Feb 26 Ftn of Youth Recap

Feb 24 Recap - Another GREAT Day!

February 21 - A G-R-E-A-T Day!

A GREAT Day at the Races!

Kathmanblu - BEST of the Day Wins Gr 3 Rachel Alexandra

February 19 Selections

February 19 Gulfstream Selections

Feb 16 Picks

February 12 Selections - In Ohio (Brrr)

12:55    1-Gulfstream                6f         Claiming nw2L                                    5 – Champ Desire                    5/2                   

This race is pretty clear-cut…..every runner save two has already been beaten – and soundly – at this $15K 2L level with two exceptions.  The one contender is lightly raced with a maiden win at Philly and two double-digit losses (including not finishing his last), and is trained by an 0-10 trainer at the meet;  the other broke his maiden in late December and makes his first start against “winners” today FIRST OFF THE CLAIM for Team Calabrese who win with 37% of these kind……uh, yeah – he’s the pick!

1:21      2-Gulfstream                6f         AOC                                         2 – Bernie the Maestro             4/1                   

There is a wealth of speed in here, in fact nearly every runner does his best running on or pressing the pace;  with all the logical contenders having questions to answer, the race begs for a runner with finishing ability who is in current shape – such is the case with Bernie.  He has a race over the GP surface, a solid 4^th going a one-turn mile.  Though never having raced at today’s 6 panel distance he does show a couple of turf sprints when turning back, and in those efforts he was finishing strongly (in fact he was my selection and had huge traffic trouble at Monmouth this summer doing just that in the Anderson Fowler Stakes).  He’s worked since his January mile race and would appear to benefit from the pace flow today.

2:17      4-Gulfstream    Turf      8f         AOC                                         1 – Furthest Land                     5/1                   

The 2009 BC Dirt Mile winner has won on turf before – HERE!  So he can handle the grass, and it looks like he is the class of these in spite of his dismal performance in Meydan and his subsequent first start since the UAE trip here in the US.  But Furthest Land would be an even better selection should this race be washed off the grass in favor of the main track – at a one-turn mile.

2:45      5-Gulfstream    Turf      8.5f       Maiden Claiming                     4 – Sold the Farm                    7/2                   

Todd Pletcher-John Velazquez first-time starter appears equally well bred for both grass and the off-going.  An automatic selection when these connections send out a first-time or layoff 3-year-old.  Appears to be working well for his debut, and with a $75K tag it looks like Pletcher was shopping for a slightly softer spot than the traditional GP MSW races which are usually loaded with talented young runners.

3:13      6-Gulfstream                8f         AOC                                         9 – Equestrio                            6/1                   

Lightly raced Zito colt has shown considerable promise in his brief career;  he won a stretch duel to break his maiden at Churchill in November on BC weekend, then was brought to Florida where he came right back to win a tough race at this distance.  Normally you’d think a runner might regress off an effort like that, but Zito gave his charge six weeks since that race and he’s been working superbly, including a best of 65 bullet for today.  His stalk and finish style should play well in the pace flow, and from the outside post under Julien Leparoux.

4:16      8-Gulfstream                6f         Maiden Special                       11 – Backdown                        7/2                   

There could be some hidden talent in this MSW, as that is typical for 3-year-old MSW at Gulfstream, but in this runner you get a proven commodity – in his debut he broke poorly and was five-wide into the lane in a race that was a multiple KEY race;  he came back and was beaten 2 ½ lengths in another ULTRA KEY race in which the winner, Bretheren came back to score in stakes company and will go off as the heavy favorite at Tampa Bay today as he begins his journey on the Triple Crown trail; but the runner-up from that MSW race also came back to score, justifying the status of the race.  Backdown has been working strongly in South Florida with two bullets in his holster, including his most recent work 8 days ago, a best of 32 bullet work.

