Nov 28 Recap - Updated Records

November 27 Recap - Sunday Nov 28 Selections

Sunday November 28

12:25    1^st         Claiming                      8 furlongs                                                                                                        

Asiatic Pearl drops into this nw2Y category for the first time out of open company, and first off the claim.  Draw a line through the last when far back in a very slow-paced affair, and any of the previous five speed figures would win here by daylight.  Looks good if he can get any kind of pace to target.  Dance For Zack is an interesting proposition, as he too comes first off the claim, but he won THIS CONDITION in his last…..in spite of being eligible for a nw1Y, he won a 2Y race.  A repeat of that effort, which be within his reach as he was a relatively consistent 8/3-1-1.  Fantastic Lisa goes to the front when routing, and comes out of a 5 ½ furlong sprint, so that would appear to be her strategy today.  Could get brave if able to slow down the pace.

Selections

Asiatic Pearl – Dance For Zack – Fantastic Lisa

The Bet:  $5 to win on Asiatic Pearl

12:49       2^nd     Maiden Special           8 ½ furlongs – TURF                                                                                        

Blue Angel Express has paired Beyers in her last two, her only turf runs.  She may be ready to make a move forward today and could be dangerous on the drop from state-stakes to Maiden Special company.  High On Kitten made a bid, then gave way in her turf debut as the 5/2 favorite.  Has the best turf numbers and gets a rider change to Eibar Coa – one more chance.  Evil Queen exited back-to-back stakes efforts on the main to run 3^rd in a MSW on the turf in her last – ironically the race High On Kitten faded in. 

Selections

Blue Angel Express – High On Kitten – Evil Queen

The Bet:  $5 to win on Blue Angel Express

1:14         3^rd     Starter Allowance        5 ½ furlongs                                                                                                    

My Pal Chrisy rallied strongly to break her maiden in $25K company in her last.  The two rail runners look to duel each other into submission and set up her late run.  Dreaming of Donato won his debut for Team Calabrese from off the pace.  Though, it appears the field was weak as the internal and final times were slow.  Still, might be good enough to beat this group.  No More Yogi’s appears to be the speed of the speed.  If able to dispose of her pace rivals she could be dangerous on the front end.

Selections

My Pal Chrisy – Dreaming of Donato – No More Yogi’s

The Bet:  PASS

1:40         4^th     Maiden Claiming         6 furlongs                                                                                                        

Princess Della was a well-beaten 6^th in her debut, in late August, however it was in Maiden Special company.  She is the lone MSW dropper in this bottom-level maiden seller….and that alone makes her a contender.  She shows three works since and might have enough “talent” to win today at a fair price.  Miss Unbridled’s has the best current form, having run a good second at this level in her last.  But the 0 for 13 record does not inspire much confidence.  Holy Bling has run three of four lifetime starts for a higher tag, without much success.  But the one try at this level was a dueling pace effort when settling for third….maybe with these.

Selections

Princess Della – Miss Unbridled’s – Holy Bling

The Bet:  PASS

2:05         5^th     Claiming                      7 furlongs                                                                                                        

Super Girlie has run well at the distance (3/0-2-1), but against better company.  She was the 2/1 favorite in her last when dropping to this level for the first time, but was coming off a two month break which probably explains her lack of finishing punch when second.  Jockey Manoel Cruz is enlisted again, and he’s a 26% rider for the barn.  Crown Glory has won 3 of 4 starts at the unique 7 furlong distance, and earns the upset nod in here today.  Her lone defeat at the distance was to today’s rival, Ready to Mambo who is stuck on the AE list.  With four wins in her last six starts (3 at 7 panels, one at 6 ½) she has earned successively better Beyers.  She is in-form, loves the distance, and will be in position at the top of the lane to be in contention.  Blackjack Beauty has earned three Beyers in the 70’s, which would win today….but all were around two turns.  Her one try at the distance was a near-miss 2^nd.  She offers little value however at 7/2 on the morning line.

