Belmont Stakes Selections

2:17 5-Calder 6f Leave Me Alone Stakes 4 – Beso Grande 3/1
Since coming to the Steve DeMauro barn after her debut Beso has run eight times – 4 trips around two-turns and 4 trips going one turn. Draw a line through the two-turns (which are not bad efforts at all) and here’s what you have: WIN, 2nd to Devilish Lady (who’d be odds-on in here), WIN-BSF: 80, and WIN-BSF: 80. In spite of beating some of these in an overnight stakes last out she actually DROPS four pounds today. A bullet, best of 40 is the final clue that she’s MUCH the best in this first prep for the Summit of Speed.
2:34 6-Belmont 8f Grade 1 Acorn 2 – Turbulent Descent 5/2
My favorite 3-year-old filly and a multiple Grade 1 winner. Probably the BEST filly/mare sprinter in the country, but a one-turn mile will be right up her alley. She has won going a route of ground two turns, and at 7 furlongs…..so an 8 furlong 1-turn mile will be fine. Lone loss came off a layoff when not fully cranked (admitted by trainer afterward). She was sensational at Keeneland in Grade 2 last out. Much, MUCH the best in here.
2:44 6-Calder 6f The Unbridled Stakes 5 – Indiano 7/2
There are several in here who are more than qualified to win this second prep for the Summit card; however the fact that Indiano lies close to the pace, has seen graded company and ran very well against them in his last two, and most especially that he comes from the Marty Wolfson barn all indicate that he is the one to beat. Those factors may also play to him being an underlay on the board at post time, but he is the most likely winner. If able to reproduce his huge effort when second in the Grade 2 Swale the rest are running for second money and he’d become one of the favorites on the Summit card July 9
3:15 7-Belmont 6f Grade 2 True North H’Cap 3 – Trappe Shot 7/2 *
This is one very talented colt – opened with two 10+ length scores in hand in winter of 2010, then back-to-back 105 Beyers winning his stakes debut before a good second to 3-year-old champion Lookin’ At Lucky in the Grade 1 Haskell. Way beyond his scope in the 1 ¼ mile Grade 1 Travers last August, then laid off until a month ago when he sizzled another 100+ Beyer over two graded stakes winning foes, including one of my favorites, and a rival today D’Funnybone. MUCH the best as he won without being asked too much in that last win while D’Funnybone was being asked for everything.
3:59 8-Belmont 7f Grade 2 Woody Stephens 1 – Travelin Man 9/2
This comes down to how Johnny Velasquez rides this colt – he appears to be much more comfortable stalking the pace, as he did in both is wins, including an impressive win on Florida Derby Day in the Swale. The Derby Trial last out may have been partly a factor of the mile distance, but by going right to the lead I thought he conceded his best chance to win, especially on that night when finishers dominated the card. Today he again draws the rail, but with the big sweeping turns at Belmont he should be able to rate back off the pace and draw clear. May be a nice price as other handicappers see his last out defeat as a sign of decline and inability to get the distance?
4:40 10-Calder 6f The U Can Do It H’Cap 1 – Bella Moneta 9/2
Marty Wolfson, again, should dominate in here as he has the ML favorite and this one (third choice) / May take advantage of the inside rail slot and take these on a merry chase, but just as comfortable working out a stalking trip if not pinned on the wood. Logical contenders may win, but she appears the most likely winner with the right trip
4:43 9-Belmont Turf 8f Grade 1 Just A Game 2 – Aviate 4/1
Won the Grade 2 Churchill Downs Distaff with deceptive ease in last; Mott a turf master, and even more dangerous when jockey Kent Desormeaux is on board (like today). Should get ample pace to set up her late kick – can come from well off the pace, or in a stalking position. Looks very tough, and as I said on Derby Day……she is going to be a star this summer in the Filly/Mare turf division – takes another step forward today
4:51 9-Delaware 9f Grade 3 Obeah Stakes 3 – Havre de Grace 9/5
DELAWARE BEST
Last FIVE races all triple Beyers all but one in Grade 1 or Grade 2 company, including a score in the Grade 1 Apple Blossom over the very talented Switch. NONE, zero, nada of the others in here have ever hit a triple Beyer in their lifetime! 2/5 at post time would be stealing. Much, MUCH the best.
