After a great weekend in Louisville, where I hit 6 of 13 stakes races, netted $50 profit AND won with more selections than 25 National Daily Racing Form Handicappers, it's time to get back to handicapping on the local scene......
Here are the selections for Saturday November 13 on the Florida Million Card:
1st Maiden Special 5 furlongs - TURF
Journey to Nowhere is a first-time starter for trainer Bennie Stutts, who is having a fine year (28% overall wins). The colt gets top turf rider Jose Lezcano on board, and Stutts gets 40% winners with first-timers. He does well with turf sprinters, and the two-year-old prospect has been working steadily at Calder since early September. Dahy showed speed for a half in his debut on the main track under an apprentice jock. Today he switches to top rider Luis Saez and gets on the grass for which he is strongly bred. His trainer, Eddie Plesa, Jr. scores 20% with second-time starters; and Saez is a 21% rider for the barn. War for Gus has great turf bloodlines and gets Breeders’ Cup Sprint winning rider Eibar Coa today. Gus comes off a solid 2nd on the main track. If able to overcome the outside post he can make some noise here.
Selections
Journey to Nowhere – Dahy – War for Gus
The Bet: PASS
2nd Claiming nw2L 7 furlongs
Two Saints is one of only two entries in here who has NOT lost double digit races (and most of those number over 20 per horse…..wow!). He has never raced at this low of a level, though he has been beaten for a 2L tag six times. He was claimed three back for $10K and run back in two $16K races – one a six furlong sprint, where he was a good third, and his last a one-mile turf heat, where he showed good speed for a half. The drop, the turn-back, the turf to dirt move, and the fact he is not a proven loser makes him the one to beat in here. Gorlock is the “other” non-double-digit loser, but he comes off a maiden win at the bottom level, and has a 10-pound apprentice on board. However, he has nearly paired Beyers (55-57) in his last two, so he may be ready for another step forward. Wild Rate has top rider Manny Cruz, and is the lone runner to have a win at today’s 7 panel distance. He’s a late runner, so he should be the one running best late.
Selections
Two Saints – Gorlock – Wild Rate
The Bet: PASS
3rd Claiming nw2L 5 ½ furlongs
Itain’tover has powerful angles working in his favor, and unfortunately they are on display for even the basic handicappers: (1) he goes first-time for the Marty Wolfson barn, a 30% angle; (2) go-rider Jermaine Bridgmohan is up today, that is also a 30% angle; (3) all THREE of his Beyer speed figures would be the lifetime best of EVERY runner in the field, save one race by one runner; (4) he comes off a layoff but sports a bullet best of 34 work for today; and (5) his pace figures put him on an easy lead to wire this field, especially at this short distance. BIG TIME. Red Jag has run three races and two of them not only wouldn’t beat the top choice, but wouldn’t beat most of the other runners in here. However his maiden win two pack was a sparkling 78 – and that would be good enough to EDGE the top one IF he ran his worst race to date. It should also be noted that today is his first start in 2L competition, and for a tag. Hmmm, interesting. Sculptor is an interesting long-shot in that twice, albeit on the turf, he has run pace figures that would make a front-end duel suicidal for any of the other runners; if left alone he could spring the upset.
Selections
Itain’tover – Red Jag – Sculptor
The Bet: $15 to win on Itain’tover
4th Aurthur Appleton Stakes 8 ½ furlongs – TURF
Decisive Moment has pressed the pace in back to back races, the last his first two-turn try in the In Reality Stakes, and in both he made the lead in the stretch only to falter late. What’s interesting is that (a) he’s bred up and down for the turf, and today marks his turf debut, and (b) he gets blinkers off today. A rider change and a best of SEVENTY bullet less than a week ago should put him on the lead today and LONG gone! And I Like It Too has thrown in back-to-back clunkers. But if you open the window to three back, that turf effort would be competitive here today. Again a rider switch tells me the connections think he has a chance with different handling. How good is Racing Aptitude? After not making an impression in his first three starts he was a dominant turf winner with a big number in his last. Perhaps he has been waiting for turf all along, and his turf debut – his last – can be forgiven with the trouble comment, “..Steadied, wide…” in that race.