Selections

Super Girlie – Crown Glory – Blackjack Beauty

The Bet:  $10 to win on Super Girlie

2:31         6^th     Maiden Claiming         5 furlongs                                                                                                        

D’Dream may be the right price play in here, as it appears the logical choices have vulnerability issues.  D’Dream is lightly raced, only two starts, and both came against better – so the drop in class should move him up.  He goes turf to dirt, adds blinkers, and goes for a $20K tag out of MSW company in his last.  In addition, his debut – for $40K – saw him right on the pace through a :45.4 half – quick enough to be in front with this group.  At 6/1 on the morning line, he’s a good value play today.  Barry K is the obvious chalk having just run 2^nd against a notch better ($25K).  However he appears to be the prototypical “play against” favorite as he’s run 2^nd in two straight, and 3^rd in his other two while being the beaten favorite in his last three at odds of 4/5, 3/5, and 4/5 successively.  He could win, but not with my money.  Close It Out is another price alternative to logical contenders Bull Dozer, City Genius, and Deal in the Lot.  He is a first time starter out of a barn that wins with 18% of those at an ROI of $3.75!

Selections

D’Dream – Barry K – Close It Out

The Bet:  $5 to win on D’Dream

3:01         7^th     Claiming                      8 ½ furlongs – TURF                                                                                        

C C Cerada is 10/4-3-0 on the grass, and goes out for Team Calabrese today.  He’s lost his last two, including his South Florida debut to today’s pace rival Dream With Us.  However in both his last two he was a fast-closing 2^nd to lose in photos going one mile….today the distance is 1 1/16^th mile – a distance at which Dream With Us is 11/0-3-1!  The taste of revenge is sweet today!  Sky Cap should get a perfect pocket trip and is a good price play.  However his form is inconsistent and in spite of his stalking style he’s been beaten by several of today’s rivals – both pace rivals and closers.  Finally, Ventania would not be a surprise, again at a fair price.  Paco Lopez has a habit of moving up horses, at a price, in spite of being one of the better local riders when in town – either here or Gulfstream.  Ventania is 4/2-0-1 at the distance and rallies from mid-pack.  However his two most recent wins were against 2L and 3L company.

Selections

CC Cerada – Sky Cap – Ventania

The Bet:  $10 to win on CC Cerada

3:31         8^th     AOC                             7 furlongs                                                                                                        

Put Me First sports an excellent 2 wins at 3 tries going the 7 furlong journey.  But what really appeals about this Manny Cruz-guided filly is that she was a DOMINANT winner at this first level allowance level, and has run her last two races against nw2x company.  She gets to run at this condition by being entered for the $16K tag today.  Looks solid.  Rosebud’s Ridge looks to be the controlling speed, and if left alone on an easy lead she could prove dangerous on the front end.  Heirness was a debut winner at 7/5, and has worked quickly since then, including a bullet in her latest.  Might be good enough to step up and beat winners right away.

Selections

Put Me First – Rosebud’s Ridge – Heirness

The Bet:  $10 to win on Put Me First

4:00         9^th     AOC                             8 ½ furlongs – TURF                                                                                        

Firey Red is a logical contender coming off two seconds and a third in four starts at major tracks:  Keeneland, Saratoga, and Hollywood.  She is fresh and doesn’t seem to be meeting any turf giants in here today.  Margaret Smile has the best numbers of the locals, but her 7/1-4-0 turf record is not inspiring.  Simply Impressive has the rail and is a confirmed front-runner in a race lacking an obvious pace-setter.  Good enough to steal it under Luis Saez.

Selections

Firey Red – Margared Smile – Simply Impressive

The Bet:  PASS

4:30         10^th    Maiden Claiming         6 furlongs                                                                                                        

Skating Home closes the weekend at a price.  A first-time starter from an 18% FTS barn, she’s as good as any of the vulnerable contenders who’ve proven they cannot win at this bottom level.  Delightful Dee will set sail on the lead, and has the numbers to carry her speed.  But the fact she has already been run down twelve times, I see her as a “bet against” favorite.  Real Fortuna has shown the ability to pass horses through the stretch, so if the firster isn’t good enough, she’s the most logical to run down the faint-hearted front runner.