5:26      10-Gulfstream              7f         Gr. 2 GP Sprint Champ.           1 – Soaring Empire                  8/5                   

TODAY’S BEST

Not only has Soaring Empire won his lone three sprint tries, but one of them was HERE at today’s distance!  Not only has he won at the distance, but he is a multiple graded stakes placed horse and is a graded stakes winner HERE.  And he won that race on Opening Weekend, so you know he’s fit and in racing condition…..as evidenced by his two sharp works since that graded score.  AND…..his last three Beyers (101-105-106) ALL beat the best that any of the rest of the field have put up in their lifetime.  There are two candidates that could win, but I have questions……Tackleberry came out of an even 4^th to Soaring Empire to win a paceless Sunshine Millions Classic at 25/1;  he will be on the lead, but unless all the other riders are just plain clueless he won’t get away with a loose-on-the-lead effort today – especially not on the turnback from 9 panels.  Coffee Boy won the Grade 2 Smile Sprint over multiple graded winner D’Funnybone at the Summit of Speed, but has not raced since.  That race was bizarre as Coffee Boy had no chance of beating the classy D’Funnybone unless he ran poorly, which he did;  that race was restricted to 3-year-olds and Coffee Boy has to not only come off a long layoff, but must face older, and must deal with what appears to be a legitimate pace off that extended break.  Caixa Electronica put up a career best Beyer in his last at a one-turn mile and will be pressing the leaders, but he is likely to regress in this company facing quicker fractions and better company.



Sunday February 6 Recap

A pretty amazing day - highs and lows of racing....wow

February 5 - Donn Handicap Day

As you will see, it was a great day for picking winners, but the "BEST" of the day at both Gulfstream and in particular at Santa Anita disappointed and those two races profit the profit line for the day into the red :(  I was right on my co-best of the day when Twilight Candy romped in the Grade 2 Strub Stakes....VERY impressive!



February 5 - Donn Handicap Day! Gulfstream Selections / Simulcast Highlights

12:55    1-Gulfstream    Turf      5f         Claiming nw3L                         3 – M’s Will                              5/1                   

First time-Canani/Calabrese, and we get Ramon Dominguez on board.  Better yet, there is a ton of speed signed on today, and this one ALREADY (before Canani works his magic) is a stalker-finisher….and he is first time in a conditioned claimer.  Looks very live in here.

1:29      2-Gulfstream    Turf      8f         Maiden Special                        11 – Krismas Prospect             12/1                 

Made career debut in California in fall of ’09 and early winter ’10 sprinting on the turf;  transferred to Roger Atfield barn who has this one working well for return to the races…..Attfield 36% with a $4.50 ROI with layoff types.  Gets Jesus Castanon to ride and this one is bred all over the today’s turf route.

1:58      3-Gulfstream                9f         Allowance                                1 – Casper’s Touch                  7/2                   

It’s that time of year for promising 3-year-olds stretching out, connections looking for a Derby horse;  Such is the case here with what looks like a promising group;  Casper has yet to run a bad one, looked sharp drawing clear going a one-turn mile under the Twin Spires.  Trained by Kenny McPeek with go-to rider Julien Leparoux on board, Casper fired a best of 36 :59 and change bullet for this.  Should be able to get off the rail and stalk the pace to the far turn before opening up to give the hope of better things ahead to his connections.

2:27      4-Gulfstream    Turf      8f         Claiming                                  10 – Pointing North                  9/2                   

Lightly raced colt ran lights out by his Timeform numbers overseas, then came to North America and rattled off three out of four starts with 89 or higher Beyers.  Anything like that kind of effort gets him to the winner’s circle.  Appears to have a close-up, tracking style which should play well here.  Trainer Tom Albertrani a 19% off the layoff conditioner.  Interesting mix of runners, but he’s the clear Beyer leader.

