Michelle's Trip got the best trip on the rail to win the 5th
Tintim Por Tintim was much the best in the 7th
Saturday's Selections:
Saturday November 27
1st Claiming nw2L 7 furlongs
Boogie Woogie kicks off the opener today as a timid selection in a field that is a combined 9 for 162 (9 horse field) – and they have ALL been beaten but one, who’s broke his maiden in his 11th try – YIKES! The angle which draws our attention to the Boogie Man is that he at least has not raced for low of a tag. He was claimed two back and gets a new rider today, Manny Cruz. Holiday Ashley has run her last three races at the unique 7 furlong distance and has run 3rd, then 2nd, and topped off the series with a win – all against bottom level maiden claimers. Shotgun Donna is lightly raced, and she is trying a one-turn main track event for the first time. She was just up in time two back, then was well-beaten in her first try against winners, at this level. Perhaps the turnback will benefit her today.
Selections
Boogie Woogie – Holiday Ashley – Shotgun Donna
The Bet: PASS
2nd Maiden Claiming 5 furlongs – TURF
Hoping this stays on the grass, but we did have a very light and brief shower Wednesday night, so you never know at Calder……wow……but if it is on the grass, No Peace At All gets the nod. Shipped to Woodbine for his fourth career start, he was odds-on in MSW company on the poly-surface. He dueled to the stretch, was briefly clear, and then weakened late. Assuming that he will handle the turf in a similar fashion to the synthetic he should give a good account of himself here today. Ridden by Paco Lopez who is gearing up for Gulfstream, and first time out of the David Fawkes barn, a 17% angle (27% when fresh like today!). Wise Connection was a good 4th in his last turf start, at 50-1, and he was steadied in mid-stretch – the problem is, that was LAST December. Is he ready for today? Stamen ran a good 4th as well on the turf sprinting here, but it was a year ago October! He was off from December ’09 until three weeks ago, where he showed speed in a turf sprint before understandably weakening. With one under his belt he should be better today.
Selections
No Peace At All – Wise Connection – Stamen
The Bet: $5 to win on No Peace At All (turf or dirt)
3rd Claiming nw2L 1 mile / 70 yards
Indy’s Pride may prove a front-winning victor here as no one, and I mean NO ONE wants the lead. Indy broke his maiden going a similar distance (1 mile) by going to the front for this rider, and never looking back. If he makes an easy lead, he should be LONG gone today. Easily Distracted apparently IS easily distracted as he’s broken slowly in both career starts. However, when stretched to two turns in his last he rallied – from 15 lengths off the pace – to break his maiden. A closer position to the field would be beneficial today. Sheer Joy broke his maiden in his debut, closing “with a rush” reads the comment, when closing from 11th – some 11 lengths back when sprinting. He came faced 2L winners in his last, but for a higher tag. Perhaps the drop and the potential for improvement with experience can get the job done today.
Selections
Indy’s Pride – Easily Distracted – Sheer Joy
The Bet: $5 to win on Indy’s Pride
4th Maiden Claiming 5 ½ furlongs
Happy Touch is the “against the grain” selection here. Niki’s Ice will be on everyone’s ticket based on her superior speed figures and close finish in her last. However, a more careful examination shows Niki has been runner-up in three straight – every race of her career! She was clear by five lengths in her debut, and faltered; then went off at 9/5 as the chalk and dueled, only to falter; then in her last she was 4/5 and led by 3 in mid-stretch….and faltered. Where as Happy Touch makes her first start today, and her in late October when firing a near bullet out of the gate tells me she’s got some talent. Trippi’s Valentine showed good speed vs. much better in her debut before tiring badly. It’s the classic “Early speed – Class drop” angle.
Selections
Happy Touch – Niki’s Ice – Trippi’s Valentine
The Bet: PASS
5th Starter Allowance 9 furlongs – TURF
Marquet Cat the most accomplished turf runner here, assuming it stays on the grass. He may have company on the front end, but he has never failed to make the lead. Figuring Paco Lopez gets in front, slows it down and hangs on based on back class. Livingston Street has back class, a top rider in Luis Saez, and a chance to upset with a late run if the pace is contested. May be the one at a fair price. John Johny Jak was the upset pick 7 days ago, and he wheels right back. With the rail, a bug rider, and a front-running win in his last, he may be thinking theft again.
Selections
Marquet Cat – Livingston Street – John Johny Jak
The Bet: $5 to win on Marquet Cat
6th Claiming 5 ½ furlongs
Of All Times comes off a first-off-the-barn switch win for Team Calabrese. And in this field of hapless losers, that is good enough for a tepid nod for first run to the wire. Paster’s Bad Habit also has good recent form, having scored by open lengths against non-winners 1x in a year; takes the logical step to non-winners 2x in a year today. Considering that was his first win since at least early October 2009, I’ll go against any semblance of consistency with a 2nd consecutive win here. Fivenineteen has not won since the Gulfstream meet, however he has only been out 7 times – much fewer losses than any other runner today.
