April 9 & 10 Recap

Apr 3 Fla Derby Recap

April 2 - Gulfstream Park Oaks Day

Fla Derby Analysis

Check out my full card selections below - and below that a horse-by-horse analysis of these stakes races.

Florida Derby Day Selections

12:55 1-Gulfstream 6f Claiming 10 – Bidham 8/1
A very suspect group of claimers going in the opener today. Several have proven that they are not good enough to win at the $25K level, and several have proven they aren’t good enough to win…..period. In Bidham you get an interesting horse – here is a guy that through last December was in high end allowance races and an occasional stakes effort; and none of those were bad efforts. Well, he’s five now, and probably a tad slower, so they dropped in for a $40K tag and he ran evenly against some quality runners. Another drop to the $25K level and he had trouble and was well beaten. Off those two efforts I’d probably toss him as a contender, until you note that he was claimed by a new barn that day. He has worked twice since then, and this outfit wins nearly 20% of the time with “first off the claim” runners. Doesn’t hurt that the leading rider, J.J. Castellano is on board today. And at a nice price…..I’m going for a nice upset at double the investment! Whoo Hoo…..come on Bidham!

1:25 2-Gulfstream 6f Maiden Special 2 – Ice Cream Man 10/1
There are two “angles” that when they appear in the Daily Racing Form’s past performances for Gulfstream Park, they are an “automatic” bet for me. It doesn’t matter about the class level, the distance, the surface, prior racing experiences….nothing. One of them is here  when trainer Todd Pletcher sends out a 3-year-old in a Maiden Special race at Gulfstream Park, and John Velazquez is on board….end of story. That’s the play. They win a very high percentage of these, and are usually the favorite. But sometimes, if you are lucky (like today) you find a runner that appears to be going off at a really juicy price.

1:55 3-Gulfstream 7f Grade 2 Swale Stakes 6 – Travellin Man 2/1
I looked….I really looked for someone to beat Travellin Man. I did NOT want to go with the favorite in here. But in spite of my questions about Travellin Man, the others have even more questions to answer. If he even remotely approaches that debut win, then he is so far in front you’ll be able to go get a hot dog after he crosses the wire and STILL see the rest of the field finish the race! And if he does win – with authority – it will confirm my selection for today’s feature race, the Grade 1 Florida Derby! Double the investment and take the short price.

2:25 4-Gulfstream 8f Maiden Special 9 – Hammersmith 9/2
Maiden 3-year-olds…..Gulfstream Park……Trainer: Todd Pletcher……Jockey: John Velazquez. What did I tell you? Were you listening earlier? Did we all get Ice Cream? It doesn’t matter if he won or not – this is a “tried and true” angle. As if this angle in and of itself isn’t enough, how about this. Two races back, in his debut he ran second to Heron Lake, and finishing third that day was Arch Traveller. So….??? Well Arch Traveller came back to win with a BIG number, and then won in allowance company and is running today in the Florida Derby! Here we go!

2:56 5-Gulfstream 8f AOC 8 – Christmas For Liam 4/1 *
Oh come all ye faithful…..MERRY CHRISTMAS!!!! Who’s Liam?  Today is our lucky day. Christmas For Liam looks like a solid contender today for win honors, and we might be lucky enough to get 2/1 on him. One handicapping key at a very select number of tracks – one of them being Gulfstream – is when races are run at the distance of one mile. At nearly all North American tracks a one mile race starts in front of the grandstand and the horses go around twice. But at Gulfstream (and at Belmont Park in New York, Churchill Downs in Louisville, and Arlington Park in Chicago) the track is configured in such a way that a one mile race starts W-A-Y back down the backstretch and the race is like a super-long sprint….it’s called a “one-turn mile.” Well, it is a statistical fact, and a very solid handicapping angle that horses who have proven to be able to win one-turn mile races, often do so again. Check out the past record of Christmas For Liam. He’s run at a one-turn mile twice…..both times BIG WINS! He comes from mid-pack to rally with an electric turn of foot on the turns….today there are four horse who will battle on the lead and set up his late run. He’s trained by Todd Pletcher and ridden by Johnny Velzaquez. WOW. Anything else – YES….since his scintillating win in late February he has had sparkling workouts – bullet works (fastest workout of the morning) not once, not twice, not three times, but four times. And finally – there’s more? YES! That last big win…..the horse that ran second came right back to win his next race, making that what’s called a “KEY RACE” – another solid handicapping angle! TRIPLE the investment here.

3:38 6-Gulfstream 6.5f Sir Shackleton H’Cap 2 – D’Funnybone 5/1
On last year’s Florida Derby card D’Funnybone was my “BEST” of the Day. I’ve won several times with him – one other notable win was with Mr. Jeff Nelson playing along on Graduation set-up day last spring. But after tailing off in his last two starts of 2010 D’Funnybone was given a long break. His works seem to indicate he will run well today. His last workout was at six furlongs, and the time of the work – 1:11 – would be fast enough to win most sprint races at most tracks…..that’s a sharp work. Three back the five furlong work in :59.4 is dazzling. He’s ready. He’s the class of the field. He will sit off the pace to the turn, make his move three wide, and like last year will draw off through the lane…..double the bet.

4:00 7-Gulfstream Turf 8f Allowance 7 – Hilarous 7/2
Turf races are won by horses who have won on the turf; “Class tells on the grass” is the racing adage. If you looked at the records of this field of eleven, the TEN horses other than the selection have a COMBINED turf record of 8 wins from 55 starts – Hilarous, alone, has 4 wins from 19 starts. The field has a combined record on the turf AT GULFSTREAM of 2 wins in 16 tries; Hilarous: 2 wins in 5 starts. Strong human connections – and you can toss the last race that most racing fans will be looking at – it was on the main track….Hilarous runs best on grass.

