1st Claiming 6 furlongs
Great Victorian drops in class and has a 50% ITM record at Calder. If you go back more than a couple races you will see he is a dangerous front-runner….with the inside post he has a shot to wire this less than formidable field of opponents. Moreapplauseplease ran a near career race in just missing in his last. His deep closing style will require some help up front, but this group is anything but consistent so anything close to his last would be difficult to deny. Duke of Hazard is another that if able to return to former form would be a dangerous threat from just off the pace.
Selections
Great Victorian – Moreapplauseplease – Duke of Hazard
The Bet: PASS
2nd Maiden Claiming 9 furlongs – TURF
Pearlicious is lightly raced and seeks his first turf start. He gets a solid rider upgrade to Luis Saez today. On or off the turf he will be a pace threat with the rail and his race two-back. Like everyone in here, the nine furlongs distance is a question mark. You tell me…….here’s a horse that two back – in April nonetheless – was pulled up after a half mile trailing the entire field….off until November 5 she is beaten by 18 ½ lengths. Today she, Giant’s Kisses, is listed at 8/5 on the morning line! What the…..!!!!! What do “they know” that I don’t? On that morning line alone, I’ll toss her in the mix. Assuming this does stay on turf, Tiger on the Green might be worth a thought at 15/1. She’s well bred for the distance and the grass, but has never been able to make it onto the green stuff in either career start. Maybe today.
Selections
Pearlicious – Giant’s Kisses – Tiger on the Green
The Bet: PASS
3rd Claiming 7 furlongs
Stylish Act gets the nod to pull the upset in here – listed at 8/1 on the ML – as the most prolific performer at today’s 7 furlong distance. The distance is unusual and these races are typically won by runners with experience at winning at the unique nature of the race. Act’s 6/2-1-2 record stands out in here. Bourbon Trail is the 2/1 ML favorite, based I’m sure on the fact he comes out of the Frank Calabrese stable and drops from allowance company. But he lacks the usual angles of a Calabrese runner: 1st off the claim, go-to rider, top trainer, good form to go with the class drop. I think this is a fire-sale and a false favorite – going against and holding my breath! Quick Appeal won a 3L race two back in dominating fashion, then was a distant 4th to a repeat winner vs. open company in his last. With Luis Saez on board I’d expect one of his better efforts today.
Selections
Stylish Act – Bourbon Trail – Quick Appeal
The Bet: PASS
4th Maiden Claiming 8 furlongs
Grove Hall was a late running third in a KEY race sprinting in his last. The stretch-out today should put him closer to the pace and give him a legitimate chance to get his photo taken. Follow the Lead exited the Grove Hall race to run 4th in his stretchout attempt. Perhaps the experience leads to a step forward today. Dutch Cay should sit the garden trip from his inside post stretching out from 7 furlongs. He will get the jump on the top two, but can he hold them off?
Selections
Grove Hall – Follow the Lead – Dutch Cay
The Bet: PASS
5th Allowance 8 furlongs – TURF
Michelle’s Trip was a late-running winner in her turf debut two back, and seemed to relish the grassy going. Should this stay on the turf she appears to be the one to beat. She’ll need the trip and some racing luck, but she’s the obvious choice on the sod. Political Miss won her debut sprinting, came right back to beat winners stretching out. Today she tries a third new scenario – turf. Hard to go against an unbeaten filly. My Precious Baby will be on the front end – she set the pace in the My Dear Girl two back – and on either surface she’ll be the one to run down. Paco Lopez will try to ration her speed.
Selections
Michelle’s Trip – Political Miss – My Precious Baby
The Bet: $5 to win on Michelle’s Trip
6th Maiden Claiming 8 furlongs
Seth’s Toy may offer some value here, 6/1 on the morning line, in spite of the fact that she gets Manny Cruz back in the saddle, and was a clear second in her debut. She was beaten 7 lengths but was 3 clear of the show horse. Bred for a route of ground she stands a good chance to break through into the ranks of winners today. Elusive Lara broke 11th well behind the field, but to her credit she came running late to get up for fourth. Valid Distinction was second in three consecutive one mile races prior to experimenting in a turf race (which was rained off). Perhaps Paco Lopez gets her over the hump.