Selections
Decisive Moment – And I Like It Too – Racing Aptitude
The Bet: $5 to win on Decisive Moment
5th Joe O’Farrell Juvenile Fillies 7 furlongs
Lily’s Hope is the perfect example of a KEY RACE play – assuming she wins here. In her latest she ran in the My Dear Girl of the Florida Stallion Stakes. She was flying at the finish and was clear of the field by daylight, 5 lengths. The only problem is she was also eight lengths back of Awesome Feather. And in case you’re not a fan of horse racing, Awesome Feather exited that race to win the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies! Does it get any better than this? The turn back to an elongated sprint should see her mowing them down late. Cristal Jak is the “X” factor in here. If you go two back or three back, her pace setting style and pace figures would put her on or stalking the pace. And her next-to-last race was a pace-setting effort in the FSS Susan’s Girl; she wired the field that day by a clear 8 ¾ lengths….unless you count the fact that like Lily’s Hope last race, Awesome Feather was four clear of Cristal Jak! What’s worrisome however is that Cristal Jak exited that solid stakes effort to take on non-winners of one allowance foes and was a very badly beaten 5th at 2/5. Laid off since then you have to wonder which filly shows up here? Come A Callin’ ships in from Keeneland via Saratoga Kentucky
Selections
Lily’s Hope – Cristal Jak – Come A Callin’
The Bet: $10 to win on Lily’s Hope
6th Bonnie Heath Turf Cup 9 furlongs – TURF
Bim Bam should get a perfect trip today to take down the Bonnie Heath. Though edged last time out at this distance by one of his rivals today, the race appears to have little speed. Mean Sax is no threat to win, but will probably set sail on the lead and set a moderate pace. With the other five runners being confirmed finishers, that should leave Bim Bam sitting in the catbird’s seat throughout the race as they dawdle along. Hitting the far turn Bim Bam opens up and has plenty left, thanks to the soft pace, to win the race. Tannersville is the rival who was just up in time to edge Bim Bam in the last; today I see the pace being much softer and Tannersville will have his work cut out for him. Make no mistake, his record of 5/4-0-1 on grass and his back-to-back 96 turf Beyers will make him a formidable opponent; but as is often stated around the race track, “Pace makes the race!” Mean Sax will probably go overlooked in the wagering, but he has 4 wins over the Calder sod and will very likely take the lead at the start. I can see him slowing the pace down to a crawl and then winning the sprint for home.
Selections
Bim Bam – Tannersville – Mean Sax
The Bet: $10 to win on Bim Bam
7th Jack Dudley Sprint Handicap 6 furlongs
In what looks to be a real toss-up here we’ll side with a longshot, Hear Ye Hear Ye. Only a three-year-old, Hear Ye Hear Ye may have some improvement in him, and could find himself in the winner’s circle if able to cycle back to his better races of last winter. With a little creativity I can excuse his last six races/losses. A year ago he won a state-bred stakes here at Calder from just off the pace at odds of 20/1. He then went to Tampa and led at the top of the stretch before fading on that deep surface (excuse #1); his next two were solid 4th place finishes in a pair of Grade 2 races (excuse #2 and #3); back to Tampa where a turf route/stakes attempt didn’t go well (excuse #4); and then to Churchill for a one-turn mile on a muddy track in the Grade 3 Derby Trial (excuse #5); off from April to Oct 30 when he ran in a five furlong turf sprint, breaking slowly (excuse #6). Today he gets back to the main track, a distance that suits him, and at a more suitable level. UPSET ALERT! You Lucky Mann is the morning line favorite at 5/2, and that in itself should tell you something – why? Because since October 10, 2009 You Lucky Mann has run in ONE race….an allowance dash at five furlongs here in September – that was scheduled for turf, but came off the grass. While he does have a definite affinity for the Calder track (9/5-2-2), his works are far short from spectacular. Not at a short price for me thanks. Tackleberry has the rail and likes to be on or near the pace. I can see him clearing early and playing catch-me-if-you-can. Can he hold on here? Not willing to count on it.