4:33 8-Gulfstream Turf 8f Grade 3 Appleton Stk 1 – Little Mike 3/1
TODAY’S BEST BET
Little Mike has done little wrong over the last six months. Over that period of time he’s raced on the turf eight times and has collected the winner’s share of the purse SIX times! He has won two stakes races, and finished second in another. In races at about one mile over that span he’s been ridden by Joe Bravo in all six of them, and he’s won all of them! What is truly amazing is that he has won at BIG prices in spite of this record. Just look three races back when he won the Grade 3 Fort Lauderdale HERE and paid $27.80….even I did not have him that day….bad decision Mark! And here is the REALLY scary part – in all of the eight races he has set the pace from the gate to the stretch. In the one race where he ran second, it appears he was held back from running freely by the one rider who rode him besides Joe Bravo; in the other race he was going 1 1/8th mile in Grade 1 company – too far, and against too good of competition…but even then he led to mid-stretch before giving way grudgingly. And even scarier – the two times he wired the fields (in stakes races) here at Gulfstream this winter – he set the pace when breaking from a far outside post. The Gr 3 Fort Lauderdale – he was in the 11 slot…..at Gulfstream this winter there have been one mile turf races with a horse starting in post 9 or wider 203 times – only 12 of them have won (specifically from post 11 only 4 of 47)……today Little Mike has the rail and will easily get to the front. He is L-O-N-G gone as today’s best bet.

5:06 9-Gulfstream 9.5f Grade 3 Skip Away 11 – Jackson Bend 12/1
UPSET SPECIAL!
If you read my stakes analysis you’ll know I’ve been a big fan of this guy for two years. I truly believe he is a better horse than his past performances show, and I believe that he will win some big races now that he is back to his original trainer and rider. His last race was a sneaky good race. But, the good news for us today is that it does not APPEAR to be a good race on paper. His best effort last year was at this distance; he improves today with a race under his belt. All the stars are aligned, and if today truly is his day, we may be dancing down the sidewalks of the Villages of Gulfstream today!


5:42 10-Gulfstream 9f Grade 1 Florida Derby 8 – Flashpoint 5/1
I’ll be the first to admit, this race puzzles me. I don’t like Soldat; I’ve never liked Soldat; and after he won both his last races in impressive fashion, I STILL don’t like Soldat. To Honor and Serve would not surprise me, but I think he’s a better gamble in his next race or even the Kentucky Derby. Arch Traveller shouldn’t win – but hey, that’s horse racing. Bowman’s Causeway, Shackleford both don’t deserve to be here today. Stay Thirsty SHOULD be in New York for next week’s Wood Memorial, and he would have been a “best” bet for me there….but his works for this have been discouraging. Do you really think his trainer would be experimenting with blinkers today if he had confidence in his ability? Me either. Dialed In – so many people are big fans. I wasn’t the day he won the Holy Bull, in fact in my recap video I remarked that he wasn’t nearly as impressive as it appeared. So that brings us to Flashpoint. Three-year-olds are notorious, especially at this time of year for running races that leave the racing public saying, “Huh….go figure!” In his debut he was let go at 4/1 and dominated the race – the runner-up came back to win. In his first start against winners, here in the Grade 2 Hutcheson he was allowed to go off at nearly 7/1 and he dominated the race. The runner-up is the favorite in the Swale (race 3) – a score by Travellin Man there, especially an impressive win and I’ll be upping my investment. Flashpoint has been dominant in both his starts. He’s never lost, and I don’t have nearly as many questions about him as all the others. At least double the investment…..

Florida Derby Day Stakes Analysis

Race 3: Grade 2 Swale Stakes – 7 furlongs
1:55 pm For 3-year-olds – Purse: $150,000

1-Black N Beauty Jky: P Lopez (19%) Trn: D. Romans (10%)
Black N Beauty debuted here at Gulfstream on January 7 going a one-turn mile (8 furlongs) and won going gate to wire on the front. He showed good speed that day when sent off at 5/2 in allowance company. Off that effort he stepped up in class to the Grade 3 Holy Bull, going again, a one-turn mile. He dueled on the front into mid-stretch before caving in to the highly regarded Dialed In (one of the favorites in today’s Florida Derby. He turned back to today’s distance of 7 furlongs a month later in the Grade 2 Hutcheson Stakes, a prep race for today’s Swale, and had big trouble at the start, and was pulled up. He has worked quickly since that poor outing, so he appears in good physical shape. With the inside draw along the rail he should show speed at least to the turn. If he is your horse you know you will be excited early – the question is, when they turn for home will he have enough to keep going?

2-Razmataz Jky: J. Castellano (17%) Trn: T. Pletcher (27%)
He too debuted in January in allowance company for the ultra-strong team of trainer Todd Pletcher with go-to rider John Velazquez; and like Black Beauty, he was in allowance company for that January victory. Much like Black Beauty Razmataz came back in the Gr 2 Hutcheson. He stalked the pace for a half mile and then could not keep pace, finishing fourth beaten over 11 lengths. It is a good sign that Pletcher – who doesn’t win the most races in the nation every year because he GUESSES where to run his horses (duh) – enters him here….he must believe he has more talent than he showed in the Hutcheson. But I am not encouraged that jockey Velazquez is not riding today. True, you get the top jockey at Gulfstream in JJ Castellano; and Razmataz has worked quickly and appears ready. I have questions…..

