway winner, but SIX clear of the show horse, AND recorded a new lifetime dirt high. If allowed to be run on the grass I look for him to pull the mild upset over the two most likely betting favorites. The first of those will be Friendly Selection who was a photo-finish loser when first off the claim for Frank Calabrese and Nick Canani at Arlington Arlington Florida
Selections
Hannah’s Princess – Friendly Selection – Cover Story
The Bet: $5 to win on Hannah’s Princess
7th Maiden Claiming 5 ½ furlongs
Amadorable is a first-timer who goes for a barn that doesn’t regularly win with that type, but what appeals here is that though the barn wins a sub-par 13%, the ROI is an inflated $6.41 for every $2 bet. And the rider wins at an ROI of $4.33 for every $2 bet. In a wide-open race, those stats are as good as any for picking a winner. Zaniah showed good speed for a half, but vs. lesser competition. Witch’s Orchard broke from the far outside and was beaten less than three lengths at this level in his last, his debut.
Selections
Amadorable – Zaniah – Witch’s Orchard
The Bet: PASS
8th AOC 5 furlongs – TURF
Dixie Matt is a 7-time turf winner who comes from far back when sprinting. There appears to be an abundance of pace today to set up his late run; having paired 85 Beyers in his last two, he may be sitting on a new career high with this favorable pace scenario today. Hellen’s Choice will probably be popular at the windows, but a closer look at his record indicates he’ll be highly overbet. After starting his career 0 for 4, never closer than 7 ½ lengths to the winner, he wired a MSW field in his turf-sprint debut, earning a career Beyer of 83. He came right back and beat first-level allowance company sprinting on the turf, earning a similar figure of 84. That was last December! He ran in two stakes races and then an allowance at Gulfstream in February, and has been off since. He has yet to really prove his talent, and the LONG layoff has to make you wonder if he’s ready for the intense early pressure he’ll get today from in-form contenders. Not at a short price for me! Wicked Woman of Ny has the rail and is ultra-quick. She routinely is on the pace with half-mile splits of :44 and change. She should be on or contesting the fast early pace, and projecting her ground-saving trip she will probably be the one to reel in at the 16th pole.
Selections
Dixie Matt – Hellen’s Choice – Wicked Woman of Ny
The Bet: $5 to win on Dixie Matt
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