1:25 2-Gulfstream 9f Starter Allowance 2 – S S Stone 2/1
As a youngster he showed good potential racing in California
1:56 3-Aqueduct 6f The Broadway Stakes 2 – Lots of Stones 9/5
Can you ever remember getting Ramon Dominguez on a horse that has won SIX STRA IGHT at better than odds-on? Steps up today into initial stakes foray, but in her current form and with her amazing running versatility she has to be given an excellent chance. On the front, pressing, stalking, or even closing all suits her. This isn’t the deepest or richest stakes in the row, so my guess is that the stakes-experienced runners are trying to regain the popular form that Stones is currently enjoying.
2:24 4-Aqueduct 6f Fred Cappy Capossela 5 – Vengeful Wildcat 9/5
Was stakes winner at two with better and better Beyers each time out. Lone loss – in stakes at the Shore – came when stumbling badly at the break, yet was still good enough to miss by less than a length to a quality runner while improving BSF by nearly 10 points. Bullet work at Belmont
2:25 4-Gulfstream 8f Starter Allowance 7 – Always Early 5/1
The field is made up predominantly of last-out maiden winners, so Always Early has an edge as one of the few to have faced winners. He has also never seen a tag, which some of the runners who HAVE seen winners have raced against. He is lightly raced (6/1-1-1) and comes off of a solid effort at today’s distance and class level. In that last race he was coming off a two-month break and stretching to a one-turn mile for the first time. He had the rail post and broke slowly, but was hustled to the lead and took them nearly all the way through very solid fractions. He gets a rider change today to Alex Solis and appears to be the speed of the race….to his credit in that last, he held off everyone but the winner, and was only a ½ length behind him! Sealing the deal is a best of 23 five furlong bullet work in :59.3.
2:52 5-Aqueduct 6f Grade 3 Tom Fool 1a – Calibrachoa 4/5
Gets a swift pace to finish into and the outside post puts Dominguez in position to read the flow of the race and choose his strategy appropriately. A winner of four of his last races he’s twice earned triple Beyers – no other runner has done it twice, and in fact only two others have hit the triple mark a single time. True that he gives weight to his rivals and will be a short price, but that is off-set by the fact that he is the LONE graded stakes winner in the group and Dominguez had his choice (apparently) among several of the contenders and landed here. Goes for Pletcher – hard NOT to like!
2:55 5-Gulfstream 7f Maiden Special 5 – Fire With Fire 5/2
This colt debuted as part of an entry that went off at 3/5 and he was within a length of the winner that day – the winner…..multiple graded stakes winner, and Kentucky Derby hopeful Bretheren; the runner up is also a quality young runner. Fire has been working sharply for Bill Mott over the deep Payson surface and looks – based on two recent bullet works – to be ready to fire a big one in his 3-year-old debut.
3:25 6-Gulfstream 6.5f AOC 2 – Folk Dancer 6/1
Should get a pretty fair price here as there are some classy absentee runners making their debut today in this spot. But this one is a curious entry. In his last, as in his entire 13 race career, he was racing over the synthetics or turf on the Southern California circuit. When he ran in late January down the hillside in a Santa Anita $50K sprint, he was claimed by Calder-based Marty Wolfson. This alone begs several questions……how did he come to get the horse….did he actually claim it out there? And to spend $50K on a runner must indicate some potential seen; then to take your very expensive purchase and ship across the country to run on a different surface on a different circuit – and at the tough Gulfstream meet? Too many puzzling questions that would most likely be answered by the simple statement that “….they know sumpin’ we don’t know….” I’m going with that at 6/1, and the fact that horses ALL THE TIME run lights out when showing up for the first time under Wolfson’s care.
3:55 7-Gulfstream Turf 9f Maiden Special 9 – Imhotep 6/1
Maiden Special 3-year-old at Gulfstream….Todd Pletcher/John Velazquez connection….well, duh! Bred to love the lawn; firing bullets at Palm Meadows, on the grass. Appears to be serious about his debut. Surprisingly Pletcher does NOT have big numbers debut runners at a route of ground, but given the lack of superstar favorites in here…..I’ll stand by the tried and true formula – Pletcher 3-year-olds at Gulfstream!
4:25 8-Gulfstream 6.5f AOC 1 – Apriority 3/1
Since setting up shop in the Fawkes shedrow this runner has become a terror – romped in a KEY Calder MSW, and came right back to win by 3 widening lengths against stakes quality foes in his first allowance condition. He then was just up in time at a one-turn mile in another KEY race, here earning a career-best 103 Beyer. Off that AOC photo win he went to Santa Anita and ran down Grade 1 odds-on favorite Cost of Freedom, who came out of that race to win a graded stakes. Ships back to Gulfstream but the best of 32 bullet work a week ago says he’s still in top form. Hard to deny with a ground-saving, and perhaps front-running effort today.