3-Little Drama Jky: J. Bravo (16%) Trn: D.Fawkes (16%)
Little Drama was a sensation last summer at Calder as a two-year-old; as much for his talent and eagerly anticipated debut, as for the fact that his big brother (appropriately named Big Drama) won the Breeders’ Cup Sprint this fall at Churchill Downs (running right past me in our 4th row seats!). He ran a disappointing 2nd in that maiden debut, but came right back – as a maiden (had not won a race) in STAKES company (multiple, quality winners) and won off by nine widening lengths – demonstrating to his supporters that he truly had talent. But then began the roller coaster – a well beaten 6th in his next (another stakes) as the HEAVY favorite; then dropped into much easier allowance company he was again the favorite and eeked out a photo finish win. Toss his next when he tried going a mile and a sixteenth, he’s a sprinter ….. then he made his 3-year-old debut in the aforementioned Gr 2 Hutcheson. He rallied from the back and was third best of nine that day. If he takes a step forward – which is likely since the Hutcheson was his first race in four months, and if he runs his best he could be a factor at a price.

4-Indiano Jky: J.Leparoux (12%) Trn: M.Wolfson (15%)
Trainer Marty Wolfson is a clever fellow. He is based at Calder, but over the last few years he has gained a national reputation that when he runs a horse AWAY from Calder, he means business, and usually has a good chance. Indiano ran his first five races in Panama, and was a sensation – never losing, and no one was ever closer than about 4 lengths to him. He was sent off at 3/1 in his US and Gulfstream debut a month ago in allowance company. He sat just off the pace, which was not fast in comparison to the pace he will see today from MUCH better rivals, and rallied late to be 2nd, beaten a half a length. I like the jockey change to Julien Leparoux; he often rides Wolfson runners out of town, so with these human connections I would give him an upset chance; but on paper he looks overmatched.

5-Metalight Jky: R.Maragh (13%) Trn: R.Spatz ( 4%)
Very interesting……He was 4th in his stakes debut at Tampa in December sprinting ¾ of a mile. Then he tried a two-turn one mile stakes on the grass here in the Dania Beach; he actually led at the top of the stretch before fading to fourth. Off that effort he went 1 1/16th mile in the Hallandale Beach Stakes, again on the grass and was a well-beaten 9th. In his latest he went to Ocala to run in the Ocala Breeders’ Sprint Stakes, where he won. Two things to note….I have observed over the years that horses who perform well in these special Ocala stakes often run well afterwards – that’s a good thing! However, recently Ocala changed their track to a synthetic surface, replacing the dirt surface …. Gulfstream is traditional dirt. So you are left to ponder – was it the synthetic surface, or the return to sprinting that turned Megalith’s fortunes around? You are nearly certain to get a fair price today.



6-Travlein Man Jky: J.Velazquez (19%) Trn: T.Pletcher (27%)
Without question, Travelin Man will be the short priced favorite. If he wins I would expect him to pay about $3.00 for a $2.00 bet – not very rewarding in the Owner’s Competition…..but hey, if he wins, you win! It is foreboding that Trainer Todd Pletcher (remember he has entered Razmataz) has Johnny Velazquez riding here instead of on his other entry. Travelin Man is a deserving favorite – based on paper. But often with three-year-olds their performance can change on the turn in the direction of the wind – good, or bad! Travellin Man made his career and 3-year-old debut in early January here and somehow was allowed to pay $7.20 for the win when he drew off by seven widening lengths. That is mind boggling to me because as a Gulfstream regular you KNOW that any 3-year-old maiden sent out by Todd Pletcher and ridden by John Velazquez is an automatic winning selection….duh! I had him that day – horray for me! What no one could have predicted was that he would earn a Beyer Speed Figure of 106. To put that in perspective, Breeders’ Cup Sprint winner Big Drama this past fall earned only a slightly higher rating in that Grade 1 championship. Certainly Travellin Man appeared to have talent. However, two red flags appear on my radar screen….first, the colt he beat that day – Ninja Blade – has come back to try and break his maiden not once, not twice, but three times; all as the favorite based on his loss first to Travellin Man; then on his subsequent runner-up performances to “quality” horses. I think it may be a bit of a tell that Ninja Blade has not won yet, that the horses he was beaten by may be over rated. Adding to this theory is the fact that when Travellin Man came back to make his next start it was in the Grade 2 Hutcheson. He was sent off as the 3/5 heavy favorite and was well beaten – 2nd by over seven lengths. Hmmm. However, to further muddle the waters, the winner of that stakes, Flashpoint is running in the Florida Derby today – is he that good? And Travellin Man was a clear, “best of the rest” second that day…..but third that day was the inconsistent Little Drama. Hmmmm. And it is also true that this runner-up performance was in Travellin Man’s first try against winners – often the most difficult race of a young horse’s life – and not only was he facing winners that day, but experienced STAKES winners…and he ran 2nd. Very mixed feelings here. Logical. Well deserving favorite. But if he loses, I’ll be the first to shake my head and say, “I’m not surprised.”



































Race 6: The Sir Shackleton Handicap – 6 ½ furlongs
(Would be more appropriately named the “Once they were great, but now we don’t know how good they are Stakes”)
3:28 pm For 4-year-olds and older – Purse: $67,000

1-Coffee Boy Jky: L.Saez ( 8%) Trn: M.Wolfson (14%)
Coffee Boy will ALWAYS be remembered in my racing mind for his victory in the Grade 2 Carry Back stakes on Summit of Speed Day last July at Calder. That day, in a small field of four there was multiple grade 2 winner D’Funnybone against three HIGHLY OVERMATCHED rivals. I told my wife that day that even if D’Funnybone ran around backwards, stopped for a drink, and continued on he would win. As we stood at the rail awaiting the start I added that the only horse with a remote chance was Coffee Boy, but I’d seen him run in allowance company and he CLEARLY was not as good as one of my favorite horses, D’Funnybone. Well, that’s why they run the races….Coffee Boy’s career race was that day as he won. From that July win until mid-February he was unraced. He came back in the Grade 2 Gulfstream Sprint Championships, and surprisingly was 4/1 in a field of 8. He showed his “true colors” that day – a well beaten 6th. Now, those who want to believe he will run back to that Carry Back victory will point out that the February race was his first in over six months, and he deserves a pass. That may be true, but if he wins, it will be without my money. Granted, I carry a personal grudge for him beating “my” D’Funnybone, and I’ll never forgive him for that 

