12:25 1st Maiden Claiming 8 ½ furlongs – TURF
Butler Cabin topped our list in his last when encountering trouble. He drops a notch and cuts back from 9 furlongs to 8 ½ furlongs. He looks like a pretty solid investment in here for the always dangerous Frank Calabrese barn. Spring Mix was a neck away from winning in his last, and that effort would put him right on the wire today – hard to swallow his record of SEVENTEEN trips to the post without a win – ouch! Saint Nicholas would be no surprise with his turf record of a win, two seconds and a third. The win was taken away from him in his last when he interfered with the top choice today, Butler Cabin. But what’s more bothersome is that he has failed to deliver as the 2-1 favorite twice, and as the 1-2 favorite twice. That’s a lot of burned tickets to bet him back today.
Selections
Butler Cabin – Spring Mix – Saint Nicholas
The Bet: $5 to win on Butler Cabin
12:53 2nd S tarter Allowance 5 furlongs
Gato Passo is in top form coming off back-to-back victories. He is a pace-presser/stalker by nature and should get an ideal trip saving ground from the rail. Make it three in a row. Woodlander is coming off a dominant win when drawing clear by six widening lengths. Another effort like that and they are all running for second money, but he is winless at today’s super-sprint distance and is ridden by a low percentage jockey. Put It Back Twenty was third to Gato Passo in his last, but has beaten that one previously. Perhaps the “checked at the start” comment is excuse enough to put him on top today.
Selections
Gato Passo – Woodlander – Put It Back Twenty
The Bet: PASS
1:17 3rd Maiden Claiming 8 furlongs
Flying Approval is my very tepid selection in what is the epitome of a “hot dog race.” That is, this would be a good time to go grab a hot dog and simply enjoy the tapestry of thoroughbred racing without investing in the race. Very inconsistent and out of form fillies going a mile makes for a puzzling handicapping exercise. Flying Approval has tried sprinting, turf routing, main track routing, and different class levels. Her narrow loss in her last at 7 panels on the main may set her up for today’s race. Theslayerinthelane was also a narrow loser in her last, when sprinting. Perhaps the close finish will provide a confidence boost, and her sprint speed may put her in position to capitalize on her optimism. Great Bear just missed in his debut two back, sprinting. He has flying late in his last start, his first try at two turns and only the second race of his career. Another step forward puts him on the wire with the other contenders.
Selections
Flying Approval – Theslayerinthelane – Great Bear
1:43 4th Claiming nw2L 8 furlongs – TURF
Albany Indian is a very likely winner today. The 3-year-old filly had run exclusively on grass and was claimed two back by the Calabrese connections. Probably would have been favored and won against a notch tougher, but her South Florida debut was rained off the turf. She returns today, dropping in class, and getting back on the firm ground she wants. She is consistent in her ability – which is superior to her rivals in here. Solid. Dixie Ocean has only been on the grass once, and it was a pretty good pace-pressing effort. With the rail and an unclear pace scenario she could be loose on the lead, or stalking soft fractions here. Kate’s Holiday has had many chances, albeit all against better. She dropped to this level in her last, but it too was rained off the turf. With the return to the grass here, she has the numbers to contend.
Selections
Albany Indian – Dixie Ocean – Kate’s Holiday
The Bet: $10 to win on Albany Indian
2:11 5th Claiming 1 mile/70 yards
Bb Livermore is a hesitant selection in a non-winners in 2010 race. In fact the 8-horse field is a COMBINED 11 for 185 since 2008! YOWZA! Are we at Beulah Park (no personal vendetta intended, but c’mon!). Bb Livermore will either win this handily on the huge class drop (have never raced for a tag – last raced in AOC company), or is completely off the board as the drop is a “fire sale” of a horse gone bad. Flint Mountain owns 5 of the 11 field wins – the problem is they were ALL in 2009; he is a dismal 0-20 in 2010. At least he remembers where the finish line is! Masterofballydoyle is winless in 2010 – but he’s only raced five times, and has been on the board in all five starts.
