Tampa Bay Derby Day Selections - March 12

12:55    1-Gulfstream    Turf      8f         Claiming                                  8 – Gimme Credit                     4/1                   

Until his last two starts he ALWAYS earned upper 80s to low 90s Beyer speed figures on the grass.  But I think you can make a case to excuse both of those “off” efforts.  The last is easily dismissed – coming off a layoff the rains washed the two-turn turf route into a one-turn mile on the sloppy main, where he still managed to be second to a loose-on-the-lead front-runner.  The two back effort came after a hard-earned (neck) win off a layoff, so he had every right to regress slightly.  Today he drops in class and his record at the one-mile distance (11/4-0-1) indicates this should be right up his alley with a return to a more “typical” Beyer effort.  Hot-riding JJ Castellano is aboard.

1:55      3-Gulfstream    Turf      8f         Maiden Claiming                      8 – Safe Asset                          6/1                   

Debuts today with grass breeding top and bottom.  Her works are steady, but not spectacular, so her odds will probably be very fair today.  This despite the fact that trainer Danny Miller has won 2 out of 5 first time starters here,  and is an excellent 21% overall.  Jockey E.T. Baird is a 20% rider with an ROI of $2.34.  And, best of all – Miller’s ROI with those 40% first-time winners $4.56!

2:25      4-Gulfstream                8f         AOC                                         2 – Sister Resistor                    8/1                   

Not often you get 8/1 on a Leparoux-ridden runner who is such a solid contender.  Won debut going a mile – today’s distance.  Right into stakes company going 7 panels on synthetics at Arlington and was 3^rd with the winner exiting to win the BC Juv Filly at Santa Anita.  Off from Aug to Jan, resurfaced in allowance company HERE going a one-turn mile and won again!  Then her last three have all been stakes, with two of them being graded.  Today she’s back off the shelf and dropping in class.  We know she runs well fresh; we know she runs well at a one-turn mile; and we know she runs well here…..8/1 – are you kidding me?

3:20      7-Tampa           Turf      8f         Allowance                                2 – Pluck                                  1/1       

Tampa BEST

Multiple graded stakes winner – won the Breeders’ Cup Juv Turf beating hot-as-a-firecracker Soldat in the process.  Makes 2011 3-year-old debut with obviously bigger goals ahead….BUT – even his worst turf effort would beat the best lifetime effort of those running against him today.  If they had put him in a stakes race, especially a graded race to launch his career, you would expect him to be well bet without winning – but in this allowance spot, this is seemingly written for him as a confidence builder in his sophomore debut.  BIG TIME.  The only thing that may stop him from posing in the winner’s circle here is that he’s cross-entered for a Gulfstream start!

3:25      6-Gulfstream    Turf      8f         Claiming nw2L                         3 – Mutiny                                5/2       

Of the twelve runners scheduled to walk into the gate this afternoon, eleven of them have already lost in this conditioned claiming level.  But Mutiny has not….in fact has not run for a tag-EVER.  And today is only his fifth lifetime start, so he has much room to improve.  Second off the shelf today after trying allowance company for his 2011 debut for turf wizard Bill Mott and encountering trouble.  The drop in class should be all he needs to get back into the winner’s circle – as he did HERE last year at this exact distance!

3:50      8-Tampa                       6.5f       Handicap                                  6 – Belle of the Hall                  7/5       

Dominguez lined up on another chalky winner here.  The only time she was not running in a stakes for over $100K she was a dominant win.  Has proven she can fire fresh, and her off-the-pace style suits Tampa’s profile to a “T” – look out!

3:55      7-Gulfstream                6f         Maiden Special                        3 – Ninja Blade                         5/2       

Made his 2011 debut and had the misfortune to run against runaway winner Travellin’ Man – who came out of that race to run a bang-up 2^nd in the Grade 2 Hutcheson Stakes, but was clearly second best earning an excellent 87 Beyer.  Stretched to 7 panels in his second start Ninja again was unlucky, when he faced Arch Traveler that day, who came right back to repeat in a key 9 furlong allowance race that has his connections talking Florida Derby!  His Beyer was 85 as he was again, much the “best of the rest.”  Today is picture day!

4:20      9-Tampa           Turf      9f         Grade 3 Hillsborough               5 – Zagora                                5/2       

A stellar race with several graded stakes winner.  Hate to go with the chalk, but here is a Euro who was routinely throwing up triple-Timeform ratings, which would transform to mid-90 to 100 Beyers on her best day.  A group placed, and Group 3 winner she made her US debut last fall at Keeneland in the Grade 1 QE2 Cup and was a clear second, beating multiple graded winner Evening Jewel that day.  She has since switched to the top Chad Brown barn and I look for today’s effort to be superior.  Class of the field, and guess who’s on board – that’s right, Ramon Dominguez….again!

4:25      8-Gulfstream                8f         The Timely Writer Stakes         1 – Uncle Mo                            3/5

GULFSTREAM BEST

The 2-year-old champion and early Derby favorite has been nothing but impressive in all his starts.  I understand his goal is the Kentucky Derby and will not be all-out to win today, but strictly on talent alone he should bury this field.  Has been working superbly and should have no problem taking his first step toward the Run for the Roses with an authoritative, and facile win today.  BIG TIME BEST BET Today!