2-D’Funnybone Jky: E.Prado ( 6%) Trn: R.Dutrow (24%
Well, well, well…..look who’s running today! Indeed – ahhh, sweet revenge! That’s what my heart tells me – the question is, do I bet that way? On last year’s Florida Derby Day card, D’Funnybone was my “Bet of the Day” in the Swale, and he was a dominant winner. On Belmont Day he was a prime-time pick for both myself and the famous Jeff Nelson (asst. principal and admin extraordinaire at Cypress Bay High) in the Grade 2 Woody Stephens in New York. But then he lost the Carry Back, and then he was 7th beaten TWENTY lengths in his last (a stakes race at Saratoga in August). So, what to do with this guy, coming off a seven month break? On the positive side, he has been working very well, and looks to be well prepared. On the negative side, his trainer is only 13% with return runners like this; on the positive side, this is the first time that D’Funnybone has NOT been in graded stakes company since his second career start in July ’09. The question that brings to mind is: Is he facing softer today as a confidence builder and he’s a runaway winner, or, is he being placed in this softer competition because the last race has shown his connections that he is not as good as he once was? I believe in D’Funnybone, in my heart….but is that because he’s “my horse?” What a dilemma – but nothing would be sweeter than to see him kick Coffee Boy’s tail…..ha ha ha, ahhhh, sweet revenge!

3-Regal Ransom Jky: A.Garcia (17%) Trn: bin Suroor Saeed ( 0%)
Oh my! How good is this guy? He won the Group 2 United Arab Emirates Derby in March ’09 and appeared to finally be the powerful Godolphin Stables Kentucky Derby winner they have tried to breed and/or buy for over a decade. But after dueling on the front in the May ’09 Kentucky Derby he faded to 8th. But he came back to win the Grade 2 Super Derby; he was so highly regarded that he was sent to the Breeders’ Cup Classic – THE Championship race of the year where he led the field into the stretch before being overtaken by the great Zenyatta. He was a credible 4th last summer in a Grade 2, and appeared to have regained his form when he won a $100K allowance race at Saratoga – the mecca of North American racing. But when returned to graded races he has been beaten 19 lengths and 11 lengths in his last two starts. Where as D’Funnybone’s appearance in this non-graded race raises questions, I think this is clearly a very bad sign that Regal Ransom shows up here. On his best day he would, and maybe should win. But I’m not a fan, in spite of his sparkling works demonstrating he may be ready for a top effort. Take him at your own peril – if you are right, everyone else will say, “Why didn’t I think of that?”

4-Safe Trip Jky: J.Castellano (17%) Trn: C.Brown (27%)
Safe Trip won an allowance race at Churchill Downs in May 2010, then ran a good third to the highly talented Discreetly Mine in the Grade 3 Jersey Shore last July 4. He had not won another race until his last, here at Gulfstream, again in allowance company. He won that day in spite of some trouble, and it is a good sign that the third place finisher that day came back to win – but he appears out of his league if any of the top contenders run their race. But, hey, he’s got a win over the track this year……you never know…..

5-Ibboyee Jky: J.Velazquez (19%) Trn: T.Pletcher (27%)
Highly regarded after running second to D’Funnybone in last year’s Swale, he won two listed stakes (minor stakes races) since then. He has not run since being beaten 17 lengths in a New York state-bred stakes (probably comparable to today’s race). Not taking a Pletcher-Velazquez horse seriously at Gulfstream is always, ALWAYS a bad idea. Don’t toss this one so readily – today’s race may not be about who HAS been the best, but more about who is BEST TODAY!
6-Our Edge Jky: J.Bravo (16%) Trn: N.Zito (15%)
Our Edge was last seen in the Grade 3 Mr. Prospector here at Gulfstream. That race made national headlines when the winner, Breeders’ Cup Sprint winner Big Drama, set the Gulfstream track record (as my “Best” of the day). The runner-up that day is a multiple graded winner; so for Our Edge to run third was saying something – some might argue that it was a two-horse race and SOMEONE had to finish third. Our Edge will most likely be the pace setter, and if allowed to steal away to the lead without having to run very fast, he could be troublesome to reel in through the stretch. Typically on big racing days (like today), the track is “souped up” by the maintenance crew to produce very fast times, which favors horses on the lead. An interesting upset possibility – or he could be in front to the turn and finish last. Hmmmm.

7-Unbridled Heat Jky: E.Trujillo (11%) Trn: D.Braddy ( 8%)
He just raced last Sunday! In a turf two-turn 1 1/16th mile race, and today he’s back sprinting? OK, so he won twice HERE, sprinting last year. But he’s never been in a race of this quality, and was 5th to Safe Trip two back – and it appears that Safe Trip is overmatched. He would be your best pick if you are going for the “I don’t think he stands a chance, but I’m a fan of the longshots” type of horse.

8-Capt. Candyman Can Jky: J.Leparoux (12%) Trn: I.Wilkes ( 2%)
Capt. Candyman Can was one of my favorite 3-year-old sprinters in 2009, and I won with him in the King’s Bishop when he paid over $9.00. But after being beaten in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint in November 2009, he was away from the races until February 2011! YIKES! But in that minor stakes race at Tampa he was my “BEST” of the day and he won – in spite of a jockey objection and fraudulent steward’s inquiry into the stretch run (it was not allowed and he was posted the official winner – I collected over $60!). That was in early February. Do we look at that race as a good first step back, and he’s ready to make a second step forward today? Or was that over questionable company, and he barely won that race? I personally would feel more comfortable in picking him on top if today’s race was at 7 furlongs instead of 6 ½ furlongs as the Capt. Is a 7-furlong specialist. Probably willing to take a timid stand against in here – but he has every right to win if he’s anywhere near as good as he was in his last.
































