Mar 27 Recap

La Derby Preview Mar 26

March 25 Recap

March 20 Recap

Mar 13 Recap

March 12 Recap

Mar 12: Top Selections Around Country Including Tampa Bay Derby

*Note:  Race numbers at Gulfstream are off by one  - see correct race numbers below!

Tampa Bay Derby Day Selections - March 12

12:55    1-Gulfstream    Turf      8f         Claiming                                  8 – Gimme Credit                     4/1                   

Until his last two starts he ALWAYS earned upper 80s to low 90s Beyer speed figures on the grass.  But I think you can make a case to excuse both of those “off” efforts.  The last is easily dismissed – coming off a layoff the rains washed the two-turn turf route into a one-turn mile on the sloppy main, where he still managed to be second to a loose-on-the-lead front-runner.  The two back effort came after a hard-earned (neck) win off a layoff, so he had every right to regress slightly.  Today he drops in class and his record at the one-mile distance (11/4-0-1) indicates this should be right up his alley with a return to a more “typical” Beyer effort.  Hot-riding JJ Castellano is aboard.

1:55      3-Gulfstream    Turf      8f         Maiden Claiming                      8 – Safe Asset                          6/1                   

Debuts today with grass breeding top and bottom.  Her works are steady, but not spectacular, so her odds will probably be very fair today.  This despite the fact that trainer Danny Miller has won 2 out of 5 first time starters here,  and is an excellent 21% overall.  Jockey E.T. Baird is a 20% rider with an ROI of $2.34.  And, best of all – Miller’s ROI with those 40% first-time winners $4.56!

2:25      4-Gulfstream                8f         AOC                                         2 – Sister Resistor                    8/1                   

Not often you get 8/1 on a Leparoux-ridden runner who is such a solid contender.  Won debut going a mile – today’s distance.  Right into stakes company going 7 panels on synthetics at Arlington and was 3^rd with the winner exiting to win the BC Juv Filly at Santa Anita.  Off from Aug to Jan, resurfaced in allowance company HERE going a one-turn mile and won again!  Then her last three have all been stakes, with two of them being graded.  Today she’s back off the shelf and dropping in class.  We know she runs well fresh; we know she runs well at a one-turn mile; and we know she runs well here…..8/1 – are you kidding me?

3:20      7-Tampa           Turf      8f         Allowance                                2 – Pluck                                  1/1       

Tampa BEST

Multiple graded stakes winner – won the Breeders’ Cup Juv Turf beating hot-as-a-firecracker Soldat in the process.  Makes 2011 3-year-old debut with obviously bigger goals ahead….BUT – even his worst turf effort would beat the best lifetime effort of those running against him today.  If they had put him in a stakes race, especially a graded race to launch his career, you would expect him to be well bet without winning – but in this allowance spot, this is seemingly written for him as a confidence builder in his sophomore debut.  BIG TIME.  The only thing that may stop him from posing in the winner’s circle here is that he’s cross-entered for a Gulfstream start!

3:25      6-Gulfstream    Turf      8f         Claiming nw2L                         3 – Mutiny                                5/2       

Of the twelve runners scheduled to walk into the gate this afternoon, eleven of them have already lost in this conditioned claiming level.  But Mutiny has not….in fact has not run for a tag-EVER.  And today is only his fifth lifetime start, so he has much room to improve.  Second off the shelf today after trying allowance company for his 2011 debut for turf wizard Bill Mott and encountering trouble.  The drop in class should be all he needs to get back into the winner’s circle – as he did HERE last year at this exact distance!

3:50      8-Tampa                       6.5f       Handicap                                  6 – Belle of the Hall                  7/5       

Dominguez lined up on another chalky winner here.  The only time she was not running in a stakes for over $100K she was a dominant win.  Has proven she can fire fresh, and her off-the-pace style suits Tampa’s profile to a “T” – look out!

3:55      7-Gulfstream                6f         Maiden Special                        3 – Ninja Blade                         5/2       

Made his 2011 debut and had the misfortune to run against runaway winner Travellin’ Man – who came out of that race to run a bang-up 2^nd in the Grade 2 Hutcheson Stakes, but was clearly second best earning an excellent 87 Beyer.  Stretched to 7 panels in his second start Ninja again was unlucky, when he faced Arch Traveler that day, who came right back to repeat in a key 9 furlong allowance race that has his connections talking Florida Derby!  His Beyer was 85 as he was again, much the “best of the rest.”  Today is picture day!