Selections

Skating Home – Delightful Dee – Real Fortuna

The Bet:  PASS



Nov 27 Calder-Simulcast Selections

Simulcast Selections

2:42 - Aqueduct 7th:  Grade 2 Remsen Stakes - 9 furlongs - To Honor And Serve (x3)

3:10 - Aqueduct 8th:  Grade 1 Gazelle Stakes - 9 furlongs - No Such Word

5:42 - Churchill Downs 11th:  Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club - 8 1/2 furlongs - Astrology (x2)

6:35 - Hollywood Park 7th:  Grade 3 Generous Stakes - 8 furlongs-Turf - Comma To The Top (x4)

7:30 - Hollywood Park 9th:  Grade 2 Citation Handicap - 8 1/2 furlongs-Turf - Court Vision (x2)

Nevada Stuns Boise State: Nov 26

Friday November 26 Results - Saturday Selections

Had two winners from five selections - a flat bet profit on the day!

Michelle's Trip got the best trip on the rail to win the 5th

Tintim Por Tintim was much the best in the 7th

Saturday's Selections:

Saturday November 27

12:25    1^st         Claiming nw2L             7 furlongs                                                                                                       

Boogie Woogie kicks off the opener today as a timid selection in a field that is a combined 9 for 162 (9 horse field) – and they have ALL been beaten but one, who’s broke his maiden in his 11^th try – YIKES!  The angle which draws our attention to the Boogie Man is that he at least has not raced for low of a tag.  He was claimed two back and gets a new rider today, Manny Cruz.  Holiday Ashley has run her last three races at the unique 7 furlong distance and has run 3^rd, then 2^nd, and topped off the series with a win – all against bottom level maiden claimers.  Shotgun Donna is lightly raced, and she is trying a one-turn main track event for the first time.  She was just up in time two back, then was well-beaten in her first try against winners, at this level.  Perhaps the turnback will benefit her today.

Selections

Boogie Woogie – Holiday Ashley – Shotgun Donna

The Bet:  PASS

12:50    2^nd        Maiden Claiming          5 furlongs – TURF                                                                                           

Hoping this stays on the grass, but we did have a very light and brief shower Wednesday night, so you never know at Calder……wow……but if it is on the grass, No Peace At All gets the nod.  Shipped to Woodbine for his fourth career start, he was odds-on in MSW company on the poly-surface.  He dueled to the stretch, was briefly clear, and then weakened late.  Assuming that he will handle the turf in a similar fashion to the synthetic he should give a good account of himself here today.  Ridden by Paco Lopez who is gearing up for Gulfstream, and first time out of the David Fawkes barn, a 17% angle (27% when fresh like today!).  Wise Connection was a good 4^th in his last turf start, at 50-1, and he was steadied in mid-stretch – the problem is, that was LAST December.  Is he ready for today?  Stamen ran a good 4^th as well on the turf sprinting here, but it was a year ago October!  He was off from December ’09 until three weeks ago, where he showed speed in a turf sprint before understandably weakening.  With one under his belt he should be better today.

Selections

No Peace At All – Wise Connection – Stamen

The Bet:  $5 to win on No Peace At All (turf or dirt)

1:15      3^rd        Claiming nw2L             1 mile / 70 yards                                                                                              

Indy’s Pride may prove a front-winning victor here as no one, and I mean NO ONE wants the lead.  Indy broke his maiden going a similar distance (1 mile) by going to the front for this rider, and never looking back.  If he makes an easy lead, he should be LONG gone today.  Easily Distracted apparently IS easily distracted as he’s broken slowly in both career starts.  However, when stretched to two turns in his last he rallied – from 15 lengths off the pace – to break his maiden.  A closer position to the field would be beneficial today.  Sheer Joy broke his maiden in his debut, closing “with a rush” reads the comment, when closing from 11^th – some 11 lengths back when sprinting.  He came faced 2L winners in his last, but for a higher tag.  Perhaps the drop and the potential for improvement with experience can get the job done today.

Selections

Indy’s Pride – Easily Distracted – Sheer Joy

The Bet:  $5 to win on Indy’s Pride

1:41      4^th        Maiden Claiming          5 ½ furlongs                                                                                                    

Happy Touch is the “against the grain” selection here.  Niki’s Ice will be on everyone’s ticket based on her superior speed figures and close finish in her last.  However, a more careful examination shows Niki has been runner-up in three straight – every race of her career!  She was clear by five lengths in her debut, and faltered; then went off at 9/5 as the chalk and dueled, only to falter;  then in her last she was 4/5 and led by 3 in mid-stretch….and faltered.  Where as Happy Touch makes her first start today, and her in late October when firing a near bullet out of the gate tells me she’s got some talent.  Trippi’s Valentine showed good speed vs. much better in her debut before tiring badly.  It’s the classic “Early speed – Class drop” angle.

