Jan 29 Sunshine Millions Picks

12:55    1-Gulfstream    Turf      8.5f       Claiming nw3L                                    12 – Show the Way J               4/1            

Of the 12 runners entered in the opener today, ALL but one have run for the condition of “….non-winners of more than….” which essentially means they were trying to beat fellow losers.  It is a strong handicapping angle when a horse who has been facing open company, multiple winners, tries this restricted company for the first time.  Such is the case with Show the Way J.  This becomes an even stronger angle for pointing out potential winners when the horse is not only running in conditioned company for the first time, but is ALSO running for a claiming tag for the first time.  This TOO is the case for Show the Way J!.  Oh my, how many angles are there….more!  Show the Way J is coming off a solid effort against open allowance-optional claiming company in Tampa where he was beaten less than three lengths in spite of coming off more than two months.  He has since worked a bullet for super-turf trainer Billy Mott, who enlists his main go-to rider Kent Desormeaux.  It is also interesting that his two best efforts came when he ran here, at Gulfstream last winter.  Solid selection should this one stay on the grass.

12:55    1-Gulfstream    Off Turf 8f         Claiming nw3L                                    13 – Big Polk a Dot                  6/1           

Should the weather force this race off the turf it will be run at a one-turn mile on the main track.  A HUGE advantage would go to Big Polk a Dot who is strictly a main-track runner, and is entered as a “Main Track Only” entrant.  That in and of itself would make him a strong candidate as he will be facing horses who were entered to run on grass and now are on a less-than ideal surface.  Like Show the Way J – our selection ON the turf – Big Polk a Dot is also seeing conditioned company for the first time.  He has run once for a claiming tag, and that was in his last where he was claimed out of that spot by Michael Maker.  Maker wins with 33% of horses he claims the first time they run for his barn.  Though he has no experience with a one-turn mile, his main track experience will bode well for his chances should this be run on the main.  A sloppy track would only add to his appeal as his best speed figure was earned when he ran on a sloppy track at the Fair Grounds in New Orleans.  Solid should this come off the grass.

1:21      2-Gulfstream                7f         Allowance                               6 – Middle of the Nite               4/1                   

Debuted in a very strong Saratoga maiden race in August of 09 and was soundly beaten.  He changed hands and moved into the Tom Albertrani barn for his next start, in October 2009 and dueled on the front end, then drew off impressively.  Again he was laid off for several months, and was again transferred to another barn.  He made his 3-year-old debut in allowance company, his first start against winners.  He dueled on the lead from the gate to mid-stretch in a grueling one-turn mile.  He faded to be third beaten only 2 lengths, and earned a lifetime best speed figure.  AGAIN, he was transferred to another barn.   He was shipped off that losing effort – remember, it was his first try against winners – to run in a two-turn race at Tampa…..in the Grade 3 Sam Davis Stakes (a prep for the Tampa Bay Derby).  Clearly over his head, but he still dueled on the lead through six furlongs before giving way.  That race was in February, and marks his last start…..today he returns to the Tom Albertrani barn (the barn he won for) and goes 7 furlongs today – an elongated sprint, very similar to his career best effort in the one-turn mile.  Lightly raced with license to improve today, he could get back on track here.

1:49      3-Gulfstream  On/Off Turf  7.5f    Maiden Claiming                     11 – Extensive                          4/1                   

Extensive will be the selection – if he stays in the race – on or off the turf.  He is lightly raced, with only two starts, he comes off a break and drops in for a claiming tag today for the first time.  The drop from Maiden Special Weight competition into Maiden Claiming is the most powerful class move in thoroughbred racing.  Extensive is likely to improve on that basis alone.  He made his first 3-year-old start at Tampa going 8 ½ furlongs and was a good second in his last.  It is interesting that his debut was on the main track (albeit a synthetic one at Keeneland) and he was a credible third.  This would indicate to me that he would be equally effective today if this race came off the lawn.  Trainer Tom Proctor wins a solid 29% with runners making their second start off a layoff.  Proctor appears to have his main string of runners at Tampa, and the fact that he ships to Gulfstream today should be taken as a very positive sign.

