Saturday November 20
1st Maiden Claiming 5 ½ Furlongs
Louisiana Warrior gets the edge in here because of his ability to pass horses after stalking the pace. Last summer in his first two races he showed some early speed vs. a notch better. He was off from July to November and dropped to this bottom level where he stalked the pace and drove to the lead at the stretch call before giving way. With a likely pace duel developing, his outside post and ability to pass horses should give him the opportunity to win. Putitbacklisa is one of two pace rivals, the other being to her immediate outside. I give the pace advantage to her because (a) she was able to set the pace in spite of breaking from post 9 in both her previous starts; and (b) because her internal pace time is a couple lengths quicker than her rival outside. If allowed to be loose on the lead she could be dangerous. D’Screamer is that next-door pace rival. In his first try, also off a break, at this level he was clear by open lengths before surrendering badly. But, like Putitbacklisa, if able to clear early, she could be dangerous.
Selections
The Bet: PASS
2nd Maiden Special 9 furlongs – TURF
Carrots has run as well as any of his rivals in here, but has the advantage that his effort was in his debut – going two turns, on the grass in a debut is a difficult task for a young colt, and he put in a solid late-running effort. He has changed barns since then, and adds blinkers. Both of these factors indicate to me he will be closer to the pace. He owns the best Tomlinson’s in the field not only for grass, but also for this extended distance. It would be no surprise if morning line favorite Macarthur Causeway wins today. He stretches out off a solid one-mile main track effort off the shelf. But if you look two back he was a good second around two turns on the turf. It is a bit bothersome to me that he lost ground in the stretch that day at 8 ½ furlongs, and today he has to carry is effort an ADDITIONAL ½ furlong. Robynhood appears to be the inside pace of this field, where there isn’t an apparent front-runner. If Manny Cruz can take him to the front and slow the fractions down he’d have a good chance to wire the field.
Selections
Carrots – Macarthur Causeway – Robynhood
The Bet: $5 to win on Carrots
3rd Claiming nw2L 8 furlongs
Dream of Sydney fits the prototype of winners of these kinds of races: lightly raced, never seen a conditioned tag before, coming off a good effort vs. open runners. Sydney Sydney
Selections
Dream of Sydney
The Bet: Dream of Sydney
4th Claiming nw3L 8 furlongs – TURF
John Johny Jak is the upset selection here. He enters this 3-Lifetime event having NEVER run for a claiming conditioned tag, in fact his only 2L event was an allowance event. He has never raced on the grass, which should provide some value on the board, but he is very well bred (by Tomlinsons) for the turf and two turns. His one mile effort on the main track in the 2-lifetime allowance event resulted in a pace-pressing win. A similar trip would give him a really good chance today….and at 8/1 on the morning line he’s the value play. Danny’s Prayer stretches out from 5 furlong sprints to today’s two-turn event. He’s won twice on the grass, and when going long previously he was up on the pace. I think he’s the pace-setter here, and without pressure he could get away. Green Bluff is the deserving favorite off his last three turf efforts. Your view of his chances depends on your take for his even effort in his last, which was not as good as his previous two – forgive that effort and he’s solid; believe it’s a sign of declining form, he’s a vulnerable favorite.
Selections
John Johny Jak – Danny’s Prayer – Green Bluff
The Bet: $10 to win on John Johny Jak
5th Maiden Claiming 5 ½ furlongs
One of these two-year-old colts is going to “wake-up” and reverse form today, because they all have illustrated the trait of faltering late in the race – or are first-timers from low percentage barns. Cliff’s Catch is the lone runner who HAS shown the ability to at least not lose ground, or even pass a horse late in the race. That gives him one advantage the others have NOT shown….yet. The fact he’s an 0-for-8 maiden is bothersome however. License to Steal is a first-timer who’s works are steady, but not spectacular. The barn wins only 12% with newbies, but they are winning at 26% overall at the Tropical meeting; and top rider Eibar Coa is aboard today. Rock Gold shows a very quick work for his return to the races. He has shown pressing speed, so with the outside post he should get a good trip under Luis Saez.