4:30 4-Santa Anita 8.5f Grade 1 Santa Anita Oaks 3 – Turbulent Descent 4/5
Hung at odds-on in 2011 debut, after which trainer said she got tired. All systems back on track today …. or did she peak as a 2-year-old? I believe she is a Kentucky Oaks contender, and am willing to forgive the effort in last, especially when noting that when coming off the shelf as a 2-year-old her Beyer was similar to that last one, and then she jumped up significantly in the second start, also stretching out to 8 ½ furlongs, like today. Has worked sharply for this; today we find out if she’s going to move on with the rest of the class or become a local listed stakes runner.
4:50 10-Tampa 8.5f Challenger Stakes 1 – Colizeo 3/1
Multiple stakes winner, including a Grade 3 for Pletcher, and relatively lightly raced. Five of his last six BSF have been 90 or better and 3 of the last 5, including both his last two, were 95 or higher. Those numbers would win for fun in here. There appears to be plenty of front-running speed, and the key will be for the rider to not panic and be intent on the lead – he can win from a pressing trip today. Should get a price break as many will be all over the Belmont Champion, Drosslemeyer. But he is facing elders for the first time, and coming off a long break….not fully cranked by Mott today (see To Honor and Serve last weekend!)
5:00 5-Santa Anita Turf 6.5f Clocker’s Corner H’Cap 8 – Unzip Me 7/5
Santa Anita BEST
Drops out of four consecutive graded stakes, including not 1, NOT 2, BUT THREE victories in that string, the only loss being in the BC Turf Sprint to HFC Chamberlain Bridge
5:12 10-Aqueduct 8.5f Grade 3 Gotham Stakes 4 – Toby’s Corner 5/2
Has yet to take a step backwards on the Beyer scale and has proven himself on the fast track at Laurel, then when shipped to the Big A not only did he handle the different surface, but it was also over an extended distance AND an off track. Projects for a good stalking trip. The runner he beat in winning his last – a stakes race HERE – came back not only to win, but to win a stakes race; and, perhaps even more significant, that runner earned a 97 Beyer. A win today by Toby, with further forward progress on the Beyer scale would probably be in the mid to upper 90s, which would verify that runner-up’s stakes score. Looks very formidable in here.
5:14 8-Fair Grounds Turf 7.5f The Grindstone Stakes 5 – Wilcox Inn 5/2
Fair Grounds BEST
ON or OFF TURF ! Lightly raced three year old won his debut in off-the-turf two-turn Arlington MSW , in what turned out to be a KEY race; came back to face Grade 1 foes on the Keeneland main and was a good third in another KEY race; then moved to the grass for the first time and was third in the BREEDERS’ CUP Juvenile Turf, in again what turned out to be a SUPER KEY race where Soldat was second, and that one has now moved into the top echelon of Kentucky Derby types. The only questions for this promising colt are, can he handle real dirt – as the “main track” win at Arlington
5:25 10-Gulfstream Turf 8f Grade 3 Honey Fox Stakes 7 – Aviate 6/1
Mott-Turf-Layoff-Desormeaux….WOW, and at 6/1! Not only that but her Timeform figures for her European efforts are REALLY strong. Been working well. Has won at the distance and fresh. Class tells on the turf and if she’s as good as she appears to be, this may be the last chance to get a nice price on what may be a multiple stakes winner through the summer.
5:52 11-Gulfstream Turf 8f Maiden Special 3 – Rockettes Escapade 3/1
Bill Mott on the turf again – slow start in debut from post 11, but was still 3rd only beaten 2 lengths for the money. With one under his belt and a bullet work he should be ready to run a big one today, from a MUCH better starting post.
7:00 9-Santa Anita Turf 8f Grade 1 Kilroe Mile 2 – Fluke 7/2
The pace in here is suspect at best, so all the runners – who look to go off as the leading contenders – who want to come from mid-pack or farther back would appear to be up against the pace flow. In Fluke you not only get a runner who can set or press the pace at today’s 8 panel distance, but you also get a proven mile winner – in fact he enjoys the SA infield (5/2-2-0) including a win in the Grade 3 Thunder Road at today’s distance in his last. The field is a combined 6 for 30 at the mile distance, while Fluke is 9/3-4-0…..and one of those runner-up efforts was a narrow nose defeat in this race last year.
7:30 10-Santa Anita 10f Grade 1 Big Cap 5 – Twirling Candy 4/5
The only thing keeping Twirling Candy from being the “BEST” of the day is that he’s not been the classic distance before. However his competition today is also unfamiliar with the distance – few have even tried the distance (or similar) and none have won at the distance (or similar). His Beyers tower over the field; his ability (apparently) towers over the field and there is every possibility that he has not reached his potential yet – and THAT my friend is very scary! He appears, to this handicapper, to be the clear leader in the older Classic division. Looking for a big effort today.
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