2:17      4-Gulfstream    Turf      8.5f       Starter Allowance                    3 – Far From Shy                     6/1            

Made her debut for Steve DiMauro in the summer of ’09 and was claimed away from him here at Gulfstream last winter.  While in the DiMauro barn he ran solidly on the main track, so should this come off the turf, she would be a good selection – provided the pace scenario doesn’t change significantly.  When changing barns Far From Shy responded with a series of his best races – winning first off the claim, then running a good 4^th in his first try against winners, and has since improved in three straight turf races.  She should be a fair price in here as she was beaten in that last effort by one of today’s rivals.  However, that rival is a free-wheeling front runner.  And today there is another pace rival to set the table for an off-the-pace runner like Far From Shy!  It is also interesting that in his next-to-last race, Far From Shy was reclaimed by Steve DiMauro.

2:45      5-Gulfstream                7f         Allowance                               1 – Sovereign Default              8/5        

In his debut last July Sovereign Default was a badly kept secret, heading to post at a low 2/1.  He stalked the pace – which is a sign of a quality race horse at age two (who most like to just go as fast as they can as far as they can), and drew off to win by two open lengths.  The speed figure he earned that day was equal to a performance good enough to win many stakes races.  It’s not uncommon for a runner to be a flash of light in their debut, but how will they run in their first try against winners is the real test.  Well, today is the day we find out.  Typically we would take a stand against a “one hit wonder” who has yet to prove himself, but I think there are clues here that Sovereign Default may be the real deal.  The speed figure indicates there is natural ability.  The fact that his connections did not press the issue by racing him indicates they too believe they have something.  But perhaps most telling is the fact that the runner-up in Default’s race, Stay Thirsty, was over TWELVE lengths clear of the show horse and came right back to score in his next start.  Even more telling, Stay Thirsty exited that maiden win to run a good second to the promising Boys at Tosconova in the GRADE 1 Hopeful Stakes!  At that point – at still – many consider Stay Thirsty a legitimate Kentucky Derby threat who will only improve with distance; and he appeared to confirm that with a good fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.  All this from the horse Sovereign Default defeated!  Since arriving in Florida Sovereign Default has been working very strongly for his 3-year-old debut.  Trainer Richard Violette wins 20% with layoff runners; and when jockey Alan Garcia rides – and he was on board for that debut win – they team up to win 23% of the time at an outstanding $3.23 for every $2 invested.  This horse may have REAL talent and be a future stakes start – today may be the last time we get a “fair price.”  “PRIME TIME” investment today!

3:13      6-Gulfstream    Turf      8.5f       Claiming nw3L                                    11 – Lucky Lass                        10/1                 

Another conditioned claiming event; as you go through the first ten horses who will enter the gate, all of them have run, and lost, against restricted competition as they face today.  But near the outside in post 11 we find Lucky Lass who has never seen a conditioned tag, in fact she’s never been in for a claiming tag PERIOD!  This is nearly always an automatic selection in my handicapping arsenal.  Adding to the winning angles, after winning two of her first three starts she was ambitiously placed in a stakes race.  Way over her head she was soundly beaten.  She changed hands and was shipped to Chicago where she ran well without winning in her first two starts before, again, being placed in a stakes race.  Soundly beaten again it appears she became very discouraged as she failed to run well in two more races.  She was given time off, and returned to her Florida home and her original trainer Bill White.  Off nearly four months she was properly placed in an allowance-optional claimer and she ran creditably considering the long lay off, and her Beyer speed figure reflected this.  Perhaps she bounced in her next start, but I suspect by pressing a very fast pace (they ran 1:11 for six furlongs that day, and the fastest pace she’d ever seen was 1:13, nearly TEN lengths slower) it was no surprise she weakened.  Another short break and here we are – in for a first-time tag; in for first-time 3-Lifetime condition she should move forward significantly.  Top turf rider Joe Bravo is on board to steer her home.

3:30      2-Santa Anita               6f         Maiden Special                       2 – Runflatout                          7/2          

Read about her last summer while Del Mar was open that she might be special.  Has changed barns and her debut was delayed by sickness.  Her works lately indicate she is quick and might be very good.  Have to deal with the Baffert runner on her inside – but she has the rail and has already failed to win when expected to….and she will be a short priced favorite.  Consider upping the investment if the betting is heavy on Runflatout…….