Selections
Cliff’s Catch – License to Steal – Rock Gold
The Bet: PASS
6th Claiming 6 ½ furlongs
Tiger at Nite gets the nod to spring the upset today. His last was a late running near miss, and if able to duplicate that effort, his stretch run might power her past the rest of the field which have proven themselves to not have a great willingness to find the finish line. Magic in the Stars has won 3 of his 6 starts, albeit against maidens and conditioned claimers (and today is an open event). He has an apprentice rider and an inside post where he will most likely go to the lead. If left alone, he will not have to work too hard to hold the proven losers at bay today. 5-Miss Double Jet has hit the board in 11 of 18 starts, but has only 3 wins to show for her efforts. She’s also stepping up out of conditioned claimers to face open foes….but she should get a stalking trip and if the top one falters, she’d be first in line to pick up the pieces.
Selections
Tiger at Nite – Magic in the Stars – Miss Double Jet
The Bet: PASS
7th Maiden Special 6 furlongs
Blageuse is a first-time starter out of the powerful Todd Pletcher barn. Perhaps a key to his chances come from how the barn’s initial starter ran on Friday! But Pletcher 2-year-olds (newly-turned 3-year-olds at Gulfstream) are almost always well meant and talented. It is when they offer a little value that you can sometimes capitalize at a price-which may be today. He’s worked sharply at Monmouth for his debut and without a local work, some may shy away. Nasty Rumor also is a value play. He comes from the always strong Marty Wolfson barn, and unlike Blageuse, he’s worked HERE. His works are also sharp. Wolfson’s 8% with first-timers is one of the few categories he does NOT win often with, but perhaps today we get a price. It’s also interesting that he uses an apprentice jockey, while go-to rider Bridgmohan is aboard a rival in here. Do It Baby is a third value option – listed at 8/1 on the morning line – because he goes second time off a less than stellar debut. However trainer Eddie Plesa scores with 20% of his second-time starters. Luis Saez wins at a 20% clip for Plesa, and in spite of being a top rider, earns better than $2 for each $2 invested when riding for Plesa.
Selections
Blageuse – Nasty Rumor – Do It Baby
The Bet: $10 to win on Blageuse
8th Allowance 7 ½ furlongs – TURF
Often the key to handicapping an added-money allowance race like this is to consider the conditions. This allowance condition is for runners who typically have run through their non-winners of 1, 2, and 3. So you are usually looking for runners with stakes experience. This leads us to the top two contenders: Cherokee Queen and Romacca. The nod here goes to Cherokee Queen who is a multiple stakes winner, but her chances are best illustrated by here lone start here at Calder where she won a stakes race on this turf course, going this distance. She has the ability to stalk the pace and finish strongly, and that will be the winning move today. Romacca has stalked the pace to win previously, but her best efforts are when she is on the lead. I’m not willing to take a short price when she faces pace pressure – and her most recent efforts have not produced Beyers which would hold off Cherokee Queen. Dancing Rage rates and upset chance in her with her deep closing style, in spite of the shorter distance. There appears to be a lot of speed signed on today, and if the top ones are ready with their best it will be Dancing Rage flying late to win as she is in form, in condition, and coming off a confidence-boosting effort in her last; and she’s won at today’s distance!
Selections
Cherokee Queen – Romacca – Dancing Rage
The Bet: $10 to win on Cherokee Queen
9th Claiming 8 furlongs
Cracklin is a price play for today’s bottom-level claiming event. There appears to be several horses who will shoot to the front and set a contested pace, setting it up for a late runner. Cracklin is stepping up from conditioned claimers, but he is 3/1-1-1 at today’s distance and is a finishing type. He’s going for Luis Olivares’ barn who shows a super $6.26 ROI with runners returning off a break like this. The upset pick! Rare Red Birds is almost certain to be part of the pace picture with his rail draw, and the fact he’s coming out of sprint races. With the short run to the first turn he could out run the rest of the pace-setting types to the backstretch and be the one to run down at a big price. Theposse’safterme is a deserving favorite – IF he runs back to his best races. The problem is his best, most-recent race was on the turf. His 16/2-6-0 record does not inspire confidence in me in spite of his apparent edge over today’s rivals.
