Wednesday Jan 26 Selections

Wednesday January 26

1:29      2-Gulfstream                5.5f       Maiden Claiming                     2 – Archrival                            5/2                   

Wesley Ward first timers score 17% and when jockey Jeffrey Sanchez is up they win at a 38% with a $3.50 ROI!  Working sharply since before the holidays.  Not a lot to beat unless another of the firsters are special

1:58      3-Gulfstream    Off Turf 8f         Claiming                                  7 – Bracket Buster                    4/1                   

Improved by leaps and bounds when stretched from a sprint to a one-turn mile at Churchill and dropping in for an $80K tag.  Sat mid-pack, stalking the pace and drew clear through the lane that mid-November afternoon.  McPeek trainee should get a similar trip today under Leparoux who is winning over 22% for McPeek, including big stakes score Saturday.  Only knock is that today is first try against winners – I see this as a wash due to the fact that the weather sends the few multiple winners from the turf to the main, and only one other rival has had success at a one-turn mile.

2:27      4-Gulfstream                8f         Maiden Claiming                     6 – Awesomo                           3/1*             

Lone MSW dropper goes for Mott-Desormeaux.  Might get a bit of a price as Mott’s reputation is with horses on the turf, not off the turf as this runner disappointed on grass.  Also Mott not generally known for horses for a tag, but statistics show he wins 22% of MdClm runners at a $2.09 ROI!  Barn is also much sharper with second time starters (like today).

2:55      5-Gulfstream    Off Turf 5f         AOC                                         9 – Gangsterontherun              2/1**             

Main Track Only runner should have these over a barrel if this does indeed comes off the turf.  Was impressive enough in New York to go off as the 8/5 favorite in the Spectacular Bid in his first 3-yo start.  Has set a wicked pace in both his maiden win and the stakes try;  in spite of those splits, under pressure, he was only beaten 2 lengths for all the money.  Ward is 32% with ROI of $2.83 with 2^nd off the shelf runners.  Also adds shades today, a 22% angle with another positive ROI ($2.48).  Would be odd-on if this were scheduled on the dirt, but facing a turf runners on the main gives him a bigger edge.

4:23      8-Gulfstream    Off Turf 8f         Allowance                               13 – Christmas For Liam          5/2                   

Main track only Pletcher layoff runner ran HUGE at a 1-turn mile at Belmont.  Debuted here at 7f and was a good 3^rd after trouble at the start – a courageous effort for a first time starter.  Interestingly he was ridden that day by today’s jock, Joe Bravo.  After his 93 Beyer in his maiden win he was the favorite against a solid field of winners stretching to 8.5f, but finished 3^rd after running wide.  Working strongly for Pletcher and would be surprised if he doesn’t take this field down on the main strip.

4:52      9-Gulfstream    Off Turf 8f         Maiden Claiming                     13 – Carietta                            3/1                   

Lightly raced Zito 3-year-old filly has tried one-turn miles on the main track at Belmont and this winter here, at Gulfstream.  In spite of morning line we may get a fair price as her form is colored.  Two back, when going a mile at Belmont she was beaten over 13 lengths – but, the winner was clear by 12 and the runner-up came back to score (Carietta was 4^th that day).  Off from that October race until January 7 she went in a one-turn mile here in MSW company and again was well beaten, losing by over 15 lengths and running 6^th.  But what you have to look carefully at in that race is again, the winner’s margin was only 1 ½ lengths, but the place horse was 10 ¾ clear of the show horse.  So in spite of being 6^th by 15+ she only missed the show dough by about three lengths.  The one-turn mile experience, the fact she’s entered “MTO,” and the drop from MSW to first-time-tagged today all point her out as a likely winner in the finale.

Thursday January 27

12:55    1-Gulfstream                7f         Maiden Claiming                     4 – Won Fast Bullet                  3/1                   

Bullet debuts today for trainer Michael Mareina, who is not a big name here, but has won 33% of his starts so far, and is an excellent 30% when jockey Jesus Castanon climbs on board – as he does today.  Mareina wins with 18% of his first-timers at an exceptional $3.09, and has won at a 40% rate with debut maiden claimers.  Castanon has a super $3.60 ROI when on for this barn; and lastly he has been burning up the track in the morning – looks solid today.

2:27      4-Gulfstream    Off Turf 5f         AOC                                         1 – Coach Billy G                     8/1                   

With lots of rain in the forecast it would appear likely that this will come off the grass today.  It’s interesting that Julian Leparoux is named to ride both halves of the entry, and the other half – Bergerac – shows nothing but turf outings, and Coach Billy G show 7 out of 8 starts on the main….my guess is that should this be run on the main track Coach Billy G will go.  He’s bred all over for off-tracks (440 Tomlinson) and will probably be a bit of a price as his last race is colored by the fact that he broke poorly, first off the shelf, and little opportunity to run his race.  He shows speed to take the lead if no one else wants it, but he also shows some finishing punch, which – depending on who scratches – would be beneficial here.

3:25      6-Gulfstream    Off Turf  9f         Maiden Special                       5 – Skating                               8/1                   

Todd Pletcher first time starter who is a 400+ off-track runner with a distance rating of 400+ also.  Pletcher has another runner entered, but she looks to be strictly a turf runner.  My guess is that that one will scratch and Skating will run.  Automatic selection when Pletcher has a 3-yo first timer at Gulfstream!

4:23      8-Gulfstream    Off Turf 8f         Allowance                               12 – Golden Galleon                6/1**            

TODAY’S BEST!  Almost certain to come off the grass, it appears that every one of the runners slated to go in here are turf (or synthetic) runners…… with the exception of Golden Galleon who has never tried the turf.  Galleon has also raced at the one-turn mile distance, HERE, last winter.  He’s been working steadily since that multi-KEY race last spring.  Adding to the appeal à he can run on the lead or can stalk the lead, so who scratches and the changing pace scenario won’t compromise his chances.  In addition…..he goes for Todd Pletcher off the shelf (21%), and JJ Castellano rides (30% for Pletcher).  Looks MUCH the best of these today.

4:52      9-Gulfstream    Off Turf 8f         Claiming                                  8 – Sam’s Philly                       4/1*          

Horses moving to the Wayne Catalano barn win at a solid 32% with an amazing $2.46 ROI  when they make their first start for the Cat-man.  Such is the case for Sam’s Philly.  Claimed out of a $50K race at Churchill, no red flags by dropping him, instead he’s brought right back at the same level.  It is also a positive that his near-miss in that race he was claimed out of was a one-turn mile at Churchill, like today’s when it comes off the grass.  Jose Lezcano is set to take the reins today, and he is a 29% winner ($2.61 ROI) when riding in Wayne’s World.  Should be very effective on the off-going today.