2:55      5-Gulfstream                7f         AOC                                         3 – Yawanna Twist                   4/1       

As is SOOO typical for Gulfstream, there are several runners who could win this, and though “Twist” will probably be one of the favorites, I anticipate a fair price of around 2/1.  And that, my friend would be GRAND LARCENY!  Here’s a runner who debuted last year by stalking the pace and drawing clear handily by over five lengths in what turned out to be a KEY MSW race.  Right back in nw1x allowance and repeated the performance – stalked and again drew off by over 4 widening lengths, in what turned out to be a KEY allowance heat.  Off those two sprints he was sent routing in three consecutive graded stakes – 2^nd, beaten less than two lengths in the G 3 Gotham, then 2^nd beaten less than 3 in the G 3 Illinois Derby and then in his “worst” finish, he was fourth, beaten 1 ½ lengths in the Grade 1 Preakness!  Yowza!  Been off since the spring but has been sizzling in his A.M. drills for trainer Rick Dutrow.  Already proven to be able to win fresh, and in those two first races he was ridden by Ramon Dominguez, who is in town to ride today.  Looks formidable to me in spite of the layoff.

3:25      6-Gulfstream    Turf      8f         Allowance                                10 – Cozy Kitten                       9/2       

The card is loaded with toss-ups today – but again, it appears to me that Cozy Kitten has a real edge on these.  While several of these runners have proven themselves on the grass, none are standouts.  There is a Pletcher off-the-shelf 3-yo that looks dangerous, but hasn’t won on the grass.  With a fairly equal playing field, here’s the angle that leads us to the Cozy Kitty – he debuted this summer at Monmouth and was a debut winner on the turf, at today’s distance under today’s rider, Elvis Trujillo.  Right off of that MSW win he was sent to the Grade 3 Bourbon where he was a “best of the rest” 2^nd to dominant winner Rogue Romance.  That performance was good enough for me to make Rogue my choice in the BC Juv Turf, and when he went to the main track he was still stellar, running a good 3^rd behind superstar Uncle Mo.  Cozy Kitten finds MUCH softer company today, obviously, but – and here’s the kicker – he goes for red-hot trainer Wesley Ward, who is winning with 30% of his starters at GP, and with 31% of his starters with Trujillo up.  Cozy worked three consecutive 5 furlong morning drills in :59 in change, so he’s obviously ready today – and Ward is scoring with 32% of his layoff starters at a remarkable $2.55 per $2 invested.  Solid at a fair price!

3:52      7-Gulfstream    Turf      9f         Grade 3 Suwannee River          6 – It’s Tea Time                       9/2                   

Very competitive field of mares line up for today’s co-feature, and what makes it interesting is the lack of success – or even attempts at today’s nine furlong distance.  However, in It’s Tea Time we have a proven filly at the distance, who is multiple graded stakes placed, and is a graded winner at today’s distance, albeit on the main track.  SO if this for some reason comes off the grass – HUGE edge in here!  Though several qualify for the win, I like Tea Time for her ability to track mid-pack, that she’s ridden (again) by Julien Leparoux, and that she’s lightly raced.  Several of these are looking to rediscover their best day, it appears to me that Tea Time has yet to see her best day.  She was a “best of the rest” 4^th to the 3 dominant fillies/mares in the Breeders’ Cup Ladies’ Classic in her last after a troubled 4^th in the Grade 1 Spinster.  The “drop” into Grade 3 company should help move her up.  She’s fired two bullet works, including a best of 23 on the grass at Palm Meadows.  Sharp and ready today….

4:23      8-Gulfstream                7f         Maiden Special                        6 – California                            15/1                 

What a dilemma!  On the outside is a first-time starter from Todd Pletcher, with JR Velazquez on board – uh oh – who’s been working quickly for his debut.  But here in mid-pack is ANOTHER first-time starter for Pletcher!  Not working nearly as quickly, but that may not mean anything at today’s seven panels.  California is ridden by Eclipse-award-winning jockey Ramon Dominguez, and if he were running this afternoon in New York, California would be odds on.  Curious that Pletcher sends out a WinStar FTS (#12) to run in the same race as California as this runner was a $1 MILLIION Keeneland auction buy – you KNOW they have high expectations.  Can’t imagine what the owners, after plunking down that kind of cash, would say to Mr. Todd should his other runner beat this one to the wire (or worse, compromise his chances!).  Figuring the crowd will go with the “standard” Pletcher starter on the outside and we might get a bit of a price here.  Hoping afterwards the crowd is grumbling about how Pletcher scored at 3/1 or better with the best rider in America on a $1 million purchase…..but we’ll be holding the winning mutual ticket!