Selections

Happy Touch – Niki’s Ice – Trippi’s Valentine

The Bet:  PASS

2:06      5^th        Starter Allowance         9 furlongs – TURF                                                                                           

Marquet Cat the most accomplished turf runner here, assuming it stays on the grass.  He may have company on the front end, but he has never failed to make the lead.  Figuring Paco Lopez gets in front, slows it down and hangs on based on back class. 

Livingston Street

has back class, a top rider in Luis Saez, and a chance to upset with a late run if the pace is contested.  May be the one at a fair price.  John Johny Jak was the upset pick 7 days ago, and he wheels right back.  With the rail, a bug rider, and a front-running win in his last, he may be thinking theft again.

Selections

Marquet Cat –

Livingston Street

– John Johny Jak

The Bet:  $5 to win on Marquet Cat

2:33      6^th        Claiming                      5 ½ furlongs                                                                                                    

Of All Times comes off a first-off-the-barn switch win for Team Calabrese.  And in this field of hapless losers, that is good enough for a tepid nod for first run to the wire.  Paster’s Bad Habit also has good recent form, having scored by open lengths against non-winners 1x in a year; takes the logical step to non-winners 2x in a year today.  Considering that was his first win since at least early October 2009, I’ll go against any semblance of consistency with a 2^nd consecutive win here.  Fivenineteen has not won since the Gulfstream meet, however he has only been out 7 times – much fewer losses than any other runner today.

Selections

Of All Times – Paster’s Bad Habit – Fivenineteen

The Bet:  PASS

3:00      7^th        Claiming                      8 furlongs                                                                                                       

Bridled Quest ran in a nw1Y three back and was a dominant winner at 5/2.  Stepped up into back-to-back starter allowance company.  He ran competitively in both those, but now drops back into conditioned company (nw2Y) today.  He looks best in here.  Brother Joey will probably set sail on the engine today – he was loose on the lead in his last and just failed to last going a 16^th further that day.  The slightly shorter run to the wire may be all he needs.  Mz’s Don Zulon was switched to the Calabrese barn and trainer Nick Canani for his last, and was 2^nd to $15K 3L company at Arlington.  He goes to the Luis Ramirez barn for Calabrese today, and drops into a softer spot.  He’s a likely favorite.

Selections

Bridled Quest – Brother Joey – Mz’s Don Zulon

The Bet:  $10 to win on Bridled Quest

3:39      8^th        AOC                             7 ½ furlongs - TURF                                                                                        

Manhattan Fox has run very strongly in all but one race since coming to North America for Christophe Clemente.  The problem is that those races have produced a 6/0-1-3 record.  Jersey Joe Bravo is in town to ride for Clemente today, and this appears to be an ideal spot to get his first win state-side.  Barra D’Oro may clear the field, and if able to set an uncontested pace, could wire this short turf route.  Later Gater is an old veteran who’s won nearly 30% of his turf starts, and it’s never a good idea to ignore a proven turf winner.

Selections

Manhatta Fox – Barra D’Oro – Later Gater

The Bet:  $5 to win on Manhattan Fox

3:57         9^th     Claiming nw2L             5 ½ furlongs                                                                                                    

Ashley’s Code leads a very weak group to the post today.  She has 10 in-the-money finishes from 14 starts, and won just three back.  She was a photo-finish loser in her last at this level going a 16^th farther;  she is the most in-form runner here, and with the rail might find this group to her liking for her 2^nd career win.  Pay Your Way is the lone dropper out of non-classified competition, but it’s been my experience that even the allowance company at Suffolk Downs is suspect, so I tend to discount Pay’s form.  Still, never seen the 2L tag has to count for something.  Sexy Thunder like so many others has a dismal record (18/1-1-2), but she did show speed for a half going 6 panels.  Maybe the shortened distance will allow her to hang on here.

