1-Gulfstream 8f Maiden Claiming 8 – Proud to Glory 5/1
Drops for Michael Matz, who’s winning an excellent 38% with his maiden claimers, at an ROI of $3.54….wow! Jose Lezcano on board today, and he scores with nearly 20% of his mounts for Matz, at a positive ROI of $2.11. Has trailed significantly in both two-turn starts for a couple notches better, but he’s bred superbly for today’s one-mile distance. With several speed types, his presumed off-the-pace style should play well. Fair price in the opener.
2-Gulfstream Turf 5f Claiming 9 – Bling Bling Girl 8/1
Typically turf sprints are loaded with speed ball types and the handicapper’s dilemma is trying to figure if there is a speed-of-the-speed, or if the race sets up for a closer. But the gate today is full of 9 runners who perform their best from off the lead. One or two HAVE set the pace, but only when the fractions are soft and they are allowed to dictate terms. Such is NOT the case with Bling Bling Girl – she wants the front and has been able to set wicked fractions and hold on determinedly. She should find herself on an easy lead today, in spite of the outside post, and this should give jockey Rajiv Maragh options. Looks long gone in here at a very nice price.
3-Gulfstream 6f Maiden Special 5 – Candyman E 9/5****
The price is likely to be odds-on, but the chances of victory are great today, finally, for Candyman E. There is very little NOT to like in here. First, his rivals today are without any standout credentials – true, it is a horse race and you never know, but the others in here do little to inspire confidence at the wagering windows. Conversely Candyman E. comes off a narrow miss on Breeders’ Cup weekend at Churchill Downs when beaten by less than a length for 3rd, and the place horse has already returned to score making it a KEY race. Since coming to South Florida the Candyman has worked VERY sharply, his latest workout being 3rd best of 48 when blistering 4 furlongs in :47.1 seconds. Jockey Jose Castenon wins an outstanding 29% with an extremely high ROI of $3.59 for every $2 invested for this barn. All this alone would make him the bet – but wait, it gets better! In his debut, at Calder, Candyman dueled, and then gave way to finish second to multiple winner John Johny Jak. In his second race he was clear of the field by over six lengths, but settled for third behind Don Tito, who has since shipped to California
4-Gulfstream Turf 8.5f Maiden Claiming 3 – Desert Witch 4/1
No standouts in here either, and several could wake-up with the drop from Maiden Special to first-time tagged. We’ll settle on the Witch because she is lightly raced and her first two starts – on the Jersey Shore this summer – both produced turf Beyers that would beat the best race of any other runner in here – AND she drops from those MSW races in for a first time tag today. Given some time off through the fall she’s put in consistent works since December for her 2011 debut.
5-Gulfstream 6f Allowance 2 – Bank Heist 3/1*
While it is true that there are a couple of runners in here who like to push the early pace, no one has the early foot that Bank Heist possesses. He can rattle off sub-:22 quarters and he has the inside post to clear early. With top jockey JR Velazquez riding for his main man Todd Pletcher this should be a theft on the front end. Working very quickly in the morning since setting the pace in an Aqueduct stakes, the drop today makes him ultra-dangerous!
6-Gulfstream 8f Maiden Special 7 – Sinorice 12/1*
3-year-old maiden specials at Gulfstream are what trainer Todd Pletcher makes his winter living on – and he has two in here. So to go against either of them is at your own peril…..but I will take a shot here. Sinorice is a juicy 12/1 on the morning line and goes out for the red-hot Nick Zito barn. He appears to be loaded up for the winter season, and if that is his approach for the winter, it’s time to get on board before the crowd catches on. In addition to the hot barn angle, check out Sinorice’s debut. His first was at Saratoga – and any 2-year-old who debuts there is always highly regarded – and he ran a good third that day….check out the winner à Eclipse award winner, Breeders’ Cup 2-year-old champion, and Ky Derby early favorite Uncle Mo Uncle Mo. Delaware Belmont Belmont
7-Gulfstream 6f Spectacular Bid Stakes 8 – Cane Garden Bay 8/1
It’s fair to assume that these newly-turned 3-year-olds are still learning the game, and most of them just want to run as fast as they can, as far as they can. So, as you examine the past performances it leaps out that many of these will be gunning for the lead. This could set up a suicidal pace duel, and would benefit any young colt who’s already learned how to rate and finish. Such is the case of Cane Garden Bay
8-Gulfstream Turf 8f AOC 1 – Sleepless Knight 4/1**
Joe Bravo knows his way around a turf course, and he should get a GREAT pocket trip saving ground throughout on the rail today. There are two speed types that look to lock horns from their outside posts and set the race up for an off-the-pace type. Many of the others in here are stakes winners or stakes placed, but appear to have seen their best days. They could wake up here, but Sleepless Knight has yet to have his best day. In his brief six race career he’s already won a stakes race and he’s 3/1-1-1 here at Gulfstream Park
9-Gulfstream 8f Grade 3 Hal’s Hope 5 – Soaring Empire 4/1***
Going for a value play here – On the rail is Tackleberry who has wired back-to-back stakes races, and has won four in a row, five of his last six. Next door is multiple graded stakes winner Rule for Todd Pletcher. Next to him is Morning Line who was beaten by the narrowest of noses in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile after winning the Pa Derby – he goes for super hot trainer Nick Zito. The problem with all three of these quality runners….they ALL want the front end, and don’t know how to do it any other way. They will be burning each other up, and there are two horses on the outside who will most certainly be pressing a hot pace as well. That brings us to Soaring Empire – he won here last winter and was the “wise guy’s” pick in the Florida Derby. He didn’t fare so well that day, but since then he’s run ascending Beyers of 76-83-92-101-105. And that last race 105 is not only the best last race speed figure, it beats anything any of the rest of these have every run. Better yet, he’s earned these figures by finishing strongly. He’s got experience at the one-turn mile and I see him flying by late at a nice price under jockey Jose Lezcano to take down his first graded stakes.
10-Gulfstream Turf 7.5f Claiming nw3L 11 – Mustang Island 12/1
A two-time winner who goes for top turf trainer Christophe Clemente with Joe Bravo in the saddle – at 12/1? Adding to the appeal, this runner has never run for a conditioned (2L or 3L) tag …. in fact he has NEV ER run for a tag! He’s won going two turns and sprinting on the grass, so today’s middle distance should suit him very well. The only concern is only one work showing since mid-November….hmmmm. But at a tempting price in the finale!
No comments:
Post a Comment