4:20      9-Tampa           Turf      9f         Grade 3 Hillsborough               5 – Zagora                                5/2       

A stellar race with several graded stakes winner.  Hate to go with the chalk, but here is a Euro who was routinely throwing up triple-Timeform ratings, which would transform to mid-90 to 100 Beyers on her best day.  A group placed, and Group 3 winner she made her US debut last fall at Keeneland in the Grade 1 QE2 Cup and was a clear second, beating multiple graded winner Evening Jewel that day.  She has since switched to the top Chad Brown barn and I look for today’s effort to be superior.  Class of the field, and guess who’s on board – that’s right, Ramon Dominguez….again!

4:25      8-Gulfstream                8f         The Timely Writer Stakes         1 – Uncle Mo                            3/5

GULFSTREAM BEST

The 2-year-old champion and early Derby favorite has been nothing but impressive in all his starts.  I understand his goal is the Kentucky Derby and will not be all-out to win today, but strictly on talent alone he should bury this field.  Has been working superbly and should have no problem taking his first step toward the Run for the Roses with an authoritative, and facile win today.  BIG TIME BEST BET Today!

4:50      10-Tampa                     1m/40   Suncoast Stakes                      10 – Devilish Lady                    8/1                   

Winner of four in a row, including three straight stakes (including two here) prior to a early speed and fade effort in Gr 2 company at Gulfstream.  She’s got the Tomlinson’s and bloodlines to get a route of ground.  A BIG price on what is a legitimate contender with top rider Centeno on board.

4:55      9-Gulfstream    Turf      9f         Grade 3 Palm Beach Stakes     6 – Newsdad                             10/1     

If you look at Race 7 from Tampa you see my selection is Pluck.  And my comments are that if he were in a stakes race he would be a good one to bet against;  I also remarked that the only way he loses that race is to run at Gulfstream….well, this would be the spot he’s in.  He’s never gone this far, he’s coming off the shelf, and he obviously has much bigger goals.  There are several in here out of the Hallandale Beach Stakes.  I saw that race and was not impressed.  The Beyers seemed to confirm this as nearly every runner earned a figure that was out of context to their past races.  So I am tossing all of those false contenders.  There are two Pletcher runners, one I hope they bet down because he won’t win.  The other COULD but I am not impressed, but I AM impressed with Newsdad.  He’s improved in each start for Bill Mott, and the last was a win at this nine furlong distance – making him the only winner at today’s distance.  At 10/1 in a 3-year-old stakes race this early in the year, I’m willing to take a chance here with so many what appear to be false favorites.

5:00      9-Aqueduct                   9f         The King’s Point                      4 – Ywana Twist                       7/5       

Aqueduct BEST

Lightly raced was a factor on the Triple Crown trail last spring.  Very good races in open-graded company.  Off after a troubled 4^th in the Preakness – while only being beaten a little over a length – he returned at Gulfstream to score handily, in spite of trouble….and nearly matched Beyer numbers from his 3-year-old season.  Has been working sharply for Dutrow who is a multi-stake winner here this winter.  Should sit a cozy trip just off the speed and has the advantage over HFC Inherit the Gold who is parked on the outside and gives Twist six pounds.  Should be a tight finish with these two as the latter has won EVERY two-turn try over the inner – albeit against MUCH softer; while Ywana Twist goes from OPEN graded company into state-bred listed company.

5:20      11-Tampa                     8.5f       Grade 3 Tampa Bay Derby        10 – Bretheren                          1/1       

Granted, it’s for 3-year-olds and they can improve dramatically….but he was DOMINANT in the prep for this, so he really has no questions to answer.  He has one over the track; he won in hand; he doesn’t face any rising starts that APPEAR to be a real threat; and he’s won at the distance.  The only question is if UNCLE MO were to opt for here – should that one run, he’d be the “BEST of the Day” at Tampa …. But he is in all likelihood going in the Timely Writer at Gulfstream today.  BIG TIME – again for Dominguez.

5:25      10-Gulfstream               8f         Grade 2 Gulfstream H’Cap        5 – Jackson Bend                     8/1       

Heading into last winter’s Gulfstream season I was very excited about Jackson Bend who was my personal choice for Juvenile champion of 2009.  I was less than enthused when he left the care of local trainer Stanley Gold to move to the nationally known Nick Zito barn, but I understood why with his connections thinking Kentucky Derby.  His first start for Zito he should have been ridden more patiently I felt, but he was a good second.  Subsequently through the spring he ran his heart out to be 2^nd to the highly talented Eskenderaya in the Fountain of Youth and in the Wood Memorial.  He then was an unlucky third (as my selection) in the Preakness, beaten less than a length in spite of trouble by champion Lookin At Lucky.  After three subsequent disappointing efforts I see now he was returned to Stanley Gold and reunites with rider Jeffrey Sanchez who was aboard his electrifying wins as a 2 year old.  He will probably be dismissed at healthy odds today and with a reversal of form and return to his former races he could be an upsetter in here.  Especially with several who appear to be false contenders, with reason to NOT run their best in here.  UPSET SPECIAL!