3:41      7-Gulfstream    Turf      5f         Claiming                                  6 – Verse Choir                        12/1                 

Going for an “outside the box” selection in this one.  Turf races are most often won by turf winners (unless they are maiden events).  This is most especially true with turf sprints.  But our selection today is a runner who had but one start on the grass, and that was an even fourth in her last.  Why make Verse Choir the selection?  First, there appears to be a couple of runners who will test the likely favorite, front-running Fly Express who is stuck in a far outside post.  The fact that she often falters on the lead just adds to m conviction to go against her.  The other closers are not winning machines, so an outsider has a fair chance today.  Verse Choir is bred for turf, but had never tried it until her last.  She ran against a very swift pace that day and made up ground, but she was compromised by a poor start.  Today Hall of Fame trainer H. Allen Jerkens changes riders to a much more experienced jockey Jose Lezcano – who has ridden her to three victories (sprinting on the dirt), and is a 27% winning rider for Jerkens.  With a better rider, a cleaner start, and one on the grass under her belt she gets a favorable pace flow today to set up her upset bid.

Sunshine Millions Filly & Mare Sprint

4:16      8-Gulfstream                6f         SSM F-M Sprint                        7 – Amen Hallelujah                3/1     

GULFSTREAM BEST!

Amen Hallelujah towers over her rivals on class today.  She ran in exclusively Grade 2 and Grade 1 competition through her 3-year-old season compiling an admirable record of 5/2-2-0.  Two important things of note about her career…..sprinting at today’s six furlong distance Amen Hallelujah is a perfect 2-for-2.  And her two BEST BEYERS were earned HERE over the Gulfstream surface.  She has won fresh before, and fresh in a sprint before.  Since returned to training she has fired two sizzling bullets over the Gulfstream surface – one she obviously loves.  And I mean these bullets were exceptional works, indicating her readiness for today.  She will be ridden today by Julien Leparoux who was aboard in both of her Gulstream efforts last year, she will be stalking the front-runners today before exploding through the stretch.  The other ten fillies have a combined six starts in Grade 1 or 2 competition with a single win and two thirds.  Looks much the best in here…..MUCH THE BEST!

Sunshine Millions Filly & Mare Turf

4:51      9-Gulfstream    Turf      9f         SSM F-M Turf                           9 – Dynaslew                           7/2          

A very competitive race that should offer value on several legitimate contenders.  However, I believe that Dynaslew will not only prove to be the winner, but is a much more probable winner than the fillies and mares who will be bet to favoritism over her, as they have some questions to answer.  Speak Easy Gal is a “Horse-for-the-Course” with 4 wins in 5 Gulfstream turf tries.  However she will probably have her hand forced with the rail draw, and I don’t think she can wire the field at this distance.  In addition all her wins are photo finishes, so it’s hard to have a lot of confidence in her.  Another likely winner is Askbut I Won’ttell.  She is 2-for-2 at the distance and has won back-to-back Grade 3 races.  She is a legitimate contender, but I question who she’s beaten.  And her speed figures do NOT stamp her as short-priced favorite.  Scolara is a solid 3-for-5 over the Gulfstream turf, but has one win in the last two years – an optional-claimer on Florida Derby Day (when she was MY top pick!).  My top selection is Dynaslew.  She is a multiple graded stakes winner;  she was within a neck of winning the Grade 1 Diana at Saratoga when beaten by multiple Grade 1 champion Proviso.  Dynaslew is also attractive in her running style, where she can run on the front-end or can stalk the pace – her likely style today.  It is also appealing that she is ridden today by top turf rider Eibar Coa who in the last three times he was on her back Dynaslew won the Grade 3 Beaugay, was beaten a neck in that Grade 1 by Proviso, and won the Grade 2 Ballaston Spa Stakes.  Finally, she has rattled off six straight Beyer speed figures of 90 or better which would beat nearly every runner in here; and in her last three starts she’s earned a 96-99-96 which would be EVERY LIFETIME start by this field with two exceptions.  Looks like a solid pick who should go off at 3/1 or 4/1 as the third or fourth choice.

Sunshine Millions Sprint

5:03      5-Santa Anita               6f         SSM Sprint                              3 – Cost of Freedom                 1/1    

SANTA ANITA BEST!