4:52      9-Gulfstream    Turf      9f         Grade 1 Gulfstream Turf H’Cap    8 – Battle of Hastings               3/1       

Gulfstream BEST

“PRIME TIME” in the co-featured Grade 1 GP Turf ‘Cap…..Even though Battle of Hastings is listed as the morning line favorite, I’ll be surprised if he doesn’t go to the gate at around 2/1, which is really over-inflated based on his ability.  What will make handicappers wary is the fact that since 2009 he has but a single win.  YIKES!  However, if you look through the 12 past performance lines you will only see two where he was beaten more than three lengths – and the worst loss was on soft ground, and the other was a 2 ¾ lgth loss in the Grade 1 Whittingham.  He is a legitimate Grade 1 runner, and he faces a somewhat suspect Grade 1 field.  Also, there are MANY runners who will be battling on or near the front end to set a late runner, like Battle of Hastings.  It is a positive that today he only faces a field of seven rivals, making his chances for trouble less likely; as was the case in his 2011 debut when facing a full field of eleven and he was checked in mid-stretch, yet was only beaten a length and a half.  Julien Laparoux, who has a bonafide reputation for getting a strong finish from his mounts, takes the ride-back today.  It’s also interesting that some may look at his career box at today’s distance and become even more wary:  4/1-2-0; however, I look back and see these most recent finishes at 9 furlongs:  A drawing clear victory in the G3 River City at Churchill, a 1 ¼ length loss in the G 1 Turf Classic at Churchill on what was labeled as “yielding” but was more accurately a bog at best, a photo loss by a head in the G 2 Oak Tree Derby to the Usual Q T, and an even closer photo loss, by a nose in the G 1 Del Mar Derby.  Big Time Today!

5:25      10-Gulfstream               9f         Grade 1 Donn Handicap           6 – Fly Down                            7/2                   

THE Feature race of the day, the signature Grade 1 Donn has an all-star cast.  Anyone of these could win today and it would be little surprise; however it appears to this handicapper that the Donn has a nearly identical race-shape as the prep race, the Grade 3 Hal’s Hope.  In that race it appeared that two of the strongest candidates – Rule and the highly regarded Morning Line – would be compromised by their similar running styles, on the front end.  And that day I picked Soaring Empire to jump up and run big from off the pace.  Exactly correct that day!  Well, today Rule and Morning Line are both back, and probably both are even a bit sharper today.  With Morning Line drawn inside, he should get an early advantage, but with Rule firing a very quick bullet work for this, he will be hounding the top one.  Just inside Morning Line is the very quick Hear Ye Hear Ye who only knows front-end quickness.  This seems to be setting the race up for a finisher, and we have a proven top-quality late runner in Fly Down.  He lost his last two races, but check them out – a late running third two back in the Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup to the loose-on-the-lead, horse-for-the-course Haynesfield with Blame (next out BC Classic winner) in 2^nd; then in his last he was third in the Breeders’ Cup Classic in spite of being both steadied and checked – to Blame and Horse of the Year Zenyatta.  No such runners like those today, and with a hot pace, look for Julien Leparoux – hey, is he personally riding ALL my picks today! – to make a decisive move from off the pace.  Is he fit enough?  Well, the pace certainly makes his job easier, but firecracker-hot Nick Zito has him razor sharp with back to back sizzling workouts – 2^nd best in a minute flat on Jan 22, and then a best of 31 bullet work on the 31^st.  Proven fresh – off the shelf he won an allowance HERE from mid-pack last winter, and a multiple graded stakes winner at the distance, he looks much the best today!