Selections
Hear Ye Hear Ye – You Lucky Mann –Tackleberry
The Bet: $5 to win on Hear Ye Hear Ye
8th Jack Price Juvenile 7 furlongs
Gourmet Dinner will undoubtedly be a short priced favorite, but we may get a fair price (4/5?) on him today based on his loss last time out. In that race, his first try at two turns, he just didn’t look comfortable to me. By the time he began his rally he looked to have too much to do on a day that was not his best. Any of his three previous starts – all wins – would give him a solid chance today. His ability to come from off the pace should serve him well today. Ribo Bobo comes off a solid second going a one-turn mile at Churchill in the Grade 3 Iroquois. If able to put together that kind of effort today, he’s a solid threat who should get first jump on the leaders, and will be the one Gourmet Dinner will need to reel in late. Uno Caliente comes out of a wire-to-wire performance in the Birdonthewire Stakes and should be flying on the front end. His tendency to run good race/bad race puts him in a “bad race mode” today, and he looks to have pressure today. But if left alone on an easy lead…….
Selections
Gourmet Dinner – Ribo Bobo – Uno Caliente
The Bet: $15 to win on Gourmet Dinner
9th John Franks Juvenile Turf 8 ½ furlongs – TURF
Litigating gets the call to post the mild upset. Out of the Bill Mott barn and being ridden by Rajiv Maragh today, Litigating is lightly raced and bred to get today’s distance on the turf. She began her career in a turf sprint, falling to an eventual stakes winner; off a break she ran a distance of ground on the Saratoga turf where she was in the thick of it to the head of the lane when blown down by super filly Winter Memories (who went off as the well deserved favorite in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Filly Turf). In her last race she broke from post 11 and mowed them down late on the synthetic Keeneland surface. Since that race she’s been training at Payson Park
Selections
Litigating – Holidaysatthefarm – Blue Eyed Sweetie
The Bet: Pass
10th Elmer Hueback Distaff Mile H’Cap 8 ½ furlongs
Doesn’t it seem odd that the Distaff Mile is NOT run at a mile? Hmmmm, what’s up with that? Amazing looks to be sitting on a big race to me, even if it’s not at a mile! Claimed three back for a whopping $75K by Marty Wolfson for Farnsworth Farms, this gal immediately ran a huge race and earned a big number to win. She was second last out in a stakes race locally while nearly pairing her previous number. Two big Beyers since being claimed, it appears she takes a big step forward today to win at a fair price. Trip for A.J. has run some big numbers also, but they’ve come when loose on the lead, and that does NOT appear to be the case today. She is the inside speed and she will try to steal it; if left alone she will be a threat to run another big one. Successful Song had won back-to-back main track starts off a freshening before faltering in the grassy Calder Oaks last out. The return to the main should help her chances to rebound with a better effort.
Selectons
Amazing – Trip for A.J. – Successful Song
The Bet: $10 to win on Amazing
11th Carl G. Rose Handicap 9 furlongs
TODAY’S BEST BET:
Duke of Mischief has run in nothing but big stakes races since May 2009 when he was a nearly 12 length winner HERE in allowance company. He is a multiple graded stakes winner this year and stands out over this field on class. Under Eibar Coa he should get a good stalking trip before pouncing on the turn and drawing off handily. His bullet work, best of seventy-three a week ago, signals everyone that he is seriously ready today. Birdrun appears to be a late-developing four year old for Bill Mott. Coming off back-to-back big efforts in New York
Selections
Duke of Mischief – Birdrun – Riversrunrlyee
The Bet – Today’s BEST: $50 to win on Duke of Mischief
12th Maiden Claiming 6 furlongs
It appears owner Frank Calabrese has a new South Florida trainer, Luis Ramirez. He has both halves of an entry today, and if they run like any other Calabrese Entry either of them look dangerous. With Daniel Centeno named on both, likely one will go. Both Without Love and Dreaming of Rose ship from Maiden Special debuts in Chicago for today’s maiden claimer here in South Florida . I’ll side with which ever half of the entry goes today. The inside group are trained by trainers who are a combined 1 for 89 with first time starters – scratch to all of those! Prize Informant ran a good second in her last, and has a bullet work for today. But that last was for a tag here, and was her first real competitive effort of her career. Bonafide Cat ran a “better-than-it-looks” 4th in her debut and goes for a barn that has scored with second time starters. Maybe.
Selections
Without Love / Dreaming of Rose – Prize Informant – Bonafide Cat
The Bet: PASS
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