Race 8: Grade 3 The Emirates Airline Appleton Stakes – 1 mile - TURF
4:33 pm For 4-year-olds and older – Purse: $100,000

1-Little Mike Jky: J.Bravo (16%) Trn: D.Romans (10%)
Never, ever dismiss a Joe Bravo ridden horse on the turf. In spite of this “duh-hello” rule, he’s won two stakes races here at Gulfstream this winner paying $27.80 and $12.80 WITHOUT my betting on him….sigh…..It’s hard to believe that this happened in retrospect. Last year he won 4 of 7 starts, and was second, and those included high level allowance and stakes races. His lone loss (in three starts) this winter was when he tried Grade 1 competition at 1 1/8 mile, which is probably a notch better than he is capable and clearly at a distance he does not prefer. What makes this guy an even scarier proposition today is (a) he is 4 for 5 (with the other start being a second) at this one mile distance AND he is clearly most comfortable when running on the front end. This too has got to strike fear into the hearts of his rivals today as he has been clear on the lead in all three starts (yes, even the Grade 1) into the stretch IN SPITE OF STARTING ON THE OUTSIDE in each start – he wired the Grade 3 Ft. Lauderdale three back from post 11 – it is nearly impossible to win a one-mile turf race from anything farther out than post six or seven! And today, he has the rail – the shortest path to the front and the finish……very, VERY, VERY dangerous.

2-Cherokee Artist Jky: R.Dominguez (30%) Trn: G.Motion (21%)
Strong human connections make you pay attention here. Today is this veteran’s third start off a break – often a horse’s peak performance. He has only one win from eight starts on the grass, and is winless in four starts at the one-mile distance, but he has been second twice and third once. And if you need any more encouragement to take a shot here, the Artist was a head bobbing photo away from winning the Grade 3 Canandian Turf HERE at one-mile last season at odds of 26-1. Uh oh…..longshot potential!

3-Nicanor Jky: J.Leparoux (12%) Trn: M.Matz (12%)
This horse broke on the scene two years ago with a national audience of racing fans dying for his success – why? He is the little brother to the ill-fated Barbaro (who won the Kentucky Derby after taking the Florida Derby). Nicanor took a couple of starts to get going and then won some allowance races – 3 to be exact. But he’s never been quite able to break through at the stakes level. There are always a contingent of fans who bet him “hoping” that “today is the day he breaks through” and fulfills his potential. Can it be today? Well, his connections obviously believe in him still, and today he is second time off a long break; AND he had serious trouble in his last. He could break through today……willing to bet on it?

4-Sayif Jky: H.Berrios ( 0%) Trn: P.Biancone (17%)
Ok – why is he in here today? He has never run beyond a sprint distance, and has had very little success doing that (16 starts and only two wins). He was in Group (graded stakes terminology in Europe) company in Great Britain before making his first start in North America this past February in California. A non-threatening 4th, going six and one half furlongs down the mountain-side course of Santa Anita, he was then shipped here for allowance company – sprinting again. Well beaten seventh of seven. And now he is in a graded stakes going a mile in graded company? Go figure!

5-Commandeered Jky: J.Velazquez (19%) Trn: T.Pletcher (27%)
Always a dangerous thing when a Pletcher horse shows up in a place that they don’t appear to belong. Ole’ Mr. Pletcher doesn’t run horses unless they have a shot. Commandeered had never been on grass until his last start. He prompted the pace and drew off with authority in allowance company. His best races are when he runs on the lead, and there is quality speed in here. But, Pletcher…in a stakes at a big price….very interesting.

6-Rivera Cocktail Jky: G.Gomez (--) Trn: K.McLaughlin (21%)
Last winter this guy was within two lengths of some of the best turf runners in California. And those were solid stakes efforts. But when he dropped into allowance company he was a very narrow winner over much lesser. Back into quality stakes races this winter he’s been well beaten, again. He ships across the country after being badly beaten in a Grade 2 race going 1 ½ miles in California. And the top jockey in the country (in town for the big day today) Garret Gomez has been enlisted to ride. Like so many others in here, very interesting.




7-Successful Mission Jky: E.Trujillo (11%) Trn: E.Plesa (15%)
A winner of four of his last six races – including a win over Cherokee Artist in his last – this runner also likes to run on the front end. He’s only been in two stakes races – he won one of them in his second career start as a 2-year-old in 2008, and he was solidly beaten in his most recent stakes. Longshot city…..

8-Asphalt Jky: J.Castellano (17%) Trn: E.Kenneally (11%)
Of all the runners testing Little Mike today, this one is probably the most likely to give him trouble. He just missed in his last, despite coming off a six week break, and he ran in many three-year-old grass stakes races last year. He was often close, but didn’t win any of them. He gets a tremendous upgrade in riders today as top jockey JJ Castellano hops on board today. It would be an upset, but he’s been well played against top company before – just never broken through. His stalking style would play very well today if Little Mike’s front-running tactics are challenged. Today the day?

9-Mikoshi Jky: J.Lezcano (14%) Trn: M.Matz (12%)
Consistency equals class in turf racing, and this runner has been first, second, or third in 13 of 15 turf starts. He has a master trainer (Michael Matz – trainer of Barbaro previously mentioned) and an underrated rider in Jose Lezcano, who I believe is a MUCH better rider on turf than the main track. Interesting that he won his last in spite of being off since November. It was a four-way photo that day as the winner was only a neck back – Asphalt! He’s run close in a couple of stakes races, but never won one. Has a flexible running style to press the front runners, or sit off the pace in mid-pack. Another interesting entry in a very interesting race!






































