1-Gulfstream 6f Maiden Claiming 2 – Love In Bloom 3/1
Appears pretty obvious as the lone class dropper and all the positive trainer stats
2-Tampa 1m/40 Starter Allowance 3 – Bullnose Brick 8/1
Beat similar last time out at Churchill, “drops” into Tampa
3-Tampa 6f Claiming nw3L 7 – Pure Rush 8/1*
Lightly raced, never seen a tag, much less a 2L tag / Barn an amazing 56% fresh – like today! Huge numbers in all categories – toss last turf experiment and you have a 2-for-2 runner sprinting!
2-Gulfstream 8f Claiming nw3L 12 – Cracklin 10/1
Going against my own handicapping rules – picking a horse already beaten at this conditioned level…but they ALL have, and he’s the LONE one-turn mile winner. Has good early speed and has Elvis Trujillo on board; should get good tracking position and benefit from the experience at a price.
1-Fair Grounds 5.5f Maiden Claiming 2 – Walk Away Ruler 3/1*
On his own merits he appears a clear-cut favorite; compared to the others he appears to be far and away the overwhelming favorite. Never seen a tag; best effort was his lone dirt sprint; new barn – who wins with 36% with new runners and 29% with amazing $7.43 ROI with layoff types like this; Mena a 20% J-T winning combo with the barn, ROI of $2.36
4-Tampa 6f Claiming 6 – Breezing Rain 3/1
Barn an winning 39% (of 192 starters) on the dirt, 41% (of 156 starters) sprints! Gets Rose back after scoring at 4/5 in last, here at Tampa
2-Fair Grounds Turf 5.5f Claiming 3 – Why Not Be Perfect 8/1
2 for 3 sprinting on the grass with the ability to stalk a soft pace or sit off a swift pace / Barn 24% 2nd off the layoff
4-Gulfstream 5.5f Claiming 6 – Fly South 10/1*
Looks to be the controlling speed with DOMINANT pace figures / Rider change to more experienced jock looks to seal the deal at the shorter trip
3-Fair Grounds 6f Claiming 1 – Regal Soul 4/1
Rest of the field wants the front end, but he’s the LONG finisher; moves up the ladder off convincing win and a new lifetime high; barn 23% right back
6-Gulfstream Turf 12f Allowance 8 – Sweet and Flawless 6/1*
Here’s the good news….. Sweet and Flawless comes into this first level allowance of a string of twelve, yes TWELVE straight stakes efforts, including NINE of them graded events! And never badly beaten, her typical Beyers lay over the field. MUCH the best it appears. Here’s the bad news…. a career record of 18/1-4-5, including 7/0-1-5 on the grass. Should get a comfortable mid-pack trip and class should tell here, especially at this marathon distance.
8-Tampa Turf 8f AOC 5 – Crown’s Princess 6/1
Rosemary on board for runner make only third start / Run back to his CD maiden win dominates in here – wide open heat, should get a fair price
7-Gulfstream 5.5f Maiden Special 1/1a – Pletcher entry 4/1**
Maiden Special 3-year-olds – where’s the Pletcher runner? Well, there are TWO of them! Both working well, and both have JR listed to ride, so only one will go. Trust in Todd….who ever he runs gets my vote…..triple up! Catch ‘em at a price today?
1-Santa Anita 8f Claiming nw2L 2 – Tiz True 5/1
While Tiz True has a woeful 1 for 11 record and the rider is 0-fer with the trainer, the gelding has something positive none of the others can claim – he’s never run for a tag, much less a conditioned tag. Another interesting angle is the last time Tiz True went turfàlayoffàmain, he won…repeats the pattern
8-Gulfstream Turf 8f AOC 4 – Baltimore
Loves the 8 furlong distance (7/5-0-0) and has scored here / Has also scored fresh off the shelf. Typical Beyer of 90 would handle this field – and he’s a proven winner (8 for 24). Drops in class today off of EIGHT straight stakes races, 3 graded!
7-Fair Grounds Turf 8f AOC 3 – Suave Voir Faire 5/2*
Switched barns off a good 3rd in Gr 2 on CD dirt and was flying late on the main for 58% winning barn; adds blinkers and goes back to grass. Solid here.
9-Gulfstream Turf 8f Starter Allowance 5 – Kelly’s Pic 3/1
On the drop could easily steal this, but also can run from off the pace as well. Record of 8/3-4-0 inspires confidence and he loves today’s 8 furlong distance (5/3-1-0).
3-Santa Anita 8.5f Allowance 3 – Party With Brando 2/1
Probably going to get a short price today for a runner that is a mere 3 for 33 lifetime, but he has a mid-pack/closing style and Bejarano up – both solid fits for the race flow here. Also, Brando is the lone runner to have already tasted success on real dirt!
4-Santa Anita Turf 8f Maiden Special 6 – Valuation 5/2
Debuted on the grass, sprinting and was clear by over 4 lengths of show horse while chasing a runaway winner (6+ lengths). Stretches out, and the distance should suit him as should the projected stalking style today.
9-Fair Grounds Turf 5.5f Maiden Special 3 – Blessed Day 5/1
With 7 of the 11 starters being first timers, and the ones with the experience all on the outside wanting to show speed, we are left with a lot of questions. However Blessed Day appears well bred for turf and trainer Brett Calhoun has stellar stats: FTS: 19%, T Sprints: 30% $2.02 ROI, Turf: 21%, Sprints: 27%, MSW: 25% $2.01 ROI, and when paired with jockey Jamie Theriot – 25% winners with a $2.07 ROI – looks to be a fair gamble at a price
5-Santa Anita Turf 8f Claiming 9 – Lease of Life 12/1**
I would be amazed if Life goes off any higher than 4/1 when the gate springs open – here’s a runner who is proven at the distance, enjoys the Santa Anita turf (5/2/1-1), has a sprint tightener under his belt and has been firing bullets since that sprint return….Cory Nakatani rides for Peter Miller, and they win at an excellent 27% with an ROI of $3.30! With questions on the other contenders we may have a nice upset selection here!
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