Selections
Bb Livermore – Flint Mountain – Masterofballydoyle
The Bet: PASS
2:41 6th Maiden Special 6 furlongs
Eight Riders was second in his debut, chasing the highly promising High Class Jeff. Jeff came off that win to win his first level allowance, and is entered in Saturday’s Hollywood Prevue, as one of the top contenders there. Eight Riders has worked well since that outing and will be a fair price with two stakes-placed runners in the gate with him today. Eight Riders, the value play here. Value Added Tax is a double-Beyer advantage horse, almost always an automatic selection! But in a maiden race in particular it’s important to understand that Beyer figures are based on the WINNER’S performance, and so you have to wonder how good Value Added Tax is, on his own merit. Both of his best races, including his second in a stakes, were at Monmouth. Without a local work I’m not willing to take the gamble. The other stakes placed runner in here is Vee’s Accolade. Not only is he stakes-placed, he is THREE-TIME stakes placed having run third to Little Drama in the Frank Gomez, and third twice to Gourmet Dinner in the first two legs of the Florida Stallion Stakes. An interesting longshot to watch is Aim and Fire who is a first-time starter listed at 6/1. Considering two, not one, stakes placed colts, and the presence of Eight Riders, that is a pretty low morning line for a firster…..hmmmmm.
Selections
Eight Riders – Value Added Tax – Vee’s Accolade – Aim and Fire
The Bet: $5 to win on Eight Riders
3:11 7th Maiden Claiming 8 ½ furlongs – TURF
Sorayita has only been out once, and her debut was around two turns on the turf – a difficult task. She stalked the pace in a Maiden Special race that day before tiring late. Her ability to be near the pace gives her an edge over the other top contender in here, and she gets a big rider change to Luis Saez. Comostar is a double-Beyer figure horse, much like Value Added Tax in the 6th. Again, I have the same issue with her numbers as a maiden, but I think her task is also more difficult as a deep closer and to a lesser extent from the far outside post. She’ll need to be much the best considering the potential problems of the trip. Fine Way to Fly also has turf experience, with two runs in Maiden Special company. The drop into the selling ranks might wake her up at a big price.
Selections
Sorayita – Comostar – Fine Way to Fly
The Bet: $5 to win on Sorayita
3:41 8th Claiming 8 furlongs
Coach Gravy, in spite of the outside post, is the pace-setter in here; in fact he’s the LONE speed in here. Should one of the inside runners force the issue, the Coach has shown he can rate just off the pace and win. He looks as solid as they come in here. In fact, today’s one mile distance is his favorite (6/3-0-1). He was a dominant winner at the $5K level and this distance two back before a pace-setting 2nd sprinting at this level. BIG TIME. Stately Character has been facing a much higher price tag of competition, but to be fair, once you go back past the last two races, those “higher priced” races were all against conditioned – non-winners of 2 or 3 lifetime – competition. He can rally here, but his 4/0-0-1 at today’s distance gives you pause to wonder. Livingstonbelle has won three in a row, including two at 1 mile-70 yards, and yet he’s 10-1 on the morning line???? He’s shipping in from Thistledown in Ohio, and shows no works over the local surface. Still, if able to convert his Buckeye form to Calder, he’s a legitimate longshot.
Selections
Coach Gary – Stately Character – Livingstonbelle
The Bet: $15 to win on Coach Gravy
4:10 9th Allowance 8 furlongs – TURF
Almuraad is the runner in here with the most recent WINNING success on the grass. The conditions of today’s event calls for non-winners over a mile other than claiming or starter. That enables the multi-winning Almuraad to run today because his wins were in starter allowance company. He won a money-added allowance going 7 ½ furlongs in his last earning his career-best Beyer – but was then DQ’d. Pointing Star has run three good races in the US and has big Euro numbers…..but only two of his starts have been at a mile. If able to handle the distance, he’s an upset possibility with this group. Nineinthenine has been on the board in 10 of 19 turf starts, including 4 wins. But I’m not comfortable looking at his past performances – going all the way back to June – do not show a SINGLE WIN. Oh my! He certainly has the ability, but he needs to find the wire before I’ll invest in his chances.
Selections
Almuraad – Pointing Star – Nineinthenine
The Bet: PASS
4:40 10th Claiming 8 furlongs
Rarely Wrong has won two in a row while improving his speed figures in three straight. Seems like an obvious selection – but nothing is “obvious” at this bottom level. Rock With You was too late to catch Rarely Wrong in his last, but he is a consistent performer and could reverse the order with a better trip. Beach Drive will be in front on the engine as they turn down the backstretch. The question is, will he be in front when they cross the wire?
Selections
Rarely Wrong – Rock With You – Beach Drive
The Bet: PASS
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