5:07 11-Calder 6f Ponche Handicap 8 – Giant Ryan 5/2 *
Draws a great slot on the outside for his stalking-pressing running style. No superstars in this lineup, so shipping down from the higher quality NYRA circuit should make him formidable on that fact alone. Toss in the fact that he’s run back-to-back triple Beyers and he will go to post as odds-on. The only question is his ability to handle the unique Calder surface – it’s felled many an out-of-towner at short odds in the past; but if run on the track the way it appears to unfold on paper……he wins motored down, in a hand ride by daylight


5:39 10-Belmont Turf 10f Grade 1 Manhattan 4 – Gio Ponti 7/5
There are two ways to approach this race – either Gio Ponti is vulnerable off his long layoff and trip to Dubai…..or…..Gio Ponti will be a fair price today because he is off a layoff and trip to Dubai. Going back to his February 2010 five-year-old debut his speed figures have been: 100, 105*, 101, 100, 99, 100, 99, 102. He appears to me to be a model of consistency. And by looking at the numbers you certainly cannot tell if he is better fresh or with a race under his belt, or at a certain longer or shorter distance. He is as honest as the day is long, and appears to always run his race. Two rivals today, IF THEY RAN THE RACE OF THEIR LIFE, can match what he routinely runs….even when off a lengthy layoff and a trip to Dubai. In fact he had this very same pattern last year in this very same race and was just nailed on the wire by his stablemate after a horrendous ride that day. Looks very hard to go past in his comeback race today over a Belmont course that he has a stellar 8/5-3-0 record and at a distance he excels at: 6/3-2-0
6:35 11-Belmont 12f Grade 1 Belmont Stakes Race Analysis
1 – Master of Hounds (10/1) Probably the best “price play” in the field. He ran a deceptively good 5th in the Kentucky Derby (as my pick!) in spite of a wide starting position and having to weave his way through the 20 horse field; and this after making the trip across the globe from Dubai. Encouraging that top rider in North America, Garrett Gomez, sticks with him. Should the pace be hot on the front, he will be very dangerous. I’d be much more inclined to make him my top pick if he had not shipped all the way back to Dubai after that tough Kentucky Derby race and now back across “the pond” again for this, the “Test of Champions” at the grueling 1 ½ mile distance.
2 – Stay Thirsty (20/1) If you are a hunch/long-shot player he was impressive winning the one-mile Gotham. But since that surprising win, he’s been a non-factor flop in all his starts. Would be a big surprise today.
3 – Ruler On Ice (20/1) He’s won a maiden race sprinting and a bottom level allowance race at Philadelphia Park by a diminishing ¾ of a length. What makes his connections think he’s qualified off of that to go to racing’s elite stage? If he’s 20/1 you are being short changed – he’s at least 100/1 in real odds to win today.
4 – Santiva (15/1) He was the “wise guy” horse in the Derby having won his ONLY race in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club (for 2-year-olds). Winless as a three-year-old and really he’s never shown anything to merit consideration today. Was outfinished by Master of Hounds in the Derby for fifth without any apparent excuse, unlike the Master who had the aforementioned shipping issues to contend with.
5 – Brilliant Speed (15/1) Won a turf allowance race and then surprised on the synthetic at Keeneland to win the Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes. Never shown any real ability on dirt, and he was also outfinished by Master of Hounds in the Derby (they ran 5th by 5 ½, 6th by 5 ½, and 7th by 5 ½).
6 – Nehro (4/1) I’m glad he’s in the field – he’ll never win this. If I could make any mythical bet on the Belmont it would be $50 that Nehro does NOT win the Belmont! He’s one of those “teaser” horses….always looks like he’s right there, just about good enough to win a major stakes. But always disappoints on the finish line with a lot of people’s money on him. Nope, not for me in this lifetime.