Race 9: Grade 3 The Skip Away Stakes – 1 3/16 miles
5:06 pm For 4-year-olds and older – Purse: $100,000

1-Drosselmeyer Jky: G.Gomez (--) Trn: B.Mott ( 8%)
Well, now this is a horse of a different color, as they say in Oz. Recognize his name? The Triple Crown is made up of, obviously, the Kentucky Derby, the Preakness, and “the test of champions” the 1 ½ mile Belmont Stakes. Last spring the winner of the Belmont…..Drosselmeyer! And he started that championship season with a win HERE going 1 1/8 miles. We know he can get the distance, and he has one of the nation’s best trainers in Bill Mott with the leading jockey – Garrett Gomez. Mott is excellent at pointing a horse towards a target and meeting that target. My guess is that Mott’s goal is NOT to win the Skip Away Stakes as a major accomplishment of the 2011 season. However, Mott would have been even less inclined to push Drosselmeyer to win his first start since last June – which was when he showed up a month ago in the Challenger Stakes at Tampa going only 1 1/16th mile. Today he gets a better distance, he has a race under his belt, and he is more than capable of winning this with a less than 100% effort. I would guess that Mott sees this race as a confidence builder for a bigger race later this spring.

2-Moe Man Jky: J.Bravo (16%) Trn: I.Wilkes ( 2%)
He took 8 starts to break his maiden, but came right back to win in allowance company. Since then he’s fallen four consecutive times – including his last, his lone stakes effort – when 6th beaten over ten lengths in the Challenger Stakes at Tampa where Drosselmeyer made his 2011 debut. Well, he has a very clever name….

3-Our Dark Knight Jky: J.Castellano (17%) Trn: N.Zito (15%)
A quality runner – when facing allowance company. He consistently runs speed figures that makes him competitive in stakes company. He’s been in six stakes: 2nd, 7th, 2nd, 3rd, 2nd, and 8th. The two off-the-board finishes were his lone efforts in graded company. In today’s Grade 3 he is a fringe player at best. Never been this far before, and his penchant for losing ground through the stretch at this level at shorter distances does not bode well for his chances. He does have front running ability however, and he could try to steal this one on the front – and could prove a brave front-runner if left alone if the pace is slow enough.

4-Colizeo Jky: R.Dominguez (30%) Trn: T.Pletcher (27%)
The aforementioned Challenger Stakes at Tampa was his last start, and he was the winner (with my double-investment ticket!). He runs close to the pace, and if able to handle today’s marathon distance he’d be very dangerous. He is most likely going to be the public choice as the favorite, but I have some questions. He’s a very talented colt, but he’s never been beyond 9 furlongs, so today’s race is a bit of a stretch. The one time he won at 1 1/8 mile came here – so that’s good. He’s been ridden by both Garrett Gomez and John Velazquez in the past – so why is Pletcher going with Dominguez (to be fair, Ramon Dominguez won the Eclipse Award as top rider in 2010, and has ridden Colizeo before). Still…..

5-Ron the Greek Jky: J.Velazquez (19%) Trn: T.Albertrani ( 3%)
An upset winner in the 3-year-old Derby prep LeCompte last season, he’s gone winless since. Never been this far before, and he was a soundly, WELL BEATEN 6th in his last here in the Grade 1 Donn. You will get a big price on a horse ridden by a top rider if you pick him.

6-Gabriel’s Hill Jky: A.Garcia (17%) Trn: S.Benzel (15%)
Well, you’ll know him early as he is a front-runnin’ fool! And he has some quality to him as he led the Grade 3 Breeders’ Cup Marathon from the gate to mid-stretch this past November at 25-1, and held on for third. Never been a stakes winner before, but often in the money. You could do worse for a longshot to run second or third. Probably a good selection to pick up some points in the 2nd or 3rd slot – but don’t count on him winning…..you never know though!

7-King Ghidorah Jky: C.Velasquez (20%) Trn: B.Parboo ( 6%)
As recent as last September he was running in starter allowance company for a $12K tag – and today he is in a $100K stakes event? He was a good second in starter allowance to the highly regarded S.S. Stone in his last; but like many others in here he’s never been this far, and has been well beaten when trying stakes company.



8-Jardim Jky: P.Lopez (19%) Trn: E.Caramori (17%)
Four back he was second in much lesser allowance company at Indiana Downs (a much lower quality track). But he did win a stakes race – in the slop at Hoosier Downs (again, a minor league track compared to Gulfstream). Off that win he was a well beaten 6th at Zia Park – where’s that? Even I don’t know! I think it’s in New Mexico! He surprised most when running second to Colizeo (and beating Drosselmeyer) in the Challenger in his last.

10-S.S. Stone Jky: J.Leparoux (12%) Trn: N.Zito (15%)
He’s the “feel good” story of the winter. He showed up at Calder off a 4 month break from California and was well beaten. His first start at Gulfstream in January was for horses who had NEVER won 2 races in their life, and he was a very impressive winner, rallying from off the pace. He made a huge jump to allowance company in his next and drew off with authority. He dropped back to starter allowance company and was easily best that day, his last. He’s now won three races in row with speed figures (95-96-94) that say he can be competitive in here. He is ambitiously placed today, but he projects to get a nice stalking trip outside the front-runners, and if his confidence can carry him past the front-runners, and if the finishers (especially Drosselmeyer) are not up to the task, he could continue his Cinderella run today.

