Friday November 19 Selections (Thursday recap)

It was a good day Thursday indeed......

Here are the selections for Friday:

12:25    1^st         Maiden Special           7 furlongs                                                                                                        

Where’s Sterling may actually offer a little value today in spite of being a part of the powerful Frank Calabrese stable, and going first time out for 43% trainer Luis Ramirez.  He is lightly raced and improved significantly off his debut start, a one-mile event on the grass, when turned back to a 6 ½ furlong sprint.  Since coming to South Florida he shows two quick works, and has been training steadily.  The local go-to rider appears to be Daniel Centeno, and he is aboard today.  The reason we may get a fair price is that Apriority will probably take a big share of the attention at the windows.  He has been out six times already, but the first five were in Southern California where he earned strong Beyers, and actually ran second to future graded stakes winner Golden Itiz.  What is bothersome however is that his Beyers probably reflect more the talent of the winners, rather than his own.  This seems to be clear when you see he earned three solid Beyers to start his career, then was 5^th as the 1-2 favorite.  It would be easy to dismiss that loss and his latest – another 5^th – as both were on the turf.  But having already eaten a lot of money, and no solid evidence that he is as good as his short price indicates, I’ll stick with Where’s Sterling.  Tellum Berto is a logical alternative.  In two main-track sprints he’s earned Beyers that make him competitive with the top two.  And like Apriority, you can forgive his three off-the-board finishes, as they were all on the grass.

Selections

Where’s Sterling – Apriority – Tellum Berto

The Bet:  $5 to win on Where’s Sterling

12:52    2^nd        Claiming nw2L       6 furlongs                                                                                                        

Proud Trippi is lightly raced – only seven starts – and has only been in conditioned 2L company once.  That was his last, and though not competitive at the finish, he did show speed for a half….AND it was against a better class of runners, AND it was on the grass.  Today he gets his first dirt 2L try and his speed should provide him with a solid chance.  His connections thought enough of him to run him in a stakes race at Gulfstream two back, so there must be a hint of talent there.  All Drama is the logical favorite, having won three back, then a good 3^rd in a KEY optional-claimer two back.  His last was his first try in 2L company, and like Proud Trippi it was against betterand on an off-track (where he was a narrowly beaten third).  Trippindownahiway deserves consideration for his ability to finish.  It is possible that the two inside runners and the top two selections here all duel near the front.  Trippin’ has shown the ability to finish races, and he drops in class, and goes turf-to-dirt like the top two.

Selections

Proud Trippi – All Drama – Trippindownahiway

The Bet:  PASS

1:19      3^rd        Maiden Claiming  8 furlongs – TURF                                                                                           

Smurf City has the highest rated Tomlinsons for turf and distance, and if you can forgive her debut at a mile on the turf in July – a tough assignment first time out of the box – she has to be given a chance.  Pistol Peg marks the winter return of jockey Rosemary Homiester, and one thing about Rose….she always gives her mounts the best possible chance to win.  Atlantic Breeze will almost certainly be winging it on the front end, but can she last?  She has blinkers off today, and that might just allow her to be brave on the lead.

Selections

Smurf City – Pistol Peg – Atlantic Breeze

The Bet:  PASS

1:46      4^th        Claiming     6 furlongs                                                                                                        

Jilluke had two wins and a photo 2^nd in $5K company at Arlington, shipped here and was a solid third vs. $8K types.  Moves to another Calabrese trainer and drops to the $5K level as a probable winner against some in-and-out types from the local scene.  Nemo Landing was claimed FROM the Calabrese connections and scored at this level at a remarkable 3-5 (highly unlikely going from such a powerful stable to a local “good” one).  If he runs another race like that one he has to be in the mix.  Jazz Nation has been the favorite in 8 of his last ten, including five times at odds-on.  In 2010 he’s been very consistent, 11/5-2-2, so when dropped to this level in his last it was a BIG surprise that he was beaten over twenty lengths.  Too bad to be true – one more chance.

Selections

Jilluke – Nemo Landing – Jazz Nation

The Bet:  $5 to win on Jilluke

2:15      5^th        Maiden Claiming   1 mile / 70 yards                                                                                             

Guiding Spirit is the lone entrant – of a very weak bunch – who has never raced at this level.  That is the best angle to coming up with a logical choice.  Preacher’s Kid stretches out for a new barn, and has been competitive against this type and slightly better.  Sicardi gets a big rider switch to Daniel Centeno, and he does win a third of his mounts for the barn.  His two best efforts came when coming off a break – like today!

Selections

Guiding Spirit – Preacher’s Kid – Sicardi

The Bet:  PASS

2:43      6^th        Maiden Special    8 furlongs – TURF                                                                                           

Itouch begins what is sure to be a L-O-N-G line of Todd Pletcher runners in South Florida over the next five months.  He is reasonably well bred for turf and a distance of ground.  He gets top turf rider Eibar Coa up, and is making his second start – off a break since early September.  Pletcher scores 25% off the shelf and with 27% of his second time starters.  Looks solid today.  Runyon Humor has the best Tomlinson numbers to indicate a big effort on the grass.  And he has a 24% rider on board; however the barn is a lowly 4% with second time starters.  Mixed signals.  Jazzy Giant is the only one in here who’s actually been on the turf.  He showed absolutely nothing, however he broke behind the field and was never involved.  Blinkers off today might wake him up in his second start.