Selections
Cracklin – Rare Red Birds – Theposse’safterme
The Bet: PASS
10th Allowance 5 ½ furlongs
True Expectations impressed someone….she is 4/1 on the morning line against some stakes-placed fillies today off a lone maiden debut victory. She was stuck in post 11 that day going the super-short distance of 5 furlongs which has a very short run to the turn. Yet she stalked mid-pack and drew clear with authority. A repeat of that effort would give her a second win, and probably have her connections thinking stakes races. Cristal Jak came out of a dominating maiden win, drawing off by 7 lengths, to run a clear second in stakes company to future Breeders’ Cup champion Awesome Feather. Off that effort she was installed at 2/5 in non-winners of one allowance company. A disappointing well-beaten 5th led to a layoff. She returns today – which filly shows up here? Fashionable Era comes out of back-to-back stakes tries, the latest being two-turns on the grass. That last effort was just a week ago, so you have to wonder about the quick turn around of a short-priced favorite.
Selections
True Expectations – Cristal Jak – Fashionable Era
The Bet: $5 to win on True Expectations
11th Allowance 5 furlongs – TURF
Haggai and entry-mate Little Miss Julien go for Wesley Ward. With Jeffrey Sanchez named on both, it’s unlikely they both go. Julien is a front-runner stuck on the far outside, so my guess is she scratches. Which is good by me as I much prefer Haggai. She ran competitively at Santa Anita against Breeders’ Cup Turf sprint contender Rose Catherine last winter, and has a dominant win over lesser here on the Calder sod this fall. Her rallying style will play well here. The filly to beat will be Lexie G. You can certainly tell the winter season is close as here’s another horse from a powerful northeastern based outfit – this one goes for turf guru Christophe Clemente. Lexie is probably the most talented in the field, but it bothers me that sprinting on the turf she has run second in three of her four starts….AND that her lone win (in maiden company) was in an off-the-turf sprint. She’ll surely take a lot of action at the windows, but we’ll go with the more value-oriented Haggai. Star of the Town has shown an affinity for the turf, but typically that’s been around two turns. She was the 7/5 favorite when turned back to a sprint in her last, but disappointed in a photo finish to one of the runners in the field today.
Selections
Haggai – Lexie G. – Star of the Town
The Bet: $5 to win on Haggai
12th Maiden Claiming 7 furlongs
Blanca Luna may be the BEST PRICE PLAY of the day! Here’s a field of bottom level maiden 2-year-old fillies where there is nary a runner who’s shown any ability at all. All but two have failed at this level already – so what does this tell us? The race is destined for a “chaos” result! BIG PRICES AHEAD! Blanca Luna is one of the two dropping in class today. She is lightly raced, having been out only three times. She debuted at $25K and was far back. She went to the shelf and came back on a slight drop to $20K. She was 40-1 and was again soundly beaten. Yet, curiously, off that dismal effort she returned at the SAME $20K level and was bet down to 10-1! She showed speed for a half, then stopped. Today she drops to the bottom – a classic illustration of a winning angle: Early Speed/Class Drop. She’s 10/1 on the morning line and as good as any in here. Vintage Candy dropped from $20 to $12 in her last and responded with a third place finish at 50-1. Another step forward might get her picture taken here. Tripleconsolidator has put together a string of four straight races in the superfecta, including a photo finishing 2nd place finish in her last; though the 0-8 record is worrisome.
Selections
Blanca Luna – Vintage Candy – Tripleconsolidator
The Bet: $10 to win on Blanca Luna
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