Sunday November 28
1st Claiming 8 furlongs
Asiatic Pearl drops into this nw2Y category for the first time out of open company, and first off the claim. Draw a line through the last when far back in a very slow-paced affair, and any of the previous five speed figures would win here by daylight. Looks good if he can get any kind of pace to target. Dance For Zack is an interesting proposition, as he too comes first off the claim, but he won THIS CONDITION in his last…..in spite of being eligible for a nw1Y, he won a 2Y race. A repeat of that effort, which be within his reach as he was a relatively consistent 8/3-1-1. Fantastic Lisa goes to the front when routing, and comes out of a 5 ½ furlong sprint, so that would appear to be her strategy today. Could get brave if able to slow down the pace.
Selections
Asiatic Pearl
The Bet: $5 to win on Asiatic Pearl
2nd Maiden Special 8 ½ furlongs – TURF
Blue Angel Express has paired Beyers in her last two, her only turf runs. She may be ready to make a move forward today and could be dangerous on the drop from state-stakes to Maiden Special company. High On Kitten made a bid, then gave way in her turf debut as the 5/2 favorite. Has the best turf numbers and gets a rider change to Eibar Coa – one more chance. Evil Queen exited back-to-back stakes efforts on the main to run 3rd in a MSW on the turf in her last – ironically the race High On Kitten faded in.
Selections
Blue Angel Express – High On Kitten – Evil Queen
The Bet: $5 to win on Blue Angel Express
3rd Starter Allowance 5 ½ furlongs
My Pal Chrisy rallied strongly to break her maiden in $25K company in her last. The two rail runners look to duel each other into submission and set up her late run. Dreaming of Donato won his debut for Team Calabrese from off the pace. Though, it appears the field was weak as the internal and final times were slow. Still, might be good enough to beat this group. No More Yogi’s appears to be the speed of the speed. If able to dispose of her pace rivals she could be dangerous on the front end.
Selections
My Pal Chrisy – Dreaming of Donato – No More Yogi’s
The Bet: PASS
4th Maiden Claiming 6 furlongs
Princess Della was a well-beaten 6th in her debut, in late August, however it was in Maiden Special company. She is the lone MSW dropper in this bottom-level maiden seller….and that alone makes her a contender. She shows three works since and might have enough “talent” to win today at a fair price. Miss Unbridled’s has the best current form, having run a good second at this level in her last. But the 0 for 13 record does not inspire much confidence. Holy Bling has run three of four lifetime starts for a higher tag, without much success. But the one try at this level was a dueling pace effort when settling for third….maybe with these.
Selections
Princess Della – Miss Unbridled’s – Holy Bling
The Bet: PASS
5th Claiming 7 furlongs
Super Girlie has run well at the distance (3/0-2-1), but against better company. She was the 2/1 favorite in her last when dropping to this level for the first time, but was coming off a two month break which probably explains her lack of finishing punch when second. Jockey Manoel Cruz is enlisted again, and he’s a 26% rider for the barn. Crown Glory has won 3 of 4 starts at the unique 7 furlong distance, and earns the upset nod in here today. Her lone defeat at the distance was to today’s rival, Ready to Mambo who is stuck on the AE list. With four wins in her last six starts (3 at 7 panels, one at 6 ½) she has earned successively better Beyers. She is in-form, loves the distance, and will be in position at the top of the lane to be in contention. Blackjack Beauty has earned three Beyers in the 70’s, which would win today….but all were around two turns. Her one try at the distance was a near-miss 2nd. She offers little value however at 7/2 on the morning line.
Selections
Super Girlie – Crown Glory – Blackjack Beauty
The Bet: $10 to win on Super Girlie
6th Maiden Claiming 5 furlongs
D’Dream may be the right price play in here, as it appears the logical choices have vulnerability issues. D’Dream is lightly raced, only two starts, and both came against better – so the drop in class should move him up. He goes turf to dirt, adds blinkers, and goes for a $20K tag out of MSW company in his last. In addition, his debut – for $40K – saw him right on the pace through a :45.4 half – quick enough to be in front with this group. At 6/1 on the morning line, he’s a good value play today. Barry K is the obvious chalk having just run 2nd against a notch better ($25K). However he appears to be the prototypical “play against” favorite as he’s run 2nd in two straight, and 3rd in his other two while being the beaten favorite in his last three at odds of 4/5, 3/5, and 4/5 successively. He could win, but not with my money. Close It Out is another price alternative to logical contenders Bull Dozer, City Genius, and Deal in the Lot. He is a first time starter out of a barn that wins with 18% of those at an ROI of $3.75!
Selections
D’Dream – Barry K – Close It Out
The Bet: $5 to win on D’Dream
7th Claiming 8 ½ furlongs – TURF
C C Cerada is 10/4-3-0 on the grass, and goes out for Team Calabrese today. He’s lost his last two, including his South Florida debut to today’s pace rival Dream With Us. However in both his last two he was a fast-closing 2nd to lose in photos going one mile….today the distance is 1 1/16th mile – a distance at which Dream With Us is 11/0-3-1! The taste of revenge is sweet today! Sky Cap should get a perfect pocket trip and is a good price play. However his form is inconsistent and in spite of his stalking style he’s been beaten by several of today’s rivals – both pace rivals and closers. Finally, Ventania would not be a surprise, again at a fair price. Paco Lopez has a habit of moving up horses, at a price, in spite of being one of the better local riders when in town – either here or Gulfstream. Ventania is 4/2-0-1 at the distance and rallies from mid-pack. However his two most recent wins were against 2L and 3L company.
Selections
CC Cerada – Sky Cap – Ventania
The Bet: $10 to win on CC Cerada
8th AOC 7 furlongs
Put Me First sports an excellent 2 wins at 3 tries going the 7 furlong journey. But what really appeals about this Manny Cruz-guided filly is that she was a DOMINANT winner at this first level allowance level, and has run her last two races against nw2x company. She gets to run at this condition by being entered for the $16K tag today. Looks solid. Rosebud’s Ridge looks to be the controlling speed, and if left alone on an easy lead she could prove dangerous on the front end. Heirness was a debut winner at 7/5, and has worked quickly since then, including a bullet in her latest. Might be good enough to step up and beat winners right away.
Selections
Put Me First – Rosebud’s Ridge – Heirness
The Bet: $10 to win on Put Me First
9th AOC 8 ½ furlongs – TURF
Firey Red is a logical contender coming off two seconds and a third in four starts at major tracks: Keeneland, Saratoga Hollywood
Selections
Firey Red – Margared Smile – Simply Impressive
The Bet: PASS
10th Maiden Claiming 6 furlongs
Skating Home closes the weekend at a price. A first-time starter from an 18% FTS barn, she’s as good as any of the vulnerable contenders who’ve proven they cannot win at this bottom level. Delightful Dee will set sail on the lead, and has the numbers to carry her speed. But the fact she has already been run down twelve times, I see her as a “bet against” favorite. Real Fortuna has shown the ability to pass horses through the stretch, so if the firster isn’t good enough, she’s the most logical to run down the faint-hearted front runner.
Selections
Skating Home – Delightful Dee – Real Fortuna
The Bet: PASS
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