5:46      10-Fair Grounds  Turf   7.5f       The Grindstone Stakes 2 – Wilcox Inn                          2/1                   

This race looks like a perfect set-up for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf’s 3^rd place finisher.  That race has already been validated, and if Pluck scores today (either at Tampa or at Gulfstream) it would be “hammer time” on this colt.  Obviously – like Pluck earlier in the day – he has bigger targets in mind over the summer, but he stands over this field from a pace play combined with his obvious talent.  The other logical contenders should all be compromised by front-running/pace-pressing styles opening the door for Wilcox Inn’s closing punch.

6:05      6-Santa Anita                9f         Grade 1 Santa Margarita           4 – Switch                                2/1       

ON PAPER this looks like an ideal set-up.  She has shown the ability to stalk the leader and finish well in her races as she’s matured.  And her first two starts – albeit at 7 panels – were dynamic.  The front-runner was easily overtaken by Switch when they met on Opening Day, and it doesn’t appear that this rival has any route advantage over Switch.  With the soft pace it will make St. Trinian’s job – the main danger today – much more difficult.  And we have yet to be shown that St. Trinian is as effective on the main surface as she is on synthetics.  Switch just appears to be a star in the making right now

Mar 5 Big Cap Day

Big 'Cap Day: Santa Anita / Gulfstream & National Stakes Analysis

1:25      2-Gulfstream                9f         Starter Allowance                     2 – S S Stone                           2/1                   

As a youngster he showed good potential racing in California, going both short and long.  When transferred to the Zito barn he made his 5-year-old debut (just his 6^th career start) in a sprint and stumbled badly at the start.  Zito brought him to Gulfstream in a 25K nw2L going a one-turn mile and he was DOMINANT drawing off by nearly a pole.  Stepped up to allowance company in his next, which was his last race, he was sent today’s nine furlongs.  Again, he WALKED with it in dominant fashion.  The two Beyers he earned for those two races (95-96) tower over his rivals today; and with the last race win at today’s distance he is the lone 9f winner in the field.  Much, MUCH the best in here it appears.

1:56      3-Aqueduct                   6f         The Broadway Stakes               2 – Lots of Stones                    9/5                   

Can you ever remember getting Ramon Dominguez on a horse that has won SIX STRAIGHT at better than odds-on?  Steps up today into initial stakes foray, but in her current form and with her amazing running versatility she has to be given an excellent chance.  On the front, pressing, stalking, or even closing all suits her.  This isn’t the deepest or richest stakes in the row, so my guess is that the stakes-experienced runners are trying to regain the popular form that Stones is currently enjoying.

2:24      4-Aqueduct                   6f         Fred Cappy Capossela             5 – Vengeful Wildcat                9/5                   

Was stakes winner at two with better and better Beyers each time out.  Lone loss – in stakes at the Shore – came when stumbling badly at the break, yet was still good enough to miss by less than a length to a quality runner while improving BSF by nearly 10 points.  Bullet work at Belmont points out readiness to run today – can he handle the inner?  Up the investment à Liftin’s “BEST” of the day!

2:25      4-Gulfstream                8f         Starter Allowance                     7 – Always Early                       5/1                   

The field is made up predominantly of last-out maiden winners, so Always Early has an edge as one of the few to have faced winners.  He has also never seen a tag, which some of the runners who HAVE seen winners have raced against.  He is lightly raced (6/1-1-1) and comes off of a solid effort at today’s distance and class level.  In that last race he was coming off a two-month break and stretching to a one-turn mile for the first time.  He had the rail post and broke slowly, but was hustled to the lead and took them nearly all the way through very solid fractions.  He gets a rider change today to Alex Solis and appears to be the speed of the race….to his credit in that last, he held off everyone but the winner, and was only a ½ length behind him!  Sealing the deal is a best of 23 five furlong bullet work in :59.3.