11-Jackson Bend Jky: J.Sanchez Trn: S.Gold
In December 2009 he was my two-year-old champion and looked to be a solid Kentucky Derby candidate in spite of coming from Calder. However between the end of his two-year old season and the beginning of his three-year old season he was privately purchased and sent away from South Florida trainer Stanley Gold (and his only rider he’d ever known, Jeffrey Sanchez) to the national barn of Nick Zito. He never fulfilled his potential – but he often flashed it, such as a bad trip, bad luck third by less than one length in the Preakness (2nd leg of the Triple Crown) when Lookin’ At Lucky began his 3-year old championship run. But he was well beaten in his next three, and his new owners sent him back to trainer Gold, who reunited him with his old jockey Sanchez. They appeared here March 12 in the Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Handicap. He made a serious move on the far turn but was fanned exceptionally wide – yet, he re-rallied to only be beaten two lengths – and this was after stumbling at the start. He looks to improve today, and will probably be overlooked in the wagering. His best race of his career – the narrow loss in the Preakness – came at the distance of…. 1 3/16th mile. If able to overcome the outside post and get a slot about 4 back of the leaders heading into the first turn Jackson Bend could be a dangerous runner at a very nice price. SURPRISE PACKAGE! Look out……don’t say I didn’t tell you!!!





























Race 10: Grade 1 Florida Derby – 1 1/8 miles
5:42 pm For 3-year-olds – Purse: $100,000,000

1-Soldat Jky: A.Garcia (17%) Trn: K.McLaughlin (21%)
This guy is highly regarded – not only for the Florida Derby, but he is high on the national lists of Kentucky Derby contenders. But in spite of two very convincing wins, HERE, I am still a skeptic. Go back to his 2-year-old season and you’ll see he broke his maiden in the Grade 3 With Anticipation Stakes at Saratoga – first time going a distance of ground, and first time turf. Obviously his connections must have thought highly of him as a future turf star. He came back to run second as the odds-on favorite I the Grade 3 Pilgrim in spite of hitting the gate at the start and being bumped in the stretch. Off of that effort he ran second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf. But when he debuted this winter he showed up on the main track and romped in allowance company. Many (including me) questioned that big win as it was on a sloppy track (note that often turf runners DO run well on sloppy tracks). So when he showed up in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth I questioned his chances. But on that day earlier on the card a good horse, by the name of Cool Blue Red Hot was running in an allowance race. Now Cool Blue had run 2nd to Soldat on the sloppy track, so I wrote that he’d be a good barometer of Soldat’s chances – if he ran well, he would justify Soldat’s win, a poor effort and my questions remained. Cool Blue Red Hot ran evenly and never threatened – so I was sure Soldat was overrated. But he ran away with the Fountain of Youth. But it is also true that in both the win in the slop and the Fountain of Youth Soldat started in an inside post, skipped to an early and easy lead and was never threatened. Today he draws the rail again, and is sure to head off to the lead. Sorry, I still don’t buy it. If you side with him you will have lots of company as he is sure to be a fan favorite.

2-To Honor and Serve Jky: G.Gomez (--) Trn: B.Mott ( 8%)
He debuted in a Saratoga maiden race – typically this is indicative of a quality colt – and was second to a two-year-old star, Astrology. Came back to dominate a maiden race, the Grade 2 Nashua, and the Grade 2 Remsen to conclude his two-year old campaign. He was high on many racing lists for the Kentucky Derby, so his 3-year-old debut in the Fountain of Youth was highly anticipated. But in the days leading up to this race I read his trainer Bill Mott (well known for pointing towards a goal – see earlier comments) remarked publicly that To Honor and Serve was NOT fully cranked up for that race, and they wanted a “good effort.” He pressed the pace for six furlongs, but faded to third, well beaten by Soldat. Coming off an extended break, going nine furlongs, against a loose-on-the-lead front runner who had racing experience, I thought his effort was solid. And I have every expectation of an improved performance today. He has fired two bullet works since that race (when he runs the fastest workout of the morning – often a sign of an impending good race). My main concern is that often 2-year-old stars come back with big expectations at three, only to disappoint and never reach their juvenile star status. Even though he had excuses in the Fountain of Youth I thought he’d run better. A question mark to me – a big effort today puts him on my Kentucky Derby list, a disappointment today and I’d say he’s a “bet against” in his next several.

3-Arch Traveler Jky: J.Lezcano Trn: J.Jerkens
Arch Traveler was a big-time winner two back to break his maiden and earn a big number going 7 furlongs. He appeared next in a nine furlong test in allowance company, and before the race started it was already being pointed to as being a field of potential Florida Derby starters. He was a narrow winner over a field that since has not proven to be as strong as was anticipated. And in looking back, that big win two back came against Ninja Blade – note my comments on him in regards to Travellin Man in the Swale Stakes. Should Travellin Man win, especially with authority, earlier today I would upgrade Arch Traveler’s chances today. But with his Beyer figure declining to a 76 (off a 90 in the maiden win), I tend to think that he’s overrated.

4-Bowman’s Causeway Jky: P.Lopez (19%) Trn: P.Biancone (17%)
He won a 9 furlong allowance race in mid-February and was a “wise-guy” horse as an up and coming 3-year old star, who might make some noise on Florida Derby Day. He was sent off at 13/1 in the Fountain of Youth and did run 4th. But many (including me) would argue that the field had three good horses, and five others….someone had to run 4th. That opinion seems to be confirmed when off that Grade 2 effort Bowman dropped into an easy allowance race and was third – even more of an indictment is that instead of being a well-bet favorite he was a mild third choice at nearly 4/1. Looks to me like his connections are “hoping” he runs well today……




5-Shackleford Jky: J.Castanon Trn: D.Romans
He broke his maiden in a good race at Churchill Downs in November. He debuted for his 3-year-old season in February against a very highly regarded colt named Caspers Touch. Caspers Touch had a really tough trip that day to be second to Shackleford, so when Casper returned to the track he was a heavy favorite. I remember…..I was there, and invested in him significantly …. Caspers Touch ran poorly, again. He appears to have been a 2-year-old wonder who’s flattened out as a 3-year-old. This tells me that Shackleford’s big win in allowance company (and maiden win) can be overlooked if he is in stakes competition. This would seem to be confirmed when you note he was fifth beaten over 20 lengths in the Fountain of Youth. He would be a surprise today – though I’m sure his connections simply think that Fountain of Youth was an “off day” and expect him to run as he did in those two wins. You never know with three-year-olds…….

