Opening Day - Gulfstream 2011

12:55    1-Gulfstream                5.5f       Claiming nw2L                                    4 – Vencedora Girl                   6/1                   

The opener is filled with last-out maiden winners, and horses who’ve already lost at this conditioned level….with the exception of Vencedora Girl.  Not only does she have the best Beyer speed figures, but she races today for tag for the first time – she opened in nothing but straight MSW company, then two allowance tries, a stakes try, and two more allowance tries.  Today, first time tagged – first time 2L.  Should show significant improvement against this much softer company.

1:24      2-Gulfstream                6f         Claiming                                  5 – Convoy Ahead                    5/2               

The race analysis starts and stops with Convoy Ahead….never beaten on the main track, and a perfect 3-for-3 here at Gulfstream.  So, what’s the catch?  He hasn’t been out since last May, and his works are less than sparkling.  AND….he goes from allowance company to a $6K tag – what gives?  He either walks with this on talent alone, or is nowhere to be found.  Thinking the connections figure everyone will be scared off by the plunge in class, and they’ll get him an easy 2011 opener.

1:52      3-Gulfstream    Turf      8f         Claiming                                  3 – Strategic Hope                   8/1                   

UPSET ALERT!  One start, a MSW debut win going 7 furlongs on the Woodbine synthetic.  But…..bred all over for turf and a distance of ground.  Trainer Brian Lynch is 1 for 16 first time turf, but with an ROI over $8!  In addition 1^st Lasix and sprint to route both show bit ROI.  REALLY like the best of 33 bullet over the Palm Meadows turf course.  Working strongly like he’s well meant!

2:52      5-Gulfstream    Turf      8.5f       Allowance                               6 – The Cognac Kid                 4/1               

Has run five turf races – Beyers of 91 (win fresh off the shelf like today), 86, 87 and 88.  The other was an 81 but can be excused for a troubled trip.  Looks strong with a fair price likely due to less than stellar connections;  but gets Rajiv Maragah in the irons today.

3:25      6-Gulfstream                6f         Maiden Special                       2 – La Rumba                          7/2 *             

Not only was she only beaten a neck in her debut, but her rival that day was Evil Queen.  Off of that maiden win Evil Queen next appeared in open allowance company and scored right back at $21.20 – my upset pick of the day that day!  Top connections with Elvis Trujillo for Michael Matz.  Big time.

3:52      7-Gulfstream    Turf      8.5f       Allowance                               4 – Litigating                            4/1                   

Holiday for Kitten is probably going to be WAY overbet, but if she can overcome the 13 post this filly may prove to be something special.  Got to be a great sign that Joel Rosario flies in from California to ride for Wesley Ward.  But with the short price and a forward running style, let’s look for a little more value.  Litigating goes fresh off the shelf for Bill Mott/Kent Desormeaux – on the turf, well duh!  Interesting that after running competitively against Lauren Byrd (who would have been a favorite for the Tropical Park Oaks Saturday) and Winter Memories (favorite in BC Juv Fillies Turf-2^nd), she broke her maiden on the synthetic!  Then came back with a troubled 4^th when boxed in.  May be a bit of a price.

4:23      8-Gulfstream                6f         Grade 3 Old Hat Stakes           3 – Final Mesa                         3/1           

Canadian 2-year-old filly star was a dominant win in her maiden debut, and then in two listed stakes.  A synthetic wonder you say?  NO!  Her first stakes win was over the traditional dirt at Delaware.  Off those three dominant win she was sent across the country to Del Mar and was the favorite in her graded debut, the Grade 2 Sorrento.  After dueling through a :44 half, she surrendered in the final furlong of that 6 ½ furlong stake.  Been working consistently for Wesley Ward, and it is VERY interesting to note that when Final Mesa went to Del Mar she was ridden by Joel Rosario.  I’m thinking he came across the country to ride here on this filly.  That’s enough for me…..today’s BEST BET!