February 12 Selections - In Ohio (Brrr)

12:55    1-Gulfstream                6f         Claiming nw2L                                    5 – Champ Desire                    5/2                   

This race is pretty clear-cut…..every runner save two has already been beaten – and soundly – at this $15K 2L level with two exceptions.  The one contender is lightly raced with a maiden win at Philly and two double-digit losses (including not finishing his last), and is trained by an 0-10 trainer at the meet;  the other broke his maiden in late December and makes his first start against “winners” today FIRST OFF THE CLAIM for Team Calabrese who win with 37% of these kind……uh, yeah – he’s the pick!

1:21      2-Gulfstream                6f         AOC                                         2 – Bernie the Maestro             4/1                   

There is a wealth of speed in here, in fact nearly every runner does his best running on or pressing the pace;  with all the logical contenders having questions to answer, the race begs for a runner with finishing ability who is in current shape – such is the case with Bernie.  He has a race over the GP surface, a solid 4^th going a one-turn mile.  Though never having raced at today’s 6 panel distance he does show a couple of turf sprints when turning back, and in those efforts he was finishing strongly (in fact he was my selection and had huge traffic trouble at Monmouth this summer doing just that in the Anderson Fowler Stakes).  He’s worked since his January mile race and would appear to benefit from the pace flow today.

2:17      4-Gulfstream    Turf      8f         AOC                                         1 – Furthest Land                     5/1                   

The 2009 BC Dirt Mile winner has won on turf before – HERE!  So he can handle the grass, and it looks like he is the class of these in spite of his dismal performance in Meydan and his subsequent first start since the UAE trip here in the US.  But Furthest Land would be an even better selection should this race be washed off the grass in favor of the main track – at a one-turn mile.

2:45      5-Gulfstream    Turf      8.5f       Maiden Claiming                     4 – Sold the Farm                    7/2                   

Todd Pletcher-John Velazquez first-time starter appears equally well bred for both grass and the off-going.  An automatic selection when these connections send out a first-time or layoff 3-year-old.  Appears to be working well for his debut, and with a $75K tag it looks like Pletcher was shopping for a slightly softer spot than the traditional GP MSW races which are usually loaded with talented young runners.

3:13      6-Gulfstream                8f         AOC                                         9 – Equestrio                            6/1                   

Lightly raced Zito colt has shown considerable promise in his brief career;  he won a stretch duel to break his maiden at Churchill in November on BC weekend, then was brought to Florida where he came right back to win a tough race at this distance.  Normally you’d think a runner might regress off an effort like that, but Zito gave his charge six weeks since that race and he’s been working superbly, including a best of 65 bullet for today.  His stalk and finish style should play well in the pace flow, and from the outside post under Julien Leparoux.

4:16      8-Gulfstream                6f         Maiden Special                       11 – Backdown                        7/2                   

There could be some hidden talent in this MSW, as that is typical for 3-year-old MSW at Gulfstream, but in this runner you get a proven commodity – in his debut he broke poorly and was five-wide into the lane in a race that was a multiple KEY race;  he came back and was beaten 2 ½ lengths in another ULTRA KEY race in which the winner, Bretheren came back to score in stakes company and will go off as the heavy favorite at Tampa Bay today as he begins his journey on the Triple Crown trail; but the runner-up from that MSW race also came back to score, justifying the status of the race.  Backdown has been working strongly in South Florida with two bullets in his holster, including his most recent work 8 days ago, a best of 32 bullet work.

5:26      10-Gulfstream              7f         Gr. 2 GP Sprint Champ.           1 – Soaring Empire                  8/5                   

TODAY’S BEST

Not only has Soaring Empire won his lone three sprint tries, but one of them was HERE at today’s distance!  Not only has he won at the distance, but he is a multiple graded stakes placed horse and is a graded stakes winner HERE.  And he won that race on Opening Weekend, so you know he’s fit and in racing condition…..as evidenced by his two sharp works since that graded score.  AND…..his last three Beyers (101-105-106) ALL beat the best that any of the rest of the field have put up in their lifetime.  There are two candidates that could win, but I have questions……Tackleberry came out of an even 4^th to Soaring Empire to win a paceless Sunshine Millions Classic at 25/1;  he will be on the lead, but unless all the other riders are just plain clueless he won’t get away with a loose-on-the-lead effort today – especially not on the turnback from 9 panels.  Coffee Boy won the Grade 2 Smile Sprint over multiple graded winner D’Funnybone at the Summit of Speed, but has not raced since.  That race was bizarre as Coffee Boy had no chance of beating the classy D’Funnybone unless he ran poorly, which he did;  that race was restricted to 3-year-olds and Coffee Boy has to not only come off a long layoff, but must face older, and must deal with what appears to be a legitimate pace off that extended break.  Caixa Electronica put up a career best Beyer in his last at a one-turn mile and will be pressing the leaders, but he is likely to regress in this company facing quicker fractions and better company.