7 – Monzon (30/1) At some point as an owner and/or trainer you have to admit what you’ve got……why would you take a horse that was a well beaten 5th in the Sam Davis stakes at little Tampa Bay Downs (and he was backing up through the stretch on top of that) – going 1 1/16th mile and bring him to the Grade 1 Belmont at 1 ½ mile? Obviously way, WAY over his head in here.
8 – Prime Cut (15/1) Was life and death to win an allowance-claiming event when you could have purchased him for $50K at the Fair Grounds. Now he’s in the Belmont? No, another case of owner/trainer dreaming.
9 – Animal Kingdom (2/1) The deserving favorite. He has “paired” Beyer speed figures, running back-to-back 103 figures – this is often a sign that a horse is ready to improve. And his best of 33 workout HERE over the Belmont track not only supports that theory, but indicates he will handle the sandy surface of Belmont Park (often an issue for horses who don’t regularly race in New York). But, much like my approach to the Preakness…..if you believed he was a long shot to win that race, how can you bet him as a short-priced favorite here? The obvious danger to upset any other selection.
10 – Mucho Macho Man (10/1) I didn’t like him when he ran in Florida. I didn’t like him when he ran in Kentucky. I didn’t like him when he ran in Maryland. And what’s worse, his form appears to be tailing off. Like Nehro, I’m glad he’s running, so he can draw in some money to the win pool for ME to take home! Also, as I pointed out in both the Derby and Preakness – his trainer, though a great “feel good story” with the heart transplant, is obviously not a reliable trainer….her current record for 2011: 60 starters, THREE wins….YIKES!
11 – Isn’t He Perfect (30/1) His last win was against runners who’d started in a claiming race. Was badly, BADLY beaten in the Preakness by over eleven lengths – and they think he can reverse that form? Well, WOW!
12 – Shackleford (9/2) So, what is the real story on this colt? He was 5th beaten over 23 lengths in the Fountain of Youth prior to the Florida Derby. Then he ran his eyeballs out at odds of 68/1 in the Florida Derby, getting outfinished by a “bad horse” in my opinion (Dialed In has yet to prove anything, check the stats!). Then he gets loose on a very easy lead in the Kentucky Derby and has every right to steal it, but falters late. But then when having to run faster and being pressed the entire way, he steals the Preakness and pays $27.20 to win! Toss that Fountain of Youth debacle and his speed figures look like this: 89 – 93 – 97 – 104  obviously an improving colt. The fact that trainer Dale Romans has been touting him as a candidate for three-year-old champion if he wins today tells me they think he is maturing at the right time, and has talent. Working in his favor today, in spite of the outside post is that of the SEVENTY-SIX race lines showing for all the runners in this race only SIX of them show another horse on the lead….and ONE, yes, ONE of those 76 races when a horse was in front came this year……Shackelford in contrast has been either ON the lead or within ½ length of the lead in EVERY race this year (except the Fountain of Youth). He is without question the only horse who wants and can win on the lead. This is a huge advantage, especially at this marathon distance. Even better, every other owner, trainer and jockey KNOWS he is the LONE SPEED, and to let him loose on the lead is almost to concede the race to him. So, it would be no surprise if another horse guns to the lead. But what the Preakness demonstrated is that Shackleford can press a front-runner and draw clear to win. Odds of 3/1 or better would be stealing on him.

Final Analysis: Shackleford leads them into the far turn with Master of Hounds and Animal Kingdom about midpack. Both of those runners make their move and are drawing within striking distance as they straighten for home. But Shackelford has had it all his own way for the first 1 ¼ miles, and he lengthens his stride to win by a clear two lengths or more. Animal Kingdom is outfinished for second by Master of Hounds to set up a $40+ exacta as the two favorites rarely run one-two!
6:35 11-Belmont 12f Grade 1 Belmont Stakes 12 – Shackleford 9/2
LONE speed for an improving colt who will looks to establish himself as the leader of the 3-year-old division. Would appear to have too much of a pace advantage to be conceded an easy lead here.