6-Stay Thirsty Jky: R.Dominguez Trn: T.Pletcher
To me, how you see the Florida Derby must mirror how you look at Stay Thirsty. He is an interesting study…… He was a dominant winner in his second start for Pletcher with John Velazquez up. In showed up next in the Grade 1 Hopeful. That day everyone was talking about the young superstar Boys At Tosconova. Stay Thirsty was sent off at 9/2 that day and was a good second after giving Boys At Tosconova a run for his money to mid-stretch. Off that 7 furlong runner-up effort Stay Thirsty next appeared in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile against superstar leader of the 3-year-old division, and 2-year-old champion Uncle Mo. He was a non-threatening 5th. But between that November afternoon and early March Stay Thirsty thrived in training. He was sent to the first Kentucky Derby prep in New York, the Grade 3 Gotham – the New York equivalent to the Fountain of Youth – and he was a dominant winner as the 4/5 favorite. Taking all that into consideration, Stay Thirsty appears to be a legitimate contender. But that is NOT the interesting part…..here is where the story gets really good……. You see, Stay Thirsty’s trainer is Todd Pletcher, and his owner is Michael Repole. That may not seem significant to you, but the trainer of superstar Uncle Mo is ….. Todd Pletcher. And he is owned by….. Michael Repole! But wait, it gets better. The reason Stay Thirsty was so highly regarded going into the Gotham was that he was working WITH Uncle Mo and training as well as Uncle Mo. The week after Stay Thirsty dominated the Gotham in New York, Uncle Mo made his 3-year-old debut in a sensational romping effort here at Gulfstream. News leaked out that Repole and Pletcher were considering running Stay Thirsty in the Wood Memorial (the New York version of the Florida Derby, and Uncle Mo’s announced next target) and running Uncle Mo here at Gulfstream in the Florida Derby. To me this made perfect sense. Stay Thirsty was in New York already, and obviously liked the New York track…..Uncle Mo was in Florida and obviously liked the Gulfstream track. Why criss-cross them both to ship to tracks they were unproven over? But here’s Stay Thirsty – and Uncle Mo is in New York awaiting next Saturday’s Wood Memorial. But wait – there’s one more twist…..since coming to Florida Stay Thirsty has been – even admitted by his connections – training without enthusiasm. So much so that Pletcher is putting blinkers on Stay Thirsty today (half-cup like goggles that limit a horse’s vision field to help him focus on racing instead of his fellow runners). So – which Stay Thirsty shows up today? Owner Repole has said he dreams of Stay Thirsty and Uncle Mo finishing in a dead heat at the Kentucky Derby and that an owner is lucky to have one Kentucky Derby contender, much less two. Is Stay Thirsty that good? We’ll see today.

7-Dialed In Jky: J.Leparoux (12%) Trn: N.Zito (15%)
Ahhh, Gulfstream Park – the racing is really tough to beat as there is quality all over the place. Especially in stakes races, and most especially in 3-year-old stakes. Dialed In will be one of the favorites today and he has MANY fans down here. Zito is a popular trainer, and he knows how to get a horse to the winner’s circle the first Saturday in May (Kentucky Derby). Coming off a scintillating win in his debut last fall, he was a highly anticipated runner when making his three-year-old debut in the Grade 3 Holy Bull. I too was curious to see him run, and I was there that day. Dialed In, like many Zito runners, is a “come from the back of the pack” kind of runner, making him dependent on a fast pace. The Holy Bull set up perfectly for his style – two longshots set a fast pace to the top of the stretch and Dialed In came flying through the lane to win in an impressive performance. Many fans began counting the days to the Florida Derby that January afternoon. Where would Dialed In show up in his prep for the Florida Derby. In an unusual move Zito sent him into an allowance race against OLDER horses – a very unusual move. Three-year-old colts rarely take on older until late in the year – it’s like asking a college top twenty football team to take on an NFL team. In spite of these circumstances he was sent off at 1-10 odds (you bet $2.00 and if he wins you get back $2.20). He rallied, but not with the same authority, and was beaten by his stablemate, second. Was it because there wasn’t a fast pace? Was it because he isn’t quite as good as everyone thinks? Perhaps this gives you a clue…..that “scintillating” maiden win….guess who was second that day. Give up? The afore mentioned Ninja Blade – ahh, yes, the horse who just can’t seem to win his maiden. Interesting…..




8-Flashpoint Jky: C.Velasquez (20%) Trn: R.Dutrow (24%)
Flashpoint’s debut was a sensational sprint in near track record time in January in New York earning a very high 91 Beyer speed rating. He shipped to Florida to face winners for the first time, and instead of heading into allowance company he was entered into the Grade 2 Hutcheson Stakes. Ambitious placing to say the least. He dominated that race, earning a exceptional Beyer figure of 102. Because both his races were sprints, and it is always best to bring along a 3-year-old star carefully, it was widely assumed that Flashpoint would next show up in the Swale Stakes today. But earlier this week his connections said they were considering the Florida Derby. I thought it was interesting that the trainer said “I’ll leave the decision to the owners.” This seems to indicate to me that the trainer would have preferred to Swale, but here he is. Coming off front-running sprints, Flashpoint almost virtually assures there will be a hot pace today. This changes the complexion of the race dramatically – in fact should he scratch (the outside post should really compromise his chances, and I wouldn’t be surprised if his connections do scratch out) the race dynamics would change dramatically again. But with Flashpoint in, Soldat will NOT get the easy trip on the lead; and To Honor and Serve will have to be stalking a much quicker pace. All this would set up nicely for Dialed In. But all of this assumes that Flashpoint can’t get the distance. Maybe he is just good enough to take this group on a merry chase, and we haven’t seen the best of him yet?