Thursday – Thanksgiving Day – November 25
1st Maiden Claiming 1 mile / 70 yards
Wireless Macho seems a pretty obvious choice – top rider, double Beyer advantage, experience at the distance, early speed and class drop off his last. A little disconcerting that he has no works since this last effort, but on paper he appears to be the clear favorite. Mister Alke appears to be the main danger to the top one. He was a definitive third in his last – though beaten by over twelve lengths, he was over ten lengths clear of the rest of the field. A repeat of that kind of effort would make him a legitimate threat today. An interesting longshot would be Lil John Paul. Like the top one he showed early speed for a half in his last, and drops in class today. On the positive side, today is only his third start, so he appears to have license to improve; on the negative side his debut was at this level and he was a well-beaten 10th.
Selections
Wireless Macho – Mister Alke – Lil John Paul
The Bet: $5 to win on Wireless Macho
2nd Starter Allowance 6 furlongs
Abonero is the inside speed, and there’s no question he wants the front end. If able to clear he has the best pace figures, and it wouldn’t be hard to envision him wiring the field. The problem appears that there are several other pace rivals today. It’s all about the break and the opening quarter here. Jaranero won his debut and repeated against Starter Allowance company at the $25K level. Curiously he dropped to Starter Allowance company at the $16K level – no surprise that he was the 6/5 favorite…..but he finished off the board beaten nearly eight lengths. He has a stalking/finishing style, so a pace duel would be beneficial to his chances. Wildcat Special broke his maiden in his debut with a stalking trip. His outside post sets up a similar trip, and his bullet work since then may indicate he’s ready to move forward today at a fair price.
Selections
Abonero – Jaranero – Wildcat Special
The Bet: PASS
3rd Maiden Claiming 5 ½ furlongs
Just For Frank is appropriately named as he runs for the powerful Frank Calabrese stable. Frank debuted in Maiden Special company at Arlington MSW dropper, after showing early speed, he appears to be a standout. Pompompomeroy set the pace from post 11 two back and held on for a solid second. But he failed to repeat that effort in his last when being defeated by Peaceadaaction – who runs in the 2nd today vs. starter allowance company….a good effort there may point out Pompompomeroy in this race. Select the Best is a first timer for Manny Tortora. Which stats carries the most weight….the fact he’s a 21% winner with today’s rider or the fact that the Tortora barn is off to a 1 for 26 start at the Tropical meet?
Selections
Just For Frank – Pompompomeroy – Select the Best
The Bet: $15 to win on Just For Frank
4th Claiming nw3L 1 mile / 70 yards
Babylon Rich doesn’t share the same record as his rivals today who are all multiple losers, and the conditioned claiming level. True, Rich does show four losses in this conditioned category, but his overall record is fine: 10/2-1-1. But more importantly, he was claimed out of his last by Chris Gratis, who’s winning 29% overall, and is an excellent 24% first off the claim. Adding to the appeal is that jockey Manny Cruz takes the mount, and he wins at a stellar 36% for Gratis. He looks best of these. The Cat Rules had fair form when shipped to Calder for his last, but didn’t fare well. He came back in his last race and responded to Luis Saez’s handling to go wire to wire and earn a huge Beyer of 76. Loose on the lead today would make him a solid threat. Cat Daddy with 25 starts is the most “lightly raced!” of the rest of the field. I highly doubt he’s a win threat, but at least he’s hit the board 12 of his 25 starts. Maybe in the exotics.
Selections
The Bet: $5 to win on Babylon
5th Maiden Claiming 7 furlongs
Alina’s Lad is lightly raced, and coming off a layoff in his last tried 7 furlongs for the first time. Dropping to this class level for the first time he stalked the pace to the stretch, was passed – but then came again to narrow the gap in the stretch. He should be fitter today, and with experience at the distance may hold an edge over his rivals here. Great Indian was also a good third in his latest, and also fresh off a layoff. He was trying two turns off the break and the turn back to 7 panels today would work well in his favor. The fact he goes out for owner Frank Calabrese is further evidence that he is a contender here. Ulterior Motive is a deserving favorite as he drops to the bottom for the first time. He was a good third against a notch better in his last as well. But the fact that he’s disappointed at 1/5, 4/5, 1/2, and 6/5 in his last four makes me wary.