4:50      10-Tampa                     1m/40   Suncoast Stakes                      10 – Devilish Lady                    8/1                   

Winner of four in a row, including three straight stakes (including two here) prior to a early speed and fade effort in Gr 2 company at Gulfstream.  She’s got the Tomlinson’s and bloodlines to get a route of ground.  A BIG price on what is a legitimate contender with top rider Centeno on board.

4:55      9-Gulfstream    Turf      9f         Grade 3 Palm Beach Stakes     6 – Newsdad                             10/1     

If you look at Race 7 from Tampa you see my selection is Pluck.  And my comments are that if he were in a stakes race he would be a good one to bet against;  I also remarked that the only way he loses that race is to run at Gulfstream….well, this would be the spot he’s in.  He’s never gone this far, he’s coming off the shelf, and he obviously has much bigger goals.  There are several in here out of the Hallandale Beach Stakes.  I saw that race and was not impressed.  The Beyers seemed to confirm this as nearly every runner earned a figure that was out of context to their past races.  So I am tossing all of those false contenders.  There are two Pletcher runners, one I hope they bet down because he won’t win.  The other COULD but I am not impressed, but I AM impressed with Newsdad.  He’s improved in each start for Bill Mott, and the last was a win at this nine furlong distance – making him the only winner at today’s distance.  At 10/1 in a 3-year-old stakes race this early in the year, I’m willing to take a chance here with so many what appear to be false favorites.

5:00      9-Aqueduct                   9f         The King’s Point                      4 – Ywana Twist                       7/5       

Aqueduct BEST

Lightly raced was a factor on the Triple Crown trail last spring.  Very good races in open-graded company.  Off after a troubled 4^th in the Preakness – while only being beaten a little over a length – he returned at Gulfstream to score handily, in spite of trouble….and nearly matched Beyer numbers from his 3-year-old season.  Has been working sharply for Dutrow who is a multi-stake winner here this winter.  Should sit a cozy trip just off the speed and has the advantage over HFC Inherit the Gold who is parked on the outside and gives Twist six pounds.  Should be a tight finish with these two as the latter has won EVERY two-turn try over the inner – albeit against MUCH softer; while Ywana Twist goes from OPEN graded company into state-bred listed company.

5:20      11-Tampa                     8.5f       Grade 3 Tampa Bay Derby        10 – Bretheren                          1/1       

Granted, it’s for 3-year-olds and they can improve dramatically….but he was DOMINANT in the prep for this, so he really has no questions to answer.  He has one over the track; he won in hand; he doesn’t face any rising starts that APPEAR to be a real threat; and he’s won at the distance.  The only question is if UNCLE MO were to opt for here – should that one run, he’d be the “BEST of the Day” at Tampa …. But he is in all likelihood going in the Timely Writer at Gulfstream today.  BIG TIME – again for Dominguez.

5:25      10-Gulfstream               8f         Grade 2 Gulfstream H’Cap        5 – Jackson Bend                     8/1       

Heading into last winter’s Gulfstream season I was very excited about Jackson Bend who was my personal choice for Juvenile champion of 2009.  I was less than enthused when he left the care of local trainer Stanley Gold to move to the nationally known Nick Zito barn, but I understood why with his connections thinking Kentucky Derby.  His first start for Zito he should have been ridden more patiently I felt, but he was a good second.  Subsequently through the spring he ran his heart out to be 2^nd to the highly talented Eskenderaya in the Fountain of Youth and in the Wood Memorial.  He then was an unlucky third (as my selection) in the Preakness, beaten less than a length in spite of trouble by champion Lookin At Lucky.  After three subsequent disappointing efforts I see now he was returned to Stanley Gold and reunites with rider Jeffrey Sanchez who was aboard his electrifying wins as a 2 year old.  He will probably be dismissed at healthy odds today and with a reversal of form and return to his former races he could be an upsetter in here.  Especially with several who appear to be false contenders, with reason to NOT run their best in here.  UPSET SPECIAL!

5:46      10-Fair Grounds  Turf   7.5f       The Grindstone Stakes 2 – Wilcox Inn                          2/1                   

This race looks like a perfect set-up for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf’s 3^rd place finisher.  That race has already been validated, and if Pluck scores today (either at Tampa or at Gulfstream) it would be “hammer time” on this colt.  Obviously – like Pluck earlier in the day – he has bigger targets in mind over the summer, but he stands over this field from a pace play combined with his obvious talent.  The other logical contenders should all be compromised by front-running/pace-pressing styles opening the door for Wilcox Inn’s closing punch.

6:05      6-Santa Anita                9f         Grade 1 Santa Margarita           4 – Switch                                2/1       

ON PAPER this looks like an ideal set-up.  She has shown the ability to stalk the leader and finish well in her races as she’s matured.  And her first two starts – albeit at 7 panels – were dynamic.  The front-runner was easily overtaken by Switch when they met on Opening Day, and it doesn’t appear that this rival has any route advantage over Switch.  With the soft pace it will make St. Trinian’s job – the main danger today – much more difficult.  And we have yet to be shown that St. Trinian is as effective on the main surface as she is on synthetics.  Switch just appears to be a star in the making right now