5:50      11-Gulfstream               6.5f       Maiden Special                        6 – Blimey                                20/1                 

Maiden Specials – 3-year-olds – and lo and behold a single Pletcher/Velazquez first-timer!  A couple of others in here should get some play allowing Blimey to be a somewhat fair price.  Strong works for this, including a Jan 18 best of 18 bullet, followed up by an even quicker work January 23.  Looks like a good way to close a very special day of racing here in Hallandale!

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2:24      5-Aqueduct                   6f         Maiden Claiming                      4 – Hokusai                              7/2                   

Takes the most powerful drop in racing today going from Maiden Specials to Maiden Claiming.  Even better, was right up on the pace, so has one of the most powerful angles à ESP-Class Drop!  Even better, the last was his debut, so every right to improve, AND he was dueling on the front end through a very quick :45 and change half – AND that was against a 7/5 favorite!  Add to the mix that Bruce Levine’s runners improve second start, Liftin quote “..by leaps and bounds…” – at a 21% win rate;  Levine also 26% with 1^st Lasix, like today.  Throws on a bug rider for weight advantage – LONG gone here

2:49      6-Tampa           Turf      8f         Claiming                                  1 – General Charley                  20/1     

Obviously the linemaker has lost his mind…..or he has some really good inside information.  In the General you get a runner who has won 10 turf races, including 5 in a row last summer (and 6 of his last 8);  the General appears to be the LONE speed, and he’s on the rail!  And he has the ability to track a kamikaze front-runner.  Add to this that he goes first off the claim for super-trainer Jamie Ness, a 31% winning angle; and that Ness has enlisted Luis Gonclaves who wins 38% of his mounts for Ness.  So how is General Charley 20/1?  Only if he looked at his last race, which was off a layoff, here at Tampa on the sloppy main and he was 8^th beaten 17 lengths….but come on, seriously?  I’ll be surprised to get 9/5!

4:10      9-Tampa                       7f         The Super Stakes                     6 – Capt. Candyman Can          2/1       

Tampa BEST!

A value handicapper would look elsewhere as there is every reason to believe that the Captain has not been pointing for a $75K stake at Tampa as his goal for the winter; and there are some alternate runners who have every right to win, if he falters.  But let’s consider this….. In this field of ten, there are five horses who have run in graded company, none in a Grade 1, and of those there is a single G3 winner; Capt. Candyman Can has twice run in Gr 1 company, and has a G 1 win, has run in four G 2 races (won 1, place in two), and has won 2 Grade 3’s;  Capt. Candyman is 4-for-4 at this unique 7 f distance;  Capt. Candyman Can has won fresh, off a layoff 3 our of 4 times – one of those being in the Grade 2 Hutcheson at 7 furlongs! 

And the only time he did NOT win fresh, was when he ran a “best of the rest” second to

5:03      4-Santa Anita                8f         Grade 1 Las Virgenes               6 – Turbulent Descent              4/5

BEST BET OF THE WEEKEND!This filly is special – she is starting down the road to the Kentucky Oaks where she will be part of a special field if all the contenders I’ve seen so far make it.  She has won three consecutive starts to begin her career, including the Grade 1 Hollywood Starlet in her last – all while “in hand.”  She’s been working nicely for this, and her last work, a best of 31 bullet in a sizzling :59.1 seconds shows she is on her “A”” game.  As Brad Free said, “….it would take unforeseen circumstances for her to lose today…..”  MUCH the best at a very short price.  Here’s hoping all those “value handicappers” let her odds float up to 2/5 or better.

Quality Road

who set a track record that day!  So he can fire fresh, will he today?  He’s rattled off not one, but two bullets for today’s race, and his most recent work was, though not a bullet, a very quick work.  Finally, he is the lone runner to have posted a triple Beyer – and he has three of them!  Even if not at his best, he should take his 2011 debut in hand.

January 2011 Highlights!

30 Days of handicapping, reduced into nine minutes of video highlights....check it out!