2:52      5-Aqueduct                   6f         Grade 3 Tom Fool                    1a – Calibrachoa                      4/5                   

Gets a swift pace to finish into and the outside post puts Dominguez in position to read the flow of the race and choose his strategy appropriately.  A winner of four of his last races he’s twice earned triple Beyers – no other runner has done it twice, and in fact only two others have hit the triple mark a single time.  True that he gives weight to his rivals and will be a short price, but that is off-set by the fact that he is the LONE graded stakes winner in the group and Dominguez had his choice (apparently) among several of the contenders and landed here.  Goes for Pletcher – hard NOT to like!

2:55      5-Gulfstream                7f         Maiden Special                        5 – Fire With Fire                      5/2                   

This colt debuted as part of an entry that went off at 3/5 and he was within a length of the winner that day – the winner…..multiple graded stakes winner, and Kentucky Derby hopeful Bretheren;  the runner up is also a quality young runner.  Fire has been working sharply for Bill Mott over the deep Payson surface and looks – based on two recent bullet works – to be ready to fire a big one in his 3-year-old debut.

3:25      6-Gulfstream                6.5f       AOC                                         2 – Folk Dancer                        6/1                   

Should get a pretty fair price here as there are some classy absentee runners making their debut today in this spot.  But this one is a curious entry.  In his last, as in his entire 13 race career, he was racing over the synthetics or turf on the Southern California circuit.  When he ran in late January down the hillside in a Santa Anita $50K sprint, he was claimed by Calder-based Marty Wolfson.  This alone begs several questions……how did he come to get the horse….did he actually claim it out there?  And to spend $50K on a runner must indicate some potential seen; then to take your very expensive purchase and ship across the country to run on a different surface on a different circuit – and at the tough Gulfstream meet?  Too many puzzling questions that would most likely be answered by the simple statement that “….they know sumpin’ we don’t know….”  I’m going with that at 6/1, and the fact that horses ALL THE TIME run lights out when showing up for the first time under Wolfson’s care.

3:55      7-Gulfstream    Turf      9f         Maiden Special                        9 – Imhotep                              6/1                   

Maiden Special 3-year-old at Gulfstream….Todd Pletcher/John Velazquez connection….well, duh!  Bred to love the lawn; firing bullets at Palm Meadows, on the grass.  Appears to be serious about his debut.  Surprisingly Pletcher does NOT have big numbers debut runners at a route of ground, but given the lack of superstar favorites in here…..I’ll stand by the tried and true formula – Pletcher 3-year-olds at Gulfstream!

4:25      8-Gulfstream                6.5f       AOC                                         1 – Apriority                             3/1                   

Since setting up shop in the Fawkes shedrow this runner has become a terror – romped in a KEY Calder MSW, and came right back to win by 3 widening lengths against stakes quality foes in his first allowance condition.  He then was just up in time at a one-turn mile in another KEY race, here earning a career-best 103 Beyer.  Off that AOC photo win he went to Santa Anita and ran down Grade 1 odds-on favorite Cost of Freedom, who came out of that race to win a graded stakes.  Ships back to Gulfstream but the best of 32 bullet work a week ago says he’s still in top form.  Hard to deny with a ground-saving, and perhaps front-running effort today.

4:30      4-Santa Anita                8.5f       Grade 1 Santa Anita Oaks         3 – Turbulent Descent              4/5       

Hung at odds-on in 2011 debut, after which trainer said she got tired.  All systems back on track today …. or did she peak as a 2-year-old?  I believe she is a Kentucky Oaks contender, and am willing to forgive the effort in last, especially when noting that when coming off the shelf as a 2-year-old her Beyer was similar to that last one, and then she jumped up significantly in the second start, also stretching out to 8 ½ furlongs, like today.  Has worked sharply for this; today we find out if she’s going to move on with the rest of the class or become a local listed stakes runner.

4:50      10-Tampa                     8.5f       Challenger Stakes                    1 – Colizeo                               3/1                   

Multiple stakes winner, including a Grade 3 for Pletcher, and relatively lightly raced.  Five of his last six BSF have been 90 or better and 3 of the last 5, including both his last two, were 95 or higher.  Those numbers would win for fun in here.  There appears to be plenty of front-running speed, and the key will be for the rider to not panic and be intent on the lead – he can win from a pressing trip today.  Should get a price break as many will be all over the Belmont Champion, Drosslemeyer.  But he is facing elders for the first time, and coming off a long break….not fully cranked by Mott today (see To Honor and Serve last weekend!)