Selections

Ashley’s Code – Pay Your Way – Sexy Thunder

The Bet:  PASS

4:25         10^th    Maiden Special            1 mile / 70 yards                                                                                              

Cool Red Blue Hot was a sizzling second with a HUGE Beyer of 96 in his debut, missing in a photo at Belmont.  He ships to Calder for his winter racing for Angel Penna who wins 20% of his 2^nd time starters.  If this colt is anything close to the debut run, he wins by open lengths.  Always a little suspicious of a big number for a maiden in a non-winning effort, but this looks solid to me.  Relampago is a first-timer for a 20% FTS winning barn; though it should be noted they are 0-for-3 debuting at a mile or more.  He has been working steadily since June, so you know they have been shopping for just the right spot.  Should the top one falter, he may be a bit of a price as an alternative.  Hal drops out of a good 4^th in stakes company, however you have to feel a little uneasy about his 0-for-15 career mark……OUCH!

Selections

Cool Red Blue Hot – Relampago – Hal

The Bet:  $15 to win on Cool Red Blue Hot

4:54         11^th    AOC                             7 ½ furlongs – TURF                                                                                       

Marcello has run in six consecutive stakes (4 of them graded) since winning his first level allowance.  He has good form on the grass, and meets much, MUCH easier company today.  He should sit a great pocket trip behind a wall of front runners who will set the race up for someone with a finishing punch.  My bet is that Marcello gets the jump on the deep closers, and will have a much smoother trip – not having to worry about traffic behind tiring rivals.  Class tells on grass - looks solid under Luis Saez.  Nineinthenine would be the beneficiary of a hot pace, IF the deep closer can get smooth sailing and Marcello is too close to the pace.  El Commodore could be the fly in the ointment – he is one of many front running types, BUT…….. he has the rail, and has NEVER been headed at the first call.  If able to quickly establish the lead, slow the pace down, and find something for the stretch, the Commodore could be the one here.

Selections

Marcello – Nineinthenine – El Commodore

The Bet:  $10 to win on Marcello

5:21         12^th    Maiden Claiming          6 furlongs                                                                                                       

Impressive Storm is the upset pick in the “get-out” race for Saturday….in fact, I’d recommend you “get out” just after cashing your tickets on the 11^th, as this bottom maiden claimer is full of runners who have little if anything going for them.  At least Impressive Storm has never had the opportunity to lose, being he’s a firster.  He will also be a price as he goes for a 1-for-15 barn, who is winless with first-timers and is ridden by a 1-24 jockey.  The fact that these factors “make him” the top pick should tell you something about this race!  Unbridled Sword deserves to be the luke-warm favorite as he’s only been out once, and that was a troubled trip.  He broke dead last, made his way to with 3 lengths of the lead before being checked at the 16^th pole.  The favorite I think, but the barn is winless, and the rider is from out of town, also winless at the Tropical stand.  Bringithomebruce would be a solid favorite off his debut when he was a race-long dueling 2^nd.  The problem is that race was in July……2009!

Selections

Impressive Storm – Unbridled Sword – Bringithomebruce

The Bet:  PASS





Thanksgiving Recap - Simulcast WINS! / Nov. 26 Selections

12:25    1^st         Claiming         6 furlongs                                                                                                                   

Great Victorian drops in class and has a 50% ITM record at Calder.  If you go back more than a couple races you will see he is a dangerous front-runner….with the inside post he has a shot to wire this less than formidable field of opponents.  Moreapplauseplease ran a near career race in just missing in his last.  His deep closing style will require some help up front, but this group is anything but consistent so anything close to his last would be difficult to deny.   Duke of Hazard is another that if able to return to former form would be a dangerous threat from just off the pace.