Multiple graded stakes winner may have the lead all to himself, and if that is the case, this race is over before they reach the far turn.  Has run back-to-back-to-back triple Beyer speed figures …. The rest of the field has earned a combined ONE triple Beyer.  And that 101 speed figure was earned when that runner was soundly beaten by Cost of Freedom.  The only concern might be that Cost of Freedom has never raced over anything by the synthetic surfaces.  However he has been working steadily, and spectacularly, over this new Santa Anita dirt track.  On New Year’s Day he sizzled a best of 67 bullet work going four furlongs.  Would be a HUGE surprise if he lost here -  BIG TIME today.

Sunshine Millions $500K Classic

5:26      10-Gulfstream              9f         SSM Classic                             10 – Honour The Deputy          12/1            

UPSET OF THE DAY!

How often are you going to find a horse that has won 3 of his last four races, being ridden by top rider Johnny Velazquez as the upset of the day?  Well, here because today is his first try in stakes company.  There are any number of quality runners in here that wouldn’t be a surprise if they win, but I also think they all have serious questions to answer…….  First Dude will likely be the favorite, but in spite of running in all the BIG races last year he has but a single win!  He just doesn’t seem to want to win to me, and on the rail he will have to gun to the lead.  That will compromise the chances of local hero Tackleberry who’s proven he can’t beat quality runners when forced to duel on the lead.  The class closers Duke of Mischief and Dry Martini are good enough on their best – but both lost recent races that they had no business whatsoever to lose.  Honour The Deputy, by contrast, is lightly raced and may have room to improve – which would make him very dangerous in here.  He has the ability to run mid-pack or close, which should benefit from an anticipated pace duel.  I am also intrigued that today he makes his first start for trainer Jerry Hollendorfer – a California-based trainer, but Honour The Deputy ran all four of his races in Maryland.  Horses making their first start for Hollendorfer win 28% of the time!  He’s been working strongly on the Santa Anita dirt, and I doubt that Hollendorfer would ship across the country just for fun.

Sunshine Millions Turf

5:34      6-Santa Anita   Turf      9f         SSM Turf                                  7 – The Usual Q.T.                   2/1            

Willing to excuse his last when disappointing as the favorite, running third to one of his rivals today.  However, that was first off the break since running a solid third in the Breeders’ Cup.  Usually horses making their first start after the Breeders’ Cup disappoint; and it didn’t help that day that his workouts leading up to that Grade 2 effort were all screwed up with the torrential rains in southern California in the weeks preceding the opening of Santa Anita.  Everything going against him and he ran third.  He’s worked sharply for today’s race and he’s a bonafide “Horse-for-the-Course” with that last race being his lone loss over the Santa Anita grass course.  He should be the first one to come calling for free-running Presious Passion and should be able to turn the tables on Jeranimo today.  NOTE:  Presious Passion – long one of my very favorite horses – will be loose on the early lead.  Try to monitor the board and any pre-race comments that might indicate that his connections expect big things today.  Since running poorly in Dubai last year he just hasn’t been the same runner; and he has but a single work for this;  Connections are 0-fer with runners two-off-the-shelf as he is, and this is by far his poorest distance.  Lots to work against the old veteran.  Not exactly a vote of confidence that jockey Elvis Trujillo has flown all over the world to ride him opts to stay in South Florida today.  Hmmmmm

5:49      11-Gulfstream              9f         Claiming nw2L                                    7 – Pit Viper                             3/1        

In a rare happening, top trainer Ken MicPeek claimed this runner out of an OPEN $50K race.  A bit suspicious that he immediately drops him and puts him in a 2L event….but he won his debut wire to wire, then faced open company and was a nose away from wiring a 9 furlong field.  Top rider Leparoux stays on board today, and he looks to be loose on the lead today – which make him very dangerous on the class drop.

Sunshine Millions Distaff

6:05      7-Santa Anita               8.5f       SSM Distaff                              3 – Briecat                               6/1              

Inside speed could easily be long gone – the California surface has been playing strongly to speed, especially around two turns.  She has won three of her last four, including a Grade 2……Long Gone today!

7:07      8-Santa Anita               6.5f       AOC                                         4 – Hot Affair                            5/2              

Brad Free “Best” – his last race should have been a winning race after setting a blistering pace (:43 and change) was just caught.  Should clear this field easily and go wire to wire.