Selections
Alina’s Lad – Great Indian – Ulterior Motive
The Bet: PASS
6th Claiming nw2L 8 furlongs – TURF
Awesome Dream may provide a fair price in today’s race as handicapper’s may not see his turf talent due to his darkened form. Going back to early June Dream was a late running 5th, beaten less than 5 lengths in his turf debut off a layoff. He came back to be a photo-finish 2nd earning an excellent Beyer of 79. Off that effort he was entered in the Grade 2 Virginia Derby – and in spite of being 50-1 was dueling on the lead for the opening four furlongs. Since then he has not been able to get back on the grass. His last was an off-the-turf here at Calder, off a break and he was a good third. Getting back on the turf today may due the trick….and oh yeah, the trainer has a 20% (ROI=$3.01) 2nd off the shelf. Awesome Dream’s best Beyer – a second off the layoff turf event! Look out! Afleet Alan has improved his speed figures in his last four turf efforts and in those races has never been beaten more than 1 ¼ lengths (4/1-2-1). His last two speed figures make him solidly the one to beat. Congar is a front-running threat with Eibar Coa aboard. If able to break to the front and slow down the fractions he could take them a long way.
Selections
Awesome Dream – Afleet Alan – Congar
The Bet: $5 to win on Awesome Dream
7th Allowance 8 furlongs
Flyin Trey is 2 for 13 at the one-mile trip, while the rest of the field is a combined 3 for 20 at one mile…that gives him one edge. He’s won three of his last four and appears to be in peak form. But what appeals to this handicapper is the fact that he is a confirmed mid-pack rally type. There is a plethora of speed signed on for today, and this pace scenario combined with his solid recent from should earn him another trip to the winner’s circle. United States Jersey Shore
Selections
Flyin Trey – United States
The Bet: $5 to win on Flyin Trey
8th AOC 6 furlongs
On paper this race appears to come down to two classy, lightly-raced runners both coming off a layoff. Itain’tover was my selection last week, but he scratched apparently for this spot – a tougher spot. He goes first off for Marty Wolfson, which is a 31% angle, and he has go-to rider Jermaine Bridgmohan aboard. His maiden breaker in his second race – a 7 furlong event at Churchill was stellar. The bullet, best of 34 on November 3 points out his readiness. Green Monster was a late-running 2nd to stakes winner Friend or Foe in his debut. He came off that effort to win going away in a KEY race. The problem is, these were both at Gulfstream last spring. Here’s the real rub – Green Monster is ALSO out of the Marty Wolfson barn! Casino Gambler is the most prolific at the distance (14/4-3-2) and at Calder (28/8-4-5). On his best day he’s a threat if the top two are not ready.
Selections
Itain’tover – Green Monster – Casino Gambler
The Bet: $5 to win on Itain’tover
9th Allowance 6 ½ furlongs
Gold For Cash may be the sneaky speed of this dash as there appears to be no one who wants to go to the front. He has had several pace efforts that would put him on a clear lead in here – and if left alone he could easily cruise home as the lone speed. Motin is the most obvious of the contenders. His narrow loss to stakes winner Little Drama, and his record sprinting with Junior Alvarez aboard (6/1-4-1) is the best among these. He comes from well off the pace, so he’ll need some help up front. Joe’s Blazing Action comes off a dominating maiden win at six furlongs. His best of 75 bullet may indicate that he’s ready to take another step forward. At a price…..
Selections
Gold For Cash – Motin – Joe’s Blazing Action
The Bet: PASS
10th Maiden Special 5 furlongs – TURF
Frontside is a first-time starter who goes out for a barn that wins regularly with these (20%) and is well-bred for the grass. With jockey Luis Saez up and a bullet in his holster she appears ready to fire today. Mending Hearts goes for Marty Wolfson and go-to rider Jermaine Bridgmohan – he is even more regally bred for the grass; but Wolfson only hits with 8% of his first timers. Evil Grin is Paco Lopez’s first mount of the winter, and he is usually a VERY strong rider both at Calder and Gulfstream – his mounts always are in the hunt.
Selections
Frontside – Mending Hearts – Evil Grin
The Bet: PASS
Date/Race Distance Class Selection DRF ML
Churchill Downs
3-Churchill 7f Claiming nw2L 4 – Rena 5/1
Never been on the main, but also has never run in claiming event, much less 2L claiming event
5-Churchill Turf 5f Allowance 6 – Moralist 8/1
Has been competitive with top turf sprinters Chamb. Bridge, Silver Timber, and Central City / Best lifetime turf sprint was HERE at CD! – Upset chance
6-Churchill 8f Claiming 9 – Coach Ryan 3/1
One of view who have won at the one-turn mile – BIG EDGE / Back class / Off the shelf for Leparoux and Amos (23% off layoff) who are a 23% J-T team
7-Churchill 8.5f Claiming nw2L 6 – Indy News 4/1
Bill Mott charge is lightly raced and drops from an open C20 4th at today’s distance into a C15 nw2L / Only concern is deep closing style
8-Churchill 6f Allowance 4 – Latigo Shore
In 5 of his last 6 races he has raced in stakes company, 3 graded stakes – twice stk-placed including at G1 level…only non-stakes à a romp vs. Alw!