Selections

Great Victorian – Moreapplauseplease – Duke of Hazard

The Bet:  PASS

12:50    2^nd        Maiden Claiming      9 furlongs – TURF                                                                                           

Pearlicious is lightly raced and seeks his first turf start.  He gets a solid rider upgrade to Luis Saez today.  On or off the turf he will be a pace threat with the rail and his race two-back.  Like everyone in here, the nine furlongs distance is a question mark.  You tell me…….here’s a horse that two back – in April nonetheless – was pulled up after a half mile trailing the entire field….off until November 5 she is beaten by 18 ½ lengths.  Today she, Giant’s Kisses, is listed at 8/5 on the morning line!  What the…..!!!!!  What do “they know” that I don’t?  On that morning line alone, I’ll toss her in the mix.  Assuming this does stay on turf, Tiger on the Green might be worth a thought at 15/1.  She’s well bred for the distance and the grass, but has never been able to make it onto the green stuff in either career start.  Maybe today.

Selections

Pearlicious – Giant’s Kisses – Tiger on the Green

The Bet:  PASS

1:15      3^rd        Claiming      7 furlongs                                                                                                       

Stylish Act gets the nod to pull the upset in here – listed at 8/1 on the ML – as the most prolific performer at today’s 7 furlong distance.  The distance is unusual and these races are typically won by runners with experience at winning at the unique nature of the race.  Act’s 6/2-1-2 record stands out in here.  Bourbon Trail is the 2/1 ML favorite, based I’m sure on the fact he comes out of the Frank Calabrese stable and drops from allowance company.  But he lacks the usual angles of a Calabrese runner:  1^st off the claim, go-to rider, top trainer, good form to go with the class drop.  I think this is a fire-sale and a false favorite – going against and holding my breath!  Quick Appeal won a 3L race two back in dominating fashion, then was a distant 4^th to a repeat winner vs. open company in his last.  With Luis Saez on board I’d expect one of his better efforts today.

Selections

Stylish Act – Bourbon Trail – Quick Appeal

The Bet:  PASS

1:41      4^th        Maiden Claiming    8 furlongs                                                                                                       

Grove Hall was a late running third in a KEY race sprinting in his last.  The stretch-out today should put him closer to the pace and give him a legitimate chance to get his photo taken.  Follow the Lead exited the Grove Hall race to run 4^th in his stretchout attempt.  Perhaps the experience leads to a step forward today.  Dutch Cay should sit the garden trip from his inside post stretching out from 7 furlongs.  He will get the jump on the top two, but can he hold them off?

Selections

Grove Hall – Follow the Lead – Dutch Cay

The Bet:  PASS

2:06      5^th        Allowance   8 furlongs – TURF                                                                                           

Michelle’s Trip was a late-running winner in her turf debut two back, and seemed to relish the grassy going.  Should this stay on the turf she appears to be the one to beat.  She’ll need the trip and some racing luck, but she’s the obvious choice on the sod.  Political Miss won her debut sprinting, came right back to beat winners stretching out.  Today she tries a third new scenario – turf.  Hard to go against an unbeaten filly.  My Precious Baby will be on the front end – she set the pace in the My Dear Girl two back – and on either surface she’ll be the one to run down.  Paco Lopez will try to ration her speed.

Selections

Michelle’s Trip – Political Miss – My Precious Baby

The Bet:  $5 to win on Michelle’s Trip

2:33      6^th        Maiden Claiming      8 furlongs                                                                                                       

Seth’s Toy may offer some value here, 6/1 on the morning line, in spite of the fact that she gets Manny Cruz back in the saddle, and was a clear second in her debut.  She was beaten 7 lengths but was 3 clear of the show horse.  Bred for a route of ground she stands a good chance to break through into the ranks of winners today.  Elusive Lara broke 11^th well behind the field, but to her credit she came running late to get up for fourth.  Valid Distinction was second in three consecutive one mile races prior to experimenting in a turf race (which was rained off).  Perhaps Paco Lopez gets her over the hump.

Selections

Seth’s Toy – Elusive Lara – Valid Distinction

The Bet:  $5 to win on Seth’s Toy

3:00      7^th        Starter Allowance         6 furlongs                                                                                                       

Tintim Por Tintim obviously had talent before something went wrong in July ’09.  Off until September of this year when he returned and was well beaten, badly beaten.  He dropped in for a tag and ran competitively at Keeneland before shipping to Calder.  His South Florida debut was dynamic as he appears to have returned to form.  The question today, is he back?  I think he is and his last was a preview of what is to happen today.  Lucas Brady presents a similar dilemma – he’s had a stellar 3-year-old season and has run in several stakes races.  EVERY allowance event has produced a win for him.  So when he returned off a layoff in allowance company in his last he was highly regarded….but he was well beaten.  So like Tintim Por Tintim the question is – was his last an indication that he’s off form, or just a bad race?  I tend to think he’s off form and the fact he ran poorly in his first try against older isn’t a good sign.  Wild Expectations was first off the claim for the Calabrese team in his Calder debut, and he was a winner – albeit by a desperate head.  He steps up today from the selling ranks to allowance.  I think he may be a false favorite today.