Selections
Of All Times – Paster’s Bad Habit – Fivenineteen
The Bet: PASS
7th Claiming 8 furlongs
Bridled Quest ran in a nw1Y three back and was a dominant winner at 5/2. Stepped up into back-to-back starter allowance company. He ran competitively in both those, but now drops back into conditioned company (nw2Y) today. He looks best in here. Brother Joey will probably set sail on the engine today – he was loose on the lead in his last and just failed to last going a 16th further that day. The slightly shorter run to the wire may be all he needs. Mz’s Don Zulon was switched to the Calabrese barn and trainer Nick Canani for his last, and was 2nd to $15K 3L company at Arlington
Selections
Bridled Quest – Brother Joey – Mz’s Don Zulon
The Bet: $10 to win on Bridled Quest
8th AOC 7 ½ furlongs - TURF
Manhattan Fox has run very strongly in all but one race since coming to North America for Christophe Clemente. The problem is that those races have produced a 6/0-1-3 record. Jersey Joe Bravo is in town to ride for Clemente today, and this appears to be an ideal spot to get his first win state-side. Barra D’Oro may clear the field, and if able to set an uncontested pace, could wire this short turf route. Later Gater is an old veteran who’s won nearly 30% of his turf starts, and it’s never a good idea to ignore a proven turf winner.
Selections
Manhatta Fox – Barra D’Oro – Later Gater
The Bet: $5 to win on Manhattan
9th Claiming nw2L 5 ½ furlongs
Ashley’s Code leads a very weak group to the post today. She has 10 in-the-money finishes from 14 starts, and won just three back. She was a photo-finish loser in her last at this level going a 16th farther; she is the most in-form runner here, and with the rail might find this group to her liking for her 2nd career win. Pay Your Way is the lone dropper out of non-classified competition, but it’s been my experience that even the allowance company at Suffolk Downs is suspect, so I tend to discount Pay’s form. Still, never seen the 2L tag has to count for something. Sexy Thunder like so many others has a dismal record (18/1-1-2), but she did show speed for a half going 6 panels. Maybe the shortened distance will allow her to hang on here.
Selections
Ashley’s Code – Pay Your Way – Sexy Thunder
The Bet: PASS
10th Maiden Special 1 mile / 70 yards
Cool Red Blue Hot was a sizzling second with a HUGE Beyer of 96 in his debut, missing in a photo at Belmont
Selections
Cool Red Blue Hot – Relampago – Hal
The Bet: $15 to win on Cool Red Blue Hot
11th AOC 7 ½ furlongs – TURF
Marcello has run in six consecutive stakes (4 of them graded) since winning his first level allowance. He has good form on the grass, and meets much, MUCH easier company today. He should sit a great pocket trip behind a wall of front runners who will set the race up for someone with a finishing punch. My bet is that Marcello gets the jump on the deep closers, and will have a much smoother trip – not having to worry about traffic behind tiring rivals. Class tells on grass - looks solid under Luis Saez. Nineinthenine would be the beneficiary of a hot pace, IF the deep closer can get smooth sailing and Marcello is too close to the pace. El Commodore could be the fly in the ointment – he is one of many front running types, BUT…….. he has the rail, and has NEVER been headed at the first call. If able to quickly establish the lead, slow the pace down, and find something for the stretch, the Commodore could be the one here.
Selections
Marcello – Nineinthenine – El Commodore
The Bet: $10 to win on Marcello
12th Maiden Claiming 6 furlongs
Impressive Storm is the upset pick in the “get-out” race for Saturday….in fact, I’d recommend you “get out” just after cashing your tickets on the 11th, as this bottom maiden claimer is full of runners who have little if anything going for them. At least Impressive Storm has never had the opportunity to lose, being he’s a firster. He will also be a price as he goes for a 1-for-15 barn, who is winless with first-timers and is ridden by a 1-24 jockey. The fact that these factors “make him” the top pick should tell you something about this race! Unbridled Sword deserves to be the luke-warm favorite as he’s only been out once, and that was a troubled trip. He broke dead last, made his way to with 3 lengths of the lead before being checked at the 16th pole. The favorite I think, but the barn is winless, and the rider is from out of town, also winless at the Tropical stand. Bringithomebruce would be a solid favorite off his debut when he was a race-long dueling 2nd. The problem is that race was in July……2009!
Selections
Impressive Storm – Unbridled Sword – Bringithomebruce
The Bet: PASS
No comments:
Post a Comment