10-Churchill 8f Allowance 4 – Wise Dan 6/5
Lightly raced colt won 3 in a row, including G3 Phoenix before being beaten less than 2 in the BC Sprint / Never been beyond 6f but well bred for it
11-Churchill 9f Grade 2 Falls City H’Cap 4 – Distinctive Dixie 9/5
Loves the CD main track, but the main draw here is Dixie is the LONE runner who has front-running speed …..L-O-N-G gone – CD “BEST”
Fair Grounds
1-Fair Grounds 6f Maiden Claiming 9 – Miss Michelle 8/1
Early Speed-Class Drop / Tasty price on runner who’s going for 21% (ROI-$3.37) 2nd start barn / Drops from CD $50K to $15K
3-Fair Grounds 6f Allowance 2 – Cherry Forever 3/1
Has won 3 allowance events vs. state-breds, but these don’t count in open allowance conditions / A 4x winner at distance holds the edge here
4-Fair Grounds Turf 8.5f AOC 1 – Gangbuster 6/1
Won HERE at this distance in Feb for $30K, been in stakes company since / Off shelf and back to winning distance and course
6-Fair Grounds Turf 8f Claiming 6 – Attempted Humor 3/1
First off the claim for Asmussen (22%) was stakes placed for Pletcher / Back class, and if a shadow of himself he should walk with this heat for 24% J-T
8-Fair Grounds 6f Thanksgiving Handicap 4 – Cool Bullet 6/1
A solid sprinter who’s won stakes races – 4 wins from last 11 starts….what do they all have in common à all at 6 furlongs (including stakes HERE!)
Aqueduct
2-Aqueduct Turf 8.5f Claiming 2 – Platinumplus 5/2
Last 3 (2 wins, photo loss) all earned Beyers that are LENGTHS clear of the field – all we need is weather cooperation
2-Aqueduct Off Turf 8f Claiming 14 – Lady Durlyn 2/1
If the rains take this off the grass and MTO Lady draws in, she’s a solid favorite – her best speed figures came on the one-turn mile track at CD
3-Aqueduct 6f Allowance 5 – Hot Minute 2/5
2/5 on the ML? WOW! Not only fastest, and dueled stakes winner 2 back, but bullet work, and first-time Rudy Rod (45% angle) / Dominguez 41% J-T
5-Aqueduct 6f AOC 4 – Temecula Creek 5/2
Won FOUR in a row off claim by Rudy Rod, then 4 stakes (3 graded, 2 G1) efforts / Drops into AOC company with stalking style to win here
6-Aqueduct 8f The Tinchen’s Prince Stk 6 – Ruffino 15/1
UPSET SPECIAL! Genuine HFC and HFDst: 5/4-0-0 at AQU and 8/6-1-1 at Dst….would relish the off-going – Steals it or just off the pace!
8-Aqueduct 6f Gr 3 Fall Highweight H’Cap 7 – Emma’s Posse 8/1
Six of the nine in here want the front – sets up for a hotly contested duel, opening the doors for an in-form closer….Emma’s Posse at a price!
1-Hollywood 8.5f Maiden Special 5 – Riveting Reason 6/5
Grade 1 placed (twice!) – set the pace to top of stretch in BC Juv – Double Beyer edge – B.Free Best – MUCH the best in here!
2-Hollywood 8.5f Claiming 5 – Living Our Dream 9/5
Lone multiple winner in the field (non-winners in 2010) and only 2 starts this year, unlike others who are multiple losers in 2010
4-Hollywood 6f Claiming 6 – Tall Texan 3/1
Drops in class and has run well at Hollywood
5-Hollywood Turf 6f AOC 3 – She’s Not A Lion 9/2
Has already won this nw2xAOC level, but gets in by running for a tag today / LOTS of pace to set up her late run / One of few turf sprint winners in here
7-Hollywood 6f Gr 3 Vernon *
Lone speed – Inside speed – LONG gone…… Loves the distance (13/8-0-1) and Hollywood
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