Selections

Tintim Por Tintim – Lucas Brady – Wild Expectations

The Bet:  $10 to win on Tintim Por Tintim

3:29      8^th        Claiming nw2L      5 furlongs – TURF                                                                                           

Proper Heiress has shown talent routing on the turf.  Her lone sprint was in her dirt debut.  But she’s bred for the super sprint distance of today heat.  She’s had a series of quick works which tells me this is not a prep, she’s serious today.  At 6/1 she’d be a tasty winner here.  Traci Lea has run distances and sprints on the grass, and surprisingly one of her quickest pace-setting efforts came after setting a slow pace going a mile then turning back to 5 furlongs.  A similar effort today would make her the one to catch.  Twentyoneandtwo won her debut sprinting on the turf for Team Calabrese, and now moves to winners in her second race after shipping to South Florida.  Seems like several obstacles to overcome, not to mention the new Calabrese handler, but she wouldn’t be a surprise.

Selections

Prper Heiress – Traci Lea – Twentyoneandtwo

The Bet:  $10 to win on Proper Heiress

3:57      9^th        AOC             6 furlongs                                                                                                       

TODAY’S BEST!
CARPHONIC seems to have landed in a perfect spot today.  She’s lightly raced and second off the shelf.  She debuted last year with back-to-back wins, the second being in a state-bred stakes.  She was ambitiously placed in Gulfstream’s Old Hat stakes, then went to the shelf for ten months before rallying for third in her return four weeks ago.  She’s worked sharply since and would be a solid selection on this alone; however today she faces several foes who are OBVIOUSLY better suited to front-running at five furlongs.  This should make for a contested pace duel, with runners on the lead who are distance-challenged even if there wasn’t pace pressure.  This all plays right into her hands, and if ready to make the anticipated step forward, she’s a solid selection at a more than fair price (6/1 on the morning line).  Grazioso ships to South Florida for the always dangerous Team Calabrese.  However when she tried dirt, as the 8/5 favorite at minor league track Indiana Downs (no diss to the Hoosier folk) she flopped miserably.  I see her overbet today, and a very vulnerable favorite.  Landing My Way ran a huge number in her last when up in the final strides.  However she has consistently shown that she’s an upper-70s Beyer runner, so I believe that 90 in the last was an aberration.  Casual handicappers will probably see the number as an indication of talent, and bet her heavily.

Selections

CARPHONIC – Grazioso – Landing My Way

The Bet:  $20 to win on CARPHONIC

4:25      10^th       Claiming nw2L       6 furlongs                                                                                                       

Trust me, there are no future stakes stars in the gate for the finale today……I’ll Win If I Can is appropriately the selection for the 10^th.  All of the runners, at best, are “hopeful” selections – it’s a good day to leave early if you’re on track today!  But, “Win” was a dominant winner out of the maiden ranks two back, and is relatively lightly raced.  She tried $25K 2L company in her first against winners and showed competitive speed for a quarter mile.  That may be all the edge she needs today.  Carsoncitycounty was a late-running maiden winner in her next to last, and she fits the profile of the type of runner I typically prefer in these conditioned claimers…..never seen the condition.  However her last, though against starter allowance company, was only her first against winners – but what is bothersome is that it was her 11^th start, meaning it took TEN tries to break out.  Hmmm, not liking that tendency.  Nice Cookie sends mixed signals – her connections thought enough to send her into stakes company (although why, coming off a 9^th by 16 beating, is beyond me).  And her last, against nw2L for a $25K tag resulted in her being eased…..that can’t be good.

Selections

I’ll Win If I Can – Carsoncitycounty – Nice Cookie

The Bet:  PASS