Selections
Seth’s Toy – Elusive Lara – Valid Distinction
The Bet: $5 to win on Seth’s Toy
7th Starter Allowance 6 furlongs
Tintim Por Tintim obviously had talent before something went wrong in July ’09. Off until September of this year when he returned and was well beaten, badly beaten. He dropped in for a tag and ran competitively at Keeneland before shipping to Calder. His South Florida debut was dynamic as he appears to have returned to form. The question today, is he back? I think he is and his last was a preview of what is to happen today. Lucas Brady presents a similar dilemma – he’s had a stellar 3-year-old season and has run in several stakes races. EVERY allowance event has produced a win for him. So when he returned off a layoff in allowance company in his last he was highly regarded….but he was well beaten. So like Tintim Por Tintim the question is – was his last an indication that he’s off form, or just a bad race? I tend to think he’s off form and the fact he ran poorly in his first try against older isn’t a good sign. Wild Expectations was first off the claim for the Calabrese team in his Calder debut, and he was a winner – albeit by a desperate head. He steps up today from the selling ranks to allowance. I think he may be a false favorite today.
Selections
Tintim Por Tintim – Lucas Brady – Wild Expectations
The Bet: $10 to win on Tintim Por Tintim
8th Claiming nw2L 5 furlongs – TURF
Proper Heiress has shown talent routing on the turf. Her lone sprint was in her dirt debut. But she’s bred for the super sprint distance of today heat. She’s had a series of quick works which tells me this is not a prep, she’s serious today. At 6/1 she’d be a tasty winner here. Traci Lea has run distances and sprints on the grass, and surprisingly one of her quickest pace-setting efforts came after setting a slow pace going a mile then turning back to 5 furlongs. A similar effort today would make her the one to catch. Twentyoneandtwo won her debut sprinting on the turf for Team Calabrese, and now moves to winners in her second race after shipping to South Florida . Seems like several obstacles to overcome, not to mention the new Calabrese handler, but she wouldn’t be a surprise.
Selections
Prper Heiress – Traci Lea – Twentyoneandtwo
The Bet: $10 to win on Proper Heiress
9th AOC 6 furlongs
TODAY’S BEST!
CARPHONIC seems to have landed in a perfect spot today. She’s lightly raced and second off the shelf. She debuted last year with back-to-back wins, the second being in a state-bred stakes. She was ambitiously placed in Gulfstream’s Old Hat stakes, then went to the shelf for ten months before rallying for third in her return four weeks ago. She’s worked sharply since and would be a solid selection on this alone; however today she faces several foes who are OBVIOUSLY better suited to front-running at five furlongs. This should make for a contested pace duel, with runners on the lead who are distance-challenged even if there wasn’t pace pressure. This all plays right into her hands, and if ready to make the anticipated step forward, she’s a solid selection at a more than fair price (6/1 on the morning line). Grazioso ships toSouth Florida for the always dangerous Team Calabrese. However when she tried dirt, as the 8/5 favorite at minor league track Indiana Downs (no diss to the Hoosier folk) she flopped miserably. I see her overbet today, and a very vulnerable favorite. Landing My Way ran a huge number in her last when up in the final strides. However she has consistently shown that she’s an upper-70s Beyer runner, so I believe that 90 in the last was an aberration. Casual handicappers will probably see the number as an indication of talent, and bet her heavily.
CARPHONIC seems to have landed in a perfect spot today. She’s lightly raced and second off the shelf. She debuted last year with back-to-back wins, the second being in a state-bred stakes. She was ambitiously placed in Gulfstream’s Old Hat stakes, then went to the shelf for ten months before rallying for third in her return four weeks ago. She’s worked sharply since and would be a solid selection on this alone; however today she faces several foes who are OBVIOUSLY better suited to front-running at five furlongs. This should make for a contested pace duel, with runners on the lead who are distance-challenged even if there wasn’t pace pressure. This all plays right into her hands, and if ready to make the anticipated step forward, she’s a solid selection at a more than fair price (6/1 on the morning line). Grazioso ships to
Selections
CARPHONIC – Grazioso – Landing My Way
The Bet: $20 to win on CARPHONIC
10th Claiming nw2L 6 furlongs
Trust me, there are no future stakes stars in the gate for the finale today……I’ll Win If I Can is appropriately the selection for the 10th. All of the runners, at best, are “hopeful” selections – it’s a good day to leave early if you’re on track today! But, “Win” was a dominant winner out of the maiden ranks two back, and is relatively lightly raced. She tried $25K 2L company in her first against winners and showed competitive speed for a quarter mile. That may be all the edge she needs today. Carsoncitycounty was a late-running maiden winner in her next to last, and she fits the profile of the type of runner I typically prefer in these conditioned claimers…..never seen the condition. However her last, though against starter allowance company, was only her first against winners – but what is bothersome is that it was her 11th start, meaning it took TEN tries to break out. Hmmm, not liking that tendency. Nice Cookie sends mixed signals – her connections thought enough to send her into stakes company (although why, coming off a 9th by 16 beating, is beyond me). And her last, against nw2L for a $25K tag resulted in her being eased…..that can’t be good.
Selections
I’ll Win If I Can – Carsoncitycounty – Nice Cookie
The Bet: PASS
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