Selections

Itouch – Runyon Humor – Jazzy Giant

The Bet:  $5 to win on Itouch

3:10      7^th        Claiming nw3L       6 furlongs                                                                                                        

Tillie the Tigress has only run once on the main track for a conditioned tag – and that was a win at this level for 2L types.  Off that effort – two back – she went into open $10K company at 7 panels.  On the pace for a half before fading to be a not so badly beaten by five lengths, she drops back to her winning level and turns back to 6 furlongs today with top local rider Manny Cruz.  Act of Blues is a very likely winner off her effort two back where she dominated this level by a widening 7 lengths.  She stepped into 3L company at this class level, but broke dead last….yet still rallied for the show only 1 ½ off the leader.  No surprise to see her get her picture taken again.  Requital won at this level two back, then was laid off;  she came back at $16K 3L level – nearly triple the price – and on the turf.  After showing little in that experiment, she drops back to $6K and back to the main track here.

Selections

Tillie the Tigress – Act of Blues – Requital

The Bet:  PASS

3:39      8^th        Claiming     1 mile / 70 yards                                                                                             

Marilla, Sweetdreamin Lacey, and Da Lady Vikki all share a common trait – the last time they ran in conditioned company they were dominant winners.  All three of them are solid win contenders.  However, we’ll list Marilla on top.  Marilla has not only been a decisive winner in her last conditioned race, but she was also a dominant winner of her previous conditioned company event.  Add to this that both Sweetdreamin Lacey and Da Lady Vikki were both DEFEATED by Marilla in their last race.  SOLID.  Sweetdreamin Lacey has one edge over Marilla – Lacey runs near the pace and Marilla is a deep closer.  On Sept 26 they met going a flat mile and Marilla was not able to reel Lacey in; but in their last, at 8 ½ furlongs Marilla easily ran by here.  Today it is a distance in between.  Da Lady Vikki not only runs near the pace, on her best efforts she is THE PACE!  If able to spring clear of the other pace rivals she could go wire to wire.

Selections

Marilla – Sweetdreamin Lacey – Da Lady Vikki

The Bet:  $10 to win on Marilla

4:09      9^th        Claiming     8 ½ furlongs – TURF                                                                                        

Magic Mecke leads an evenly matched group of older turf runners.  He merits the nod in here based on his 33% win rate on the Calder sod.  Today is his second start off a break, and if able to show his best, he can win this event with a mid-pack stalking effort.  Sigmondo has run strong enough Beyers to win today, and even here – but more impressively on the NYRA circuit.  He is coming off a break and may be ready for a top effort, but his works are less than inspiring considering the field today.  If Broadway Actor can sit just off the pace he is a serious win threat.  I don’t think he can wire the field, but I do think he’s good enough to win if rating.

Selections

Magic Mecke – Sigmondo – Broadway Actor

The Bet:  PASS

4:39      10^th       AOC           6 ½  furlongs                                                                                                   

Dubai Connection has run her best races when cutting back in distance.  She was a dominant winner over starter allowance foes in her last – going two turns.  The turn back today, and her 50% win rate here at Calder points her out as a likely stalking trip winner.  True Will has the perfect post – she can stalk the lead from her outside gate, or take command if the pace is slow.  She has been a dominant sprint winner THREE times at this level.  Where’s the wire???  Miss Aristocrat is the class play – she broke her maiden in her debut and came right back to beat nw1x allowance foes.  Since then she has been in nothing but stakes company and AOC for nw2x.  Today she runs for the $16K tag and can thus face non-winners of one again.  Winless for some time, she could be a pricey winner today!

Selections

Dubai Connection – True Will – Aristocrat

The Bet:  $10 to win on Dubai Connection

5:09      11^th       Maiden Claiming     5 ½ Furlongs                                                                                                   

Cinnamon Rush is the lone class dropper in the field.  She finished a dismal 7^th of 9 – but it was a ultra-KEY race as the second AND third place runners came right back to break their maidens.  Would not have to have much talent to get her picture taken today.  Massive Reaction was crossed the finish line first – but was subsequently disqualified – from a sprint at Colonial Downs in one of their rare main-track events.  She wired the field that day and may have the opportunity to lead the way gate to wire.  It’sthemoneyhoney was a clear second when dropped to this level for the first time two back.  Off that effort she was the favorite in her last, but after a brief bid she flattened out.  Perhaps it was the off-going?  Today gets a rider upgrade to Luis Saez from an apprentice jock.  Would not be a surprise.

Selections

Cinnamon Rush – Massive Reaction – It’sthemoneyhoney

The Bet:  PASS