5:00      5-Santa Anita    Turf      6.5f       Clocker’s Corner H’Cap            8 – Unzip Me                            7/5       

Santa Anita BEST

Drops out of four consecutive graded stakes, including not 1, NOT 2, BUT THREE victories in that string, the only loss being in the BC Turf Sprint to HFC Chamberlain Bridge (who came right back to score in his 2011 debut).  But, does she like the downhill course….well, duh – she’s a HFC (5/4-0-0)!  There are no – ZERO – graded winners in this listed stakes field besides Unzip Me, only a single graded stakes-placed filly (when falling to Unzip Me).  It would take something very, VERY unusual to deny her in here. 

5:12      10-Aqueduct                 8.5f       Grade 3 Gotham Stakes            4 – Toby’s Corner                     5/2       

Has yet to take a step backwards on the Beyer scale and has proven himself on the fast track at Laurel, then when shipped to the Big A not only did he handle the different surface, but it was also over an extended distance AND an off track.  Projects for a good stalking trip.  The runner he beat in winning his last – a stakes race HERE – came back not only to win, but to win a stakes race; and, perhaps even more significant, that runner earned a 97 Beyer.  A win today by Toby, with further forward progress on the Beyer scale would probably be in the mid to upper 90s, which would verify that runner-up’s stakes score.  Looks very formidable in here.

5:14      8-Fair Grounds   Turf    7.5f       The Grindstone Stakes             5 – Wilcox Inn                          5/2       

Fair Grounds BEST

ON or OFF TURF!  Lightly raced three year old won his debut in off-the-turf two-turn Arlington MSW, in what turned out to be a KEY race;  came back to face Grade 1 foes on the Keeneland main and was a good third in another KEY race; then moved to the grass for the first time and was third in the BREEDERS’ CUP Juvenile Turf, in again what turned out to be a SUPER KEY race where Soldat was second, and that one has now moved into the top echelon of Kentucky Derby types.  The only questions for this promising colt are, can he handle real dirt – as the “main track” win at Arlington was over their synthetic surface – and with bigger and better goals ahead, will they want to go all out today and/or stay in if it comes off the turf?  To the first, his works over the main track (especially that Feb 12 5^th best of 75 work) indicate that the main track will not be a problem;  to the second, it would be my thinking that if I had a promising colt at this time of the season – it’s already March – I’d want to get him going.  He won’t need to be 100% to take down this field on either surface as he meets much, MUCH softer company today.  Should he scratch #4-Moonbie (8/1) looms a dangerous pace contender under James Graham for Thomas Amos.

5:25      10-Gulfstream   Turf      8f         Grade 3 Honey Fox Stakes       7 – Aviate                                 6/1                   

Mott-Turf-Layoff-Desormeaux….WOW, and at 6/1!  Not only that but her Timeform figures for her European efforts are REALLY strong.  Been working well.  Has won at the distance and fresh.  Class tells on the turf and if she’s as good as she appears to be, this may be the last chance to get a nice price on what may be a multiple stakes winner through the summer.

5:52      11-Gulfstream   Turf      8f         Maiden Special                        3 – Rockettes Escapade            3/1                   

Bill Mott on the turf again – slow start in debut from post 11, but was still 3^rd only beaten 2 lengths for the money.  With one under his belt and a bullet work he should be ready to run a big one today, from a MUCH better starting post.

7:00      9-Santa Anita    Turf      8f         Grade 1 Kilroe Mile                  2 – Fluke                                  7/2                   

The pace in here is suspect at best, so all the runners – who look to go off as the leading contenders – who want to come from mid-pack or farther back would appear to be up against the pace flow.  In Fluke you not only get a runner who can set or press the pace at today’s 8 panel distance, but you also get a proven mile winner – in fact he enjoys the SA infield (5/2-2-0) including a win in the Grade 3 Thunder Road at today’s distance in his last.  The field is a combined 6 for 30 at the mile distance, while Fluke is 9/3-4-0…..and one of those runner-up efforts was a narrow nose defeat in this race last year.

7:30      10-Santa Anita              10f        Grade 1 Big Cap                       5 – Twirling Candy                   4/5       

The only thing keeping Twirling Candy from being the “BEST” of the day is that he’s not been the classic distance before.  However his competition today is also unfamiliar with the distance – few have even tried the distance (or similar) and none have won at the distance (or similar).  His Beyers tower over the field; his ability (apparently) towers over the field and there is every possibility that he has not reached his potential yet – and THAT my friend is very scary!  He appears, to this handicapper, to be the clear leader in the older Classic division.  Looking for a big effort today.

February Highlights